The Plan
Page 29
Fitzwilliams was not the only one to be secretly pleased to see Brown’s government wriggling on the end of a hook as the country was faced with the bitter choice of less spending in its race to put a semblance of order in public finances, though others, like John Francis, feared the rise of extremism.
In spite of the government’s reassurance the light at the end of the tunnel was in sight, unemployment continued to creep up. The golden age of New Labour had come to a ruinous end and Brown’s only solution was more credit to pay off the country’s debts.
Paradoxically, as the nation was staggered under its crippling burden, banks, the Irish Netherlands included, were already forecasting year end profits and calculating bonuses. How could banks have recovered so easily when the country’s economy lurched into an ever deeper crisis?
Francis scoured the media daily fearing he would discover the kind of spark he dreaded, one that would light the fire of revolt and social collapse. Stock market had rebounded, but news on the economic front was still sombre and its effects increasingly felt by the average Briton, each passing day brought new pain as the number of personal insolvencies rose.
The risks provoked by sudden and deep crises were great; the consequences of the depression of the twenties and thirties provided sufficient evidence for that, and in addition to economic collapse it was accompanied by profound political change.
The attitude of politicians and bankers reminded Francis of Marie Antoinette’s supposed réplique: qu’ils mangent de la brioche, echoed in modern terms by a successful business friend of Nicolas Sarkozy, who quipped, not owning a Rolex by the age of fifty was the sign of failure. It was another sign of how the rift between leaders and voters was growing.
Extremism fed on economic misery and it was only a question of time before protectionism and nationalism reared their ugly heads again. The bad news came when it became clear the British Nationalist Party would be elected to the European Parliament. It had won over forty percent of the vote in Swanley, Kent, where the Labour vote collapsed, giving the extreme right wing party its first break through in England’s south-east.
Labour’s collapse was no less than the cry of a desperate electorate as Gordon Brown plumbed new depths of political credibility as he thrashed about trying to fend off disaster, ploughing taxpayers money into the very same banks that had imperilled Britain’s future.
Extremists gained ground as the historic working class of British cities, towns and villages disappeared, or were pushed into the Third World, replaced by apolitical immigrants. It was little wonder the BNP won votes when it declared it was going to put Britons at the top of housing list.
In 1928, the Nazis had won only two percent of German vote; five years later as the depression reached its peak, Hitler came to power in a totally unpredictable breakthrough. Economic strife always led to extremism and in Britain, as Gordon Brown was caught in a quagmire of his own making, voters found themselves torn between fear and reason.
Across Europe the pressure was building up and it was only a question of time before the UK gave in to the call of extremist movements of all stripes as the economy faltered and politicians turned the pointing finger towards Europe: a welcome scapegoat that certain were transforming into an image of pettifogging Eurocrats.
Voicing his fears Francis told Tom Barton: ‘If we compare the present situation to the thirties we’d be looking at the point when markets had fallen by fifty percent, then a further sixty, before they finally starting to rise again. It was not until 1955, twenty six years later, markets returned to their 1929 level.’
‘What does that mean for the investor?’
‘Well assuming you didn’t lose your shirt in the present crash, and hoping we’re not looking at the same scenario as that of the thirties, it’ll soon be a very good time to invest as the market can only go up.’
‘Maybe I should do something else with my money, because if things don’t work out, it could take years to get back to the 2007 level, according to your theory.’
‘Put your money into the good banks and good businesses.’
‘Good banks?’
‘I don’t mean morally good, I mean sound banks, those that will survive.’
Sound, Barton thought to himself, wondering if that included the Irish Netherlands.
‘Yes, assuming the survivors will thrive.’
‘Like Ford?’
‘No, but perhaps Google or Microsoft, or new players.’
‘I suppose so,’ Barton said thinking of Tarasov. ‘What about Bloomberg.’
‘It’s a partnership ― no shares.’
‘Too bad. Maybe Japan would be a good bet?
‘No, last month their imports and exports experienced the biggest crash since 1957, as for the Nikkei it’s almost dead. Try China.’
Chapter 29 WIMBLEDON