Also by the Authors
Gavin de Becker
The Gift of Fear
Protecting the Gift
Fear Less
Tom Taylor
Dodging Bullets
Mortal Shield
JUST 2 SECONDS
USING TIME AND SPACE TO DEFEAT ASSASSINS
AND OTHER ADVERSARIES
With a Compendium of Attacks
Against At-risk Persons
Gavin de Becker
Tom Taylor and Jeff Marquart
Copyright (c) 2008 Gavin de Becker, Tom Taylor, and Jeff Marquart
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means, including information storage and retrieval systems, without permission in writing from the publisher, except by reviewer who may quote brief passages in a review.
The Gavin de Becker Center for the Study and Reduction of Violence
a not-for-profit foundation
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Studio City, CA 91604
The publisher has made every practical attempt to contact and credit holders of copyrighted material used in this book. Any oversights should be brought to the attention of the authors, and will be corrected in subsequent editions.
First Edition
ISBN 978-0-615-21447-4
Book design and all illustrations by Geoff Towle, Incubox Creative
PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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For each protector at Gavin de Becker &
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commitment to excellence. And for those who
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We commit to re-earn it every day.
Contents
Now
Time
Mind
Space
See
The Compendium
Appendices
APPENDIX 1: A Letter That Can Be Provided to Your Protectee
APPENDIX 2: Pie Attacks on Public Figures and Executives
APPENDIX 3: The Decision to Use Violence
APPENDIX 4: Public Posture on Security
APPENDIX 5: Guidelines for Handling of Inappropriate Communications
APPENDIX 6: An introduction to Threat Assessment and Management
APPENDIX 7: Ten Agreements for Hired Drivers/Chauffeurs
APPENDIX 8: Interview with Gavin de Becker
APPENDIX 9: Security Firm Standards
APPENDIX 10: Boyd's Cycle -- OODA Cycle
APPENDIX 11: Can a Determined Assassin be Stopped?
APPENDIX 12: Col Dave Grossman on Sheep, Wolves, and Sheepdogs
APPENDIX 13: MOSAIC for Assessment of Public-figure Pursuit
APPENDIX 14: Advantages of Private Aircraft Over Commercial Aircraft
APPENDIX 15: About Gavin de Becker & Associates
Selected Bibliography & Web Sites
Acknowledgements
About the Authors
The Compendium Contents
THE COMPENDIUM DESCRIBED
Notes on the Compendium Categories
CONCLUSIONS Arising from Analysis of the Statistics
SECTION 1: Intentional Harm
1A. Successful Attacks within the U.S.
1B. Successful Attacks outside the U.S.
1C. Unsuccessful Attacks within the U.S.
1D. Unsuccessful Attacks outside the U.S.
1E. Failed, Aborted, Prevented Incidents Worldwide
1F. Kidnapping
SECTION 2: Unintentional Harm
2A. Accidents
2B. Sudden Illness/Medical Emergency
2C. Wrong Place/Wrong Time/Wrong Associations
SECTION 3: Embarrassing Incidents
3A. Pie Attacks and Other Thrown Objects
3B. Pests, Protesters, and Pranksters
3C. Self-inflicted Wounds
SECTION 4: Attacks Against U.S. Presidents
SECTION 5: incidents Added After Analysis
Think of every assassination you've ever heard about.
For most people, a few of these major ones come to mind: Caesar, Abraham Lincoln, John Kennedy, Martin Luther King, Mahatma Gandhi, Indira Gandhi, Anwar Sadat, John Lennon, Israel's Prime Minister Rabin, Pakistan's Benazir Bhutto. From start to finish, all of these attacks -- combined -- took place in less than one minute. And the hundreds of attacks studied for this book, all of them combined, took place in less than a half-hour. Those thirty minutes, surely the most influential in world history, offer important insights that can help today's protectors defeat tomorrow's attackers.
"Sever the edge between before and after."
Takuan Soho, Zen Master, author of The Unfettered Mind, 1600
Now Chapter 1
This is not the time for thinking. This is not the time for planning. This is the time for action. It is 2:25 PM on March 30, 1981, and the system of Presidential appearances is chugging along just fine, at least by all appearances. A group of people behind a slender cordon is waiting to see President Reagan walk to his car. Some are waiting to get a closer look at him, some are waiting to photograph him, others are waiting to call out questions, and one is waiting to kill him.
The media reporters and technicians are part of the system of Presidential appearances. Political promoters like them to be close, protectors like them to be far away, and presidents don't like them at all. Nonetheless, they are part of the system, and this afternoon, they are helping to conceal John Hinckley, who is not part of the system. Not yet anyway.
In a second or two, Hinckley's actions will cause the system's gears to grind as they try to digest something new: bullets. The assailant has six bullets in his handgun, and he's about to fire them all. When this happens, some people will flinch and duck, some will fall, others will stand tall. John Hinckley will become part of the system, his quality-control test improving it in the long run, but having terrible consequences in the short run.
The President walks out of the hotel. Though Hinckley glimpses him for just an instant, he draws the gun and begins firing. At the sound of the first gunshot, nobody standing on the sidewalk of the Washington Hilton Hotel recognizes what is happening -- nobody other than Hinckley, that is. For some, it takes another shot and seeing people fall. For others, it will take all six shots to call their minds into this moment.
Since the attack began and ended in less than two seconds, it's easy to understand how some people who were right there had no idea what had happened until afterwards. Just two seconds, and the shooting was over. This book is entirely about those tiny fractions of time. These pages do not explore the planning that precedes attacks, the rationale behind them, the nature of conspiracy, the social and cultural conditions that foment them, or the psychology of attackers -- all important topics that have been addressed in other books. We are concerned here only with events at the scene of the attack, during the attack.
There are many disciplines that break events down to their elements. When judging a guitar, for example, experts listen for four things in particular, described by the term ASDR:
Attack (the first sound that comes from the instrument when a note is played), Sustain (how long the instrument body holds the pure sound of the note), Decay (how long it takes the sound to die), and Release (the end of the sound).
Our scrutiny must be as precise, given the stakes. Were t
his a book for pilots, it would be about crashes and near-crashes, not about routine flight, aircraft maintenance, nor navigation. Instead, it would explore the lessons that present themselves from the moment an aircraft comes out of stable flight until the moment the incident ends -- such incidents always ending in one of two ways: The pilot regains control, or the aircraft crashes.
The moment protective operations come out of stable flight is usually marked by the sound of gunfire. In most of the hundreds of incidents we studied, that sound is what led protectors to know an attack had commenced.
However, there's an event before the sound of gunfire that actually marks the start of an attack: the Moment of Commitment. That's the instant in which an assailant first takes an obvious action likely to reveal intent, an action from which he cannot easily retreat. It might be his bringing a gun into view, or pushing forward through the crowd, jumping onto the stage, or raising his arm with a knife, but whatever it is, he knows he's not likely going home when his act is over. It is this Moment of Commitment that starts the clock on a critical race between safety and lethality.
Sometime (i.e., some time) after the Moment of Commitment comes the Moment of Recognition. This is the instant when protectors get their minds around what is happening, a prerequisite to getting their arms around what is happening -- and more significantly, getting their arms around the assailant or the protectee. Watch the videos and films of attacks and the Moment of Recognition is unmistakable. You will see a powerful energy bolt through everyone present. The target freezes and recoils, the bodyguards and the attacker begin an awkward and disturbing ballet, onlookers surge forward to see, then backward to survive. A chorus of screams and gasps is heard long after the violence has stopped.
The extensive study undertaken for this book has produced many insights, the most striking of which is also the simplest:
From the Moment of Commitment onward, the overwhelming majority of public figure attacks are over in less than five seconds. Within just those few seconds, all the damage that will be done has been done.
The five-second statistic could be discouraging to protectors, because it grants them very little time to respond effectively. However, embedded within that five-second statistic is one of the most encouraging lessons we learned:
Attackers are even more handicapped by the speeding clock than are protectors.
Just as an attacker benefits from the narrowness of time in which protectors can respond, so do protectors benefit from the ever-narrowing time the attacker has to complete his act.
For an attacker like Hinckley, the choice to bring a handgun into play carries an enormous and immediate consequence: Where time served him before he revealed the gun, afterwards, it begins to enslave him. The gun he wields as a weapon can also be seen as the starting pistol for a race. From the moment he introduces it, he is fighting time, and hopefully (for our purposes), he is fighting capable protectors.
Given such a small window of time, if the Moment of Recognition is moved forward by even a fraction of a second, allowing a protector to respond during that gained time, the odds of survival increase profoundly. You are about to learn concepts that can prepare your mind to reach the Moment of Recognition sooner.
Attackers have plenty of time before the Moment of Commitment, but from that instant onwards they have almost no time at all. The asset of surprise cannot sustain its value for it's spent entirely in a flash. After that flash, most attackers rely so heavily upon speed that it quickly becomes their greatest weakness. Speed is an enemy of accuracy and composure -- both necessary components of successful attacks. If the presence of protectors doesn't deter an attack, protective strategies can at least compel an attacker to rush.
Those intending assassination have some advantages over their targets, but many more factors work against them than for them. Thousands of opportunities exist for them to fail, and only one slender opportunity exists for them to succeed. Often, both literally and figuratively, assassins have one shot at success -- and they know this. Accordingly, though assassination might be seen as a reckless act, it is rarely committed recklessly.
There's a popular belief that attackers have the advantage, even over sophisticated protective operations, because they can choose when to attack. In reality, however, most attackers do not get to choose precisely when to attack. They may select the date or the general period, but the timing that really matters -- the Moment of Commitment -- is dictated and stimulated by events attackers rarely control: When does the target come into view or into the killing zone? How long will he remain there? When is the target nearest? Are protectors close to the attacker? Are protectors focused on the attacker? Are bystanders focused on the attacker? Is the target moving or stationary? When is the space between attacker and target most free of obstructions? Is this instant the best moment for attack, or this one... or will there be a better one if I wait?
Effective protective strategies can influence how an attacker answers these questions, and often, more often than we know, the answers cause him to delay, postpone, or even cancel his plans. Though history offers many examples of attackers who aborted their attempts, this book focuses on those who acted on their plans -- and on the few seconds it took them to do so.
It's About Time
The cases in the Compendium show the number of attacks that happened in the daytime versus at night, and how many were political versus personal -- but such information is not useful for our purposes here. If you know, for example, that 70% of past attacks occurred in the daytime, it doesn't mean you give 30% less attention or preparation during the night. Similarly, knowing that 75% of all assassins were mentally ill does not have much value to a bodyguard intercepting someone who suddenly charges through a crowd. There is no time for mental health diagnosis, and the bodyguard must not ignore people just because they appear sane or reasonable, nor focus only on those who appear deranged.
Some statistics, however, can be useful to protectors. For example, knowing that most attacks are launched from within 25 feet of the target can encourage protectors to focus most of their attention and resources on the close range, rather than watching only for snipers on distant rooftops.
The Compendium cases offer other useful insights:
In the U.S., attacks are most likely to be undertaken by lone assailants (87% of the time). Outside the U.S., attacks are most likely committed by multiple assailants (71%).
Attacks in the U.S. are about as likely to be indoors as outdoors (53% versus 47%). Outside the U.S., they are far more likely to occur outdoors (80%).
Firearms are the most likely weapons of attack (71%).
In the U.S., handguns are more than twice as likely to be used than long guns (51% handguns, 20% long guns). Outside the U.S., the reverse is true.
Attacks in the U.S. are most likely to be at close range, less than 25 feet (81%). Only 19% occurred at more than 25 feet, the longest range being 263 feet. Outside the U.S., even though long guns are used twice as often, most attacks still occur at close range (70%). Combining this fact with the less effective emergency care found in most other countries, it's not surprising that attacks outside the U.S. are more likely to be lethal.
Bombs succeed at killing intended targets only slightly more often than they fail (57% of the time).
The most dangerous place to be is in or around the protectee's car. Sixty-four percent of attacks happen when the protected person is in or around the car, and these attacks succeed an astonishing 77% of the time.
Not all targets chose to have protectors, however when attacks were unsuccessful, protector action was the reason about 57% of the time. History is giving a strong endorsement for at-risk people to have protectors!
While this information has value for developing protective strategies, once an attack has commenced, almost all knowledge becomes useless mental clutter.
Perhaps the single most valuable thing a protector could know is when future attacks will happen -- and that we do know, precisely:
One hundred percent of all attacks happen at exactly the same time: Now.
The only time anything can happen is in the present moment. Everything else is a memory (the past) or a fantasy (the future), and nothing in the past or future can hurt your protectee. An attacker's Moment of Commitment is always in the Now, and if you hope to meet him there, you too must be in the Now. Focusing attention on the Now is the surest way to be present and ready in the event of an attack, literally to be in the event, and not just a bystander watching events unfold.
To be present at the location is one thing, but to be there in time is the central issue of this book. You could place yourself in the perfect position for foiling an attack (many bodyguards have), and yet if you are not present in the moment, pre-sent as it were, your body being there is not likely to be of constructive consequence.
Preparing to Be Present
Professional protectors already know a lot about maintaining physical readiness, but it's the mind that must first be properly prepared, the mind that controls the hands, arms, eyes, and ears. There are strategies available to help prepare warriors, based upon knowing how the body responds to lethal combat, what happens to your blood flow, your muscles, judgment, memory, vision, and your hearing when someone is trying to kill you. Police officers, soldiers, and protectors can learn how to keep going even if shot, and how to prepare the mind and body for survival instead of defeat. This is much more than mere information; the knowledge itself can be a kind of armor.[?]
Just as a computer functions best when loaded with accurate and relevant data, we encourage protectors to mentally download the information in this book. Getting the strategies into practice begins with getting them into your mind.
Speaking of the mind, imagine for a moment that your mind is a time machine able to take you into the past or the future. Now realize that you need not imagine this at all, because your mind is a time machine, one that almost always takes you out of the present moment. You might have enjoyable or even useful journeys, but while you're on them, you cannot truly be in the present.
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