Denial kills you twice. It kills you once, at your moment of truth when you are not physically prepared: you didn't bring your gun, you didn't train. Your only defense was wishful thinking. Hope is not a strategy. Denial kills you a second time because even if you do physically survive, you are psychologically shattered by your fear helplessness and horror at your moment of truth.
Gavin de Becker puts it like this in Fear Less, his superb post-9/11 book, which should be required reading for anyone trying to come to terms with our current world situation: "... denial can be seductive, but it has an insidious side effect. For all the peace of mind deniers think they get by saying it isn't so, the fall they take when faced with new violence is all the more unsettling." Denial is a save-now-pay-later scheme, a contract written entirely in small print, for in the long run, the denying person knows the truth on some level.
And so the warrior must strive to confront denial in all aspects of his life, and prepare himself for the day when evil comes. If you are warrior who is legally authorized to carry a weapon and you step outside without that weapon, then you become a sheep, pretending that the bad man will not come today. No one can be "on" 24/7, for a lifetime. Everyone needs down time. But if you are authorized to carry a weapon, and you walk outside without it, just take a deep breath, and say this to yourself...
"Baa."
This business of being a sheep or a sheep dog is not a yes-no dichotomy. It is not an all-or-nothing, either-or choice. It is a matter of degrees, a continuum. On one end is an abject, head-in-the-sand-sheep and on the other end is the ultimate warrior. Few people exist completely on one end or the other. Most of us live somewhere in between. Since 9-11 almost everyone in America took a step up that continuum, away from denial. The sheep took a few steps toward accepting and appreciating their warriors, and the warriors started taking their job more seriously. The degree to which you move up that continuum, away from sheephood and denial, is the degree to which you and your loved ones will survive, physically and psychologically at your moment of truth.
Appendix 13
MAPP-MOSAIC for Assessment of Public-figure Pursuit, Circa 1997
by Lieutenant Thomas A. Taylor, Missouri State Highway Patrol, President, National Governor's Security Association: 1994-1997
An Innovative Approach to Threat Assessment
We are all dangerous. Everyone is capable of great violence at a moment's notice, under the right conditions, and in the absence of inhibitors. Law enforcement officers are expected to assess dangerous situations everyday. They are called upon to assess the value of threats and level of risk present in situations involving domestic violence, workplace violence, and public figure protection situations.
The protection of public figures consists of two interrelated functions. The first, to provide a ring of physical protection around the public figure to guard against intentional harm. This ring of security is usually obvious to the observer, consisting of bodyguards, fenced compounds, metal detectors, and armored vehicles. There is another, less observable, function to protection that is just as important -- if not more so. That is the threat assessment function. Threat assessment and management involves the investigation and analysis of situations and individuals that may pose a threat to a person in public or private life. It includes strategies for monitoring, controlling, and redirecting the interest of the pursuer. The ultimate goal of an effective threat assessment and management process is to identify and stop a person with hostile intentions before putting the public figure at risk.
An exciting threat assessment methodology emerged nearly twenty years ago with the development of the MOSAIC threat assessment system by Gavin de Becker and Associates, a California-based security consulting firm.
Today, after many enhancements, MOSAIC is an important part of the threat management programs for the state police agencies protecting a dozen governors, the twenty-five leading university police departments, the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department, the United States Supreme Court Police, the United States Marshals Service, the United States Capitol Police, the Federal Reserve Board, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and the Central Intelligence Agency. After a decade of one version of MOSAIC for the assessment of threats to public figures, a totally revised version called MAPP has been made available to law enforcement agencies. Here is a review of MAPP, the MOSAIC for the Assessment of Public-figure Pursuit.
What is MAPP?
MAPP is a threat assessment method, part of which is computer-assisted. It is not a computer program or database for storing information. It is to the threat assessor what a word processor is to an author. The word processor doesn't write the book, but it aids the author in doing so. MAPP is an advanced system that brings insight and organization to assessments of people who came to attention as being among those who might attempt inappropriate encounters. It is not a profiling tool or a crystal ball to predict the future. In fact, it is the opposite of profiling. Profiles are often collections of demographic factors. MAPP is never concerned with such things as race, appearance, socioeconomic level, or gender. MAPP explores only behavior and circumstance. MAPP explores literally hundreds of factors, circumstances, behaviors, elements of communications, and aspects of a situation. MAPP evaluates situations, not people. It does not characterize someone as "dangerous," a vague and misleading term. Neither the word nor the concept appears within MOSAIC systems.
MAPP Start-Up
MAPP is a Windows-based, easy-to-use system, requiring only a basic understanding of computer operations. A first-time user will be taught the system through an on-line academy, which thoroughly explains assessment strategies and the operation of MAPP. This process takes about twenty minutes. Upon completion, you will be assigned a password to by-pass the academy in subsequent sessions. There is a refresher course for those who are just getting started or haven't used MOSAIC in awhile.
MAPP Template
The next decision you must make is which MOSAIC template to select. This article is a review of only the MAPP system for public figure threats, but there are MOSAIC systems to cover a number of other situations, including domestic violence, threats by students (both pre-college and university age), and workplace violence.
Let's say that you want to assess a situation in which a man has threatened to kill the governor. The MAPP template contains twenty-nine areas of inquiry, and offers a range of one hundred and twenty possible answers or cells (see Figure 1). You move down each line, selecting the cell that most closely describes your situation. For example, one line inquires, "Has the pursuer recently experienced stressful life events?" The inquiry thoroughly defines stressful life events, and offers a range of five possible answers, from "no," to "within the past 30 days." Other lines inquire about weapons, the nature of the threat, mental health history, location, travel, employment, financial status, police record, and residency.
This systematic approach to an assessment insures a consistent and thorough evaluation in each and every case. The threat to the city councilman is given the same consideration as the one received by the governor. The inappropriate love letter from a fan to a celebrity is placed on the same scale as the death threat to the mayor. As you move the cursor over each cell, pop-up text appears which explains the cell in more detail, as well as the premise of the question. Once the appropriate cell is selected, a detailed cell information screen appears (see Figure 2). Here, you can merely confirm the cell selection, add custom text which will appear in your finished report, or access the resource material to explore the question or get an expert's opinion.
MAPP Features
One of the most impressive features included in the MAPP system is a compilation of resource material about public figure threats (see Figure 3). This collection covers twenty-eight topics, including extensive databases of attacks on public figures, as well as terrorist and extremist threat anniversary dates. Also included is a video library, containing twenty interviews and comments by experts in the field (see Figure 4). Unli
ke a library where you must search through shelves of books for information, MAPP's reference material is available at the touch of a button at the precise point in the process where it is needed. MAPP also contains a topic index, containing a helpful list of inquiries, an extensive help menu, and the ability to display all the questions in a list format (see Figure 5). There is more than 500 pages of resource material available to the user.
MAPP Finished Report
Once you have selected as many cells as possible with the information available, MAPP will automatically produce a finished report in seconds with just a push of the button (see Figure 6).
MOSAIC evaluates the information you enter by comparing it to the opinions of expert practitioners, relevant research, and similar cases where the outcomes are known. This internal evaluation is expressed in a rating on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being assigned to cases that have the highest number of factors experts associate with escalation (see Figure 7).
While the assessor must evaluate accuracy, MOSAIC measures the amount and value of information, and expresses the results by "IQ" (Information Quotient). MOSAIC assigns Completion Points to express the quality of an assessment, with a maximum of 200 points. With most MOSAIC systems, at least 125 Completion Points are needed for quality assessment. MAPP even tells you which aspects of your case need further attention. Put in simple terms, the more you know, the better -but information is not equal. Some kinds of facts are more important to an assessment than others. The fact that the governor's pursuer bought a weapon last week and visited the Capitol is more important than the pursuer's age. A Completeness Scale at the top of your template will indicate how much of the assessment has been completed. A person familiar with the case can complete a MAPP assessment in about ten minutes, and have an impressive, comprehensive report in just minutes.
MAPP Accuracy
It is important to note that any assessment is a "snapshot" in time. As situations change, so will the need to reassess the new situation. MAPP seeks to recognize risk in situations, not to identify so-called "dangerous" people. It is a system designed to enhance high-stakes assessments and to contribute to people's welfare and safety. MAPP does not and cannot replace the user's skill, intuition, or decision-making responsibility. It is diagnostic only, and does not suggest or prescribe any case-management plans. While MAPP doesn't make predictions, it can and does substantially improve the predictions that you must occasionally make. It does so by recognizing expert opinion, relevant research, and case histories. Only through the measurement of the potential threat to and vulnerability of a public figure, can you most effectively stop targeted violence before it puts the public figure in immediate risk.
In 1996, the Secret Service interviewed Russell Weston after he made paranoid accusations about President Clinton. While they found that he had a history of mental problems, had access to weapons, and held many bizarre delusions, their assessment concluded that he posed no immediate threat to the president. This proved to be an accurate prediction for their situation at the time, but it did not apply to other potential targets for Weston as time progressed. Two years later, he shot his way into the U.S. Capitol Building, killing two Capitol Police officers and wounding a tourist.
In the end, MAPP does four very important things: it documents the issues that were evaluated or considered in your case, it informs and confirms your intuition, it prepares a comprehensive report written in language non-experts can understand, and it provides on-going interactive training. When you are tasked with the protection of public figures, no other aspect of a security program is more important than accurately assessing and managing safety hazards. Due to the high stakes of violence by individuals, accurate threat assessments are more needed now than at any time in our history.
Figure 1: The Template Cells (4 of the 40+ Areas of Inquiry in MAPP)
Figure 2: Detailed Cell View.
Figure 3: Resource Material
Figure 4: Video Library
Figure 5: All Questions View
Figure 6: Preparing Final Report
Figure 7: Finished Report View
The Development Team, MOSAIC for Assessment of Public-figure Pursuit (MAPP)
Gavin de Becker
Captain Robert J. Martin served 28 years with the Los Angeles Police Department before becoming Vice President of Gavin de Becker & Associates. During his law enforcement career Captain Martin served as Commanding Officer of a number of specialized detective divisions, including Commanding Officer of Detective Headquarters Division. In 1990, he founded the LAPD's Threat Management Unit, the first of its kind in the nation and is a founding member of the Association of Threat Assessment Professionals. Captain Martin pioneered the first police use of the MOSAIC system used for evaluating threats to public figures, and became a lead developer for all of the systems that followed.
Lieutenant Thomas A. Taylor
Sergeant Stephen W. Weston, Esq. is a 23-year veteran of California law enforcement. Since 1991, he has been the supervisor of a specialized unit with the California Highway Patrol, which is responsible for the investigation of threats against California State officials and judges. This unit assesses inappropriate contact with state officials to determine the approach/threat capability of the involved individual and intervenes when necessary.
Andrew L. Vita was the Assistant Director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco & Firearms until his retirement in 2000. Mr. Vita has 30 years of law enforcement experience from criminal investigator through the executive level. He directed all field and headquarter activity/personnel to implement the mission of ATF. In 2001, he became Executive Vice President of Armor Holdings, Incorporated.
Frederick S. "Ted" Calhoun has written four books on various aspects of threat management. During the 1990s, he served as the principal architect in designing the threat management process used by the United States Marshals Service in protecting federal jurists. More recently, Mr. Calhoun helped craft the architectural courthouse security guidelines for Ontario, Canada, courthouses and designed the process for conducting building threat assessments on Ontario courts. Mr. Calhoun is also the national Program Manager for the Transportation Security Administration's Workplace Violence Prevention Program.
Chief James A. Perrotti has been a member of the Yale University Police Department since 1973 serving in the capacity of Patrol Officer, Detective, Sergeant, Commander, Assistant Chief, and now Chief of Police. Chief Perrotti possesses a Bachelor of Science degree in Criminal Justice, and is a graduate of the New Haven Police Academy and the FBI National Academy. Chief Perrotti is responsible for managing a full service police agency of 80 sworn officers and 20 civilian staff. He has been a MOSAIC user since 1994.
Dr. James McGee was the Director of Psychology and Director of Law Enforcement and Forensic Services at Sheppard Pratt Hospital in Baltimore, Maryland. He is Chief Psychologist of the Baltimore County Police Department and he directs the Critical Incident Response Program for the Maryland State Police. Dr. McGee is a graduate of the Federal Bureau of Investigation's (FBI) Basic and Advanced Hostage Negotiations Training Program and he is a special consultant to the FBI's Critical Incident Response Group.
Stephen R. Morrow was the Director of National Investigations and lead the Bank One Corporation's Violence-Free Workplace Committee, composed of representatives from the Corporate Legal, Corporate Human Resources and Corporate Security departments. He was instrumental in designing and implementing the Violence-Free Workplace Program for Bank One Corporation, which has 92,000 employees and over 2000 locations nationwide. Since the inception of the Program, Mr. Morrow directed the response to hundred's of situations involving potential violence in the workplace. He is now with JP Morgan-Chase.
Anthony Stanley is a member of the Security Operations Center for the Central Intelligence Agency.
Special Agent William Zimmerman is a key member of the threat assessment unit of the United States Capitol Police.
Matthew D. Slatoff is a Project Manage
r in the MOSAIC Threat Assessment Systems & Advanced Training division of Gavin de Becker & Associates. He has assisted with the development of the MOSAIC for the Assessment of Domestic Violence for the State of California (CAL-DV), MOSAIC for the Assessment of School Violence (MAST and MAST-U) and MOSAIC for the Assessment of Violence in the Workplace (MAT-W). Mr. Slatoff is currently Director of Gavin de Becker & Associates' Threat Assessment and Management Division.
Appendix 14
Advantages of Private Aircraft Over Commercial Aircraft
Declaration Regarding Benefits of Private Air Travel
Gavin de Becker, being duly sworn, declares and says:
1. For thirty years, I have been a consultant on the prediction of violence and prevention of violence. My services are provided through Gavin de Becker & Associates, a two-hundred-and-fifty person firm. My office advises clients on the assessment and management of situations that may pose a hazard to their safety or privacy. As a consultant to many major media figures, government agencies, and Fortune-500 companies, I have overseen the assessment and management of more than 36,000 cases of inappropriate pursuit. My firm maintains the world's largest library of threatening and obsessive communications, consisting of more than 400,000 pieces of material.
2. My book The Gift of Fear addresses violence and safety in America. It spent five months on the New York Times bestseller list. In 2008, the book was featured on an hour-long Oprah Winfrey Show celebrating the tenth anniversary of its publication. My second book, Protecting the Gift, is about protecting children from violence. My most recent book is FEAR LESS: Real Truth About Risk, Safety, and Security in a Time of Terrorism. These books are now published in fourteen languages. I have written introductions for several books, including To Have or to Harm, the first major book on stalking. In addition to contributing chapters written for many other books, I have written several dozen papers related to safety and the predictions of violence, and I have had more than thirty articles published on related subjects.
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