by Oliver North
While his Energy Secretary was talking, the President, a former oil man himself, was jotting down the figures on a notepad in front of him. He looked up and said, “What you're telling us is that for the foreseeable future the best we can hope for is 40 to 45 percent of the oil we were getting from Saudi Arabia. And on top of the shortfall, every drop we use is now going to cost up to three times more than the highest price we've ever paid.”
Browning nodded somberly and said quietly, “Yes, sir.”
The President grimaced, looked back to his Defense Secretary, and said, “What about Iraq, Dan?”
“Iraqi oil, sir?”
“Yeah, how are the Iraqis doing on our little project?” asked the President. Then realizing that most of the rest of the room didn't know what he was talking about, the Chief Executive added, “A while back I asked Dan to see what it would take to get the Iraqis up on the step for full production.”
Powers had been silent for several minutes while the Treasury and Energy secretaries had been making their gloomy forecasts. Now, still without the aid of notes, he spoke quietly to the rest of the room. “What you're about to hear has been discussed only with the President, Vice President, the National Security Advisor, and General Grisham here. Until now it has been known to only a very small circle, and given what's happened today, we need to keep it that way.”
The SecDef cleared his throat and continued, “Shortly after the Iraqi elections in January '05, I asked the Defense Intelligence Agency to give us a scientific assessment of Iraqi reserves.” As he said these words he could see Perry Straw silently bristle. Collecting this kind of information was clearly within the mandate of the DNI, and everyone in the room knew it.
Powers decided to nip the bureaucratic “turf war” in the bud before it escalated outside the room. Looking directly at the DNI for the first time, he said, “Perry, I had DIA do this because the President told me to. But it was my decision not to bring your folks in because your National Intelligence Council—which ordinarily would have gotten the report—leaks like a sieve—as you are well aware.”
Straw began to argue. “That's still no reason—”
“Enough!” said the President. “What's the bottom line, Dan?”
The President's mild rebuke brought Powers back to the issue. He continued, “Our guys discovered that there hadn't been a realistic assessment of Iraqi oil reserves in more than thirty years. We used some of our new overhead stuff—both satellite and ‘air breather’—and integrated that data with geologic, seismic, and tectonic information collected over the last eighteen months. The study concludes that Iraq probably has two or three times more recoverable crude than Saudi Arabia possesses today.”
“If that's true,” said Sam Browning, the Energy Secretary, “it's the first good news I've heard all morning. Who did this assessment, if I may ask?”
“Doctors Edmond Sarrini and Josef Hussman,” Powers replied.
Even Perry Straw was impressed. Both Sarrini and Hussman had impeccable credentials, but he had to ask, “You talk about leaks—how'd you keep them from talking about their work? They're both well known in the very small but loquacious universe of oil exploration experts.”
“Unfortunately, they cannot talk. They're both dead,” Powers replied bluntly. “They were killed by a roadside bomb in Iraq four days ago. The media haven't picked up on the story yet. They delivered their final report the night before and were on the way to the airport when they were hit. Our people in Baghdad believe that someone—perhaps from one of their own survey teams—fingered them.”
“Well, you managed to keep the lid on this one,” interjected the DNI, still smarting from the earlier exchange. “I haven't seen a word of this come through channels. Did we or the Iraqis catch anyone involved?” asked Straw.
“The Iraqi National Police arrested four people that they believe were involved. Unfortunately, the suspects are also dead.”
“Who were they? How did they die?” Straw inquired even though he knew that the President was impatient to move on.
“They were Iranians—and they poisoned themselves…with Ricin,” answered Powers tersely.
Before the President could interrupt again, Jeb Stuart spoke up. “Again, it is important that none of this be discussed outside this room. Mr. Secretary, could you please summarize what the Sarrini/Hussman assessment says about how long it could take to get these Iraqi reserves into full production?”
“Shortest time, twelve months for seven to ten million barrels,” the SecDef replied. “Longer term, two to four years to bring Iraqi production up to twenty-five to thirty million barrels—roughly double what Saudi production was yesterday. But equally important, both Sarrini and Hussman maintained that Saudi production was about to drop off precipitously. Sarrini reported that the amount of seawater the Saudis were using to maintain positive pressure to push the crude to the surface had gone up dramatically in the last few years.”
Powers nodded to the Energy Secretary and said, “Sam, this is something that you understand better than I do, but Sarrini claimed that over the past four years the water being pumped into the wells increased from 18 percent to more than 30 percent. And in April of this year the ratio got as high as 52 percent.”
“That can only mean that their recoverable reserves were being depleted at an alarming rate,” Browning said, almost to himself.
For the first time the Vice President spoke up. “What connection does any of this have to what happened this morning in Saudi Arabia?”
“We're not sure, Mr. Vice President,” Powers replied deferentially. “It's still too early and we clearly don't know enough, but the one country in the region that stands to gain the most from a collapse of Saudi production is Iran.”
“Why?” asked the Energy Secretary who had been listening intently.
“Because, Sam, knocking out Saudi production sends world oil prices skyrocketing—hurting us the most. It leaves Iran as the biggest producer in the gulf and able to call the shots in OPEC as the Saudis have done since the '70s. If Saudi Arabia goes broke, their monarchy is ripe for overthrow—leaving the country open to takeover by radical Wahhabi clerics. They may be Sunni and not Shia like the Iranians, but it means another theocracy on the western side of the Persian Gulf. If that happens, in six months there won't be an ‘infidel’—meaning ‘Westerner’—remaining in the Gulf or anywhere near it.”
Browning and the others were listening intently, so Powers continued. “Once the Western oil expertise is gone, the moderate emirs and princes running the oil-producing emirates won't last a year. At that point radical ‘Islamicists’ are sitting on more than half the world's known reserves of oil. By then we'll be paying a hundred and ten dollars or more for a barrel of oil. Gasoline in the U.S. will be seven-fifty to eight bucks a gallon, our trade deficit will be out of sight, foreign aid to Egypt, Jordan, Afghanistan, or Turkey will be out of the question—and they'll be the next to go. Within eighteen months to two years it's possible that every Islamic state but one in the Middle East and Southwest Asia will be a radical theocracy. The Europeans, with fewer resources than we have to fall back on, will want to cut some kind of deal so we won't be able to count on them for any military support. We will have lost all of our bases in the region—with the exception of Iraq—which by then will be impossible to get to. You see where this is headed?”
The room was silent, taking in Powers's terrifying scenario, when the President leaned forward, his elbows on the table, and said, “So how does the killing of those two scientists—and the hit on the Iraqi oil facilities this morning—fitin all this, Dan?”
The SecDef turned back to the President and said, “The fact that Sarrini and Hussman, two of the world's preeminent oil experts, were killed by an Iranian hit team—and the fact that the only places attacked this morning outside Saudi Arabia were Iraqi oil facilities—indicates to us that the ayatollahs in Tehran are behind it. Finally, the Iranians are the big losers if Iraq really does have the kind
of exploitable reserves Sarrini and Hussman believed they have. We think it's likely that their murders and the events of this morning are in some way connected, but right now we just don't know.”
“Is there any indication that the Iranians knew the Saudis were running dry or that the Iraqis have these enormous reserves?” asked the President.
“We think it's unlikely that they knew that much about the Saudi problem,” the SecDef replied. “The Saudis were playing that one so close to the vest, we didn't know about it until Sarrini and Hussman turned in their report. On the other hand it's possible—perhaps even likely—that the Iranians have long believed Iraq had significantly greater reserves than have previously been exploited.”
“Are we seeing any mobilization in Iran?” asked the Vice President.
“This morning, after the explosions in Saudi Arabia, all Iranian Air Defense units were put on alert,” Powers answered. “They've also publicly announced that Iran Air Flight 6 is missing and overdue in Cairo. Other than that, so far there's no discernable military activity. Iranian naval units are still in port. Their air force was still on the ground when we left to come over here this morning.”
“But if the Iranians are behind this, wouldn't they be mobilizing? They know what we did in Afghanistan in 2001. Isn't it possible that this could have been done by bin Laden or some other terrorist group?” asked the President.
“It's too big an operation for bin Laden,” said the SecDef. “If the reports we're getting now are right, there were more than seventy Saudi installations hit. We estimate it took anywhere from four hundred to a thousand trained terrorists. Al Qaeda hasn't had a place to train, prepare, and mount an operation this large and complex since we shut down al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Bin Laden wanted the downfall of the Saudi government, but we just don't think he could pull off something as big as this.”
“DNI would agree on that point,” interjected Straw, trying to play catch-up.
“Is this the extent of the attacks, or should we expect something here at home?” asked the President, turning for the first time to Sarah Dornin, his Secretary for the Department of Homeland Security.
“We've activated T-PLAN 3, Mr. President,” she responded. “At 0800 this morning we increased the National Terror Alert Level from yellow to red. All of our border-entry points with Mexico and Canada are closed until you give the word to open them again.”
Then, consulting her notes, the DHS Secretary continued, “The Coast Guard has notified all non-U.S. flag vessels already in U.S. ports to cease unloading and stand off in designated at-sea anchorages until further notice. No foreign-flag ships en route will be allowed into U.S. waters or ports until their manifests are checked and they are searched. With the cooperation of both the Mexican and Canadian governments, all international flights en route to U.S. airspace are being diverted to preplanned airfields in their countries. U.S. citizens aboard these ships and planes will be bused to U.S. entry points where we will provide them with vouchers to fly on U.S. domestic carriers to their destinations and—”
“What about ‘other nationals’ who were scheduled to depart on foreign carriers?” interrupted the President.
“T-PLAN 3 calls for us to provide vouchers for them to return to their home countries aboard U.S.-flag aircraft as soon as we can,” the DHS secretary responded. She then continued, “We've cancelled all leave for Coast Guard, Border Patrol, TSA, Secret Service, ATF, and ICE personnel and placed all Civil Reserve Air Fleet aircraft on standby for mobilization.”
“Thank you, Sarah. Please make sure that we summarize this for my remarks this afternoon,” said the President. Turning to his National Security Advisor, he said, “Jeb, what time is my address to the nation?”
“We've alerted the networks that you will be making a statement at 4:00 p.m. (EST) from the Oval Office. We'll be doing a WHCA pool feed so there'll be no press in there with you,” Stuart responded.
After consulting his notes he continued, “I've also told the Press Office to put out the word that the only Q&A today will be conducted upstairs, after your statement, and that it will be a ‘backgrounder’ by a ‘senior administration official.’”
“Who's going to do the ‘backgrounder’?” asked the President.
“Secretary Powers, sir.”
Turning to his SecDef, the President said, “We need to reassure people, Dan. I think the American people can handle bad news—and we need to be straight with them about the very damaging effects the Saudi attacks are going to have on our economy. But until we have more information, I don't think we ought to lay out the ‘worst-case’ scenario you described. Let's not assume the collapse of moderate governance in Saudi Arabia and the rest of the region. We just don't know enough right now—at least for me to go on the air this afternoon and point the finger at the ayatollahs and mullahs in Tehran.”
Leaning back in his chair, the President looked around the room and asked, “Does anyone disagree? Does anyone here have any indication that the Iranians are planning anything else?”
When no one said anything, the Commander in Chief turned to his DNI and asked, “Perry, are the boys at NSA picking up any ‘chatter’ coming from Tehran or Qum?”
“No, sir,” responded Straw, glad to be consulted. “As of an hour ago we had no intercepts that would indicate Tehran had anything to do with the Saudi or Iraqi attacks. Their state-run media had announced only that they had a commercial aircraft missing.”
The President turned back to his SecDef and said, “Dan, do you have anymore proof?”
Powers paused for a moment before speaking, then said very quietly, “No, sir. But I still think there's more coming. I believe that we're going to hear a lot more from the Iranians before this is over.”
“But, Dan, what more can the Iranians do to us?” asked the President. “Surely they know if we confirm that they are behind this, that we'll respond with overwhelming force. There's no way they can win a war with us. They have no surprises of military consequence. Last week, the President's Daily Brief had an assessment of Iranian nuclear capabilities. According to the PDB, the blueprints, and materials that Iran received from that Pakistani nuclear scientist—”
“Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan,” interjected Perry Straw.
“Right,” said the President with a nod toward the DNI, and then finished the thought, “according to the PDB, the Khan network was broken up before the Iranians could enrich enough uranium for a bomb and that they are unlikely to be able to build one for the next twelve to eighteen months at the earliest. Are you now saying that the PDB was wrong? Were any nuclear weapons used in the attack this morning in Saudi Arabia?”
“No, on both counts, Mr. President,” Powers replied. “We think the CIA assessment is right about Iran's inability to make nuclear weapons on their own just yet. And we haven't detected any radiation from any of the Saudi detonations.”
“Then if the Iranians don't have nuclear weapons yet, why would they launch something like this now—why wouldn't they wait until they do?” asked the President.
Once again, Powers paused before speaking. “They had to do it now, Mr. President. General Grisham and I believe that the Iranian government is on the ropes,” he said. “In a way, we're a victim of our own success in Afghanistan and Iraq. After the Afghan elections in October '04 and the Iraqi elections in 2005, student unrest in Iran grew dramatically. Following the referendum on the new Iraqi constitution in October that year, it got worse. When the new Iraqi parliamentary government was elected with an overwhelming turnout in December of '05, the ayatollahs in Tehran had to cope with youth protests all over the country demanding free elections for Iran. They now have a democratic Iraq to their west and a democratic Afghanistan to the east. It's very threatening to their hold on power. The clerics running Tehran believe that they can hang on if they drive the ‘infidels’ out of the region, establish theocracies in the neighborhood, and take control of Middle East oil. And they know that their time is running
out.”
Jeb Stuart shook his head and interjected, “But getting back to the President's question: How can the Iranians hope to do any of that if they don't have any nuclear weapons ready for delivery yet?”
Instead of answering the National Security Advisor, Powers looked the Commander in Chief in the eye and said, “Mr. President, I don't think they have been able to build any nuclear weapons of their own yet. But that doesn't mean the Iranians haven't been able to acquire nuclear weapons from somewhere else.”
“Where?” the President shot back, clearly upset by his SecDef 's assessment.
Powers leaned back in his chair and replied, “We don't know. But I suspect we're about to find out.”
Department of Homeland Security Operations Center
_____________________________________
Nebraska Avenue, Washington, DC
Sunday, 14 October 2007
1000 Hours Local
Brig. Gen. Peter Newman, USMC, was used to coming to work early. But the call from his deputy Matt Roderick at 0425 this morning had propelled him out of bed and into the shower an hour earlier than even he was used to rising—especially on a Sunday in a stateside duty station.
Newman had raced to the Operations Center from his townhouse on Foxhall Road. Most days he ran up the hill—showering and changing from his jogging suit into his civvies when he arrived at the DHS facility on Nebraska Avenue. On the rare occasions when he drove, the commute usually took about eighteen minutes. This morning he made it in less than ten.
Now, five hours after arriving in his office beside the DHS Operations Center, he was fully frustrated. An act of war—or at the very least, a major international terror event—had occurred in Saudi Arabia, and he was relegated to the sidelines.
His assignment as the Director of Operations for the Department of Homeland Security sounded important—coordinating the crisis operations of the far-flung but disparate activities of what he had taken to calling “the DHS alphabet soup.” But in his four months on the job he had quickly learned that the USCG (the Coast Guard), TSA (the Transportation Security Administration), ATF (Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms), ICE (Immigrations and Customs Enforcement), FEMA (the Federal Emergency Management Agency), and the host of other organizations under his purview—from the Border Patrol to the Secret Service and to the state and local agencies represented in his Operations Center—already knew what to do and how to do it. The DHS Operations Staff functioned so well without his direct involvement that he complained to his wife, Rachel, that he felt like “the fifth wheel on a tricycle—lots of revolutions in small circles—but going nowhere.”