Freakonomics Revised and Expanded Edition
Page 18
Here’s a question to begin with: where does a name come from, anyway? Not, that is, the actual source of the name—that much is usually obvious: there’s the Bible, there’s the huge cluster of traditional English and Germanic and Italian and French names, there are princess names and hippie names, nostalgic names and place names. Increasingly, there are brand names (Lexus, Armani, Bacardi, Timberland) and what might be called aspirational names. The California data show eight Harvards born during the 1990s (all of them black), fifteen Yales (all white), and eighteen Princetons (all black). There were no Doctors but three Lawyers (all black), nine Judges (eight of them white), three Senators (all white), and two Presidents (both black). Then there are the invented names. Roland G. Fryer Jr., while discussing his names research on a radio show, took a call from a black woman who was upset with the name just given to her baby niece. It was pronounced shuh-TEED but was in fact spelled “Shithead.”*
Shithead has yet to catch on among the masses, but other names do. How does a name migrate through the population, and why? Is it purely a matter of zeitgeist, or is there some sensible explanation? We all know that names rise and fall and rise—witness the return of Sophie and Max from near extinction—but is there a discernible pattern to these movements?
The answer lies in the California data, and the answer is yes.
Among the most interesting revelations in the data is the correlation between a baby’s name and the parents’ socioeconomic status. Consider the most common female names found in middle-income white households versus low-income white households. (These and other lists to follow include data from the 1990s alone, to ensure a large sample that is also current.)
Most Common Middle-Income White Girl Names
1. Sarah
2. Emily
3. Jessica
4. Lauren
5. Ashley
6. Amanda
7. Megan
8. Samantha
9. Hannah
10. Rachel
11. Nicole
12. Taylor
13. Elizabeth
14. Katherine
15. Madison
16. Jennifer
17. Alexandra
18. Brittany
19. Danielle
20. Rebecca
Most Common Low-Income White Girl Names
1. Ashley
2. Jessica
3. Amanda
4. Samantha
5. Brittany
6. Sarah
7. Kayla
8. Amber
9. Megan
10. Taylor
11. Emily
12. Nicole
13. Elizabeth
14. Heather
15. Alyssa
16. Stephanie
17. Jennifer
18. Hannah
19. Courtney
20. Rebecca
There is considerable overlap, to be sure. But keep in mind that these are the most common names of all, and consider the size of the data set. The difference between consecutive positions on these lists may represent several hundred or even several thousand children. So if Brittany is number five on the low-income list and number eighteen on the middle-income list, you can be assured that Brittany is a decidedly low-end name. Other examples are even more pronounced. Five names in each category don’t appear at all in the other category’s top twenty. Here are the top five names among high-end and low-end families, in order of their relative disparity with the other category:
Most Common High-End White Girl Names
1. Alexandra
2. Lauren
3. Katherine
4. Madison
5. Rachel
Most Common Low-End White Girl Names
1. Amber
2. Heather
3. Kayla
4. Stephanie
5. Alyssa
And for the boys:
Most Common High-End White Boy Names
1. Benjamin
2. Samuel
3. Jonathan
4. Alexander
5. Andrew
Most Common Low-End White Boy Names
1. Cody
2. Brandon
3. Anthony
4. Justin
5. Robert
Considering the relationship between income and names, and given the fact that income and education are strongly correlated, it is not surprising to find a similarly strong link between the parents’ level of education and the name they give their baby. Once again drawing from the pool of most common names among white children, here are the top picks of highly educated parents versus those with the least education:
Most Common White Girl Names Among High-Education Parents
1. Katherine
2. Emma
3. Alexandra
4. Julia
5. Rachel
Most Common White Girl Names Among Low-Education Parents
1. Kayla
2. Amber
3. Heather
4. Brittany
5. Brianna
Most Common White Boy Names Among High-Education Parents
1. Benjamin
2. Samuel
3. Alexander
4. John
5. William
Most Common White Boy Names Among Low-Education Parents
1. Cody
2. Travis
3. Brandon
4. Justin
5. Tyler
The effect is even more pronounced when the sample is widened beyond the most common names. Drawing from the entire California database, here are the names that signify the most poorly educated white parents.
The Twenty White Girl Names
That Best Signify Low-Education Parents*
(Average number of years of mother’s education in parentheses)
1. Angel (11.38)
2. Heaven (11.46)
3. Misty (11.61)
4. Destiny (11.66)
5. Brenda (11.71)
6. Tabatha (11.81)
7. Bobbie (11.87)
8. Brandy (11.89)
9. Destinee (11.91)
10. Cindy (11.92)
11. Jazmine (11.94)
12. Shyanne (11.96)
13. Britany (12.05)
14. Mercedes (12.06)
15. Tiffanie (12.08)
16. Ashly (12.11)
17. Tonya (12.13)
18. Crystal (12.15)
19. Brandie (12.16)
20. Brandi (12.17)
If you or someone you love is named Cindy or Brenda and is over, say, forty, and feels that those names did not formerly connote a low-education family, you are right. These names, like many others, have shifted hard and fast of late. Some of the other low-education names are obviously misspellings, whether intentional or not, of more standard names. In most cases the standard spellings of the names—Tabitha, Cheyenne, Tiffany, Brittany, and Jasmine—also signify low education. But the various spellings of even one name can reveal a strong disparity:
Ten “Jasmines” in Ascending Order of Maternal Education
(Years of mother’s education in parentheses)
1. Jazmine (11.94)
2. Jazmyne (12.08)
3. Jazzmin (12.14)
4. Jazzmine (12.16)
5. Jasmyne (12.18)
6. Jasmina (12.50)
7. Jazmyn (12.77)
8. Jasmine (12.88)
9. Jasmin (13.12)
10. Jasmyn (13.23)
Here is the list of low-education white boy names. It includes the occasional misspelling (Micheal and Tylor), but more common is the nickname-as-proper-name trend.
The Twenty White Boy Names
That Best Signify Low-Education Parents*
(Years of mother’s education in parentheses)
1. Ricky (11.55)
2. Joey (11.65)
3. Jessie (11.66)
4. Jimmy (11.66)
5. Billy (11.69)
6. Bobby (11.74)
7. Johnny (11.75)<
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8. Larry (11.80)
9. Edgar (11.81)
10. Steve (11.84)
11. Tommy (11.89)
12. Tony (11.96)
13. Micheal (11.98)
14. Ronnie (12.03)
15. Randy (12.07)
16. Jerry (12.08)
17. Tylor (12.14)
18. Terry (12.15)
19. Danny (12.17)
20. Harley (12.22)
Now for the names that signify the highest level of parental education. These names don’t have much in common, phonetically or aesthetically, with the low-education names. The girls’ names are in most regards diverse, though with a fair share of literary and otherwise artful touches. A caution to prospective parents who are shopping for a “smart” name: remember that such a name won’t make your child smart; it will, however, give her the same name as other smart kids—at least for a while. (For a much longer and more varied list of girls’ and boys’ names)
The Twenty White Girl Names
That Best Signify High-Education Parents*
(Years of mother’s education in parentheses)
1. Lucienne (16.60)
2. Marie-Claire (16.50)
3. Glynnis (16.40)
4. Adair (16.36)
5. Meira (16.27)
6. Beatrix (16.26)
7. Clementine (16.23)
8. Philippa (16.21)
9. Aviva (16.18)
10. Flannery (16.10)
11. Rotem (16.08)
12. Oona (16.00)
13. Atara (16.00)
14. Linden (15.94)
15. Waverly (15.93)
16. Zofia (15.88)
17. Pascale (15.82)
18. Eleanora (15.80)
19. Elika (15.80)
20. Neeka (15.77)
Now for the boys’ names that are turning up these days in high-education households. This list is particularly heavy on the Hebrew, with a noticeable trend toward Irish traditionalism.
The Twenty White Boy Names
That Best Signify High-Education Parents*
(Years of mother’s education in parentheses)
1. Dov (16.50)
2. Akiva (16.42)
3. Sander (16.29)
4. Yannick (16.20)
5. Sacha (16.18)
6. Guillaume (16.17)
7. Elon (16.16)
8. Ansel (16.14)
9. Yonah (16.14)
10. Tor (16.13)
11. Finnegan (16.13)
12. MacGregor (16.10)
13. Florian (15.94)
14. Zev (15.92)
15. Beckett (15.91)
16. Kia (15.90)
17. Ashkon (15.84)
18. Harper (15.83)
19. Sumner (15.77)
20. Calder (15.75)
If many names on the above lists were unfamiliar to you, don’t feel bad. Even boys’ names—which have always been scarcer than girls’—have been proliferating wildly. This means that even the most popular names today are less popular than they used to be. Consider the ten most popular names given to black baby boys in California in 1990 and then in 2000. The top ten in 1990 includes 3,375 babies (18.7 percent of those born that year), while the top ten in 2000 includes only 2,115 (14.6 percent of those born that year).
Most Popular Black Boy Names
(Number of occurrences in parentheses)
1990
1. Michael (532)
2. Christopher (531)
3. Anthony (395)
4. Brandon (323)
5. James (303)
6. Joshua (301)
7. Robert (276)
8. David (243)
9. Kevin (240)
10. Justin (231)
2000
1. Isaiah (308)
2. Jordan (267)
3. Elijah (262)
4. Michael (235)
5. Joshua (218)
6. Anthony (208)
7. Christopher (169)
8. Jalen (159)
9. Brandon (148)
10. Justin (141)
In the space of ten years, even the most popular name among black baby boys (532 occurrences for Michael) became far less popular (308 occurrences for Isaiah). So parents are plainly getting more diverse with names. But there’s another noteworthy shift in these lists: a very quick rate of turnover. Note that four of the 1990 names (James, Robert, David, and Kevin) fell out of the top ten by 2000. Granted, they made up the bottom half of the 1990 list. But the names that replaced them in 2000 weren’t bottom dwellers. Three of the new names—Isaiah, Jordan, and Elijah—were in fact numbers one, two, and three in 2000. For an even more drastic example of how quickly and thoroughly a name can cycle in and out of use, consider the ten most popular names given to white girls in California in 1960 and then in 2000.
Most Popular White Girl Names
1960
1. Susan
2. Lisa
3. Karen
4. Mary
5. Cynthia
6. Deborah
7. Linda
8. Patricia
9. Debra
10. Sandra
2000
1. Emily
2. Hannah
3. Madison
4. Sarah
5. Samantha
6. Lauren
7. Ashley
8. Emma
9. Taylor
10. Megan
Not a single name from 1960 remains in the top ten. But, you say, it’s hard to stay popular for forty years. So how about comparing today’s most popular names with the top ten from only twenty years earlier?
Most Popular White Girl Names
1980
1. Jennifer
2. Sarah
3. Melissa
4. Jessica
5. Christina
6. Amanda
7. Nicole
8. Michelle
9. Heather
10. Amber
2000
1. Emily
2. Hannah
3. Madison
4. Sarah
5. Samantha
6. Lauren
7. Ashley
8. Emma
9. Taylor
10. Megan
A single holdover: Sarah. So where do these Emilys and Emmas and Laurens all come from? Where on earth did Madison come from?* It’s easy enough to see that new names become very popular very fast—but why?
Let’s take another look at a pair of earlier lists. Here are the most popular names given to baby girls in the 1990s among low-income families and among families of middle income or higher.
Most Common “High-End” White Girl Names in the 1990s
1. Alexandra
2. Lauren
3. Katherine
4. Madison
5. Rachel
Most Common “Low-End” White Girl Names in the 1990s
1. Amber
2. Heather
3. Kayla
4. Stephanie
5. Alyssa
Notice anything? You might want to compare these names with the “Most Popular White Girl Names” list, which includes the top ten overall names from 1980 and 2000. Lauren and Madison, two of the most popular “high-end” names from the 1990s, made the 2000 top ten list. Amber and Heather, meanwhile, two of the overall most popular names from 1980, are now among the “low-end” names.
There is a clear pattern at play: once a name catches on among high-income, highly educated parents, it starts working its way down the socioeconomic ladder. Amber and Heather started out as high-end names, as did Stephanie and Brittany. For every high-end baby named Stephanie or Brittany, another five lower-income girls received those names within ten years.
So where do lower-end families go name-shopping? Many people assume that naming trends are driven by celebrities. But celebrities actually have a weak effect on baby names. As of 2000, the pop star Madonna had sold 130 million records worldwide but hadn’t generated even the ten copycat namings—in Calif
ornia, no less—required to make the master index of four thousand names from which the sprawling list of girls’ names was drawn. Or considering all the Brittanys, Britneys, Brittanis, Brittanies, Brittneys, and Brittnis you encounter these days, you might think of Britney Spears. But she is in fact a symptom, not a cause, of the Brittany/Britney/Brittani/ Brittanie/Brittney/Brittni explosion. With the most common spelling of the name, Brittany, at number eighteen among high-end families and number five among low-end families, it is surely approaching its pull date. Decades earlier, Shirley Temple was similarly a symptom of the Shirley boom, though she is often now remembered as its cause. (It should also be noted that many girls’ names, including Shirley, Carol, Leslie, Hilary, Renee, Stacy, and Tracy began life as boys’ names, but girls’ names almost never cross over to boys.)
So it isn’t famous people who drive the name game. It is the family just a few blocks over, the one with the bigger house and newer car. The kind of families that were the first to call their daughters Amber or Heather and are now calling them Lauren or Madison. The kind of families that used to name their sons Justin or Brandon and are now calling them Alexander or Benjamin. Parents are reluctant to poach a name from someone too near—family members or close friends—but many parents, whether they realize it or not, like the sound of names that sound “successful.”
But as a high-end name is adopted en masse, high-end parents begin to abandon it. Eventually, it is considered so common that even lower-end parents may not want it, whereby it falls out of the rotation entirely. The lower-end parents, meanwhile, go looking for the next name that the upper-end parents have broken in.