‘The names come from Companies House and have been given the once-over by MI5.’
‘Let us be clear. You are suggesting…’ The PM looked at the sheet, ‘That a special adviser to me at Number 10, whom I was with not four hours ago, is on their payroll, as are two individuals who provide support to COBRA. Is that correct?’
Kate looked straight at the PM and said simply, ‘Yes, sir.’
‘The problem is that we have identified two potential moles in COBRA, but we can’t be one hundred per cent sure that we haven’t missed a third,’ said Ewan.
The PM looked at the head of MI5. ‘This is very disturbing; why didn’t I know about this sooner?’
‘Unfortunately, Sir, we have only just uncovered them. They’re “sleepers”, put in place to carry out one or more specific activities. Up to that point, they are in effect invisible. I have seen the documentation relating to one of the limited liability partnerships controlled by the terrorists, on which an MP sits as a non-executive. He gets paid £40,000 per annum for attending just four half-day meetings a year. The going rate for an individual with little business experience would be less than onetenth of what he’s being paid. The fact that this MP sits on a couple of sensitive committees is what concerns us at MI5. Following our investigations into the activities of Maryam Vynckt, we believe that a number of those on the list have received large payments offshore, via Gulf Trade Bank. The problem is that the offshore payments are very hard to trace unless you know exactly where to look,’ Ewan paused. ‘Therefore, for now, it is difficult to confirm that the list is complete.’
The Defence Secretary looked agitated, but kept quiet.
‘So, it’s a matter of timing?’ asked the PM. ‘Whilst the terrorists have their Kornet missiles and remain at large, you believe COBRA should not be activated?’
‘Precisely, sir.’
The Prime Minister looked thoughtful. Rafi sensed he didn’t agree.
‘Thank you,’ said the Prime Minister, ‘that answers my first question. My second question is: how certain are we that the terrorists have Kornet missiles?’
Kate flicked through her bundle of papers, pulled out copies of the digitally enhanced photos of the two wooden boxes strapped into the inflatable dinghy and passed them around the table.
‘The photos were taken under an hour ago. The boats involved are owned by the terrorists… And the markings on the boxes match those stolen from the Russians.’
‘Thank you. Now for question number three. Could you please tell me why you are so confident that the four Chechen mercenaries have two targets each?’
‘A combination of things, Prime Minister. First, we have confirmation that they took delivery of five Kornet missile launchers and twenty missiles, four of which we know have been fired. This leaves them with sixteen missiles. The photos we have just received indicate that a launcher and probably four missiles are now on board Golden Sundancer. This leaves the four Chechen terrorists with a launcher and three missiles each. We have been talking to the army; the launcher, its tripod and the missiles would be too cumbersome for one man to move around quickly. We therefore believe that the Kornet launcher will be used to fire three missiles and then left behind. Each terrorist will then move on to where they have hidden a Vektor mortar and will use it to attack their second target. Our Estonian friends have confirmed that the terrorists have taken delivery of four such mortars with eighty high-explosive shells.’
Kate paused to let what she had just said sink in, and was about to carry on when the Defence Secretary enquired, ‘Could they not use the mortars first?’
‘Yes, that is entirely possible. But the advice from the SAS is that as the Kornet missiles inflict much more damage, they would be used first,’ replied Kate.
The Defence Secretary nodded and she continued. ‘If we consider the types of targets close to the terrorists’ vacant properties and their weapons - they correspond. The Kornet missiles will be used on the substantially built targets – the nuclear power stations – and the Vektor mortars will attack lighterweight targets – the oil and gas facilities.’
‘OK. Question number four: when and where do you believe that the terrorist attacks will come?’
‘Our educated guess is that the attacks will be tomorrow between 7.30 and 8.00 a.m. – from first light to when the Stock Exchange opens. This will maximise the news coverage and the adverse impact on the markets. This theory is supported by the information we have from the local harbour masters, who have informed us that the trawlers are all due to slip their berths tomorrow between late morning and early afternoon.’
Kate passed across more sheets of paper detailing where they believed the attacks would take place.
The PM looked around at his colleagues, who were deep in thought. ‘Any questions or shall I carry on?’ After a short pause, he moved on to his fifth question. ‘Why do you want us to let the terrorists escape and make them believe that they’ve successfully hit their targets?’
Kate looked behind her at John and Jeremy. Neither showed any desire to tackle this question so she carried on.
‘We want to arrest the four main ringleaders: Sheikh Tufayl, Basel Talal, Jameel Furud and Maryam Vynckt and any other people who have been helping them,’ expressed Kate. She paused momentarily to collect her thoughts.
‘Perhaps I could answer this question Prime Minister?’ said Ewan. ‘Our intelligence unit tells me that the main ringleaders and the escaping terrorists will meet up. We believe that their destination is Morocco. Jameel is there and confirmation has come through that the sheikh’s private jet has filed a flight plan to Marrakech airport. It’s scheduled to land at 12.45 p.m. on Monday. We believe the terrorists will leave Britain on the trawlers and rendezvous with their fast motor vessel, Golden Sundancer, which will then sail to Morocco.’
‘What are the extradition procedures like from Morocco?’ asked the Defence Secretary.
‘They are a diplomatically friendly country. And we have successfully extradited the £50m Securitas robber from there.’ Ewan paused. ‘However, the procedure is long-winded and the evidence has to be watertight and well documented. Put bluntly, time wouldn’t be on our side. Sheikh Tufayl, a Muslim, is very wealthy and very well-connected. He has the ability to slip the net if he winds up in the hands of the Moroccan authorities.’
‘How important do we think these people are?’ asked the PM.
‘Very,’ replied Ewan. ‘We’re dealing with international players who are in the vanguard of financing terrorist activities. Their bank accounts are in both neutral countries and some less than neutral. Deals struck in the financial and derivatives markets can easily be done via intermediaries – something like the Banco de “we launder your money for a fee”. The turnover in the derivative markets is vast. Tracking down such transactions would take time and the profits made would rapidly become untraceable. We believe that we need positive proof of the ringleaders’ involvement and can’t afford to let them slip away to fight another day. Capturing them in flagrante delicto would make it far simpler to freeze their assets and then have them confiscated. If they think that they’ve been successful, they and their accomplices will be less likely to go to ground.’
Ewan looked at the PM. ‘In addition, there would be a feelgood factor from the news coverage following their capture. However, our priority is to scupper their plans and then apprehend them.’
Kate spoke up. ‘The four Chechens are dangerous killers. If they were cornered in a public place, it could get very messy and the collateral damage could be large. If we follow them, we can pick them up well away from innocent bystanders. I should make it very clear that we would only wish them to be allowed to escape to the trawlers if and only if their Kornet and Vektor weapons are out of action.’
The PM thought carefully about what she had just said. ‘My last question is: could you please explain your fears relating to the financial markets?’
Rafi glanced at Kate and Aidan. They nodded at him
. ‘Could I answer that one, please, Prime Minister?’
‘Yes, go ahead.’
Rafi thought for a moment about where it would be best to start and eventually decided to start at the beginning, with the description of their three PhD theses. ‘John and Jeremy discussed the ringleaders’ academic work with a senior lecturer who was a contemporary of theirs - he described their dissertations as being incisive and of exemplary standard. However, to quote him: If one puts them together, they are the instruction kit for building a financial atomic bomb.’
The PM shifted uncomfortably in his chair.
‘Sheikh Tufayl is conservatively worth $10 billion,’ continued Rafi. ‘Jameel Furud, through his control of Prima Terra, has around £30 billion of funds under his management; Maryam has, we estimate, a similar sum under her control. While Talal, in contrast, has used the sheikh’s money to build up the terrorist infrastructure. They have billions at their disposal, and intend to use it to wreck the Government’s finances.’ He stopped for a moment, letting the point sink home. ‘The terrorist activities should be viewed in the context of the continuing uneasiness in investor sentiment. Their ultimate aim is to trigger another stock market crash, which will enable them to make massive profits from their positions in the derivative markets.’
Rafi stopped and looked around the table to check that the guests had taken on board what he’d been saying. ‘Aidan has been doing excellent work on the scale of their intervention into these derivative markets.’ He leant forward and looked past Kate at Aidan.
‘Prime Minister; in a nutshell, if they achieve their ambition they’ll saddle the derivatives markets with losses in the region of £50-100 billion,’ added Aidan. ‘I have identified a sufficient number of contracts to confirm the scale of the numbers involved.’
The Prime Minister looked at Rafi and then at Aidan. ‘Well, there is a simple answer: we close down the market and unwind the positions in the derivative contracts.’
Rafi looked at the PM. ‘Might I enlarge, please?’ he enquired politely.
‘Yes,’ came the slightly clipped reply.
‘Also the terrorists have identified a number of areas where Government guarantees exist. Their aim is to bring billions of pounds of debts and liabilities back on to the Government’s balance sheet. For example, by attacking nuclear power stations - there will be colossal clean-up costs, plus the likelihood of large accelerated decommissioning costs. Then there will big costs to stop the outsourced public sector services, that they control, from collapsing. Against the backdrop of a stock market crash, this would put the weakened Government finances into a perilous position,’ concluded Rafi.
‘This all seems rather far-fetched if you ask me,’ commented the Defence Secretary. ‘My view is that the greedy bastards want to make a financial killing, nothing more nothing less. Let’s stop the trading in the contracts that Aidan has identified and get on with catching them.’
The PM looked at Aidan and Rafi. ‘Do you believe that the Government’s finances are in peril?’
‘Yes, sir. These terrorists aren’t just financially astute and used to dealing with huge sums of money; they are also exceedingly devious and clever. They are determined to inflict as much damage as possible. It is as if they have declared war on our economy.’
Rafi sensed that the Defence Secretary disagreed. ‘In the short time available to us, we’ve looked at the two most obvious derivatives contracts and can confirm that they have built up big positions. I strongly believe that they will have also been trading in Frankfurt and Chicago. It would be nigh on impossible to unwind the myriad of positions they, and possibly their associates, have amassed.’
‘This is bloody preposterous!’ burst out the Defence Secretary. ‘This is all too much. You’re exaggerating – trying to play things up for your own self-importance! Have none of this Prime Minister – get on and stop the terrorist attacks. We can let the Treasury and the Bank of England sort out the financial problems next week, as and when they occur.’
Meanwhile, Aidan was doing an excellent impression of a boiler building up a head of steam: his ears had gone red and his eyes had narrowed. He was close to telling the Defence Secretary exactly what he thought of him.
‘Do you have a solution?’ asked the Prime Minister.
‘We believe that we do, sir,’ replied Rafi. ‘All we ask is that the authorities don’t procrastinate. We’re drawing up a detailed report for the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Board of the Bank of England as to how these financial problems can be contained. We would like to put these proposals in front of them as soon as we know how bad, or otherwise, things are going to be. In light of the impending attacks it’s our suggestion that the London financial markets do not open tomorrow. This will give us…’
‘That is exactly what I suggested!’ burst out the Defence Secretary.
‘Not quite,’ Aidan added quietly. ‘Your suggestion was to unwind the terrorists’ derivatives positions; ours is to close the markets for a day to give us time to counter their financial attacks. What we have to avoid is procrastination; if the markets pass the point of no return, I’m absolutely certain that financial Armageddon will become an unstoppable reality.’
The Prime Minister looked perturbed.
The Air Chief Marshal spoke. ‘Prime Minister, might I make a suggestion? I hear what our friends here have been saying. As I see it, they are experts in their field and we’re not. If what they say is correct, it could have damaging consequences that far outweigh the physical damage that the terrorists might inflict. Without a prosperous economy and a fully operational banking sector our democracy would be undermined. Let us focus on stopping the terrorists – their missile and suicide bomber attacks – but at the same time run with Mr Khan and Mr Gilchrist’s assertions and get the experts and the top decision makers at the Treasury and the Bank to consider their grave predictions, as soon as practical.’
The PM nodded. ‘Thank you, Sir Nigel; that makes good sense.’
The commissioner cast his eyes in Rafi’s direction. ‘You had something else to say, I believe?’
‘Not more pessimism!’ exclaimed the Defence Secretary in an irritated tone.
Rafi smiled. ‘No sir, actually some good news for once. If we can stop the markets from falling and hold long interest rates where they are until, say, the middle of next week, the terrorists’ positions in the derivative markets will become untenable. Their margin calls will become larger and larger, and they will be financially wiped out. This will eliminate several billion pounds from their coffers, damage many of the shadier banks and set back the terrorist cause by months if not years.’
He stopped and glanced at the PM. ‘Sir, we have a plan.’ He paused, ‘Government real estate investment trusts could be created, thus providing the Government with a source of finance that will enable it to meet these impending financial obligations as and when they arise. It will remove the need to tap the gilts markets, and will help the Government refinance its increased borrowings resulting from the bail out of the UK banking system.’
‘Why didn’t you say that sooner?’ interjected the tetchy Defence Secretary.
The Prime Minister smiled. ‘So there’s a silver lining – as long as we take on board your solution and you get it right.’
‘Yes, Prime Minister.’
‘Right, back to matters at hand,’ said the PM. ‘The outstanding question that we need to answer is: do the terrorists have a contingency plan “B” in place? And if so, how much damage might a Kornet missile inflict? I’d be very interested to hear your views, Air Chief Marshal.’
‘The damage could be extensive. If MI5 are confident that they know where the terrorists are going to attack in all but one of the locations, why give them a second chance by activating COBRA?’
‘Ewan?’
‘From MI5’s standpoint we can’t believe our good fortune in finding where the attacks are likely to come from. Why risk tipping the terrorists off?’
&
nbsp; ‘Defence Secretary?’
‘We’ve everything in place to run such an operation from COBRA. And how certain are we that these properties will be used by the terrorists? I believe that the two moles in COBRA should be apprehended so that we can get COBRA up and running, using the advantages that its set up will give us. I’d be willing to take the seemingly minute risk that there isn’t a third mole… However, I will fall into line if everyone else believes COBRA isn’t the right way forward at this point in time.’
‘Commissioner, what are your views on COBRA?’
‘The consequences of the terrorists swapping to a plan “B” are, in my opinion, too great a risk to contemplate whilst they and the four Kornet missile launchers are at large. Perhaps, sir, you might like to take a look at the emergency operations room we’ve set up downstairs before you make up your mind?’
The PM turned to Ewan. ‘Please arrest the two COBRA suspects without tipping off the terrorists, and see if you can discover how they were going to make contact.’
‘Yes, sir. We have them under surveillance.’
The PM looked at Kate and her team.
‘We owe you a great debt of gratitude for all your work and insight into the terrorists’ activities, and thank you for placing our troubles into context. Mr Khan, thank you for your tenacity. And my thanks to the rest of you.’
Kate took that as the invitation to leave. She and her team filed out of the room.
They didn’t have to wait long. Jeremy received a call on his mobile. ‘Well, I’m damned.’ He listened a little longer and then said, ‘Thank you.’
Jeremy looked across at John. ‘My colleagues have interviewed one of the COBRA suspects. He gave them the phone number he was to ring and the phrase he was to use each time COBRA was activated. They traced the landline number as the ex-directory number of a special press adviser. However, the call was to be redirected through to the voicemail box of a mobile phone. And – would you bloody well believe it? – the mobile is currently located on the outskirts of Aldermaston, 200 metres away from where the suicide bombers are holed up in the horsebox. It’s a bit of luck; we had assumed that they were all together.’
LATENT HAZARD: On the Edge Page 20