Barometer of Fear

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by Alexis; Stenfors


  United States District Court Southern District of New York (2012) ‘In re LIBOR-based financial instruments antitrust litigation, case no. 12 CV 1025 (NRB)’. New York NY: US District Court.

  United States District Court Southern District of New York (2015) ‘In re foreign exchange benchmark rates antitrust litigation, case no. 1-13-CV-07789’. New York NY: US District Court.

  Vaughan, L. (2015a) ‘“I’ve got my wizards hat on:” What broker said about Libor moves’. Bloomberg, 23 October. Available from: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-23/-i-ve-got-my-wizards-hat-on-what-broker-said-about-libor-moves [accessed 21 December 2016].

  Vaughan, L. (2015b) ‘Ex-Tullett broker said he lied to Hayes about Libor to save job’. Bloomberg, 12 November. Available from: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-12/ex-tullett-broker-said-he-lied-to-hayes-about-libor-to-save-job [accessed 21 December 2016].

  Vaughan, L. (2015c) ‘“Barrow boy” brokers were ignored by bankers on Libor, Read says’. Bloomberg, 17 November. Available from: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-17/-barrow-boy-brokers-were-ignored-by-bankers-on-libor-read-says [accessed 21 December 2016].

  Vaughan, L. and Finch, G. (2013) ‘Libor lies revealed in rigging of $300 trillion benchmark’. Bloomberg, 6 February. Available from: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-01-28/libor-lies-revealed-in-rigging-of-300-trillion-benchmark [accessed 21 December 2016].

  Vaughan, L. and Finch, G. (2015) ‘Was Tom Hayes running the biggest financial conspiracy in history? Or just taking the fall for one?’ Bloomberg, 14 September. Available from: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-14/was-tom-hayes-running-the-biggest-financial-conspiracy-in-history- [accessed 21 December 2016].

  Verlaine, J. and Finch, G. (2014) ‘Biggest banks said to overhaul FX trading after scandals’. Bloomberg, 16 September. Available from: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-09-15/biggest-banks-said-to-overhaul-fx-trading-after-scandals [accessed 21 December 2016].

  World Trade Organization (2016) ‘Time series on international trade’. WTO website. Available from: http://stat.wto.org/StatisticalProgram/WSDBViewData.aspx?Language=E [accessed 20 September 2016].

  Wu, T. (2008) ‘On the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s new liquidity facilities’. Working Paper No. 0808. Dallas TX: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Research Department.

  Yule, G. U. (1927) ‘On a reading scale’. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 90 (3), 570–9.

  INDEX

  ABN Amro Bank, 59

  Accenture, ‘rogue trading’ definition, 249

  Accept, Breaker album, 110–11

  ACI (Association Cambiste Internationale/Forex), 174, 181; ‘Dealing Certificates’, 216; Model Code, 227

  actual funding rates, public knowledge, 97

  Adoboli, Kweku, 250

  Agius, Marcus, 77, 284

  Almunia, Joaquín, 221

  American Psycho, 239–40, 250

  Aragon, 25

  arbitarge, 31; opportunities, 27

  Aros, 25

  Asian financial crisis 1997, 260

  ATM queues, image of, 109

  average opinions, expectation of, 102

  Bäckström, Urban, 117

  Bailey, Andrew, 280

  ‘banging the close’, 209

  Bank of America, 2, 11, 153, 164, 188, 191, 223; Merrill Lynch rescue/takeover, 49, 67, 161–3, 193; rescue of, 10

  Bank of England, 38, 55, 222; Exchange Joint Standing Committee, 179; inflation target, 39

  Bank of Japan, 33, 81, 175–6

  Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, 153, 223

  banking, competitive deregulation, 114; incentive structures literature, 252; post 2008 reforms, 254; risk taking essence, 281; staff ‘cost centres’, 95; see also, central banks; financial markets; money markets

  banks: access to money indicators, 96; cash hoarding, 45; change attempts post-scandals, 283; credit departments, 253; derivatives main users, 121; Eurodollar market made, 117, 125; fines, 236; LIBOR hiding, 105; LIBOR perceptions, 79; LIBOR quotes, 99; markets abuse, 14; profit maximizing, 80; public trust need, 284; reputational damage, 168; ‘special’ sector, 173; risk management systems, 46

  Banque pour l’Europe du Nord, 113

  Barclays Bank, 59, 98, 105, 153, 192–3, 210, 220, 223; Capital securities unit, 98; interest rate derivatives traders, 77; 2012 fines, 76; US dollar LIBOR trial, 139

  Basel Accord 1988, 137; perverse effect, 138

  BBA, banking lobby, 180, 183; BBAIRS creation, 118; big banks dominated, 107; -LIBOR trademark, 181

  Bear Stearns, 49, 105, 272

  ‘beating the market’, 267

  Becker, Gary, 254

  behavioural finance, study of, 196, 200–1, 255; ‘disruption effect’ concept, 258

  benchmarks: financial instruments, 122; manipulation of, 14; manipulation criminalised, 282

  Berlin Radio Show, 111

  bid-offer spreads, 42–3, 62, 112, 132, 139, 146, 219, 223, 228–9; collusive practices, 223; FX market, 192; prices tight, 201; round figures, 218; secretly agreed, 220

  BIS (Bank for International Settlements), 130

  blame, individualised, 236; shifting, 68

  Bloomberg, 50, 86, 88, 98, 151, 195, 283; indicative prices, 62

  BNP Paribas, 193, 223; investment funds freeze redemptions, 50

  Böll, Heinrich, 235

  bonds selling, 21; trading desks, 215

  bonuses, 164, 273; curbing partial solution, 280; stricter rules on, 280

  ‘book’, traders, 26

  Borough Market, London, 7, 101, 245

  borrowing rates, low-balling, 99

  bribes, forms of, 91

  brokers, 143; best guess, 88; false information transmission, 89; role of, 141; traders pressure on, 90; -traders relation, 86–7, 89; use of, 132

  Buffett, Warren, 15, 251

  bulls/bears, early experiences formed, 31

  Bush, George W., 45

  buy and sell orders, 208

  ‘call-outs’, 24; symptom assessing, 25

  ‘Can do More’, 144

  Canada: dollar, 33; Foreign Exchange Committee, 179

  Canary Wharf, London, 6

  Cantor Fitzgerald, London office, 264

  capital controls, abolishment, 133

  Carr Futures, World Trade Centre office, 264

  cash markets, importance loss, 139

  cash squeezes, year-end, 44

  cash-settled derivatives; benchmark need, 122–3; made market, 133

  cassettes, history of, 110–11

  CDOs (collateralised debt obligations), 11

  central bank, 151; -banks unique relationship, 173; foreign exchange interventions, 233; inflation rate target, 70; LIBOR key variable, 53, 151; LIBOR use, 152; money pumping, 50; power, 174; power overestimated, 49, 54; price stability goal, 51; repos, 175; tips, 176; transparency, 40, 166–7; unexpected interest rate moves, 41; weakening of, 114

  Channel 4 News, 11

  Chase Manhattan, 131

  Chemical Bank (JPMorgan Chase), 30

  CIBOR (Copenhagen Interbank Offered Rate), 28, 78–9

  Citibank, 29, 30, 58, 101, 153, 155, 182, 188, 193, 220, 223; benchmark manipulation fine, 160; ‘Scandi’ desk, 33; Tokyo dealing room, 196

  CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), 123, 1288; Eurodollar futures, 126

  collateral types, central banks lowering, 50

  competition law, UK and EU, 222

  complex structured products, valuation inability, 50

  compliance departments banks, 253; post-scandals increase, 283

  Cooke, Mr Justice, 282

  copycat behaviour, market making, 202–3

  Cosmopolis, 250

  counterparties, confirmations, 18

  Countrywide, 49

  CPI, Inflation index, 149

  credit: default swap market, 99; officers, 95; rating agencies, 96; risk, 137; risk measure for, 55

  Crédit Agricole Indosuez, 37, 44, 58–9, 134, 1
55

  Crédit Suisse, 153, 193, 221, 223; First Boston, 127

  creditworthiness: ‘image problem’, 51; judgments on, 225; signals, 98, 99

  cross-currency basis swap, LIBOR-indexed, 62

  CRSs, 129

  Darin, Roger, 115

  dealing relationships, informal reciprocal, 227

  dealing rooms, internal monitoring increase, 283

  deceptive behaviour, LIBOR banks, 105; quotes post-crisis pressure, 106

  Del Missier, Jerry, 77

  Den Danske bank, 178

  derivatives, ‘abstract’, 123–4; benchmark use, 150; borrowing and lending idea, 138; concrete type, 121; growing market, 79; interest rates, 30; LIBOR-indexed, 28, 71, 80, 104, 129; new instruments, 18; textbook explanation, 119–20; trade tickets, 141’usefulness’ of, 131

  derivatives market: benchmark need, 119; LIBOR importance, 37; Scandanavia, 27

  Deutsche Bank, 153, 193, 223; LIBOR controls deceptions, 183; LIBOR fine, 83

  Diamond, Bob, 77

  Dillon Read, 49

  ‘discount windows’ lowering, 50

  ‘dishonesty’, 249

  Donohue, Craig, 128

  dot-com bubble, 104

  downgrades, credit rating agencies, 96

  Dresdner Bank, 17, 155, 197

  Duffy, Terry, 128

  Easton Ellis, Bret, American Psycho, 236

  economic data releases, examples of, 38

  efficient market hypothesis, 195, 200–1; unrealistic assumption, 196

  ‘emerging markets’, trading desks, 37

  ERM (European Exchange Rate Mechanism) crisis, 31–2

  Ermotti, Sergio, 213

  EURIBOR (Euro Interbank Offered Rate), 14, 76–8, 126, 130; derivatives, 145; new unpredictability, 62; pre-Euro, 148

  euro, the: Eurozone crisis, 109; launch of, 36

  eurocurrency market, 113; central bank weakening, 111; deregulated, 114; Eurodollars, see below; fast growth of, 112; LIBOR derivatives replaced, 134

  Eurodollar market, 113, 133, 152; advantages, 112; banks made, 117, 125; contracts standard maturity dates, 126; financial deregulation prompt, 116; futures, see below; gradual reduction of, 136; history of, 111; LIBOR rate making, 117, 129; rapid growth of, 115

  Eurodollar futures, 125, 128, 265; bets on, 146; rationale for, 129; success of, 127

  Euromoney, 135

  European Banking Federation, 180

  European Central Bank (ECB), 50, 109, 145

  European Commission, 221

  Euroyen LIBOR futures contract, 127

  ‘Events’ central bank meetings, 40

  excessive lending, inflationary fears, 114

  exclusivity, self-perception, 269

  expectations, games of, 103; overpriced stock, 104

  ‘expert judgments’, banks LIBOR quotes, 278

  Fama, Eugene, 195

  ‘fat fingers’ errors, 253

  FBI, USA, 192–3

  FCA (Financial Conduct Authority), 183–4, 188, 219, 282; Fair and Effective Markets Review, 222; prohibited individuals list, 285

  fear, rumours of, 266

  Federal Reserve, see USA

  FIBOR (Frankfurt Interbank Offered Rate), 19, 127

  financial crisis, Asia 1997, 36

  financial crisis 2007–8; decent culture erosion explanation, 279; familiar analysis of, 114; financial market illuminating, 275; -LIBOR implications, 52, 111; money markets freeze, 109

  financial markets: cartels, 222; deregulation 115–16; instruments liquidity, 43; misconceptions, 236; self-regulated, 113, 171; see also, money markets

  Finers Stephens Innocent, 3

  Finland: USSR collapse impact, 20; USSR Winter War, 65

  ‘firm policy’, interbank spread choosing, 229

  fixed exchange rates, sustainability, 32

  flat switch, 92–5

  flow traders, 143

  Forex, 1995 exam, 223; reciprocity endorsed, 227

  FRAs (forward rate agreements), 28, 75, 91, 129–30; growth of, 148

  Friday dress policy, 135

  FSA (Financial Services Authority), UK, 1–2, 67, 77, 98, 105, 124, 163, 180, 243; prohibition orders, 4; suspension, 5

  ‘Full Amount’ call, weakness indicator, 143

  funding costs:, averages, 104; LIBOR signalling, 97; -market liquidity relation, 44

  futures contracts: agricultural, 120; cash-settled, 125; transparent exchanges, 63

  FX (foreign exchange) market, 172, 196, 245; bank price influence, 212; big banks domination/market concentration, 193, 195, 210, 212, 223, 234; ‘clear the decks’, 210; ‘community’, 190; ethical problem, 213; global banks 2014 fines, 188; interbank spread survey, 228; interest rate markets joining, 31; Japanese banks borrowing, 33; London ‘banging the close’; 209; non-public information grey zone, 224; order books, 7; reciprocity, 224; scale of significance, 126, 192, 232; spot market desk, 214, 217; standardised norms, 194; swap market, see below; ‘The Cartel’, 220; traders, see below; turnover scale, 212

  FX swap market, 134, 137, 145, 146; interest rate speculation, 133; Japanese traders, 34; lower credit risk, 137, 144; 9/11 trading, 265; spot-prices, 31, 227

  FX traders, 191; club mentality, 269; desks, 30; respect among, 269; secret code us, 219; ‘techniques’, 204; varied backgrounds, 216

  Gelboim, Ellen, 153

  gentlemen’s agreements, 141

  ‘getting married to your position’, trading attitude, 257–8

  global merchandise exports, growth, 112

  Goldman Sachs, 49, 140, 193, 223, 272

  Goodhart, Charles, 173

  Greece, 2015 ATM queues, 109

  Greenspan, Alan, 15, 51, 173–4

  Greenwald, Bruce, 225

  guilt, feelings of, 78, 169, 243, 259

  Häyhä, Simo (‘White Death’), 65

  ‘Hambros’, 194

  Harley, Dean, 231

  Hayes, Tom, 8, 13, 72, 92–3, 115, 238; prison sentence, 12

  HBOS, 183

  headhunters, 160

  HELIBOR (Helsinki Interbank Offered Rate), 28

  Hester, Stephen, 284

  Hintz, Brad, 10

  HSBC, bank, 27, 153, 155, 188, 193, 208, 213, 223; FCA fine, 219; FX trading, 116, 187; Group Management Training College, 187; Stockholm, 31

  Hull, John, 150

  Hunger Games series, 255

  Hyogo Bank default, 33

  ICAP, 86, 101, 175; LIBOR fine, 85

  ICMA (International Capital Market Association), 174

  IKB bank, 50; rollover problems, 49

  illiquidity, temporary, 43

  Indonesia, financial crisis, 36

  Industrial Bank of Japan, 34

  ‘industry’, financial, 154–5

  information: LIBOR delays problem, 49, 54; big banks superior, 210

  instincts, 226

  interbank money market, 38; central bank influence, 39; efficiency estimate change, 109; lending fall, 111; LIBOR, see below

  interest rate(s): benchmarks, 14; central banks forecasts, 166; changes impact of, 38; derivatives, 17, 174; hedging, 128; movement, 42; short-term, 28, 133; swaps sizes, 142

  International Code of Conduct and Practice for the, 216

  International Monetary Market (IMM), 72; contracts conventions, 126; LIBOR fixings, 73–4

  investment banks, risk takers, 272

  Ireland, Financial Regulator, 4, 168, 281

  IRS, interest rate swap, 129–30; short-term, 140

  ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Association), 174; fix, 14

  Japan: bank sector/system: crisis, 47, 81; dollars difficulty period, 34; fear premium, 36; Financial Services Agency, 101; FX market concentration, 193; FX ‘premium’, 35–6; safe perception change, 33; unique derivatives market, 36; yen market, 8, 45

  JP Morgan/JP Morgan Chase, 92, 105, 153, 178, 188, 192–3, 220–3

  Kahneman, Daniel, 255

  Kerviel, Jérôme, 250

  Keynes, J.M., General Theory of Employm
ent, 102

  Kipling, Rudyard, 127

  KLIBOR (Kuala Lumpur), 37

  Knight, Angela, 107

  Lapavitsas, Costas, 6–7

  layering, 204

  Leeson, Nick, 250

  ‘legacy issues’, 236

  Lehman Brothers, 2, 10, 48–9, 59, 105, 162, 272; bankruptcy filing, 160; collapse of aftermath, 96

  Lewis, Ken, 164

  LIBOR, 19, 28, 76–7, 104, 127, 130, 147, 209, 234, 265; anti-competitive process, 186; banking lobby regulated, 180–1; ‘barometer of fear’, 96; benchmark significance, 192, 225; central banks perfection assumption, 49; controls deception, 184; crisis-induced ‘stickiness’, 106; crucial price, 13; daily individual quotes, 97; derivatives, see below; ‘Eurodollar futures’ origin, 126; FCA regulated, 282; ‘fear’ index, 15; fixing panels, see below; future direction of, 38; inaccuracy possibilities, 74; interbank money market gauge, 39; jurisdiction issue, 115; manipulation, 7, 12, 14, 78; manipulation impossibility assumption, 81; market-determined perception, 88, 149; mechanism, 104; minute change importance, 73; new unpredictability, 62; 1980s invention, 111; objective process ‘evidence’, 148; perception of, 119; players as referees, 80; post 2007 interest, 53; pre-2013 unregulated, 118; predicting difficulty, 70; regulatory oversight lack, 179; retail credit impact, 277; sanctioned secrecy, 181–2; savings and borrowings dominance, 107; scandal breaking, 81; state measure use, 151; three-months, 71; ‘too big to fail’, 279; use of limited post-scandal, 278

  LIBOR derivatives market, 8, 45, 137–8, 232; autonomous development of, 111; banks made, 125; ‘community’, 190; -FX connected, 189; imaginary money market, 148; increased abstraction of, 144–6

  LIBOR panel banks, 74–5, 79, 98, 118, 172, 282; -LIBOR implications, 52 big banks dominated, 173, 179–80; fixing process, 75; membership criteria, 184–5; punishment idea, 108; post-scandal membership, 186

  LIBOR scandal, 77, 152, 167, 245; correctness attempts, 277; post- definition unchanged, 278; breaking of, 81; Wall Street Journal on, 238

  LIBOR-OIS spread(s), 51, 54–5, 99, 151

  LIFFE, 126–7

  liquidity: and credit crunch 2008, 2; credit issues, 45; informal norms need, 284; provision ‘duty’ 229; risk, 42–3, 55, 70

  Lloyds Bank, 153, 183; LIBOR fine, 83

  long/short positions, 26

 

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