AFTER THE SHEIKHS
‘It is almost forty years since the publication of Fred Halliday’s landmark book Arabia Without Sultans. Now, in the wake of the Arab spring, another young British academic has written an important account of prospects for the Gulf region … Orientalist special pleading doesn’t get a look in. This is an unsentimental story of hard-nosed political calculation, conspicuous consumption, opaque budgets and sovereign wealth funds.’
Ian Black, The Guardian
‘What is the secret of the Gulf monarchies’ survival? There are numerous reasons. The support of Western powers, oil wealth and an effective secret police are among them. But in this exceptionally argued book, Christopher Davidson concentrates on the prime reason: the Gulf monarchies enjoy considerable legitimacy from their populations. … This fine-tuned monarchical resilience, Davidson argues, cannot be sustained for much longer. Immense internal pressures are building up and the pressure-cooker is about to explode. Davidson marshals an impressive array of evidence.’
Ziauddin Sardar, The Independent
‘Britain and the US are uncritical friends of the hereditary Gulf rulers; but what if they are likely to collapse, as Christopher Davidson convincingly predicts? It would be folly to ignore the writing on the wall for these insatiably greedy elites; Davidson’s warning should be on the desk of every Foreign Office Minister.’
Lord Avebury, vice-chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Human Rights Group
‘Davidson argues that the Gulf regimes will be gone—at least in their current form—within the next two to five years. This audacious prediction should not be lightly dismissed. The dynamics he analyses and the facts he has gathered, based on long-term observation of the region, provide tantalising clues that profound change may indeed be at close hand.’
Dirk Vandewalle, Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College
‘After the Sheikhs is a book of tremendous value. It applies a rigorously constructed theoretical framework to a rich array of empirical data in order to assess the long-term survivability of some of the world’s last authoritarian holdouts. For anyone interested in understanding the post-2011 Middle East, this is essential reading.’
Mehran Kamrava, Director of the Center for International and Regional Studies, Georgetown University, Qatar
‘At a time when the Gulf Kingdoms arrogantly boast of having avoided the fate of their neighbours in the revolutions of the Arab Spring, this book provides a convincing counter-narrative and a powerful warning to rulers who treat their countries as personal fiefdoms.’
Waleed Abu Alkair, head of Monitor of Human Rights in Saudi Arabia
‘This book must be read by every Western policymaker betting on the status quo in the GCC, by every pro-democracy activist struggling to realise Davidson’s predicted outcome, and by every GCC citizen dreaming of a better future but made to fear the worst if change was to come.’
Ala’a Shehabi, writer, pro-democracy activist, founder, Bahrain Watch
AFTER THE SHEIKHS
The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies
CHRISTOPHER M. DAVIDSON
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Davidson, Christopher M. (Christopher Michael)
After the sheikhs : the coming collapse of the gulf monarchies / Christopher Davidson.
p. cm.
Summary: “Noted Gulf expert Christopher Davidson contends that the collapse of these kings, emirs, and sultans is going to happen, and was always going to”
— Provided by publisher.
ISBN 978-0-19-933064-5 (hardback)
1. Persian Gulf States—Politics and government—21st century. 2. Saudi Arabia—Politics and government—21st century. 3. Monarchy—Persian Gulf States. 4. Monarchy—Saudi
Arabia. I. Title.
JQ1840.D38 2013
320.9536—dc23
2013014438
1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2
Printed in India
on Acid-Free Paper
CONTENTS
Preface and Acknowledgements
Acronyms
Introduction
The revolutions that never came
Explaining monarchical survival
Further explanations
1. State Formation and Economic Development
Origins of the Gulf monarchies
Britain and the early order
Independence and state formation
Economic development trajectories
2. Explaining Survival—Domestic Matters
Distributing wealth
National elites
Co-opting expatriates
Cults of personality
Heritage and history
Co-opting religion
Environmental credentials
3. Explaining Survival—External Matters
Development assistance and international charity
Active neutrality: peacekeeping and mediation
Soft power in the West: strategic investments and development assistance
Soft power in the West: cultural institutions
Soft power in the West: financing universities and manipulating research
Soft power in the East: China and Japan
4. Mounting Internal Pressures
Resources, populations, and subsidies
Voluntary unemployment
Squandering wealth
Poverty and real unemployment
Discrimination, statelessness, and sectarianism
Censorship and limiting expression
5. Mounting External Pressures
Welcoming foreigners and eroding legitimacy
Western bases and armaments
Antagonising Iran
Israel: the unholy alliance
Division and disunity
Interference and coups d’état
6. The Coming Collapse
Evolving opposition
Modernising forces
Countering the Arab Spring: the wrong side of history
Bahrain: rage and revolution
Oman: protests and promises
Saudi Arabia: the cracks appearing
Kuwait: ‘The People’s Spring’
United Arab Emirates: opposition emerges
Qatar: champion or charlatan?
Conclusion
Postscript
Notes
Bibliography
Index
PREFACE AND AC
KNOWLEDGEMENTS
I began researching and writing After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies in summer 2009 from the confines of my temporary office at Kyoto University. The original idea for the book, however, occurred to me back in 2002, when I was still writing up my PhD. Intrigued by several frank and discreet discussions when living in the UAE’s northernmost emirate of Ra’s al-Khaimah, I was determined to burrow beneath the hype and gauge the true extent of loyalty to traditional monarchies in such states, especially in communities with less favourable economic circumstances. Since then, much has changed in the region, with oil price shocks, credit crunches, property bubbles, terror campaigns, rampant sectarianism, and of course full blown revolutions on its doorstep. Although largely unforeseen and at first difficult to understand, I found that most of these events and their associated impacts helped to strengthen my thesis and—more importantly—they strengthened my resolve to finish the manuscript as soon as possible. Although the book was never intended to be a crystal ball it is worth noting that the original, 2009 version forecast the collapse of most of the Gulf monarchies within the next decade. In contrast, this final 2012 version contends that most of these regimes—at least in their present form—will be gone within the next two to five years.
A very large number of individuals deserve my thanks. Over the past few years they have provided encouragement, fact-checking, fascinating pieces of information, and—on occasion—some necessary criticism. These include academics, human rights and pro-democracy activists, members of several political societies and religious organisations, government employees from all six gulf monarchies and neighbouring states, and of course a small army of concerned citizens and expatriates. I am also very thankful to the following universities for inviting me to give lectures on earlier, prototype versions of this book: the London School of Economics, Oxford, St. Andrews, Yale, Stanford, and Otago. The feedback I received from such well-informed audiences undoubtedly helped me shape my thoughts.
Above all I thank my indefatigable publisher, Michael Dwyer, and all of his team at C. Hurst & Co.
ACRONYMS
ADBIC
Abu Dhabi Basic Industries Corporation
ADEC
Abu Dhabi Executive Council
ADFAD
Abu Dhabi Fund for Arab Development
ADFD
Abu Dhabi Fund for Development
ADFEC
Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company
ADIA
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
ADNCC
Abu Dhabi National Consultative Council
ADNOC
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company
AQAP
Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula
Aramco
Arabian American Oil Company
ATP
Association of Tennis Professionals
Bapco
Bahrain Petroleum Company
BCHR
Bahrain Centre for Human Rights
CENTCOM
US Central Command
CEO
chief executive office
CIA
Central Intelligence Agency (of the US)
CNPC
China National Petroleum Corporation
COM
Council of Ministers (of the UAE)
DIC
Dubai International Capital
DIFC
Dubai International Financial Centre
DLF
Dhofar Liberation Front
DPW
Dubai Ports World
EAD
Environmental Agency Abu Dhabi
ECHR
Emirates Centre for Human Rights
EDB
Economic Development Board (of Bahrain)
EMAL
Emirates Aluminium
ENOC
Emirates National Oil Company
EPPCO
Emirates Petroleum Products Company
F1
Formula One
FIFA
Fédération International de Football Association
FNC
Federal National Council (of the UAE)
FTA
free trade agreement
GCC
Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf
GDP
gross domestic product
HH
his highness
HIV
human immunodeficiency virus
HRH
his royal highness
ICBC
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
ICC
International Criminal Court
ICD
Investment Corporation of Dubai
IDEX
International Defence Exhibition (of Abu Dhabi)
IMF
International Monetary Fund
IPIC
International Petroleum Investment Company (of Abu Dhabi)
IPC
Iraqi Petroleum Company
IRENA
International Renewable Energy Agency
ISP
internet service provider
JAFZ
Jebel Ali Free Zone (of Dubai)
JETRO
Japan External Trade Organisation
JODCO
Japan Oil Development Company
KAUST
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
KCIC
Kuwait-China Investment Company
KFAS
Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences
KFAED
Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development
KIA
Kuwait Investment Authority
KIPCO
Kuwait Projects Company
LSE
London School of Economics and Political Science
NYU
New York University
ODA
official development assistance
OECD
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OPEC
Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
P&O
Peninsula and Orient Steam Navigation Company
PDRY
People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen
PFLOAP
Popular Front for the Liberation of the Occupied Arabian Gulf
PRC
People’s Republic of China
PGA
Professional Golfers Association
PIN
personal identification number
QIA
Qatar Investment Authority
QPC
Qatar Petroleum Company
QSI
Qatar Sports Investments
QE2
Queen Elizabeth 2 cruise liner
RAND
Research and Development Corporation
SABIC
Saudi Arabian Basic Industries Corporation
SCR
Supreme Council of Rulers (of the UAE)
Sinopec
China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation
SMS
short message service
SPC
Supreme Petroleum Council (of the UAE)
TDIC
Tourism and Development Investment Company (of Abu Dhabi)
UAE
United Arab Emirates
UCL
University College London
UK
United Kingdom (of Great Britain and Northern Ireland)
UN
United Nations
UNDP
United Nations Development Programme
UNESCO
United Nations Education, Scientific, and Cultural Organisation
UNICEF
United Nations Children’s Fund
UNRWA
United Nations Relief and Works Agency
UNSC
UN Security Council
US
United States (of America)
USSR
Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
VAT
value added tax
WTO
World Trade Organisation
ZCCF
Zayed Centre for Coordination and Follow-Up
INTRODUCTION
Central to the stability of the world’s oil and gas industries and home to the birthplace of Islam, Saudi Arabia and its five smaller neighbours—the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain—have long fascinated scholars, diplomats, and journalists. In recent years international interest in the ‘Gulf monarchies’ of the Arabian Peninsula has soared. Not only have they played a key role in the War on Terror—on both sides of the conflict—but they also now account for the lion’s share of the Arab World’s gross domestic product1 founded on ever-rising trade flows, financial zones, tourism, and even real estate sectors.
Since their formation and in some cases independence in the mid-twentieth century, the Gulf monarchies have remained governed by highly autocratic and—as many have argued—seemingly anachronistic regimes. Nevertheless, their rulers have demonstrated remarkable resilience despite having bloody conflicts on their doorsteps, fast-growing populations, and powerful modernising and globalising forces impacting on largely conservative societies. Obituaries for these traditional polities have frequently been penned—in some cases by leading commentators—but even now, well into the twenty-first century, these absolutist, almost medieval entities still appear to defy their critics. If anything, with the 2011and 2012 ‘Arab Spring’ revolutions that have been sweeping aside the region’s republics and accelerating the fall of other incumbent presidents, the apparently steadfast Gulf monarchies have, at first glance, re-affirmed their status as the Middle East’s only real bastion of stability. Even when violence and unrest erupted in some of their cities, this was largely contained, and the integrity of monarchy as a legitimate political system was ostensibly maintained. After all, as the lickspittle spokesmen and legions of public relations consultants employed by the Gulf monarchies are usually quick to point out, these states are somehow different: they are not ‘dictatorships’ and should thus be immune from precipitate political upheaval.
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