9. Neil L. Jamieson, Understanding Vietnam, University of California Press, Berkeley, 1993, pp. 8–10.
10. Keith Weller Taylor, The Birth of Vietnam, University of California Press, Berkeley, 1983, pp. 298, xix–xxi.
11. Ricklefs, Lockhart, Lau, Reyes, and Aung-Thwin, A New History of Southeast Asia, pp. 7, 34.
12. Templer, Shadows and Wind, p. 297.
13. Lee, From Third World to First, p. 314.
14. Thayer, “Vietnam’s Defensive Diplomacy.”
15. Jamieson, Understanding Vietnam, p. 235.
CHAPTER IV: CONCERT OF CIVILIZATIONS?
1. Thorstein Veblen, The Theory of the Leisure Class, Oxford University Press, New York, (1899) 2007, pp. xix–xx, 24, 59, 60–61, 75.
2. V. S. Naipaul, Among the Believers: An Islamic Journey, André Deutsch, London, 1981, pp. 270, 272.
3. V. S. Naipaul, Beyond Belief: Islamic Excursions Among the Converted Peoples, Random House, New York, 1998, p. 365.
4. Ernest Gellner, Muslim Society, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1981, pp. 1–2, 4.
5. Clifford Geertz, The Interpretation of Cultures, Basic Books, New York, 1973, p. 36.
6. Ibid., p. 283.
7. Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Simon & Schuster, New York, 1996.
8. Harold Crouch, Government and Society in Malaysia, Cornell University Press, Ithaca, New York, 1996, pp. 20–21, 23.
9. Virginia Matheson Hooker, A Short History of Malaysia: Linking East and West, Allen & Unwin, Crows Nest, Australia, 2003, pp. 27–28.
10. M. C. Ricklefs, Bruce Lockhart, Alber Lau, Portia Reyes, and Maitrii Aung-Thwin, A New History of Southeast Asia, Palgrave Macmillan, New York, 2010, p. 110.
11. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, p. 82.
12. Samuel P. Huntington, “The Clash of Civilizations?,” Foreign Affairs, New York, July/August 1993.
13. Joel S. Kahn, Other Malays: Nationalism and Cosmopolitanism in the Modern Malay World, University of Hawai’i Press, Honolulu, 2006, p. 55.
14. Anthony Milner, The Malays, Wiley-Blackwell, Malden, Massachusetts, 2008, pp. 49, 238.
15. Malays and Indonesians essentially spoke the same language, even as the culture of Java was more richly endowed materially speaking.
16. Leonard Y. Andaya, Leaves of the Same Tree: Trade and Ethnicity in the Straits of Melaka, University of Hawai’i Press, Honolulu, 2008, pp. 18–19, 80–81.
17. Ibid., pp. 108, 124.
18. Joseph Chinyong Liow, Piety and Politics: Islamism in Contemporary Malaysia, Oxford University Press, New York, 2009, pp. xi, 192.
19. Milner, The Malays, pp. 14, 216, 219.
20. Banyan, “The Haze and the Malaise: Ethnic Politics Makes Malaysia’s Transition to a Contested Democracy Fraught and Ugly,” The Economist, London, September 10, 2011.
21. John Stuart Mill, On Liberty, Introduction by Gertrude Himmelfarb, Penguin, New York, (1859) 1974, p. 34; John Stuart Mill, Considerations on Representative Government, Digireads.com, Lawrence, Kansas, 1861, p. 162.
22. Barry Wain, Malaysian Maverick: Mahathir Mohamad in Turbulent Times, Palgrave Macmillan, New York, 2009, pp. 3–4, 8, 10–11, 25–26, 29; Crouch, Government and Society in Malaysia, pp. 156–57; Mahathir Mohamad, The Malay Dilemma, Marshall Cavendish, Tarrytown, New York, (1970) 2008.
23. Wain, Malaysian Maverick, pp. 86–87, 217, 219–20, 227, 236–37, 243.
24. Ibid., pp. 54, 85, 341; Hooker, A Short History of Malaysia, p. 272.
25. Crouch, Government and Society in Malaysia, pp. vii, 4–7, 56, 75, 150–51, 189, 192.
26. Ibid., p. 246.
27. The other rocks with a Malaysian military presence are Mariveles Reef, Ardasier Reef, Erica Reef, and Investigator Reef.
CHAPTER V: THE GOOD AUTOCRAT
1. The Singaporeans have since relieved their dependence on Malaysia for freshwater considerably by desalination projects, sewage recycling, and the tapping of rainwater.
2. Robert D. Kaplan, Hog Pilots, Blue Water Grunts: The American Military in the Air, at Sea, and on the Ground, Random House, New York, 2007, pp. 96, 98.
3. Owen Harries, “Harry Lee’s Story,” The National Interest, Washington, June 1999.
4. Lee Kuan Yew, The Singapore Story, Times Editions, Singapore, 1998, pp. 74, 77, 131.
5. Lee Kuan Yew, From Third World to First: Singapore and the Asian Economic Boom, HarperCollins, New York, 2000; Plutarch, The Lives of the Noble Grecians and Romans, trans. John Dryden (1683–86), rev. Arthur Hugh Clough (1864), Modern Library, New York, 1992.
6. Lee, The Singapore Story, p. 23.
7. Ibid., pp. 202–3; Harries, “Harry Lee’s Story”; Kaplan, Hog Pilots, Blue Water Grunts, p. 97.
8. Lee, The Singapore Story, pp. 207, 211, 228, 322, 324, 427.
9. M. C. Ricklefs, Bruce Lockhart, Alber Lau, Portia Reyes, and Maitrii Aung-Thwin, A New History of Southeast Asia, Palgrave Macmillan, New York, 2010, p. 337.
10. Lee, The Singapore Story, p. 539.
11. Ibid., pp. 474, 558, 608, 610–11.
12. Ibid., p. 640.
13. Ibid., p. 649.
14. Lee, From Third World to First, p. 47.
15. Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince, trans. Russell Price, Cambridge University Press, New York, (1513) 1988.
16. Lee, From Third World to First, pp. 53, 106.
17. Ibid., pp. 57–58, 159.
18. Ibid., pp. 166, 173–74, 182–83, 185, 213.
19. Ibid., p. 452.
20. Ibid., p. 467.
21. Hugh White, The China Choice: Why America Should Share Power, Black, Inc., Collingwood, Australia, 2012, p. 12.
22. John Stuart Mill, On Liberty, Penguin, New York, (1859) 1974, p. 68.
23. Ibid., pp. 86–87.
24. Ibid.
25. Ibid., p. 69.
26. John Stuart Mill, Considerations on Representative Government, Digireads.com, Lawrence, Kansas, 1861, p. 121.
27. Isaiah Berlin, Four Essays on Liberty, Oxford University Press, New York, 1969, p. xlii.
28. Isaiah Berlin, “Two Concepts of Liberty,” 1958, in ibid., pp. 124, 129–30.
29. Mill, Considerations on Representative Government, pp. 116, 118.
30. Ibid., pp. 143, 161.
31. Aristotle, The Politics, translated and with an introduction, notes, and glossary by Carnes Lord, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1984, pp. 66, 120.
32. Mill, Considerations on Representative Government, p. 124.
33. Leo Strauss, On Tyranny: Including the Strauss-Kojeve Correspondence, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1961, pp. 45, 55, 57.
CHAPTER VI: AMERICA’S COLONIAL BURDEN
1. Jillian Keenan, “The Grim Reality Behind the Philippines’ Economic Growth,” www.TheAtlantic.com, Washington, D.C., May 7, 2013.
2. Ibid.
3. Stanley Karnow, In Our Image: America’s Empire in the Philippines, Random House, New York, 1989, pp. 12, 119.
4. Robert D. Kaplan, Imperial Grunts: On the Ground with the American Military, from Mongolia to the Philippines to Iraq and Beyond, Random House, New York, 2005, pp. 136–37.
5. Max Boot, The Savage Wars of Peace: Small Wars and the Rise of American Power, Basic Books, New York, 2002, p. 125.
6. Karnow, In Our Image, p. 140.
7. Kaplan, Imperial Grunts, p. 139.
8. Karnow, In Our Image, p. 197.
9. Samuel K. Tan, The Filipino-American War, 1899–1913, University of the Philippines Press, Quezon City, 2002, p. 256.
10. Ibid.
11. Kaplan, Imperial Grunts, p. 140.
12. Ibid., pp. 140–41.
13. P. Kreuzer, “Philippine Governance: Merging Politics and Crime,” Peace Research Institute, Frankfurt, 2009.
14. Karnow, In Our Image, p. 366.
15. John Minnich, “The Philippines’ Imperatives in a Competitive Region,” www.Stratfor.com, Austin, Texas, June 18, 2012
.
16. Ibid.
17. Scarborough Shoal or Shoals, labeled as Scarborough Reef on some maps, is named after the British East India Company tea trade ship Scarborough, wrecked on one of its rocks on September 12, 1784, with everyone aboard perishing.
18. James Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara, “Small-Stick Diplomacy in the South China Sea,” www.nationalinterest.org, Washington, D.C., April 23, 2012; Max Boot, “China Starts to Claim the Seas: The U.S. Sends a Signal of Weakness over the Scarborough Shoal,” Wall Street Journal, New York, June 25, 2012.
19. Mischief Reef was discovered in 1791 by Henry Spratly and named by the German sailor Herbert Mischief, one of his crew. Henry Spratly is oddly no relation to Richard Spratly, the nineteenth-century British sailor for whom the islands west of the Philippines are named.
CHAPTER VII: ASIA’S BERLIN
1. Joseph Conrad, “Typhoon,” Typhoon and Other Stories, G. P. Putnam’s Sons, New York, 1902.
2. Taiwan not only makes all the territorial claims that mainland China does, but also claims Mongolia, with which the mainland has a peace treaty.
3. Kuan-Hsiung Wang, “The ROC’s [Republic of China’s] Maritime Claims and Practices with Special Reference to the South China Sea,” Ocean Development and International Law, Routledge, London, 2010.
4. The Taiwanese have also exercised jurisdiction over nearby Sand Cay, also in the Spratlys.
5. James R. Holmes, associate professor of strategy, Naval War College, in conversation at the Center for a New American Security, Washington, D.C., 2011.
6. Jonathan Manthorpe, Forbidden Nation: A History of Taiwan, Palgrave Macmillan, New York, 2005, pp. xi, 21–22, 25.
7. Ibid., pp. 80, 83–96.
8. Ibid., pp. 111–12.
9. Ibid., p. 225.
10. Bill Emmott, Rivals: How the Power Struggle Between China, India, and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade, Allen Lane, London, 2008, p. 236.
11. Aaron L. Friedberg, A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia, W. W. Norton, New York, 2011, pp. 218–19.
12. John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, W. W. Norton, New York, 2001.
13. Joseph S. Nye Jr., Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics, PublicAffairs, New York, 2004.
14. James R. Holmes, “Taiwan’s Navy Gets Stealthy,” The Diplomat, Tokyo, April 30, 2012.
15. Robin Kwong and David Pilling, “Taiwan’s Trade Link with China Set to Grow,” Financial Times, London, March 7, 2011.
16. Jay Taylor, The Generalissimo: Chiang Kai-shek and the Struggle for Modern China, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2009, p. 399.
17. Jonathan Fenby, Chiang Kai-shek: China’s Generalissimo and the Nation He Lost, Carroll & Graf, New York, 2003, pp. 12–13.
18. Theodore H. White, In Search of History: A Personal Adventure, Harper & Row, New York, 1978, pp. 116, 118, 150, 159, 176–77, 179, 182, 195–97; Taylor, The Generalissimo, p. 31.
19. Taylor, The Generalissimo, pp. 2, 12, 14.
20. Ibid., pp. 21–22, 51–52, 89–90.
21. Fenby, Chiang Kai-shek, pp. 501, 503; Taylor, The Generalissimo, p. 152.
22. Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined, Viking, New York, 2011, p. 195.
23. Taylor, The Generalissimo, pp. 7, 192, 213–14, 220, 297; Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature, p. 195; Fenby, Chiang Kai-shek, p. 253.
24. Barbara W. Tuchman, Stilwell and the American Experience in China, 1911–1945, Macmillan, New York, 1970, pp. 93, 322, 379, 412, 464.
25. Ibid., p. 531; Fenby, Chiang Kai-shek, p. 380; Taylor, The Generalissimo, p. 400.
26. Taylor, The Generalissimo, pp. 411–12, 414, 419, 485, 487–88, 589.
CHAPTER VIII: THE STATE OF NATURE
1. Lyle Goldstein, “Chinese Naval Strategy in the South China Sea: An Abundance of Noise and Smoke, but Little Fire,” Contemporary Southeast Asia, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 2011.
2. Jonathan Holslag, “Seas of Troubles: China and the New Contest for the Western Pacific,” Institute of Contemporary China Studies, Brussels, 2011.
3. David C. Kang, East Asia Before the West: Five Centuries of Trade and Tribute, Columbia University Press, New York, 2010, pp. 2, 4, 8, 10, 11.
4. Gideon Rachman, “Political Crises or Civil War Will Not Stop China,” Financial Times, London, March 20, 2012.
5. Mark C. Elliott, Emperor Qianlong: Son of Heaven, Man of the World, Longman, New York, 2009, p. 126.
6. Aristotle, The Politics, trans. Carnes Lord, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1984, p. 153.
7. Kenneth N. Waltz, Realism and International Politics, Routledge, New York, 2008, pp. 59, 152, 200.
8. Harvey Mansfield and Nathan Tarcov, Introduction to Machiavelli’s Discourses on Livy, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1996.
9. Paul Kennedy, “The Pivot of History: The U.S. Needs to Blend Democratic Ideals with Geopolitical Wisdom,” The Guardian, London, June 19, 2004.
10. “East Asia and Pacific Economic Update (2010),” World Bank, Washington, D.C.
11. Clive Schofield and Ian Storey, “The South China Sea Dispute: Increasing Stakes and Rising Tensions,” Jamestown Foundation, Washington, D.C., November 2009.
12. John C. Baker and David G. Wiencek, “Cooperative Monitoring in the South China Sea: Satellite Imagery, Confidence-Building Measures, and the Spratly Islands Dispute,” Praeger, Westport, Connecticut, 2002.
13. Nick A. Owen and Clive H. Schofield, “Disputed South China Sea Hydrocarbons in Perspective,” Marine Policy 36 (3), May 2011.
14. Ian Storey, “China’s Diplomatic Engagement in the South China Sea,” Institute of Southeast Asia Studies, Singapore, 2011.
15. M. Taylor Fravel, “Maritime Security in the South China Sea and the Competition over Maritime Rights,” Center for a New American Security, Washington, D.C., 2012.
16. Peter A. Dutton, “Cracks in the Global Foundation: International Law and Instability in the South China Sea,” Center for a New American Security, Washington, D.C., 2012.
17. Hillary Clinton, “Asia’s Pacific Century,” Foreign Policy, Washington, D.C., September/October 2011.
18. Aristotle, The Politics, p. 114.
19. Stanley A. Weiss, “Imagining ‘Eastphalia,’ ” Strategic Review, Jakarta, January/March 2012.
20. Holslag, “Seas of Troubles.”
21. Jacques deLisle, “China’s Claims and the South China Sea,” Orbis, Philadelphia, Fall 2012.
22. Robert Kagan, The World America Made, Alfred A. Knopf, New York, 2012.
23. Jonathan Holslag, Trapped Giant: China’s Military Rise, Routledge Journals, Oxfordshire, 2011, pp. 31–35, 44–45, 48. Holslag’s sources include the following: Park Sung-hyea and Peter Chu, “Thermal and Haline Fronts in the Yellow/East China Sea,” Journal of Oceanography (62); and Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and William S. Murray, “Chinese Mine Warfare,” China Maritime Study, U.S. Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island, June 2009.
24. “China Enhances Its Maritime Capabilities,” www.Stratfor.com, Austin, Texas, May 12, 2012.
25. Holslag, Trapped Giant, p. 56.
26. Ibid., p. 64, map and commentary.
27. John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, W. W. Norton, New York, 2001, p. 401.
28. M. Taylor Fravel, discussion on the South China Sea, Center for a New American Security, Washington, D.C., 2011.
29. Robert B. Strassler, The Landmark Thucydides: A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War, Free Press, New York, 1996, p. 16.
30. James Kurth, “Confronting a Powerful China with Western Characteristics,” Orbis, Philadelphia, Winter 2012.
31. Michael Auslin, “Security in the Indo-Pacific Commons: Towards a Regional Strategy,” American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C., December 2010.
32. Sumit Ganguly and Manjeet S. Pardesi, “Can China and
India Rise Peacefully?,” Orbis, Philadelphia, Summer 2012.
33. Hugh White, The China Choice: Why America Should Share Power, Black, Inc., Collingwood, Australia, 2012, p. 71.
EPILOGUE: THE SLUMS OF BORNEO
1. Nigel Barley, White Rajah: A Biography of Sir James Brooke, Little, Brown, London, 2002; S. Baring-Gould and C. A. Bampflyde, A History of Sarawak: Under Its Two White Rajahs, 1839–1908, Synergy, Kuala Lumpur, (1909) 2007.
2. I write about Indonesia at length in Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power, Random House, New York, 2010, Chapter 13.
BY ROBERT D. KAPLAN
Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific
The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate
Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power
Hog Pilots, Blue Water Grunts: The American Military in the Air, at Sea, and on the Ground
Imperial Grunts: On the Ground with the American Military, from Mongolia to the Philippines to Iraq and Beyond
Mediterranean Winter: The Pleasures of History and Landscape in Tunisia, Sicily, Dalmatia, and Greece
Warrior Politics: Why Leadership Demands a Pagan Ethos
Eastward to Tartary: Travels in the Balkans, the Middle East, and the Caucasus
The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post Cold War
An Empire Wilderness: Travels into America’s Future
The Ends of the Earth: From Togo to Turkmenistan, from Iraq to Cambodia, a Journey to the Frontiers of Anarchy
The Arabists: The Romance of an American Elite
Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History
Soldiers of God: With Islamic Warriors in Afghanistan and Pakistan
Surrender or Starve: Travels in Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea
About the Author
ROBERT D. KAPLAN is chief geopolitical analyst for Stratfor, a private global intelligence firm. He is the author of fifteen books on foreign affairs and travel, including The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate, Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power, Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History, and Warrior Politics: Why Leadership Demands a Pagan Ethos. He has been a foreign correspondent for The Atlantic for nearly three decades. In 2011 and 2012 he was named by Foreign Policy magazine as one of the world’s Top 100 Global Thinkers.
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