by Matt J. Pike
Now, it may well not have been TTP. For that to have happened they would’ve had to extend their road network a long, long way. We only heard the sounds of the big rig for the first time the other day – and that probably took a perfect storm of weather conditions and wind direction... but I feel that’s an epic undertaking in a short space of time. I mean, I don’t know how far they can clear in a day... but if they did hit TTP, they must’ve started to plan that the day their sorry asses returned from the city after an ass kicking. Either way, it’s odds-on they’ve eliminated someone. And, for the sake of the theory, we’ll stay with TTP. It makes sense, too. Lose against us, what’s their next move? A shopping centre. TTP’s the biggest.
As for the road networks we know about, there are theories there, too. Firstly, if they’ve joined the same dots I had in the early days about the how far the tsunami got above sea level, therefore which shopping centres survived, well, they’d know the big ones were TTP, Burnside and Mitcham. Now, there’s also a Woolworths at Fullarton which, while smaller than the other sites, had some potential. We know the hubbers have been using Osmond Tce for transport. If they had both Burnside and Fullarton in mind, Osmond Tce is the perfect route south for them... they could work their way through to Greenhill Rd, then take a left for Burnside and a right for Fullarton.
I mean, it’s just a theory, but it does make total sense from what we’ve seen from them recently, what we know about how they operate and what major targets they could identify that stopped them coming back our way until they had exhausted all other options.
The only other option that makes sense… and one we should definitely consider, is they are digging south with plans to get to Greenhill Rd, then head west until they’re in a position to attack the CBD from the south. A giant flanking manoeuvre, essentially to take us by surprise on a front we don’t protect as much.
Even if this isn’t the case for their immediate plans, it’s certainly something we should be monitoring, because they’re opening up channels to make that happen very easily in the future.
As for the goods they unloaded at the end of the day yesterday, well our theory around that is, they’re using the ash sweeper to open up the roads to their end-goal destinations. Meanwhile, the cars follow then raid the new houses they open up along the way. They throw all the newly acquired loot in the back of the big rig as they go, then head back to base before the sun gets too low.
We spent a good couple of hours refining that into a theory from hundreds of suggestions. It stood the test more than anything else we could come up with and all feel it’s not far from the money. I mean, it just makes sense, tactically, from their point of view. It’s a whole lot lower risk than facing us again for now.
We do know that will happen though.
So, if we assume our theory is close to the mark, we can take some guesses as to when we might expect company again. Firstly, thanks to my diaries, we know they retreated from the city on November 6 last year. The big gunfire showdown was on January 24. So, they’ve come up with their plan, built their ash sweeper and burrowed all the way to Tea Tree Plaza in a little over 11 weeks... at the most! That’s some serious pace.
Now they’re heading south.
We don’t know how far they’ve gotten already, but it seems a pretty safe bet Burnside and Fullarton can expect a visit soon... if there’s anyone there.
When we started to get into this line of thought, it made me want to head back out into enemy territory again. I figured it’d be a pretty risk-free move to head out one night near dusk, meet up with the cleared Osmond Tce and head south to see how far they’ve managed to spread. Then, if I repeated the dose the next night, we’d start to have a good idea of their daily progress... and it would come with relatively little risk.
Assuming that is all correct, it’ll be very interesting to see where they’ve got to and whether they head east or west along Greenhill Rd. If they head west there’s the potential we have a more immediate problem than we first thought. If they head west, then don’t turn south again at Fullarton Rd, the odds of them flanking us become so close to 100% that it doesn’t matter – DEFCON 5 situation.
But for now, my money is on the two hubs – it seems like the best play for them if you look at all the information. And even though the hubs (should they still be operating) would be devoid of the food that gathered people there in the first place, they are still the most likely gathering point for those that remain. It just makes sense to stay put once you’ve established a home... and once the resources you have run out... seek to find more to bring back. If there’s people still there, there’ll be food there... and probably most of the food from the surrounding suburbs. That’s a free hit for anyone with guns and cars.
So, knowing where the Norwood crew are targeting (98% sure, with perhaps the other 2% being flanking us)... and being able to suss out how far they’ve gotten and their daily rate of progress, we can get a fairly good gauge of when they might be done on this campaign.
That’s the moment we have to be ready.
There’s also plenty more I’d love to know as I think back to yesterday – things that’ll help work out where they really are, from a resources standpoint. Firstly, how many people do they actually have? I think that is the most crucial piece of information to know. Between those who went on watch, those who drive the fleet, the rest who filled the fleet cars and those who cheered them in and out, we reckon there were at least 150 people... at least. That’s a lot of mouths to feed. And a big fighting force.
Which brings me to their looting. I wonder what was in those bags and suitcases they brought back with them. If it was all filled with food, well, they’ve hit a gold mine. But was it? I mean, house raiding is pretty much a survival 101 tactic, it’s the easiest scavenge there is. While they’ve taken a smart route south to head in the general direction of two separate shopping centres, they’ve also kept themselves below the tsunami line, which would increase their chances of a hit (a yet-to-be looted house), but really, this far along the line, how many areas haven’t had at least one group of desperate or enterprising survivors visit before? And let’s say, generously, their catch was half full of food. How long is that going to feed 150 people? What, an extra week – 10 days? And as they get closer to the other hubs’ territories, you can guarantee that supply line will dry up.
Definite kudos for staying ahead of the game a little longer, but I just know – I absolutely know – it’s not going to be a gravy train. It’s not going to last. And I know where they’ll look when they finish whatever mission they’re on, do the maths again and realise the only move they have to make is us.
That would go double if they managed to get any real intel when they scouted us the other night. Double that again if they got close to the oval and saw everything we are doing.
What we are doing is the future. Everything they have been doing is draining the last of the past. It’s finite. It only leads to one place.
***
January 31, 2015
The mood was good around camp this morning. Last night’s group theorising helped us feel like we knew more about the enemy, which, in a way, gave us comfort. It’s a hard thing to explain, really. I guess it’s the not knowing that plays with your head. It’s like you can handle anything in this world if you know what you’re dealing with. That’s the heart of the mood, I think – relief, perhaps, that we know. And when everyone is in that same space, you notice it, without being able to directly put your finger on why.
We had given ourselves some understanding around their motives and plans and, while that doesn’t change what we all know will be our enemy’s ultimate goal, it does give us some solid framework to plan around. Even if it’s only a theory, it keeps us present and concentrating on the now, not wasting energy worrying about the what-ifs.
Things shifted focus in the war room a bit his morning, too. Jonesy has pulled the pin on his six-car plan. He’s already got the first one sounding sweet again – not
just running but sounding like a healthy car – and he’s going to concentrate on the two that he can get up to speed with the stuff he has in his garage.
Then he’s moving his energy onto the weaponry. One of the newbies – Jonah – is a chippy. So, before he gets back on mechanic duty today, he’s going to draw up some plans for the trebuchet. It’ll be enough to get Jonah started. Then, once we have half the fleet up and running, Jonesy will join him and hopefully the trebuchet magic will happen.
They’re starting work on the second wall today – beginning at the North Tce/East Tce intersection and moving south as they go. Shane’s going to head back there with them to work on his lighting rig.
I’m taking the usual crew back out to enemy territory tonight just on dusk to see what Osmond Tce will show us. Until then, I’ll have a bit of a chill day. When I say chill, I’ll find a way to fill it with things, but I’m not on core survival prep duty. It’s actually been a while since I’ve had some time to choose my own level of productivity. It’s a bit weird.
*
Oh, that’s right, I’ve been meaning to add this. We had a discussion the other night about cars – the collective noun for cars, actually. Fleet is the term everyone is using, but Kent – one of the newbies – was insistent the word mayhem was also a collective noun for cars.
I can’t say I’ve ever heard that term, nor had anyone else. Kent has this look about him, though, that makes us all pretty sure he’s right. He’s got that kind of misfit-adult-permanent-student-intellectual kind of vibe that we’re all prepared to take his word on this one. He also looks like he has a social screw loose, so I’m more than happy to let him have it as a fact.
Anyway, basis of accuracy aside – it’s just the coolest word for a group of cars ever! And it’s totally us. So, from this moment forward our, hopefully growing, group of cars will be known as a mayhem.
It’s the little things that keep you happy in the apocalypse.
*
Actually, now that I have a bit more time, I should mention the newbies. Some of them have taken to oval life like fishes to water, while others are still getting there or integrating in their own way. They all contribute, though. It’s easy to allow a little wiggle room for those still coming to terms with the world of cooperative existence we have here. They all have scars. You don’t get this many months into the new world without them. Everyone’s lost people they loved – most have lost everyone they loved. That’s a cold and barren place to be in a cold and barren place.
So, you just let people be, at one level. Let them come into their own when they’re ready. As long as they’re contributing, they’re invested. And sometimes, that routine, the purpose to get up every morning, the being part of something bigger, well, it can pull you back from some pretty dark places. There’s no timeframe on that either. Everyone’s different. Everyone’s cold and barren place is different. Everyone’s path back from it is different, too.
While it’s not always the case, it’s definitely the ones who have found us as sole survivors who seem to have drifted the furthest. I get that. I’ve been there. After Fi I was in that place. Then I tried to leave the city behind and nearly lost everything on the way. Those two events alone could’ve been the end for me. While I can retrospectively look back at where I have come from and pat myself on the back for my survival genius – both internally and externally – that would be a little big lie. Sure, I had plans, but everything that has happened is really just a series of small steps gaffer taped together with a lot of good timing and good luck, that were well beyond my control. I try not to forget that.
It also draws me to the newbs, particularly those who have come here solo. I know not to push too much with them, but I also know enough to keep an eye on them.
So, here’s the newbies, apart from Alyce and Duncan, who I’ve already discussed.
There’s Ashleigh – in his mid-30s – funny guy. Was an accountant back in the day, but he’s kind of a life all-rounder. Doesn’t bring any specific special skills to the table but he tries hard and learns fast. He’s got his two boys with him, Jacob (14) and Jessie (12). They contribute too... just stuff around the oval, but they are always wanting to do more.
Eliza and Trent are in their early 20s. Both uni students pre-rock. They were on the verge of starvation when they rocked up at the oval. Another two without anything specific to bring to the table but both absolutely committed. They really have come a long way in a few weeks and are back to full strength.
Jonah – the carpenter who’s helping Jonesy on the trebuchet – arrived with his girlfriend Marci and her friend Angie. The three of them are early 20s as well. Marci’s a nail technician and Angie used to pour beers at a bar. The two girls were living a life much removed from survival before the rock hit. Jonah was the provider before they found us… but the flexibility life at the oval offers has allowed each of them to contribute in their own way. They are around-camp kind of girls. Marci has focused her time on clothing – she sifts through each find we bring back and works out what would make for good operational wear and what would work around camp – and who each item should go to. It may not seem like much when compared to, say, Jonesy, but it does make a difference. Angie is great at the feasts and definitely channels her inner bartender to bring everyone into the conversation… even the loners. Especially the loners, actually. We’ve had a few chats around that, but it was not something instructed or suggested, it’s just part of her nature. That’s big for a group like ours. You probably can’t measure it’s value, but I know it’s huge.
Dianne and David are a married couple in their mid-40s. They used to run a business selling pools and spas. He’s got some plumbing skills, which may come in handy. She wears the pants in that relationship, for sure. So if Dianne is happy, David is happy… as a general rule. And they met in the navy back in the day, so both have a few years of military training. While that was half a lifetime ago in one sense for them, it never left in another, and having lived what that structure and team-first attitude means, it seems to have left them tailor made for life at the oval.
Asha is 30. She was one of the survivors to show up by herself. She doesn’t say much and no one’s really got her background story, that I know of. What she lacks in words, she makes up for in actions. She does everything she can around this place to contribute. Strictly nothing resembling domestic duties though, she’s a frontline kind of gal. She put her hand up for lookout duty on her first day and is a permanent fixture on the wall. She’ll also volunteer for anything that involves taking risks, rolling her sleeves up and getting dirty… whatever.
The other two loners were Travis – who discovered the footprints on lookout duty the other day – and Kent.
Trav is really starting to integrate after that, but he was definitely in his own headspace when he rocked up. From the sounds of it, he’s been a job here and a job there sort of guy his whole life. He’s late 30s. Was a drifter pre-rock and was a drifter post-rock, until he found us. I think he’s found his place here… but once a drifter, I guess.
Kent (Mr Mayhem) studied biology. In fact, I don’t think he ever stopped studying because he’s never mentioned a job. Early 30s... very odd. I’m trying to work out if that’s lone-survivor-baggage odd... or he’s just always been odd. But he seems harmless enough, just in his own head. He’s found an obsession with the hydro set-up. He’s creating a plan to transition as much as we can outside by next spring. He thinks of everything – how much we grow of everything, what thrives under what circumstances, what gets the most bang for our hydroponic real estate buck, what diversity we can gain through the knowledge as well as what sort of herbs we can grow for medicinal purposes for the time ahead when our medicines run out, or become ineffective. I’m not exaggerating to say it is his life. His entire purpose is around those plants. We only really see him around meal times and, even then, it feels like he’d rather be with his plants.
*
I headed down to Jonesy’s garag
e after breakfast and the war room meeting – it seemed like the most interesting start point for my day. Jonesy showed off the plans he’d drawn up for the trebuchet. He doesn’t do things by half, Jonesy, and this thing looked epic – even on paper.
He and Jonah were going to start putting things into action, so I figured I may as well tag along and see if I could offer any help. Certainly not with the plans, but Phoenix might come in handy when acquiring materials.
I do visit the garage reasonably frequently. It’s usually just to chat to Jonesy or to see his latest creation at the front of shop – he likes to put his play things on show. It’s only when I stepped past all that today I got a real taste of the scale of his genius and creativity. He had Thunderbird 2 in the show-off position and he was telling us all about it, the problems and his solutions as we walked past. He reckoned he was going to have it up and running that day. Once we got back past the partition, the scale of everything hit Jonah and I.
The other four future Thunderbirds were lined up – all looking much shinier than when we’d pulled them from the ash grave. Alongside them, stood the early frameworks for Phoenix 2 and 3.
They were the focus of the room and they looked glorious… or menacing… or something. They were surrounded by a sea of workbenches, tools and spare parts. All in some sort of order that was beyond my understanding… but clearly in Jonesy’s.
“Welcome to the lab,” he said.
I’m sure Jonah and I must have looked like stunned mullets as we took it all in. And what I was thinking must have been expressed on my face because Jonesy looked at me and laughed!
Then he just started talking us through all of the areas of the shop and what they did. I didn’t hear a word of it, to be honest, all I could think of was how the hell did he get all that stuff? I mean, I’d helped him on a few runs and I know he visits exhumed car graves we’ve found when the ash had been moved. There’s no way I would’ve guessed all those little bits would’ve amounted to this.