Sure enough, in 2013, the FAO released a new report, stating: “With emissions estimated at 7.1 gigatonnes CO2-eq per annum, representing 14.5 percent of human-induced GHG emissions, the livestock sector plays an important role in climate change.”
* * *
So, 14.5 percent or 51 percent? I don’t think either number is accurate, but I find the higher end far more persuasive. And I’m not alone. A 2014 UN General Assembly report elevated the 51 percent assessment above the FAO’s estimate: “The precise figures remain debated, but there is no doubt in the scientific community that the impacts of livestock production are massive.” UNESCO, another UN agency, also published a report favoring the 51 percent estimate above that of the FAO. The UNESCO authors write that the Worldwatch calculation “represents an enormous shift in perspective, and further strengthens the evidence for the relationship between meat production and effects on climate change.”
I had a lengthy e-mail exchange with Jeff Anhang, inviting him to respond to the various critiques of his calculations. Finally, I asked what, in his opinion, we need to do to meet the goals of the Paris accord.
“It seems impossible to reverse climate change by capping fossil fuels,” he wrote. “That’s because the amount of renewable energy infrastructure needed to stop climate change has been estimated by the International Energy Agency to cost at least $53 trillion and take at least twenty years, by which time it’s projected to be too late to reverse climate change. In contrast, replacing animal products with alternatives offers a unique dual opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions quickly while freeing up land to enable more trees to capture excess atmospheric carbon in the near term. So replacing animal products with alternatives seems to be the only pragmatic way to reverse climate change before it is too late.”
Notes
I. UNBELIEVABLE
The oldest suicide note was written in ancient Egypt: Erman, Ancient Egyptians.
The first line reads: “Dialogue of a Man with His Soul.”
I am not the least afraid: Kearl, Endings, 49.
Armstrong would leave that boot on the moon: Bethge, “Urine Containers, ‘Space Boots’ and Artifacts Aren’t Just Junk.”
When Alex, the African grey parrot: Carey, “Parrot Who Had a Way with Words.”
The Roman Empire: Taagepera, “Size and Duration of Empires.”
They weren’t, themselves: Gannon, Operation Drumbeat.
The SS Robert E. Peary: American Merchant Marine at War, “Liberty Ship SS Robert E. Peary.”
Lingerie factories began making: Rosener, Women in Industry.
Retirees, women, and students: Ossian, Forgotten Generation, 73.
Celebrities encouraged the purchase: Fitch, “Julia Child.”
Top marginal tax rates: Roosevelt, “Executive Order 9250.”
Gasoline was severely regulated: Perrone and Handley, “Home Front Friday.”
U.S. government posters: Pursell, “When You Ride ALONE.”
Food was rationed: George C. Marshall Foundation, “National Nutrition Month.”
In the U.K., people were eating: Collingham, Taste of War.
This collective act of belt-tightening: British Nutrition Foundation, “How the War Changed Nutrition.”
“Their weapons are the panzer forces”: Walt Disney Productions, Food Will Win the War.
“Not all of us can have”: Roosevelt, “Fireside Chat 21.”
more than four trillion dollars: Daggett, Costs of Major U.S. Wars.
Imagine if the remaining 10.5 million Jews: Sifferlin, “Global Jewish Population.”
The chief threat to human life: Vidal, “Protect Nature.”
We know climate change: Milman, “Climate Change.”
or contributing to a polar vortex: Rice, “Yes, Chicago Will Be Colder Than Antarctica.”
And we find it hard: Rebuild by Design, “The Big U.”
Claudette Colvin: Rumble, “Claudette Colvin.”
Like the iconic photographs: Poirier, “One of History’s Most Romantic Photographs.”
photo of Rosa Parks: Rothman and Aneja, “Rosa Parks.”
And as she later acknowledged: Sullivan, “Bus Ride.”
As the marine biologist and filmmaker Randy Olson put it: Revkin, “Global Warming.”
“The climate crisis is also a crisis of culture”: Ghosh, The Great Derangement, 9.
“The Bund leader came up to me”: Lewin and Bartoszewski, Righteous Among Nations.
In a recent study, the UCLA psychologist Hal Hershfield: Hershfield, “Better Decisions.”
It has been widely demonstrated: Ibid.
Researchers have described a number of “sympathy biases”: Sudhir et al., “Sympathy Biases.”
Combining all these tactics: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, “Carefully Chosen Wording.”
They feel abstract, distant: Ballew et al., “Global Warming as a Voting Issue.”
As the journalist Oliver Burkeman put it: Burkeman, “Climate Change Deniers.”
So-called climate change deniers: Nuccitelli, “Climate Consensus”; NASA, “Scientific Consensus.”
“What is knowledge?”: Brody, “The Unicorn and ‘The Karski Report.’”
When explaining why he did what he did: Huicochea, “Man Lifts Car.”
Boyle, who was not a weight lifter: Wise, Extreme Fear, 25–27.
In Moscow in the early 2010s: “Russia’s Rich.”
In London, when a Piccadilly nightclub: Rennell, “Blitz 70 Years On.”
A study of Germany’s Bundesliga soccer league: Dohmen, “In Support of the Supporters?”
“To mobilize people”: Marshall, Don’t Even Think About It, 57.
In 2018, despite knowing more: “Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Rose.”
A little less than two centuries: Brandt, “Google Divulges Numbers.”
Researchers recently identified: Shah, “Addicted to Selfies.”
They named it “chronic selfitis”: Lee, “What Is ‘Selfitis’?”
Explaining the rise of MSNBC: Schwartz, “MSNBC’s Surging Ratings.”
A recent study published in Environmental Science and Technology: Babaee et al., “Electric Drive Vehicles.”
an average person’s vehicle emissions: Schiller, “Buying a Prius.”
Do the children getting vaccines: Leskin, “13 Tech Billionaires.”
Do the children dying: Kotecki, “Jeff Bezos.”
One after the other, individual bees: Kastberger et al., “Social Waves in Giant Honeybees.”
But it is the case that bee populations: Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation, “Bumblebee Conservation.”
From China to Australia to California: Wilder, “Bees for Hire”; Pensoft Publishers, “Bees, Fruits and Money.”
A photographer who documented this process said: Williams, “Shrinking Bee Populations.”
Ninety-six percent of American families: Harris Poll, “Carrying on Tradition.”
That is higher than the percentage: Delta Dental, 2014 Oral Health and Well-Being Survey, 8.
have read a book in the last year: Perrin, “Who Doesn’t Read Books in America?”
or have ever left the state: Nicholas, “Home State.”
If Americans had set a goal: University of Illinois Extension, “Turkey Facts.”
A recent study by the Stockholm School of Economics: Mellström and Johannesson, “Crowding Out in Blood Donation.”
But pilgrims who had participated: Khan et al., “Collective Participation.”
“Engaging in longer and more satisfying”: Muise et al., “Post Sex Affectionate Exchanges.”
After the grocery store Pay and Save: Moss, “Nudged to the Produce Aisle.”
In countries where citizens have to opt in: Davidai et al., “Default Options for Potential Organ Donors.”
playful stickers: Thaler and Sunstein, “Easy Does It.”
About 37 percent of registered voters: United States Electi
ons Project, “2014 November General Election Turnout Rates.”
In the 2016 presidential election: United States Elections Project, “2016 November General Election Turnout Rates.”
He never denied: Gallagher, FDR’s Splendid Deception.
In 1952, after successfully inoculating: Shampo and Kyle, “Jonas E. Salk.”
Salk began human testing: Salk Institute for Biological Studies, “About Jonas Salk.”
The Thanksgiving that we celebrate today: Lincoln, “Proclamation of Thanksgiving.”
Yet the smoking rate in America: Dennis, “Who Still Smokes in the United States.”
As early as 1949: Moore, “Nine of Ten Americans View Smoking as Harmful.”
than there are people in Canada: Worldometers, “Canada Population (Live),” 37.16 million; accessed February 18, 2019, http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/canada-population/.
Why would someone: Holford et al., “Tobacco Control.”
Despite the rising cost of cigarettes: Truth Initiative, “Why Are 72% of Smokers from Lower-Income Communities?”
“It was obviously a help in getting teenagers”: McKie, “A Jab for Elvis Helped Beat Polio.”
In a news release: Scheiber, “Google Workers”; Wakabayashi et al., “Google Walkout.”
“Tell your parents not to ruin”: Guggenheim, An Inconvenient Truth.
According to a 2017 analysis: Wynes and Nicholas, “Climate Mitigation Gap.”
“the most important contribution every individual”: Frischmann, “100 Solutions to Reverse Global Warming.”
All these emissions need to fall: Gates, “Climate Change.”
Even if we are miraculously able to achieve it: Raftery et al., “Less Than 2°C Warming by 2100 Unlikely.”
Sea levels will rise: Worland, “These Cities May Soon Be Uninhabitable.”
flooding coastlines: Schleussner et al., “Differential Climate Impacts.”
143 million people are projected to become climate migrants: Parker, “Climate Migrants.”
Armed conflict will increase: Burke et al., “Climate and Conflict.”
Greenland will tip into irreversible melt: Robinson et al., “Greenland Ice Sheet.”
Between 20 and 40 percent of the Amazon: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Global Warming of 1.5°C.
The European heat wave of 2003: Di Leberto, “Summer Heat Wave.”
Human mortality will dramatically: Mann and Kump, Dire Predictions, 50–162.
The number of people at risk of malaria: World Health Organization, “Climate Change and Human Health”; World Bank, Turn Down the Heat.
Four hundred million people: Wallace-Wells, Uninhabitable Earth, 12.
Warmer oceans will irreparably damage: Schleussner et al., “Differential Climate Impacts.”
Half of all animal species: Meixler, “Half of All Wildlife.”
A total of 60 percent of all plant species: World Wildlife Fund, “Wildlife in a Warming World.”
Wheat yields will be reduced by 12 percent: Zhao et al., “Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields.”
Global GDP per capita will drop: Wallace-Wells, Uninhabitable Earth, 12.
The few experts: Raftery et al., “Less Than 2°C Warming by 2100 Unlikely.”
The operation is happening now: Tillman, D-Day Encyclopedia.
sewing hundreds of dummies: Morton, “Object of Intrigue.”
Perhaps we could argue: Scranton, “Raising My Child.”
II. HOW TO PREVENT THE GREATEST DYING
The average global temperature: Jouzel et al., “Antarctic Climate Variability”; Prairie Climate Center, “Four Degrees of Separation”; NASA Earth Observatory, “Today’s Warming.”
Fifty million years ago: Eberle et al., “Seasonal Variability in Arctic Temperatures”; Scott and Lindsey, “What’s the Hottest Earth’s Ever Been?”; Jardine, “Patterns in Palaeontology.”
The most lethal mass extinction: Penn et al., “Temperature-Dependent Hypoxia”; New York University, “Siberian Volcanic Eruptions”; Zimmer, “Sudden Warming.”
Many scientists call the geological age: Welcome to the Anthropocene, www.anthropocene.info.
Taking into account natural mechanisms: Ritchie, “Exactly How Much Has the Earth Warmed?”; NASA Earth Observatory, “Is Current Warming Natural?”; Union of Concerned Scientists, “How Do We Know That Humans Are the Major Cause of Global Warming?”
Humans represent 0.01 percent: Carrington, “Humans Just 0.01% of All Life”; Bar-On et al., “Biomass Distribution on Earth.”
Globally, humans use 59 percent: Steinfeld et al., Livestock’s Long Shadow, xxi.
One-third of all the fresh water: Gerbens-Leenes et al., “Water Footprint of Poultry, Pork and Beef.”
while only about one-thirtieth: Hoekstra et al., “Water Footprint of Humanity.”
Seventy percent of the antibiotics: Ritchie, “How Do We Reduce Antibiotic Resistance from Livestock?”
There are approximately thirty: Compassion in World Farming, Strategic Plan 2013–2017; Fishcount, “Farmed Fish.”
Before the Industrial Revolution: Zijdeman and Ribeira da Silva, “Life Expectancy at Birth.”
It took two hundred thousand years: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, “World Population Prospects.”
Every day, 360,000 people: Lamble, “How Many People Can the Earth Sustain?”
In 1820, 72 percent: American Farm Bureau Federation, “Fast Facts About Agriculture; “Farm Population Lowest Since 1850’s”; United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Employment Projections Program.”
Like the video game console: Brookhaven National Laboratory, “The First Video Game?”
Between 1950 and 1970: Ganzel, “Shrinking Farm Numbers”; United States Bureau of the Census, “Census of Agriculture, 1969 Volume II.”
During that time, the size of the average chicken: Zuidhof et al., “Commercial Broilers.”
In 1966, distorting contact lenses: Wise and Hall, Distorting contact lenses for animals, U.S. Patent 3,418,978.
The lenses were considered too burdensome: “Super-Sizing the Chicken.”
In 2018, more than 99 percent: Sentience Institute, “US Factory Farming Estimates.”
The current level of meat and dairy consumption: Steinfeld et al., Livestock’s Long Shadow; Durisin and Singh, “Americans’ Meat Consumption.”
Humans eat sixty-five billion: Gorman, “Age of the Chicken.”
On average, Americans consume: Pasiakos et al., “Animal, Dairy, and Plant Protein Intake.”
People who eat diets high in animal protein: Levine et al., “Low Protein Intake.”
Smokers are three times as likely: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Tobacco-Related Mortality.”
In America, one out of every five meals: Mooallem, “Last Supper.”
We are currently in the Quaternary glaciation: National Centers for Environmental Information, “Glacial-Interglacial Cycles.”
According to models of cyclical climate change: Joint Study for the Atmosphere and the Ocean, “PDO Index”; Physikalisch-Meteorologische Observatorium Davos / World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), “Solar Constant”; National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, “Cold and Warm Episodes by Season.”
Nine of the ten warmest years: National Centers for Environmental Information, “Global Climate Report.”
During the Great Dying: Solly, “The ‘Great Dying.’”
Humans are now adding greenhouse gases: Wallace-Wells, “Uninhabitable Earth.”
Life on Earth depends: Ma, “Greenhouse Gases.”
CO2 accounts for 82 percent: United States Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks.
For the eight hundred thousand years before the Industrial Revolution: United States Environmental Protection Agency, “Climate Change Indicators.”
Since the Industrial Revolution: American Chemical Society, “Greenhouse Gas C
hanges.”
Animal agriculture is responsible: Steinfeld et al., Livestock’s Long Shadow.
One of the most powerful feedback loops: National Snow and Ice Data Center, “All About Sea Ice: Albedo.”
The former United Nations climate chief: Harvey, “Dangerous Climate Change.”
Methane has 34 times: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2013, chap. 8, 711–14, table 8.7.
Because they are primarily created: Clark, “Greenhouse Gases.”
This is similar to the earth’s photosynthetic capacity: Strain, “Planet’s Vegetation.”
about one-quarter of anthropogenic emissions: Climate and Land Use Alliance, “The Earth’s Climate.”
The more forests we destroy: Erb et al., “Global Vegetation Biomass.”
Allowing tropical land currently used for livestock to revert to forest: Goodland and Anhang, “‘Livestock and Climate Change’: Critical Comments and Responses,” 13.
Trees are 50 percent carbon: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “Deforestation Causes Global Warming.”
Forests contain more carbon: Climate and Land Use Alliance, “The Earth’s Climate.”
The cutting and burning of forests: “Deforestation and Its Extreme Effect on Global Warming.”
“By most accounts”: Ibid.
About 80 percent of deforestation: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “Deforestation Causes Global Warming.”
Every year, wildfires in California: United States Department of the Interior, “2018 California Wildfires.”
We Are the Weather Page 17