In 1964 we figured the Soviets had 6000 foot CEP, and predicted that by 1975 they’d have 600 feet. By 1975 I’d given up my clearances, and I don’t know what they achieved. It doesn’t take clearances to see what must be happening to the error budget.
Item: weather satellites; winds over target are predictable, so you can correct for them. Item: lots of polar-orbiting satellites; by studying them, you can map gravitational anomalies. Item: observation satellites; location errors just aren’t significant any more. Item: the Soviets have been buying gyros, precision lathes, etc, as well as computers. They already had the mathematicians.
They’re not ten feet tall, but if by 1984 they don’t have several warheads per bird, each with 600 foot CEP, they’re pygmies.
Now what can we do about it?
One: it does no good to put MX in Minuteman silos. Well, it does a little good: MX is a better bird. The problem is, you decrease stability, by deploying a force that both makes them nervous and which they can knock out. It can’t be our best bet.
Two: in the 60’s we studied lots and lots of mobile basing schemes: road mobile, rail mobile, off-road mobile, canal and barge mobile, ship mobile, etc. We even looked at artificial ponds, and things that crawled around on the bottom of Lake Michigan. There were a lot of people in favor of mobile systems—then. Now, though, there are satellites, and you know, it’s just damned hard to hide something seventy feet long and weighing 190,000 pounds. (Actually, by the time you add the launcher, it’s more like 200 feet and 500,000 pounds.)
Make it smaller, then. A small mobile missile. Unfortunately, we don’t have one, and it will take both time and money to develop.
Worse, you can’t harden a mobile system very much. Even a “small” ICBM rocket is a pretty big object. Twenty PSI would probably be more than we could achieve. The kill radius of a 50 megaton weapon against a 20 PSI target is very large: area bombardment becomes attractive. You’ve invited the enemy to use hand grenades while you barricade yourself in a room with your family. Not too bright.
Waterborne is not Triad independent, and doesn’t have the warfighting capability we’d like. The scheme for basing MX on five-man subs in shallow water will lose its support when the full realization of synthetic aperture radar sinks in. Putting them on merchant ships, or surface ships of any kind, doesn’t help much, either. And nearly every mobile basing scheme puts nukes out where they have to be protected from terrorists and saboteurs including well-meaning US citizens aroused in protest (and you just know there’ll be plenty of them).
Air-mobile and air-launched were long-term favorites, and I was much for them in the 60’s. The Pentagon’s most recent analysis says we just can’t afford them; it would cost in the order of $150 billion, possibly more.
The “race-track” or “shell game” has been rejected on political and economic grounds. There’s also the security problem. Synthetic aperture radars have seen old watercourses under the Sahara beneath many feet of sand; they can look through a lot of stuff we thought was opaque. There’s also the KGB: want to bet our lives they can’t find out which bunker has the bird?
In fact, every alternative you’ve ever heard of, and a few you haven’t, were analyzed in great detail back in 1964. I know, because I was editor of the final report. I even invented one scheme myself, Citadel, which would put some birds as well as a national command post under a granite mountain. The problem with that one is that the birds will survive, but if they attack the doors, how does it get out after the attack?
Every one of these schemes has holes in it. Every one of them.
However, though there isn’t any absolute safe basing system, you can make the other guy complicate his war plan. The simpler the war plan, the more likely the war; thus you don’t lightly give up any leg of the Triad, especially not now when we’re just seeing new vulnerabilities in the wet leg.
First try the obvious: harden your birds. In 1964 we called it “Superhard,” 5000 PSI basing. Now 5000 PSI isn’t easy to come by. There are severe engineering problems, and it isn’t cheap. Worse, “Superhard” didn’t buy all that much: at 500 foot CEP’s a megaton has a 95% chance of killing “superhard” targets. (A megaton weapon makes a crater 250 feet deep and over a thousand feet in diameter even in hard rock.) Thus putting MX in 5000 PSI silos separated by miles didn’t seem worth the cost.
Suppose, though, there were a way to foul up the other guy’s attack?
The “Dense Pack” scheme came after my time. It makes a lot of sense. We used to worry about “fratricide” among our MIRV’s, meaning that one goes off and kills a bunch of its brothers before they can get to their targets—after all, a re-entering warhead in flight is a lot softer than a missile in a silo, and thus will be killed at much greater distances.
If fratricide is a problem for us, it’ll be a problem for them. If it’s a problem for them, why not increase that problem by spacing the MX emplacements just far enough apart that a hit on one—or halfway between two of them—destroys only one (or none) of our missiles?
There’s no magic in this, but it does complicate hell out of the enemy’s war plan. He not only has to coordinate strikes against air bases, submarines, and missiles (including good old Minuteman); but his attack on the MX Peacekeeper base has to be timed exactly, down to fractions of a millisecond, or else he has to attack our Peacekeeper force one missile at a time.
Any artilleryman knows the problems involved in getting off a precise TOT (all the shells go off over the target at once) for a single battery. Imagine trying it at intercontinental distances. True, the time of detonation can be coordinated. We know how to build clocks a lot more accurate than the ones needed here. (I’m not so sure that given the exact time sequence, there aren’t enough timing uncertainties in the chemical explosive parts of a nuclear weapon to cause some concern, but we can ignore that one.)
The real problem comes with having a hundred or more birds arrive in position all at the same instant. ICBM’s travel thousands of feet per second, and we’re talking about CEP’s in the hundreds of feet. Since they all have to detonate at once, it doesn’t take much error in the launch time to put a lot of them miles away from their targets when it’s time to explode.
If he chooses some other means to defeat dense pack— earth penetrators, for example—he has to build and develop the missiles, which will take a while, and he probably has to test them, and we’ll get some inkling of the tests. There are other clever ways to attack dense pack; but every one of them is complex enough to be a planner’s nightmare.
Meanwhile, what have we lost? If the enemy’s accuracy is nowhere near as good as we thought, and the fratricide argument turns out to be fallacious, then we’ll lose more missiles than we would if we spaced them out. On the other hand, because of his inaccuracy and our superhardening, we’ll have well over half those accurate 10-warhead Peacekeepers left after his best attack.
If we decide on active defenses—General Graham’s Project High Frontier, as an example—it’s a lot easier to defend the corridors to one patch of ground than a lot of installations.
The plain fact is that dispersal is usually a good idea, but it isn’t always; sometimes you’re better off hardening hell out of your fortress and concentrating inside it. (I’m aware of the Maginot Line mentality; I’m also aware of just how valuable, in a different era, fortresses and magazines were.) Just about every honest analyst who takes the trouble to work through the numbers comes away muttering “That’s a goofy sounding scheme, but damned if it doesn’t look like it might work…”
Then there’s another possibility: put MX in the old Minuteman silos, but defend them. This is what’s recommended by Lt. General Daniel O. Graham’s PROJECT HIGH FRONTIER.
Details of High Frontier are available from Project High Frontier, 1010 Vermont Ave. NW #1000, Washington DC 20005, as well as in the Tor Book by General Graham.
Graham rejects the idea of trying to match the Soviets in tanks, guns, ships, men, planes, and missiles.
Instead, he says, let’s take a strategic sidestep into space. Use the space environment and our lead in high technology to construct missile defenses. They won’t be perfect, but they won’t need to be: the enemy can’t know how good our defenses are. Thus he can’t be sure of the outcome of his strike.
The Soviet war plan gets complicated as hell.
A lot of highly competent people are convinced Graham’s plan is best. It has been examined by an engineering team headed by Harry Goldie, Vice President of Engineering for The Boeing Company, as well as a number of highly regarded physicists and space scientists. Predictably, Graham’s enemies try to ridicule the concept; one, Professor Tsipis of MIT, says that Graham doesn’t understand the laws of physics. Tsipis, who is part of the MIT Arms Control Project, says that almost everyone who argues in favor of arming the US doesn’t understand the laws of physics.
Unfortunately, the laws of physics not only permit, but practically demand, that space will be an important theatre of war. The US already depends on space for command, control, communications, and intelligence— the famous “C-3 I” factors. Like it or not, war in space has already begun; the only real question is whether or not we will prepare for the decisive battles there.
We live in perilous times. Certainly we would prefer to reduce military expenditures. It’s always more pleasant to consume than to save, and it always hurts when you can’t even save what you don’t consume, but have to “waste” it on something non-productive like defense.
Fortunately, investment in space resources is not inflationary; we can prove that it has always been the best investment the government has ever made. Whether space research pays for itself fifteen times over, as space enthusiasts say, or only twice over, as its critics say, nearly everyone is agreed that it does pay for itself— which is more than you can say for most other parts of the budget.
If we fail to provide for the common defense, it does no good to promote the general welfare.
The strategic problem is damned severe. Defense is costly, and you can’t be sure of what you get for all that money. The only certainty is that you can’t remove the uncertainties. Whatever we do will have flaws; but anyone honestly looking at the problem will conclude we have to do something, and it’s getting damned late.
The stream of technology moves on; we can move with it, or try to swim against it. The one thing we can’t do is stand still.
I can’t say Dense Pack is the best thing to do. I don’t even believe it is; I prefer General Graham’s “bold stroke” approach. However, I can appreciate the risks involved, and that the President might not want to take them.
Of the “conventional” things we could do, Dense Pack makes the most sense, and is most compatible with a shift to strategic defense. We have to go to defense someday. Nothing else leads to a strategy of “Assured Survival” rather than MAD.
I believe our best course is to build MX and fund Graham’s High Frontier defense system. By the time we have MX in production we’ll know whether we need Dense Pack (with all its high expenses; 5000 PSI silos are not cheap), or can rely on space defenses. Meanwhile we’ve bought our children some reasonable insurance.
We’d better do something. The hour is late, and the clouds are gathering.
Books by Jerry Pournelle
FICTION SERIES
CODOMINIUM UNIVERSE
CoDominion
A Spaceship for the King (1973) also appeared as King David's Spaceship (1981)
Falkenberg's Legion
1 Falkenberg's Legion (1990)
2 Prince of Mercenaries (1989)
3 Go Tell the Spartans (1991) with S. M. Stirling
4 Prince of Sparta (1993) with S. M. Stirling
His Truth Goes Marching On (1975)
West of Honor (1976)
Silent Leges (1977)
The Mercenary (1977)
Future History (1980)
Falkenberg's Legions (1990)
The Prince (2002) with S. M. Stirling
Laurie Jo Hansen
1 High Justice (1977) [C]
2 Exiles to Glory (1978)
Moties
1 The Mote in God's Eye (1974) with Larry Niven
2 The Gripping Hand (1993) with Larry Niven also appeared as The Moat Around Murcheson's Eye (1993)
Reflex (1982) with Larry Niven
War World
1 The Burning Eye (1988) [A]
2 Death's Head Rebellion (1990) [A]
3 Sauron Dominion (1991) [A]
4 Invasion (1994)
5 Codominium: Revolt on War World (1992)
7 Blood Vengeance (1994) with Susan Shwartz and Judith Tarr and Harry Turtledove and S. M. Stirling
Prolog (The Burning Eye) (1988)
HEOROT
1 The Legacy of Heorot (1987) with Larry Niven and Steven Barnes
2 Beowulf's Children (1995) with Larry Niven and Steven Barnes also appeared as The Dragons of Heorot (1995)
INFERNO
1 Inferno (1976) with Larry Niven
2 Escape from Hell (2009) with Larry Niven
JANISSARIES
1 Janissaries (1979)
2 Janissaries: Clan and Crown (1982) with Roland J. Green
3 Janissaries III: Storms of Victory (1987)
JUPITER
1 Higher Education (1996) with Charles Sheffield
5 Starswarm (1998)
MAGIC GOES AWAY
Golden Road
1 The Burning City (2000) with Larry Niven
2 Burning Tower (2005) with Larry Niven
PLANET OF THE APES
Escape from the Planet of the Apes (1974)
TALES OF KNOWN SPACE
Man-Kzin Wars
2 Man-Kzin Wars II (1989) [A] with Larry Niven and Dean Ing and S. M. Stirling
5 Man-Kzin Wars V (1992) [A] with Larry Niven and S. M. Stirling and Thomas T. Thomas
The Children's Hour (1991) with S. M. Stirling
In the Hall of the Mountain King (1992) with S. M. Stirling
The Houses of the Kzinti (2002) with S. M. Stirling and Dean Ing
NOVELS
Birth of Fire (1976)
Lucifer's Hammer (1977) with Larry Niven
Oath of Fealty (1981) with Larry Niven
Footfall (1985) with Larry Niven
Fallen Angels (1991) with Michael F. Flynn and Larry Niven
OMNIBUS
Fires of Freedom (2009)
ANTHOLOGY SERIES
Far Frontiers
1 Far Frontiers (1985) with Jim Baen
2 Far Frontiers, Volume II/Summer 1985 (1985) with Jim Baen
3 Far Frontiers, Volume III/Fall 1985 (1985) with Jim Baen
4 Far Frontiers, Volume IV/Winter 1985 (1986) with Jim Baen
5 Far Frontiers, Volume V/Spring 1986 (1986) with Jim Baen
6 Far Frontiers, Volume VI/Fall 1986 (1986) with Jim Baen
7 Far Frontiers, Volume VII/Winter 1986 (1986) with Jim Baen
Imperial Stars
1 The Stars At War (1986) with John F. Carr
2 Republic and Empire (1987) with John F. Carr
3 The Crash of Empire (1989) with John F. Carr
Nebula Awards
16 Nebula Award Stories Sixteen (1982) with John F. Carr
The Endless Frontier
1 The Endless Frontier (1979)
2 The Endless Frontier, Vol. II (1982) with John F. Carr
3 Cities in Space (1991) with John F. Carr
4 Life Among the Asteroids (1992) with John F. Carr
There Will Be War
1 There Will Be War (1983) with John F. Carr
2 Men of War (1984)
3 Blood and Iron (1984) with John F. Carr
4 Day of the Tyrant (1985) with John F. Carr
5 Warrior (1986) with John F. Carr
6 Guns of Darkness (1987) with John F. Carr
7 Call to Battle (1988) with John F. Carr
8 Armageddon! (1989) with John F. Carr
9 After Armageddon (1990)
ANTHOLOGIES
2020 Vision (1974)
Black Holes (1978)
The Survival of Freedom (1981) with John F. Carr
The Science Fiction Yearbook (1985) with John F. Carr and Jim Baen
Future Quartet: Earth in the Year 2042: A Four-Part Invention (1994) with Ben Bova and Frederik Pohl and Charles Sheffield
NONFICTION
That Buck Rogers Stuff (1977)
A Step Farther Out (1979)
Mutual Assured Survival (1984) with Dean Ing
The User's Guide to Small Computers (1984)
Adventures in Microland (1985)
NON-FICTION
Astronomy and Astrophysics by Dr. Sarah Salviander
A History of Strategy: From Sun Tzu to William S. Lind by Martin van Creveld
Equality: The Impossible Quest by Martin van Creveld
On War: The Collected Columns of William S. Lind 2003-2009 by William S. Lind
Four Generations of Modern War by William S. Lind
Transhuman and Subhuman: Essays on Science Fiction and Awful Truth by John C. Wright
MILITARY SCIENCE FICTION
Riding the Red Horse Vol. 1 ed. Tom Kratman and Vox Day
There Will Be War Vol. I ed. Jerry Pournelle
There Will Be War Vol. II ed. Jerry Pournelle
SCIENCE FICTION
Awake in the Night by John C. Wright
Awake in the Night Land by John C. Wright
City Beyond Time: Tales of the Fall of Metachronopolis by John C. Wright
Somewhither by John C. Wright
Big Boys Don't Cry by Tom Kratman
The Stars Came Back by Rolf Nelson
Hyperspace Demons by Jonathan Moeller
On a Starry Night by Tedd Roberts
Do Buddhas Dream of Enlightened Sheep by Josh M. Young
QUANTUM MORTIS A Man Disrupted by Steve Rzasa and Vox Day
QUANTUM MORTIS Gravity Kills by Steve Rzasa and Vox Day
There Will Be War Volume II Page 38