by Bell, D. R.
“Over the past three years, we have built a number of oil and gas exploration platforms in the first and second island chains. The Japanese refuse to hand over to us the Diaoyu Islands, or the Senkaku Islands as they call them, but they gladly let us have oil exploration leases there. Six platforms were built in that area. The second chain – the Caroline Islands, the Gilbert Islands, the Itbayat Island bordering the Luzon Strait – all have oil and gas platforms there now. And they are actively drilling. But they also secretly house hundreds of missiles and drones that can be launched against the 7th Fleet. Once launched, they will be controlled by mainland operators using the Qu Dian C4ISR network and guided via our Beidou GPS system. Combined, the network of these platforms ensures that the 7th Fleet will not be able to approach Taiwan without suffering a major, hopefully crippling attack, especially if used in combination with the DF-26D ballistic missiles that will occupy the Americans’ attention.”
“But once these weapons are launched, the U.S. will know what to expect. They will destroy all the platforms in the network!” said Kai Liu.
“True,” agreed Wu Cao. “They are designed for one time use: to damage the 7th Fleet and prevent it from reaching Taiwan, or at least slow down its progress.”
“How much did you spend on this one-time use system?” asked Sun Yang.
“I don’t have an exact number, but about 300 billion renminbi.”
“So with people rioting in the streets, the Navy has spent 300 billion renminbi on a secret program that may or may not work? And how many people will die in the American retaliation on these platforms?” Sun Yang was practically spitting saliva.
“Yes, there are sacrifices to be made!” angrily retorted Wu Cao. “Remember, our objective is to slow down a superior enemy, buy time. Given a couple of weeks without the U.S. opposition, our forces will take Taiwan and the Second Artillery Corps will install batteries of high-precision maneuverable theater-range ballistic missiles that will forever prevent the 7th Fleet from coming close to Taiwan. And then we’ll take the Diaoyu Islands from Japan and continue expanding the range of our missiles, pushing the U.S. out of “our seas” while we are building our own ‘blue water’ capabilities!” Cao pounded the table. “This is just the beginning. China’s fate lies with the sea. Once we establish our hegemony over the adjacent seas, we will start replacing the U.S. as a dominant naval power by setting up our bases around the world.”
“Comrade Cao,” Kai Liu raised his palm. “You are asking us to take a major gamble with this untested network of platform-based missiles and drones. It’s not the kind of chance I like taking. The range of our high-precision missiles continues to expand, why not wait until we can reliably stop the 7th Fleet from approaching Taiwan? Is there anything else in your plan?”
“Comrade General Secretary,” demurred Cao. “It will take at least another ten years before our high-precision missiles have the range necessary to prevent the Americans from coming to Taiwan’s help. At least. Unfortunately, we can’t afford to wait this long. Not only does our economic situation dictate a quicker action, but the changing political climate in America as well. Since the 2019 crisis, the American mood has turned very anti-Chinese. The leader of the new Spirit of ‘76 party is planning to deploy American troops and missiles on Taiwan, and he is ahead in the polls now. If this is allowed to happen, not only Taiwan will be lost, but we’ll also be dealing with an even angrier domestic populace. And, of course, you are right – it would be imprudent for us to not have other surprises. As you know, we’ve been preparing for the next war to be the ‘information technology’ war. We have developed sophisticated capabilities for jamming American communication and information systems, including their GPS network. We know that this can only work temporarily but again, we are looking for a short-term advantage.”
“And you think the Americans have not developed counter-jamming capabilities? What if your electronic attack won’t buy us any time? You are still asking us to gamble with unproven weapons!” Kai Liu was shaking his head to deny Cao’s plan.
“Comrade Liu, there is no doubt that the Americans will try to disable our space-based communication and guidance capabilities, just like we’ll try to disable theirs. This is actually one area where we have an advantage. In the near seas, we can rely on land-based communication and radar systems. In addition, our drone systems include not only attack but also communication platforms. We will launch a drone-based relay network that will cover the territory to the second island chain. It will enable us to maintain guidance and communication even if our space-based resources become unavailable.”
“I am glad you thought of this, General Cao,” spoke Guo Zheng, Vice-Chairman of the Commission for Politics and Law, who’d been silent until then. “But war is unpredictable. What are the chances of the American 7th Fleet breaking through your defenses and approaching Taiwan?”
Wu Cao nodded, “We ran hundreds of simulations with different scenarios and variables. If we can hold off the Americans for two weeks, we are 99% confident that we’ll capture Taiwan and place ourselves in a position where we can’t be dislodged. In two out of every three simulations, we’ve been able to prevent the Americans from approaching Taiwan for at least two weeks.”
“Two out of three is simply not good enough!” Kai Liu looked at Wu Cao with a Why did you even bother? expression.
“I understand, Comrade General Secretary. We ran simulations of the scenarios where the 7th Fleet gets to Taiwan before we had a chance to secure it. In at least half of the simulations, our missiles and land-based aircraft forces have been able to prevent them from effectively interfering.”
“General Cao, I don’t want to get caught up in numbers but it sounds like we are still looking at almost twenty percent probability of failure. I will not take this chance,” Kai Liu shook his head.
“I understand and agree, Comrade General Secretary,” said Wu Cao. “We should not take this chance. But our risks can be significantly reduced with a strong ally. The Russian Pacific Fleet is in the area. In the past ten years they have re-built their capabilities and now have seventeen surface ships including two aircraft carriers and twenty-three submarines. While no match for the U.S. 7th Fleet, the Pacific Fleet presents a formidable force that can protect our northern flank. When it is added into the equation, our chances of success rise to over 95%.”
“I believe that the Russian participation is crucial,” agreed Sun Yang. “Winning the battle for Taiwan is not the same as winning the war. Even if we capture Taiwan, we are in danger of being blockaded by the Americans. While we have built up significant strategic reserves of oil and other materials, on our own we will not be able to withstand a naval blockade for more than six months. But with Russia, we control much of Eurasia and have the resources, military and economic capabilities to prevail.”
“But what makes you think that the Russians will do this?” asked Kai Liu. “The Russian President Mosin is careful. He allied with us in a financial attack against the U.S., but a military action is a different matter.”
“Well, they are a junior partner in our alliance. They depend on us for the bulk of their energy sales,” pointed out Cao.
“Yes, and we depend on them. They might be a junior partner but I’ve seen nothing in Mosin’s behavior to convince me that he will go along with this plan,” Kai Liu shook his head.
“If I may, Comrade General Secretary,” Guo Zheng interjected calmly. “Your doubts about Mosin are well grounded. But we have been working on them and have reasons to believe that a more China-friendly attitude will emerge in a not-too-distant future.”
“And what reasons these might be?” Kai Liu leaned forward, his eyes focused on Guo Zheng.
“At this moment, the reasons are not sufficiently specific. I think we’ll just need a bit more time to properly quantify them,” came back a careful response.
“Fine,” Kai Liu sat straight and drummed his fingers on the table. “There is no question that we have to take action, and soon. The
Taiwan option could solve some of the economic issues while rekindling the nationalistic spirit. Our beating heart is nationalistic and capturing Taiwan will raise the country’s spirit and reinforce the Party’s greatness. But we can’t risk defeat and without Russian military and economic alliance the risks are not acceptable. Get me their agreement and I’ll authorize moving forward.”
Los Angeles, USA
“Will she or won’t she?”
“Who? What?” David looked at Oleg.
“Jennifer Kron, who else? Will she meet with us?”
“Oh.” David went back to his computer screen.
Oleg shook his head, turned to Alejandro, “Come on, let’s go somewhere! We’ve been here for over a month and spent pretty much all of our time here, in this house, in this room.”
“Oleg, Alejandro is worried about our safety,” said Maggie.
“Yeah, I know but it’s already dark outside. I’ll even wear a mask if needed.”
Alejandro laughed, “You, my friend, are having a cabin fever. And it’s not true that I kept you here locked up. We’ve gone places a few times. Just have to be careful. You, my friends, are fugitives.”
“You promised to show us your warehouse,” said Oleg.
Alejandro shook his head, “You are restless. OK, fine, let’s go. Remember the precautions to take.”
He laughed again as Maggie and Oleg jumped up. David, on the other hand, did not move.
“David, are you coming?” asked Maggie.
“No. Still working on some of the stuff that Brobak sent. Have to have it ready for the meeting with Jennifer.”
“Haven’t even met her and already on the first name basis? But I’m glad you think she’ll come.”
He just looked back at Maggie and she nodded. Yes, have to believe in something.
There was a new car in the garage. Alejandro proudly patted it:
“Lexus 570A. ‘A’ stands for autonomous. This baby drives itself everywhere, not just on freeways.”
Oleg hemmed. He did not like self-driving cars.
“Come on, Oleg, get into the driver’s seat.”
But Oleg demonstratively went into the back seat.
Alejandro opened the garage door, carefully pronounced the address, and the car gently eased into the street. It was starting to rain outside, a rarity for LA.
The car took them north through stop-and-go traffic, under the Santa Monica Freeway. Signs and billboards switched from English to Spanish and Korean. Streets were full of people, dark-skinned Mexicans, mini-skirted Korean girls, gawking Anglos. Umbrellas came out in the falling rain. Beggars of various nationalities occupied street corners. Neon lights gave the place a “Blade Runner”-ish feel.
“Koreatown is doing well,” explained Alejandro. “They should probably rename it into Mexican-Korean-town.”
“Why is that?” asked Oleg from the back seat.
“Why is what? It doing well or it should be renamed?”
“Both.”
“Despite the name, there are more Mexicans than Koreans living here now. Many urban areas, especially ethnic ones, made it through the crisis OK. People here live closely together, they could fall on family and neighborhood support when needed. And there is a subway station is nearby, so transportation is relatively cheap. Suburbs have been faring much worse. Well, here we are.”
The car parallel-parked itself next to a non-descript one-story building on the edge of downtown. “New American Apparel Warehouse” read the sign.
“Are you in the apparel business too?” asked Maggie.
“Sort of.”
Security guard let them inside and turned on the lights. They walked by rows of pants, shirts and dresses when Alejandro parted two racks of suits and stopped in front of a collection of jeans. He picked a pair, rubbed the material between his thumb and index fingers.
“Try it. Does it feel different?”
“Feels a bit sandy?” offered Maggie.
“Hmm... sandy... interesting. The material has a thin film of graphene inside.”
“Gra-what?” asked Oleg.
“Graphene. It shields people from terahertz imaging. You know, the machines they have in the airports that look through your clothing? Now police have cameras with terahertz imaging. Some folks don’t like that. That’s our clothing market.”
“So you help people to hide guns from the police?”
“I’d like to think we are defending their right to privacy. Sometimes they have something to hide, but in most cases they just don’t want cops seeing through their clothing. Technology empowers the government. We bring in technology that empowers the people.”
“Is it expensive?”
“It’s not cheap. It’s not illegal to wear, but it’s illegal to make, which keeps prices high. Good markup for us.” Alejandro smiled, “I am a private person. Most of my wardrobe has graphene in it.”
He came to what looked like a corrugated metal wall, touched his palm against it and the wall opened. There was another, smaller warehouse inside, with rows of shelves.
Alejandro walked amongst them, commenting in each section:
“Spectrum analyzers – sweep and monitor transmissions in your home, raise the alarm for anything suspicious. Image distortion devices – they detect the presence of cameras and send a pulse of light back at them. Robots, modified to not send out any private information. Jailbroken watches and phones that can be turned off completely and not disclose your location. TVs and computers configured for privacy. Microwave ovens. Printers…”
“Microwave ovens?” interrupted Oleg.
Alejandro laughed, “They shield your home from cameras, make it invisible. Just kidding! Not everything here is privacy or security oriented. Some of our customers don’t want to use credit cards or order things online where their transactions are traced. They don’t have to. They place orders through us using D-coin wallets on their phones or computers. Many large retailers under government’s pressure don’t accept D-coin, so we convert cryptocurrency into dollars, get their stuff, our gardener crews deliver. We buy things in bulk so we make a bit of margin but not much. Mostly, it’s a part of the package, we want to be a one-stop ‘drop out’ shop where our customers get most of the convenience of a regular commerce but in privacy.”
He stopped, “Look, I don’t know about you, but I’m starving.”
Alejandro took them to Guelaguetza, an orange-painted Mexican restaurant in the middle of Koreatown.
“After two years in Mexico, you’ll appreciate this. The best Oaxacan restaurant in LA. Probably in the country!” promised Alejandro. “You must try their enmoladas and chilaquiles. And let’s get some grilled cactus and sautéed grasshoppers.”
A jazz band was going full throttle on a small stage. Alejandro ordered four different versions of mescal, Oaxaca’s agave liquor, for them to try. His hand was firmly planted on Maggie’s jean-covered leg, working its way to her inner thigh.
Alejandro stood up and unsteadily started making his way to the restroom.
“It’s a good thing his is a self-driving car,” said Maggie.
“Ugh.”
Maggie looked at Oleg. He was studying the ground under the table.
“Oleg, what’s the matter?”
“What’s the matter?” he slowly repeated. “David is what’s the matter! He might be blind because he’s got his nose in the numbers, but I am not!”
Oleg looked at her, breathing heavily, nose crinkled, lips pressed together with corners facing down.
Maggie leaned back in her chair, looking at the hands in her lap, not saying anything. Then she looked up, enunciated carefully:
“You must understand, I will do anything to protect David. Anything.”
Oleg sat there staring at her, his mouth relaxed, eyes sad.
“Hey, what’s the matter, why so serious?” Alejandro stumbled back to the table.
“Nothing,” Oleg avoided Alejandro’s eyes.
Waiter brought in an electro
nic payment tablet. Without checking, Alejandro waved his phone over it. The tablet beeped twice.
“I am sorry, Sir, we don’t accept D-coin,” apologized the waiter.
“Agrrh,” Alejandro angrily punched index finger against the phone, waved the device again. This time the tablet played a short happy tune. “It’s about time your restaurant got on with the program and saved me half a percent in conversion fee.”
New York, USA
“I don’t have to tell you how unpredictable and dangerous the situation has become,” said a man standing by the window. He looked like a nicely aged movie star: silvery, carefully brushed hair, well-toned figure sheathed in a casually expensive suit, open collar blue shirt, polished fingernails. He would have looked early 50s but the stretched skin of his face, evident of plastic surgery, gave away that he was likely quite a bit older. “With all the money we poured into him, Tice is now a distant third.”
“Yeah, well, weren’t you, Jim, the one telling us eight months ago that if we increase our contributions, Tice was a shoo-in?” retorted a tall elderly man in jeans and cowboy boots. “In the last budget we got Congress to agree to increase the individual contribution limit to two million. There are six of us in this room and, I reckon, between direct and indirect contributions we must have poured close to fifty million into your guy. Or should I say ‘your loser’?”
“Be careful how you talk to me, Bryce, you’re not in Texas anymore.” Jim the ‘movie star’ bared his teeth.
“Calm down, you two!” a red-faced heavy-breathing man with two chins slapped his hand against the table. “The six of us have a net worth of over two hundred billion; let’s not squabble over a few pennies. The question is, what are we going to do now?”
“Yes, this is the question.” A slightly static-y voice came from a holographic 3-D image of a younger man in the corner. “Sorry I couldn’t be there with you in person, but my hedge fund activities required my physical presence in London.”