When China Rules the World

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When China Rules the World Page 64

by Martin Jacques


  [434] Angus Maddison, Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, Second Edition, Revised and Updated: 960-2030 AD (Paris: OECD, 2007), pp. 64, 89.

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  [435] Wang Gungwu, ‘Rationalizing China’s Place in Asia, 1800–2005: Beyond the Literati Consensus’, in Reid and Zheng, Negotiating Asymmetry, p. 5.

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  [436] Gittings, The Changing Face of China , p. 186.

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  [437] Zheng Yongnian, Will China Become Democratic? p. 33.

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  [438] Ibid., pp. 238-9.

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  [439] Yu Yongding, ‘Opinions on Structure Reform and Exchange Rate Regimes Against the Backdrop of the Asian Financial Crisis’, unpublished paper, Japanese Ministry of Finance, 2000, pp. 1-11; Wang Yizhou, ‘Political Stability and International Relations in the Process of Economic Globalisation — Another Perspective on Asia’s Financial Crisis’, unpublished article, Beijing, 2000, pp. 1-13; and Wang Zhengyi, ‘Conceptualising Economic Security and Governance: China Confronts Globalisation’, Pacific Review, 17:4 (2000), p. 542.

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  [440] Yu Yongding, ‘ China ’s Structural Adjustment’, unpublished paper, Seoul Conference, 2005, p. 2.

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  [441] Nolan, Transforming China , p. 61; Lex, ‘ China and International Law’, Financial Times, 30 April 2008.

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  [442] Clyde Prestowitz, Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East (New York: Basic Books, 2006), p. 61.

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  [443] George J. Gilboy, ‘The Myth behind China ’s Miracle’, Foreign Affairs, July/ August 2004, pp. 4–5.

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  [444] ‘The Dragon and the Eagle Survey’, The Economist, 2 October 2004, p. 11.

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  [445] Maddison, Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, p. 69.

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  [446] Yu Yongding, ‘ China ’s Structural Adjustment’, p. 1

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  [447] Interview with Yu Yongding, Singapore, 3 March 2006.

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  [448] Andy Xie, Asia/Pacific Economics, report for Morgan Stanley, November 2002.

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  [449] ‘ Guangdong Factories Drop Cheap for Chic’, South China Morning Post, 17 March 2008; ‘End of an Era for Pearl River Delta’, South China Morning Post, 9 February 2008.

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  [450] Yu Yongding, ‘China’s Rise, Twin Surplus and the Change of China’s Development Strategy’, unpublished paper, Namura Tokyo Club Conference, Kyoto, 21 November 2005, p. 12.

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  [451] Ibid., p. 11.

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  [452] Maddison, Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, pp. 94-6.

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  [453] Interview with Yu Yongding, Beijing, 6 December 2005: Wang Gungwu, ‘Ration alizing China ’s Place in Asia ’, in Reid and Zheng, Negotiating Asymmetry, p. 5.

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  [454] Yu Yongding, ‘ China ’s Rise, Twin Surplus and the Change of China’s Development Strategy’, p. 2.

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  [455] Prestowitz, Three Billion New Capitalists, p. 74.

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  [456] Joseph Stiglitz, ‘Development in Defiance of the Washington Consensus’, Guardian, 13 April 2006.

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  [457] Oded Shenkar, The Chinese Century: The Rising Chinese Economy and Its Impact on the Global Economy, the Balance of Power and Your Job (New Jersey: Wharton School Publishing, 2006), p. 114.

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  [458] Yu Yongding, ‘China’s Macroeconomic Development, Exchange Rate Policy and Global Imbalances’, unpublished paper, Asahi Shimbun Symposium, October 2005, pp. 2–3.

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  [459] Tom Mitchell and Geoff Dyer, ‘Heat in the Workshop’, Financial Times, 14 October 2007; ‘Inflation: China ’s Least Wanted Export’, Financial Times, 12 November 2007.

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  [460] Interview with Yu Yongding, Beijing, 6 December 2005.

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  [461] Ibid.

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  [462] The World Bank predicted a fall of almost 2 per cent in China’s growth rate in 2008 as compared with 2007; ‘China “On Course for Growth Slowdown”’, Financial Times, 4 February, 2008.

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  [463] Yu Yongding, ‘Opinions on Structure Reform and Exchange Rate Regimes’, pp. 1, 6–8.

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  [464] Interview with Yu Yongding, Singapore, 3 March 2006; and Yu Yongding, ‘Opinions on Structure Reform and Exchange Rate Regimes’.

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  [465] Yu Yongding, ‘ China ’s Structural Adjustment’, pp. 1–5.

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  [466] Interview with Zhu Wenhui, Beijing, 20 November 2006; interview with Fang Ning, Beijing, 7 December 2005; and interview with Wang Hui, Beijing, 23 May 2006.

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  [467] Ibid., p. 2.

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  [468] Peter Nolan, China at the Crossroads (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2004), p. 15.

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  [469] Maddison, Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, p. 98.

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  [470] Wang Zhengyi, ‘Conceptualising Economic Security and Governance’, pp. 531-4; Zheng Yongnian, Will China Become Democratic? pp. 296–301.

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  [471] Gittings, The Changing Face of China , pp. 274-5.

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  [472] Quoted in Zheng Yongnian, Discovering Chinese Nationalism in China , p. 32.

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  [473] Wang Zhengyi, ‘Conceptualising Economic Security and Governance’, pp. 534-5.

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  [474] Zheng Yongnian, Will China Become Democratic?, pp. 104- 5.

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  [475] Ibid., pp. 136-7.

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  [476] Zheng Yongnian, Discovering Chinese Nationalism in China , p. 32.

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  [477] Nolan, China at the Crossroads, p. 30. Chinese tax revenues increased by 22 per cent in 2006 and by 20 per cent in 2005, which suggests that this process is continuing.

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  [478] David Shambaugh, ‘The Rise of China and Asia’s New Dynamics’, in Shambaugh, ed., Power Shift: China and Asia’s New Dynamics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2005), p. 18.

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  [479] ‘Year of the Three Big Headaches’, South China Morning Post, 4 January 2007.

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  [480] ‘ China ’s Priorities’, Financial Times, 9 March 2008.

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  [481] Yu Yongding, ‘ China ’s Structural Adjustment’, p. 5.

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  [482] Yu Yongding, ‘ China ’s Rise, Twin Surplus and the Change of China’s Development Strategy’, pp. 24-5.

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  [483] ‘What Will the World Gain from China in 20 Years?’ China Business Review, March/April 2003.

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  [484] Zha Daojiong, ‘China’s Energy Security and Its International Relations’, China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, 3: 3 (November 2005), p. 44; and Yu Yongding, ‘The Interactions between China and the World Economy’, unpublished paper, Nikkei Simbon Symposium, 5 April 2005, p. 2.

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  [485] Lester R. Brown, ‘A New World Order’, Guardian, 25 January 2006.

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  [486] Javier Blas and Carola Hoyos, ‘IEA Predicts Oil Price to Rebound to $100’, Financial Times, 5 November 2008.

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  [487] Joseph Kahn and Jim Yardley, ‘As China Roars, Pollution Reaches Deadly Extremes’, New York Times, 26 August 2007.

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  [488] Elizabeth C. Economy, The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China’s Future (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2004), Chapter 2; Mark Elvin, The Retreat of the Elephants: An Environmental History of China (New Haven and London: Ya
le University Press, 2004), pp. 460-71.

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  [489] John Warburton and Leo Horn, ‘ China ’s Crisis: A Development Perspective (Part One)’, 25 October 2007, posted on www.chinadialogue.net.

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  [490] Gaoming Jiang and Jixi Gao, ‘The Terrible Cost of China’s Growth’, 12 January 2007, posted on www.chinadialogue.net; Economy, The River Runs Black, p. 18; Warburton and Horn, ‘China’s Crisis: A Development Perspective (Part One)’.

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  [491] ‘Chinese Carmakers Veer to Green’, International Herald Tribune, 21–22 April 2007.

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  [492] ‘Can Shanghai Turn Green and Grow?’, posted on www.bbc.co.uk/news; Lex, ‘Chinese Cars’, Financial Times, 6 July 2007.

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  [493] Yu Yongding, ‘The Interactions between China and the World Economy’, p. 3.

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  [494] ‘ China Gains on US in Emissions’, International Herald Tribune, 9 November 2006.

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  [495] Warburton and Horn, ‘ China ’s Crisis’.

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  [496] ‘China Gas Emissions “ May Pass US ”’, 25 April, 2007, posted on http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk. The International Energy Agency originally estimated that China would surpass the US in 2009 as the biggest emitter of the main gas linked to global warming.

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  [497] www.foundation.org.uk/801/311002_2pdf.

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  [498] Jonathon Porritt, ‘ China Could Lead the Fight for a Cooler Climate’, 13 November 2007, posted on www.chinadialogue.net (accessed 2/6/08). The Chinese National Climate Change Assessment Report has predicted that by 2020 the average temperature in China will increase by between 1.1 °C and 2.1 °C.

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  [499] Maddison, Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, p. 97.

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  [500] ‘Climate Key Issue for Wen at Asean Talks’, South China Morning Post, 19 November 2007.

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  [501] Warburton and Horn, ‘ China ’s Crisis (Part One)’.

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  [502] ‘Economy is More Important, China Says’, International Herald Tribune, 5 June 2007; Porritt, ‘ China Could Lead the Fight for a Cooler Climate.’

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  [503] Hu Angang, ‘Green Development: The Inevitable Choice for China, Parts One and Two’, posted on www.chinadialogue.net (acessed 2/6/08).

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  [504] Dominic Ziegler, ‘Reaching for Renaissance: A Special Report on China and Its Region’, The Economist, 31 March 2007.

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  [505] John Warburton and Leo Horn, ‘China’s Crisis: A Development Perspective (Part Two), 25 October 2007, posted on www.chinadialogue.net; Keith Bradsher and David Barboza, ‘Pollution from Chinese Coal Casts a Global Shadow’, New York Times, 11 June 2006.

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  [506] Porritt, ‘ China Could Lead the Fight for a Cooler Climate’.

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  [507] ‘ China Carmakers Go Green in Drive for Profit’, Financial Times, 20 April 2008.

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  [508] Each car had to spend one day a week off the road. These restrictions were reintroduced again after the Olympics in an effort to improve air quality.

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  [509] Chunli Lee, ‘Strategic Alliances of Chinese, Japanese and US firms in the Chinese Manufacturing Industry: The Impact of “China Prices” and Integrated Localization’, paper presented for the Fairbank Center for East Asia Research, Harvard University, October 2004.

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  [510] James Kynge, China Shakes the World: The Rise of a Hungry Nation (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 2006), pp. 160-62.

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  [511] Gilboy, ‘The Myth behind China ’s Miracle’, pp. 4–5.

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  [512] Kynge, China Shakes the World, pp. 108-10, 112; Shenkar, The Chinese Century, pp. 66-8.

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  [513] Kynge, China Shakes the World, p. 109.

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  [514] Prestowitz, Three Billion New Capitalists, pp. 147, 149; Kynge, China Shakes the World, pp. 83-4; Shenkar, The Chinese Century, p. 165.

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  [515] Kynge, China Shakes the World, pp. 72, 78–82.

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  [516] Prestowitz, Three Billion New Capitalists, p. 143.

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  [517] James Wilsdon and James Keeley, China: The Next Science Superpower? (London: Demos, 2007), p. 9.

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  [518] Ibid., p. 7.

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  [519] Ibid., p. 16.

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  [520] Ping Zhou and Loet Leydesdorff, ‘The Emergence of China as a Leading Nation in Science’, Research Policy, 35 (2006), pp. 86–92, 100; Wilsdon and Keeley, China, pp. 16–17.

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  [521] Zhou and Leydesdorff, ‘The Emergence of China as a Leading Nation in Science’, p. 100.

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  [522] Wilsdon and Keeley, China, p. 32.

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  [523] Nicholas D. Kristof, ‘The Educated Giant’, International Herald Tribune, 29 May 2007.

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  [524] Wilsdon and Keeley, China, p. 29.

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  [525] Zhou and Leydesdorff, ‘The Emergence of China as a Leading Nation in Science’, p. 84.

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  [526] Wilsdon and Keeley, China, pp. 30–31; Geoff Dyer, ‘How China is Rising Through the Innovation Ranks’, Financial Times, 5 January 2007; Shenkar, The Chinese Century, p. 74; Gittings, The Changing Face of China, p. 263.

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  [527] Suntech Power Holdings, for example, has grown big and successful as China’s leading maker of silicon photovoltaic solar cells; Thomas L. Friedman, ‘China’s Sunshine Boys’, International Herald Tribune, 7 December 2006. Also ‘China Climbs Technology Value Chain’, South China Morning Post, 30 March 2007; Victor Keegan, ‘Virtual China looks for Real Benefits’, Guardian, 1 November 2007; ‘High-tech-Hopefuls: A Special Report on Technology in India and China’, The Economist, 10 November 2007.

 

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