by Dietmar Wehr
As Koenig sat down in the Command Pod, he checked his memory about Coral Sea’s CO. Hector Cortez had been Coral Sea’s CO for a long time. In fact, now that he thought of it, Cortez could also be the most senior officer in the fleet in terms of years of service. But any claim to the Fleet Commander position on that basis had become moot when Molitor designated the Deputy Fleet Commander as his successor, no ifs, ands, or buts. If Dejanus wanted someone to bounce some ideas off, was it just coincidence that she picked the officer with the most experience? Koenig didn’t think so. He told the XO about Cortez’s seniority.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if the AFC calls a video conference of all COs before the end of my shift,” he said.
He turned out to be right about a call to set up a conference of COs, but it wasn’t a video conference. Dejanus had instructed all COs to physically come to Corregidor again. Now Koenig was certain that there was going to be more bad news. When he arrived at the same conference room as before, he saw that there were still a few officers missing and that Cortez was sitting to the immediate right of Dejanus. The two of them were having a whispered conversation, but Dejanus noticed Koenig as he walked past and gave him a quick wave. He nodded back and took a seat at the far end. His field promotion entitled him to sit at the same table as the other COs, but the unspoken understanding in the TOSF for situations like this was that field promotion officers defer to permanent rank officers such as, in this case, by allowing them to sit closer to the AFC. It took another 20 minutes or so for everyone to arrive and find a seat. When Dejanus stood up, all the chatter stopped.
“I’m sure all of you are wondering why it’s taken four days to have a CO conference and why in person when we could have done it by video. I’ll satisfy your curiosity shortly, but first there’s an important administration change that needs to be disseminated. Commander Molitor created the Deputy Fleet Commander position in order to formalize the chain of command and the line of succession. That position is currently vacant, as is the position of CO of Corregidor. I’ve decided that Commander Cortez will be the new Acting Deputy Fleet Commander and also the new CO of Corregidor, effective immediately. His XO on Coral Sea will get a field promotion and become her new CO. That takes care of the easy part of this conference. Now I’ll get down to the big questions. What do we do now? How do we get back to human space? I wanted all of you to be here in person so that I could use the holo-projector in this room to show you what we’re facing.” She activated a control embedded in the table in front of her and the room darkened. At the same time, a 3D star map appeared over the center of the oval conference table. Koenig had seen 3D star maps before but never one with this scale. Individual stars were almost impossible to make out. He did recognize the more or less spherical volume of space representing the limits of human exploration. It had a slight green color to it. On one side was the void and the Jab Empire, at least as much of it as humans knew about. There were three slender tendrils crossing the void that represented the chains of stars forming the bridges.
On the other side of human space was the Tong Empire, but again only what humans knew of it. It was colored red. Above, below and to either side of human space were several other alien races who were either friendly to humans or weren’t as technologically advanced and therefore represented no real threat.
“I think we all recognize the colored portion of the map. As you can see, that part of the map is off to one side. Now I’ll show you where we are,” said Dejanus. There were audible gasps as the map zoomed out until human space was a tiny ball of green. A single blue dot appeared near the edge of the map on the far side. Koenig was shocked. Knowing that they were 987 light years from their jump point was one thing, but seeing the distance in relative terms finally brought home how insanely far away they were from home.
“If it’s any consolation, I had the same visceral reaction when I saw this for the first time,” said Dejanus. “The number—987 light years—doesn’t even begin to really convey how difficult the journey back will be. That’s the length of a straight line between where we are now and where we started from. Obviously, we can’t move back to human space in a straight line. The astrogation AIs from all ships in the fleet have been working on this problem for three days, and I’ve been struggling with the results for the last 24 hours. Finding a path back has to be based on minimizing total jump risk. In peacetime, jumps with calculated risk of a miss of greater than 3% are allowed only in extenuating circumstances. Here is what the possible pathways look like when only jumps of 3% or better are shown.”
Fine yellow tendrils emerged from the blue dot and began to spread out like branches of a tree. Eventually they all stopped as paths ran into jumps with greater risk, with the farthest branch extending only about a tenth of the way back to the green sphere.
“As you can see, limiting ourselves to a 3% risk threshold doesn’t get us very far. Let’s go down to 8%.”
The tendrils now branched out even more divergently, with some reaching further towards the green sphere, but still not very far.
“I could keep on going in increments of 5%, but I think I’ve illustrated the point. We’re going to have to take far greater jump risks than we’re used to. I have a pretty good idea what all of you are asking yourselves: what is the highest jump probability that will trace a path all the way back to human space? I’ll show you the path first and then tell you the bad news.”
All of the yellow tendrils disappeared except for one that now reached all the way to the green sphere in a meandering path, which Koenig noticed passed through Tong space.
“This path, in theory, would get us home. But somewhere along it we would have to attempt six jumps that have miss probabilities of greater than 50%, and there are a far larger number of jumps in the 25-50% range. Even if we assume that we make every jump successfully, the time it would take to get all the way through this path would be 13.34 months and involve 89 jumps. It also has the disadvantage of leading right through the middle of Tong space. I doubt very much if the Tongs would be amenable to letting a fleet of human warships pass through their space unmolested. I can tell you that the TOSF brass wouldn’t tolerate an alien fleet passing through our space.” She paused to look around the table before continuing. “However, there are alternatives to this path. Not great alternatives but still worth considering.”
The meandering path disappeared and was replaced by a red line that was not straight, but instead made up of a series of minor zigzags.
“I call this path the gauntlet. It consists of 21 VERY long jumps to giant or super-giant stars. The best individual jump with the lowest probability of a miss is 45%. All the other jumps along this path are even worse. Those probabilities are based on the average observational alignment error of ships in this fleet. As you know, OAE is the difference between where the astrogational opticals say the ship is pointed and where the ship actually is pointed. The shipyard people claim that the OAE for a new ship is less than six decimal places, based on pre-commissioning field trials, but we know that over time the OAE increases as vibrations jiggle the opticals enough to mess up that alignment. Careful analysis of past jumps has resulted in revised OAEs for each ship in the fleet. Right now, there are three relatively new ships that have OAEs small enough to have a half decent chance of running the gauntlet successfully IF a certain procedure is followed. Without the procedure that I’m about to describe, even these three new ships would have only about a 75% chance of success for each jump. This is due mainly to lack of good data on the target star’s velocity and direction of movement. When light from a target star can take up to 100 years to reach us, that star has had plenty of time to move far enough from where it appears to be that the ship would miss the gravity well even though it was passing through the volume of space it was aiming for.”
“The way to get improved data is to take careful measurements of target stars further along the gauntlet. By comparing data from 300, 200 and 100 light years away, for example, it should be possible to get
some idea of the direction and distance that target star has traveled over a 200-year period. That means a ship would have to aim at a projected image of where AstroComp predicts the star will be by the time the ship gets there. This has never been tried before over distances this long, because there wasn’t any need to do so. If we apply this procedure to the longer jumps along what I think of as the milk run, we should be able to manage those jumps too.” She paused, and Koenig took note of the fact that the room was so quiet one could literally have heard a pin drop.
“There’s one more option. The astro AIs tell me that data on stars within human explored space is good enough to find this.” The star map disappeared to be replaced by just seven stars that seemed to be strung out in a line. Each star had a circle around it representing the width of the gravity well strong enough to force a ship to drop out of hyperspace.
“Now watch what happens when these seven stars are viewed from a different angle.” The holographic image slowly rotated until the circles overlapped in what reminded Koenig of the petals of an open flower.
“If a ship could initiate a jump with this aiming trajectory, it would represent an effectively much larger gravity well because if the ship missed the first one, it could still hit one of the other six. I was astonished to learn that a single jump along this trajectory would have at least an 89% probability of success, even if the jump was initiated from our current vicinity.” She looked around the table and nodded. “Yes, one roll of the dice, and if it works, that ship is in human space again. Now, the catch is this. Only a ship with a very low OAE would have that probability, and the jump is only possible if there’s a star somewhere along this trajectory as the starting point. There may be one star that is close enough for a ship to use it as a launch point, but our data isn’t good enough right now to say for sure if that’s the case.”
“So, to summarize, we have the 89-jump meandering path, which we’ll call the local milk run, the 21-jump gauntlet and the single jump that will be referred to from now on as the Hail Mary option. I’m calling it that because, if I was commanding a ship that was trying that option, I’d be praying to Mary for a miracle.” Koenig looked around at the others. A few had a hint of a smile on their faces, but nobody was laughing. They were still waiting for Dejanus to decide which option the fleet was going to take.
“Okay, after consulting with ADFC Cortez, I’ve made the following decisions. The bulk of the fleet will head along the local milk run path for the simple reason that 15 of our ships don’t have a low enough OAE to contemplate either of the other two options. If they tried it, it would be tantamount to committing suicide in my opinion. Not only will I not order any of those 15 ships to try the gauntlet or Hail Mary options, I’m specifically forbidding them. That leaves three ships that could possibly succeed in running the gauntlet, or in pulling off the Hail Mary option. They are the heavy cruiser Saratoga, and the light cruisers Excalibur and Javelin. These two light cruisers are of the same class and are designed specifically for reconnaissance missions. Ideally, I’d like to keep both of them with the fleet, but that would mean that only one of the other two options could be pursued, and I want both of them pursued for reasons that I’ll get to shortly. Therefore, Excalibur will stay with the Fleet. Javelin will be assigned the task of running the gauntlet where her stealthy design and state-of-the-art ECM suite will give her the best chance of sneaking through Tong space undetected. Saratoga will therefore attempt the Hail Mary option.”
“Because of the risks involved, both of those ships will be crewed by volunteers only. Any current member of their crews who does not wish to volunteer will be reassigned to another ship. I have a specific reason for ordering ships to try those two options. The chances of at least one ship getting home increases substantially if both options are tried. When a ship gets home, it will deliver my request that a resupply fleet, suitably reinforced, be sent through Tong space to rendezvous with us here.”
The star map returned and zoomed in to a point roughly two thirds of the way back along the milk run path.
“I’ve picked this particular system because it happens to be relatively close to one of the gauntlet target systems, and based on the limited data we have, there seems to be a chain of stars between this gauntlet star and the rendezvous star that can be crossed with minimal jump risk. The timing would appear to be just about right too. By the time we get to the rendezvous system, Javelin should have had enough time to get home, and the resupply fleet should have had enough time to be assembled and make it to the rendezvous system as well. If Saratoga gets home first, then there’ll be plenty of time to meet us with the resupply ships. That fleet will have to be made up of ships with very low OAEs in order to make the long jumps back along the gauntlet path, but I think the TOSF can handle that problem. This brings us to how to get Javelin and Saratoga to their starting points. As you can see here from the overall star map, Javelin can’t make the first long jump from our current location. She’ll have to travel with the Fleet until we get to this point. Javelin can then enter the gauntlet path from there. Saratoga will accompany the Fleet even further, until this point, which is the closest that the milk run will get to the Hail Mary launch system. By that time, we should know whether the launch star system is close enough to the trajectory to be usable. The volunteers will not take over Saratoga and Javelin until those ships are ready to split off from the Fleet.”
“That takes care of what we’re going to do. Now I’ll talk about how we do it. The Fleet’s food supply will not last long enough by itself to get us to the rendezvous point. We’re going to have to find secondary food sources, and by that I mean planets that have a biosphere compatible with our physiology. As the Fleet moves along the milk run path, it will send out scouting parties to nearby systems that allow for a quick return to the fleet further along the path. We will also be listening for signs of other technological races as we move forward. When we detect artificial EM signals from a star that we can reach, Excalibur, and perhaps Javelin too if she’s still available, will be sent to make a careful, covert reconnaissance and perhaps attempt to make contact. We can’t count on alien races being friendly or living on biologically compatible planets, but we can’t afford to not explore that possibility. I fully expect that somewhere between here and the rendezvous system, we’ll find compatible food sources. That’s the plan. I’ll take questions now.”
Koenig wasn’t surprised by the first question. It was on his mind too.
“What if we don’t find compatible food sources before our food runs out?”
Koenig didn’t even bother looking to see who had asked the question. Dejanus’s expression hadn’t changed one iota. She had clearly been expected this question at some point.
“I’ll answer the question, but I want it clearly understood that all of you will keep the answer to yourselves until I say otherwise. All ships in the fleet have been topped up to the same level. There is still some food left on Reforger. That will be the reserve. When the Fleet is about to exhaust the food that currently exists on each ship, and if no alternative sources of food have been found, then I’ll implement the backup plan which will consist of a lottery to select however many people the food reserve can keep alive long enough to get to the rendezvous point with enough left over to let them stay there for a while if they need to. Those who are not selected by the lottery will be given options to end their lives quickly and painlessly as alternatives to starving to death. I have discussed this backup plan with ADFC Cortez who agrees with me that he and I will not enter our names in the lottery. Clearly this scenario would be the worst possible one, but I don’t see any other way. Continuing to use our food reserve for the entire Fleet will not get us anywhere close to the rendezvous point before we all starve to death. At least with the backup plan, there’s a good chance that some of the men and women in this Fleet can make it home alive. Any other questions.”
Koenig was not surprised that there were none.
Chapter Four:
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Once all the COs were back on their ships, it didn’t take Dejanus long to get the Fleet moving to the side of the current system’s sun where they could start lining up for the first jump along the milk run path. Koenig was glad that Dejanus had instituted the Fleet-wide rationing regimen because it allowed for the minimum level of calories needed to keep a body alive over a long period of time. The rations set by her during the jump past Alpha9 had been less, as a temporary measure, and would have been too low to keep on going indefinitely. Whatever fat reserves Koenig has had months ago were almost gone, and being able to consume the higher level of calories felt almost like no rationing at all.
The first three jumps were uneventful and quick. After the third one, the Fleet took a few extra hours to scan the surrounding sky for signs of artificial EM transmissions, and they found them. Koenig was in his quarters taking care of routine ship administrative details when the com AI notified him of an incoming call from the AFC. With the video screen in front of him activated, Koenig waited until Dejanus appeared.
“What’s up, sir?” he asked.
“Well, first of all, when you and I are communicating privately like this, you can skip the ‘sir’. Call me Tyler and I’ll call you, Wolfe, okay?”
“Okay.”
“Good. Now, the reason for the call. We’ve picked up very faint EM signals that do not appear to be natural. They’re not amplitude or frequency modulated, so they could be video signals, but we haven’t been able to get coherent pictures yet. In any case, the source needs to be investigated, and I’m handing this assignment to Excalibur. All the astrogational data has already been sent to your astro AI. Your orders are as follows: Excalibur will approach the source system via a series of jumps. After each jump, you will carefully and passively scan that system for signs of intelligent life and life-bearing planets. If you find either, come back here and report. Do not try to make contact on your own initiative. After you’ve reported back, I may send you out again to try to make contact, or the Fleet might just do that as a combined force. If the source system turns out not to have any intelligent life or habitable planets, scan the surrounding systems for signals and then come back regardless of what you do or don’t find. Got it?”