Fatal Terrain

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Fatal Terrain Page 50

by Dale Brown


  and unimpeded, the Chinese M-9 missile streaked out of the

  sky ... and detonated its nuclear warhead about 20,000 feet

  above the large military city of Wonsan, on North Korea's

  east-central coastline.

  The warhead had the explosive power of 20,000 tons of

  TNT, so although the missile missed its preprograrnmed target

  coordinates by over a mile and a half, the effect of the blast

  was devastating. The nuclear explosion leveled the southeast

  portion of the city, completely destroying half of the above-

  ground buildings and facilities of the Korean People's Army's

  Southern Defense Sector headquarters, and substantially dam-

  aging the KPA Navy's Eastern Fleet headquarters and the sur-

  face and submarine naval bases located on Yonghung Bay.

  61though the city of Wonsan itself was spared from much of

  the nuclear blast because of the miss distance, almost twenty

  thousand civilians were killed or wounded in the blink of an

  eye that night, along with thousands of military men and

  women and their dependents on the military installations.

  Sun Ji Guoming scanned all the possible radio frequencies

  for any signs of the death and destruction he had caused that

  night, but the atmosphere for hundreds of miles around had

  been charged by the nuclear detonations and all the bands were

  jumbles of static-he could not communicate with anyone un-

  334 DALE BROWN

  til he was almost all the way across the Gulf of Chihli and

  over the coast near Tianjin, just sixty miles from Beijing. No

  matter, he thought. The war was on.

  Soon, Sun knew, China would be handed the keys to its

  twenty-third province, Taipei, by a world praying for the

  bombing and missile attacks and the nuclear devastation to

  cease. The world would soon know that China would not be

  denied complete reunification.

  U. STRATEGIC COMMAND COMMAND CENTER,

  OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE, BELLEVUE, NEBRASKA

  SATURDAY, 21 JUNE 1997,

  1601 HOURS LOCAL (1701 HOURS ET)

  "The invasion of Taiwan appears to be under way," the in-

  telligence officer said casually. If it were not such a serious

  matter, many of the men assembled before him might be

  laughing at the understated irony of that statement. It was not

  just Taiwan that was under attack-it seemed the stability of

  the entire planet was crumbling.

  "The Chinese are on the move everywhere," the intelli-

  gence officer continued. He was standing at the podium on the

  stage in the U. Strategic Command command center, three

  stories underground in the middle of Offutt Air Force Base in

  central Nebraska. "At least three -divisions massing along Xia-

  men Bay at Amoy, Liuwadian, Shijing, Dongshi, and Weitou.

  At these and several other locations, PLA artillery and rocket

  units have begun shelling the northern shoreline of Quemoy

  in an obvious 'softening-up' attack. We're looking at three

  hundred multiple rocket launcher units, two hundred and

  twenty artillery batteries, and at least sixty short-range ballistic

  rocket units arrayed along the bay. Resupply is coming in

  mostly by rail and by truck."

  "What about amphibious landingcapability?" one member

  of the STRATCOM staff asked. "We've been briefed that the

  Chinese don't have much of an amphibious assault capability.

  How are they going to move three divisions to Quemoy?"

  "The reports of the People's Liberation Army's lack of am-

  phibious capability was apparently grossly underestimated,"

  FATAL T ER RAI N 335

  the briefer responded. "Most forces needed for an amphibious

  invasion were not based with active-duty units, but sent instead

  to reserve and militia units that kept them separate and inac-

  tive. Now that the reserves and militia have been called up to

  support the invasion, we have a better picture'of the PLA's

  amphibious assault capability, and it is quite substantial:

  "The Taiwandse government has already reported airborne

  assaults in the early-morning hours by several cargo aircraft,

  with as many as a thousand commandos dropped on Quemoy

  in the past couple hours. They also report several forty-five-

  and thirty-five-meter air-cushion landing craft spotted along

  the western shores of Quemoy, including three on the beach.

  Each of these can carry as many as fifty troops and two fast

  armored assault vehicles, armored trucks, mobile antiaircraft

  artillery units, or small tanks. The Taiwanese have not reported

  where these commandos may be massing; they speculate that

  it may be part of a large reconnaissance or artillery-targeting

  patrol, or perhaps a plan to insert a great number of spies on

  the island. China was reported to have only a few of these air-

  cushion landing craft, but we're seeing reports of as many as

  a dozen.

  I I

  Several classes of amphibious assault ships have been

  spotted on shore, including some never classified previously

  and many thought to have been discarded or not in service,"

  the briefer continued. "It's very difficult to determine exact

  numbers, but one estimate said that the PLAN has enough

  ships for a twenty-thousand-man assault on Quemoy anytime.

  They could possibly lift an entire brigade onto Quemoy in two

  to three days if unopposed."

  "How many troops does Taiwan have on Quemoy?" one

  of the staff officers asked.

  "Estimated at between sixty and seventy thousand," the

  briefer replied. "But we have not been given any casualty

  reports from the attack earlier today. Any troops stationed in

  unprotected areas might have been injured enough to make

  them combat-ineffective."

  "Estimate of that number?"

  There was a slight pause, as the enormity of the number he

  was about to give caught up with him; then he responded in

  a hard-edged monotone: "Half. As many as thirty-five thou-

  sand casualties possible on Quemoy."

  The STRATCOM members listening were stunned into si-

  336 DALE BROWN

  lence. They could hardly believe what had happened: in re-

  pelling a Taiwanese air invasion of Chinese invasion forces

  arrayed around Quemoy, the People's Republic of China had

  launched several surface-to-air missiles armed with nuclear

  warheads. The entire Taiwanese air invasion armada, estimated

  at thirty-two frontline U.-made F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter-

  bombers-two-thirds of its F-16 fleet and 10 percent of its

  entire active military air inventory-had been destroyed in-

  stantly.

  "The five massive nuclear explosions occurred almost di-

  rectly over Quemoy Island at an altitude of about thirty thou-

  sand feet, high enough so the fireballs did not touch the

  ground, but near enough to cause extensive damage from the

  heat and overpressure," the briefer went on. "Danger of ra-

  dioactive fallout is low; the southern portion of Taiwan and

  northern Philippines might be affected. The aircraft carrier

  George Washington has been diverted to keep it out of th
e

  danger area."

  "In apparent retaliation for the attacks on the mainland,

  China staged a massive counterattack, beginning with a feint

  by large fighter formations that drew away Taiwan's air de-

  fense fighters, followed by three large formations of heavy

  bombers attacking with short-range nuclear cruise missiles and

  conventional gravity bombs that almost completely destroyed

  four major air bases in the western portion of Taiwan," the

  intelligence officer continued. "The Chinese then followed up

  with medium-range nuclear ballistic missile attacks on three

  eastern Taiwan air and naval bases. The nuclear warheads were

  small high-altitude airbursts, less than forty-kiloton yields, but

  they were very effective. Half of Taiwan's air defense system,

  including substantially all its air forces and a third of its

  ground-based air defense weapons and radars, were de-

  stroyed.

  "Any reports about Taiwan's defense posture?"

  "Virtually nothing from Taipei at all, sir," the briefer re-

  plied. "Lots of reports of Chinese troop movements, but noth-

  ing regarding their own forces. No sign of the sixteen F-16

  fighter-bombers that hit Juidongshan earlier. AWACS radar

  planes report formations of fighters, believed to be F-5s, over

  northern Taiwan, but Air Combat Command and the Navy

  want to get a better picture of the situation over Taiwan before

  moving radar planes closer.

  FATAL TERRAIN 337

  "Now, over to the east, something else broke out between

  North and South Korea about an hour after the attacks over

  Taiwan began," the briefer went on. "The ROK air force de-

  tected a ballistic missile inbound from the west-northwest, pos-

  sibly from the North Korean naval base at Haeju or fi-orn a

  surface ship off the coast. Air defense missile units at Inchon

  and Seoul successfully engaged and destroyed the inbound.

  The ROK then reported a second missile headed north over

  the border. Moments later, a hot nuclear detonation was de-

  tected over Wonsan, the army and navy headquarters base in

  the eastern DPRK. The ROK denies it fired any missiles, al-

  though it does admit they returned artillery and rocket fire with

  the North at many different locations along the DMZ after the

  nuclear explosion.

  "The ROK is on full military alert, as is the North." The

  intelligence officer ran down a summary of the military de-

  ployments on both sides-almost two million troops and

  thousands of tanks, military vehicles, artillery pieces, and rock-

  ets were staring at each other all along the 140-mile-long fron-

  tier, with about a dozen clashes already breaking out in various

  parts of the DMZ. "Of course," the briefer summarized, "all

  nations in the region are on a high state of alert."

  "No shit," Admiral Henry Danforth, the commander in

  chief of U. Strategic Command, gasped aloud. "Any idea at

  all who launched against the Koreans?"

  "Both sides are denying it, as are the Chinese," the briefer

  responded. "We have polled our naval and air forces in the

  Yellow Sea and western Korean Peninsula region, and no one

  fired anything-the Navy is conducting an audit of all its

  forces, but that will be hampered by the alert. We've ruled out

  the Chinese ballistic missile subs-one has been in dry dock

  for some time, and the other two Chinese boomers are being

  shadowed by American attack subs, and they report no activ-

  ity. The only possible explanation is one or two Chinese mis-

  siles that were supposed to hit Taiwan somehow veered six

  hundred miles off course and accidentally hit Korea, but that's

  unlikely. We're still investigating."

  "Sweet Jesus, I can't believe it," Danforth muttered.

  "China actually went ahead and pushed the button." Admiral

  Danforth swiveled around in his seat until he could see General

  Samson, sitting behind him in the second row of the Battle

  Staff Room. "Still think we should recommend to the Presi-

  338 DALE BROWN

  dent that we take the bombers off nuclear alert, General Sam-

  son?" he asked.

  "Admiral, the invasion of Quemoy, Taiwan, and perhaps

  even South Korea was going to occur no matter how many

  nuclear weapons we put back on alert," Samson said. "The

  Chinese destroyed an American aircraft carrier, launched a nu-

  clear bombing raid on Taiwan, and I believe tried to instigate

  a second Korean War by shooting missiles over both North

  and South Korea-but are we any closer to declaring war on

  China, let alone a nuclear war?"

  "I think we are, and the National Command Authority ap-

  parently agrees," Danforth said. "I'm recommending to the

  NCA that we go to DEFCON Three, deploy the ballistic mis-

  sile sub fleet, put the bombers on restricted alert, and MIRV

  up all of the Peacekeeper and Minuteman ICBMs.- The fifty

  LGM- I 18A Peacekeeper missiles were America's largest and

  most powerful nuclear weapon. Headquartered in Wyoming

  but based in underground silos in Colorado and Nebraska as

  well, the huge 195,000-pound missiles, when fully "MIRVed

  up," could carry as many as ten Mk 21 nuclear Multiple In-

  dependent Reentry Vehicles to targets as far as ten thousand

  miles away. The five hundred LGM-30G Minuteman III I'Mis-

  siles now on alert at bases in North Dakota, Wyoming, and

  Montana carried up to three Mk 12 nuclear warheads.

  "Sir, I believe that would be a mistake," Terrill Samson

  said earnestly. "I've got to restate m position for the staff."

  Danforth looked very perturbed-Samson could see a jaw

  muscle flexing in the dim light of the Battle Staff Room. But

  CINCSTRATCOM motioned for Samson to step down. "Let's

  hear it, Terrill," he said. Samson gathered up a folder of notes

  and stepped down to the podium in front of the auditorium-

  like seats of the Battle Staff Room.

  "Admiral, I'll be as blunt as I can-the Chinese won't be-

  lieve we will use nuclear weapons against them because I don't

  believe we would," Samson said, "and if you can't make me

  believe it, they certainly won't."

  "The President, the Secretary of Defense, the chairman of

  the Joint Chiefs, and me say you're wrong," Danforth said

  irritably. "Part of the problem is, General, is that the bombers

  aren't coming up fast enough to make the Chinese think we're

  serious about putting a nuclear strike force on alert. That's

  your responsibility."

  FATAL T ER RAI N 339

  "With all due respect, Admiral, I think you're wrong,

  Samson said. "The bombers are taking twice as long to come

  up as we planned because the crews practice all year for con-

  ventional bombing missions, but almost never for nuclear mis-

  sions. The Chinese know this. We are just now discussing

  moving up the generation schedule for the bombers, several

  hours after we lose six thousand troops in a nuclear attack-

  if we were serious about using nuclear weapons, our counter-

  attack would have been launched long ago."<
br />
  "I don't appreciate your talking in absolutes about things

  we have no way of knowing, General," Danforth said. "Make

  your point."

  "Sir, my staff and I have prepared a target list and strike

  plan for central and eastern China that I would like approval

  for issuance of a warning order," Samson said. "I want four

  B-2s, twenty B-IB bombers, and eight KC-135 or two KC-10

  tankers, plus a list of non-nuclear weapons. The target list

  includes Chinese long-, intermediate-, and short-range nuclear

  missile sites, known nuclear weapon storage and maintenance

  bases,.air defense sites, and communications centers ... vir-

  tually the same targets we have at risk under the SIOP, sir,

  but targeted with bombers carrying conventionally armed

  cruise missiles, precision-guided cruise missiles, and satellite-

  guided gravity bombs.

  "We can halt the SIOP generation of the bombers I need

  and reconfigure them easily for the conventional mission,"

  Samson continued. "I plan to launch all twenty-four aircraft,

  pick the best twelve and have them continue to their targets,

  and recover the remaining twelve on Guam for refueling and

  launch them as a follow-on attack. Within twenty-four hours,

  we can have the bombers launched; within eighteen hours, the

  bombers will be striking targets in China and recovering at

  Guam, ready to begin round-the-clock attack operations. Com-

  mit the remainder of the bombers, and we can begin surge

  operations that can hold China's entire military at risk and

  even assist in air operations over North Korea at the same time

  if needed. I can guarantee-"

  "Frankly, General Samson, your management of the Air

  Force bomber fleet up to this point has been something far less

  than adequate," Danforth interrupted, with a definite note of

  exasperation in his voice, "and I don't think you're in a po-

  sition to guarantee anything."

  340 DALE BROWN

  "Sir, I feel that your current deployment of the bomber

  force is a waste of time, money, and manpower, and will do

  nothing to resolve the situation." Samson could see Danforth

  bristling with anger, but decided to quickly press on and say I

 

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