by Dale Brown
and unimpeded, the Chinese M-9 missile streaked out of the
sky ... and detonated its nuclear warhead about 20,000 feet
above the large military city of Wonsan, on North Korea's
east-central coastline.
The warhead had the explosive power of 20,000 tons of
TNT, so although the missile missed its preprograrnmed target
coordinates by over a mile and a half, the effect of the blast
was devastating. The nuclear explosion leveled the southeast
portion of the city, completely destroying half of the above-
ground buildings and facilities of the Korean People's Army's
Southern Defense Sector headquarters, and substantially dam-
aging the KPA Navy's Eastern Fleet headquarters and the sur-
face and submarine naval bases located on Yonghung Bay.
61though the city of Wonsan itself was spared from much of
the nuclear blast because of the miss distance, almost twenty
thousand civilians were killed or wounded in the blink of an
eye that night, along with thousands of military men and
women and their dependents on the military installations.
Sun Ji Guoming scanned all the possible radio frequencies
for any signs of the death and destruction he had caused that
night, but the atmosphere for hundreds of miles around had
been charged by the nuclear detonations and all the bands were
jumbles of static-he could not communicate with anyone un-
334 DALE BROWN
til he was almost all the way across the Gulf of Chihli and
over the coast near Tianjin, just sixty miles from Beijing. No
matter, he thought. The war was on.
Soon, Sun knew, China would be handed the keys to its
twenty-third province, Taipei, by a world praying for the
bombing and missile attacks and the nuclear devastation to
cease. The world would soon know that China would not be
denied complete reunification.
U. STRATEGIC COMMAND COMMAND CENTER,
OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE, BELLEVUE, NEBRASKA
SATURDAY, 21 JUNE 1997,
1601 HOURS LOCAL (1701 HOURS ET)
"The invasion of Taiwan appears to be under way," the in-
telligence officer said casually. If it were not such a serious
matter, many of the men assembled before him might be
laughing at the understated irony of that statement. It was not
just Taiwan that was under attack-it seemed the stability of
the entire planet was crumbling.
"The Chinese are on the move everywhere," the intelli-
gence officer continued. He was standing at the podium on the
stage in the U. Strategic Command command center, three
stories underground in the middle of Offutt Air Force Base in
central Nebraska. "At least three -divisions massing along Xia-
men Bay at Amoy, Liuwadian, Shijing, Dongshi, and Weitou.
At these and several other locations, PLA artillery and rocket
units have begun shelling the northern shoreline of Quemoy
in an obvious 'softening-up' attack. We're looking at three
hundred multiple rocket launcher units, two hundred and
twenty artillery batteries, and at least sixty short-range ballistic
rocket units arrayed along the bay. Resupply is coming in
mostly by rail and by truck."
"What about amphibious landingcapability?" one member
of the STRATCOM staff asked. "We've been briefed that the
Chinese don't have much of an amphibious assault capability.
How are they going to move three divisions to Quemoy?"
"The reports of the People's Liberation Army's lack of am-
phibious capability was apparently grossly underestimated,"
FATAL T ER RAI N 335
the briefer responded. "Most forces needed for an amphibious
invasion were not based with active-duty units, but sent instead
to reserve and militia units that kept them separate and inac-
tive. Now that the reserves and militia have been called up to
support the invasion, we have a better picture'of the PLA's
amphibious assault capability, and it is quite substantial:
"The Taiwandse government has already reported airborne
assaults in the early-morning hours by several cargo aircraft,
with as many as a thousand commandos dropped on Quemoy
in the past couple hours. They also report several forty-five-
and thirty-five-meter air-cushion landing craft spotted along
the western shores of Quemoy, including three on the beach.
Each of these can carry as many as fifty troops and two fast
armored assault vehicles, armored trucks, mobile antiaircraft
artillery units, or small tanks. The Taiwanese have not reported
where these commandos may be massing; they speculate that
it may be part of a large reconnaissance or artillery-targeting
patrol, or perhaps a plan to insert a great number of spies on
the island. China was reported to have only a few of these air-
cushion landing craft, but we're seeing reports of as many as
a dozen.
I I
Several classes of amphibious assault ships have been
spotted on shore, including some never classified previously
and many thought to have been discarded or not in service,"
the briefer continued. "It's very difficult to determine exact
numbers, but one estimate said that the PLAN has enough
ships for a twenty-thousand-man assault on Quemoy anytime.
They could possibly lift an entire brigade onto Quemoy in two
to three days if unopposed."
"How many troops does Taiwan have on Quemoy?" one
of the staff officers asked.
"Estimated at between sixty and seventy thousand," the
briefer replied. "But we have not been given any casualty
reports from the attack earlier today. Any troops stationed in
unprotected areas might have been injured enough to make
them combat-ineffective."
"Estimate of that number?"
There was a slight pause, as the enormity of the number he
was about to give caught up with him; then he responded in
a hard-edged monotone: "Half. As many as thirty-five thou-
sand casualties possible on Quemoy."
The STRATCOM members listening were stunned into si-
336 DALE BROWN
lence. They could hardly believe what had happened: in re-
pelling a Taiwanese air invasion of Chinese invasion forces
arrayed around Quemoy, the People's Republic of China had
launched several surface-to-air missiles armed with nuclear
warheads. The entire Taiwanese air invasion armada, estimated
at thirty-two frontline U.-made F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter-
bombers-two-thirds of its F-16 fleet and 10 percent of its
entire active military air inventory-had been destroyed in-
stantly.
"The five massive nuclear explosions occurred almost di-
rectly over Quemoy Island at an altitude of about thirty thou-
sand feet, high enough so the fireballs did not touch the
ground, but near enough to cause extensive damage from the
heat and overpressure," the briefer went on. "Danger of ra-
dioactive fallout is low; the southern portion of Taiwan and
northern Philippines might be affected. The aircraft carrier
George Washington has been diverted to keep it out of th
e
danger area."
"In apparent retaliation for the attacks on the mainland,
China staged a massive counterattack, beginning with a feint
by large fighter formations that drew away Taiwan's air de-
fense fighters, followed by three large formations of heavy
bombers attacking with short-range nuclear cruise missiles and
conventional gravity bombs that almost completely destroyed
four major air bases in the western portion of Taiwan," the
intelligence officer continued. "The Chinese then followed up
with medium-range nuclear ballistic missile attacks on three
eastern Taiwan air and naval bases. The nuclear warheads were
small high-altitude airbursts, less than forty-kiloton yields, but
they were very effective. Half of Taiwan's air defense system,
including substantially all its air forces and a third of its
ground-based air defense weapons and radars, were de-
stroyed.
"Any reports about Taiwan's defense posture?"
"Virtually nothing from Taipei at all, sir," the briefer re-
plied. "Lots of reports of Chinese troop movements, but noth-
ing regarding their own forces. No sign of the sixteen F-16
fighter-bombers that hit Juidongshan earlier. AWACS radar
planes report formations of fighters, believed to be F-5s, over
northern Taiwan, but Air Combat Command and the Navy
want to get a better picture of the situation over Taiwan before
moving radar planes closer.
FATAL TERRAIN 337
"Now, over to the east, something else broke out between
North and South Korea about an hour after the attacks over
Taiwan began," the briefer went on. "The ROK air force de-
tected a ballistic missile inbound from the west-northwest, pos-
sibly from the North Korean naval base at Haeju or fi-orn a
surface ship off the coast. Air defense missile units at Inchon
and Seoul successfully engaged and destroyed the inbound.
The ROK then reported a second missile headed north over
the border. Moments later, a hot nuclear detonation was de-
tected over Wonsan, the army and navy headquarters base in
the eastern DPRK. The ROK denies it fired any missiles, al-
though it does admit they returned artillery and rocket fire with
the North at many different locations along the DMZ after the
nuclear explosion.
"The ROK is on full military alert, as is the North." The
intelligence officer ran down a summary of the military de-
ployments on both sides-almost two million troops and
thousands of tanks, military vehicles, artillery pieces, and rock-
ets were staring at each other all along the 140-mile-long fron-
tier, with about a dozen clashes already breaking out in various
parts of the DMZ. "Of course," the briefer summarized, "all
nations in the region are on a high state of alert."
"No shit," Admiral Henry Danforth, the commander in
chief of U. Strategic Command, gasped aloud. "Any idea at
all who launched against the Koreans?"
"Both sides are denying it, as are the Chinese," the briefer
responded. "We have polled our naval and air forces in the
Yellow Sea and western Korean Peninsula region, and no one
fired anything-the Navy is conducting an audit of all its
forces, but that will be hampered by the alert. We've ruled out
the Chinese ballistic missile subs-one has been in dry dock
for some time, and the other two Chinese boomers are being
shadowed by American attack subs, and they report no activ-
ity. The only possible explanation is one or two Chinese mis-
siles that were supposed to hit Taiwan somehow veered six
hundred miles off course and accidentally hit Korea, but that's
unlikely. We're still investigating."
"Sweet Jesus, I can't believe it," Danforth muttered.
"China actually went ahead and pushed the button." Admiral
Danforth swiveled around in his seat until he could see General
Samson, sitting behind him in the second row of the Battle
Staff Room. "Still think we should recommend to the Presi-
338 DALE BROWN
dent that we take the bombers off nuclear alert, General Sam-
son?" he asked.
"Admiral, the invasion of Quemoy, Taiwan, and perhaps
even South Korea was going to occur no matter how many
nuclear weapons we put back on alert," Samson said. "The
Chinese destroyed an American aircraft carrier, launched a nu-
clear bombing raid on Taiwan, and I believe tried to instigate
a second Korean War by shooting missiles over both North
and South Korea-but are we any closer to declaring war on
China, let alone a nuclear war?"
"I think we are, and the National Command Authority ap-
parently agrees," Danforth said. "I'm recommending to the
NCA that we go to DEFCON Three, deploy the ballistic mis-
sile sub fleet, put the bombers on restricted alert, and MIRV
up all of the Peacekeeper and Minuteman ICBMs.- The fifty
LGM- I 18A Peacekeeper missiles were America's largest and
most powerful nuclear weapon. Headquartered in Wyoming
but based in underground silos in Colorado and Nebraska as
well, the huge 195,000-pound missiles, when fully "MIRVed
up," could carry as many as ten Mk 21 nuclear Multiple In-
dependent Reentry Vehicles to targets as far as ten thousand
miles away. The five hundred LGM-30G Minuteman III I'Mis-
siles now on alert at bases in North Dakota, Wyoming, and
Montana carried up to three Mk 12 nuclear warheads.
"Sir, I believe that would be a mistake," Terrill Samson
said earnestly. "I've got to restate m position for the staff."
Danforth looked very perturbed-Samson could see a jaw
muscle flexing in the dim light of the Battle Staff Room. But
CINCSTRATCOM motioned for Samson to step down. "Let's
hear it, Terrill," he said. Samson gathered up a folder of notes
and stepped down to the podium in front of the auditorium-
like seats of the Battle Staff Room.
"Admiral, I'll be as blunt as I can-the Chinese won't be-
lieve we will use nuclear weapons against them because I don't
believe we would," Samson said, "and if you can't make me
believe it, they certainly won't."
"The President, the Secretary of Defense, the chairman of
the Joint Chiefs, and me say you're wrong," Danforth said
irritably. "Part of the problem is, General, is that the bombers
aren't coming up fast enough to make the Chinese think we're
serious about putting a nuclear strike force on alert. That's
your responsibility."
FATAL T ER RAI N 339
"With all due respect, Admiral, I think you're wrong,
Samson said. "The bombers are taking twice as long to come
up as we planned because the crews practice all year for con-
ventional bombing missions, but almost never for nuclear mis-
sions. The Chinese know this. We are just now discussing
moving up the generation schedule for the bombers, several
hours after we lose six thousand troops in a nuclear attack-
if we were serious about using nuclear weapons, our counter-
attack would have been launched long ago."<
br />
"I don't appreciate your talking in absolutes about things
we have no way of knowing, General," Danforth said. "Make
your point."
"Sir, my staff and I have prepared a target list and strike
plan for central and eastern China that I would like approval
for issuance of a warning order," Samson said. "I want four
B-2s, twenty B-IB bombers, and eight KC-135 or two KC-10
tankers, plus a list of non-nuclear weapons. The target list
includes Chinese long-, intermediate-, and short-range nuclear
missile sites, known nuclear weapon storage and maintenance
bases,.air defense sites, and communications centers ... vir-
tually the same targets we have at risk under the SIOP, sir,
but targeted with bombers carrying conventionally armed
cruise missiles, precision-guided cruise missiles, and satellite-
guided gravity bombs.
"We can halt the SIOP generation of the bombers I need
and reconfigure them easily for the conventional mission,"
Samson continued. "I plan to launch all twenty-four aircraft,
pick the best twelve and have them continue to their targets,
and recover the remaining twelve on Guam for refueling and
launch them as a follow-on attack. Within twenty-four hours,
we can have the bombers launched; within eighteen hours, the
bombers will be striking targets in China and recovering at
Guam, ready to begin round-the-clock attack operations. Com-
mit the remainder of the bombers, and we can begin surge
operations that can hold China's entire military at risk and
even assist in air operations over North Korea at the same time
if needed. I can guarantee-"
"Frankly, General Samson, your management of the Air
Force bomber fleet up to this point has been something far less
than adequate," Danforth interrupted, with a definite note of
exasperation in his voice, "and I don't think you're in a po-
sition to guarantee anything."
340 DALE BROWN
"Sir, I feel that your current deployment of the bomber
force is a waste of time, money, and manpower, and will do
nothing to resolve the situation." Samson could see Danforth
bristling with anger, but decided to quickly press on and say I