by Morris, Ian;
Soothing Scenario: J. Mann 2007. China and democracy: Y. Zheng 2004, 2010.
Easternization of the West: Kurlantzick 2007.
International relations realists: Johnston 1995.
Energy: Smil 2006.
Singularity: Kurzweil 2005, with http://www.singularity.com, http://www.kurzweilAI.net, and http://www.singularitysummit.com. Criticisms: Lanier 2000, Richards et al. 2002, McKibben 2003. Moore’s Law: G. Moore 1965, 1999, 2003. Brain mapping: http://www.loni.ucla/ICBM/ and http://www.brainmapping.org, constantly updated.
Tiger Woods and Oscar Pistorius: http://www.slate.com/id/2116858/; http://www.slate.com/id/2191801/.
Eugenics debates: writings on augmented bodies and brains tend to be either very upbeat (for example, Naam 2005, R. Green 2007) or very worried about the preservation of identity (for example, Fukuyama 2002, S. Rose 2006). Rifkin 1998, though now a little dated, is more balanced.
Brain Interface Project: http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/05/pentagon-preps-soldier-telepathy-push); Singer 2009, pp. 72–74. Molecular computing: Benenson et al. 2004.
IBM Blue Gene computers: http://www.research.ibm.com/journal/rd49-23.html. Mouse and rat simulations: Frye et al. 2007, Ananthanarayanan and Modha 2007; http://p9.hostingprod.com/@modha.org/blog/2007/11/faq_anatomy_of_a _cortical_simu.html. Energy and cooling requirements: The Economist Technology Quarterly, December 6, 2008, pp. 6–8 (available at http://www.economist.com/specialreports). Project Kittyhawk: Appavoo et al. 2008.
Synthetic life: Gibson et al. 2010 (http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/science.1190719).
Carlson’s Curve: Robert Carlson, “Open Source Biology and its Impact on Industry,” IEEE Spectrum, May 2001 (available at http://synthesis.cc/Biol_Tech_2050.pdf); Carlson 2010.
Freeman-Spogli Institute’s “World at Risk” conference: http://fsi.stanford.edu/events/2006_fsi_international_conference_a_world_at_risk/.
Worst-case scenarios generally: Diamond 2005, Smil 2008, Sunstein 2007.
Climate change: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Smil 2008. Estimates of polar melting: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm. Global weirding: T. Friedman 2008. Abrupt change: Pearce 2008. Stern Review: Stern 2006.
Climate and food: Easterling 2007, Battisti and Naylor 2009, Lobell and Burke 2010. Food: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/en/, http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/ai474e/ai474e13.htm, and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_crisis. Regional impacts: Bättig et al. 2007. Water: Pearce 2007.
There is a huge literature on migration into the United States and western Europe, much of it highly partisan. Swain 2007, The Economist’s survey of migration (“Open Up: A Special Report on Immigration,” The Economist, January 5, 2008; available at http://www.economist.com/specialreports), Caldwell 2009, and R. Hsu 2010 make efforts to cover all sides of the questions. Post-2008 trends: Papademetriou and Terrazas 2009.
Migration and disease: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dq/. Influenza: Barry 2005, MacKellar 2007, Davis 2006, http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/index.php and http://www.who.int/en/.
Great-power involvement in the arc of instability: G. Friedman 2004, Oren 2007. China and resources: Zweig and Bi 2005. Peaceful rising: B. Zheng 2005. Terrorist risks: Graham and Talent 2008. Israel and Iran: “The Gathering Storm,” The Economist, January 7, 2010 (available at http://www.economist.com). Conflict in the twenty-first century: G. Friedman 2009, Fukuyama 2008, Khanna 2008, Krepinevich 2009, Zakaria 2008. Chinese and American military strengths: R. Kaplan 2005. Chinese missile test: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2010-01/11/content_12792329.htm. Chinese aircraft carrier: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/04/22/world/main4960774.shtml?source=RSSattr=HOME_4960774.
Nuclear arms reduction: George Schultz et al., “A World Free of Nuclear Weapons,” Wall Street Journal, January 4, 2007, p. A15 (available at http://www.fcnl.org/issues/item.php?item_id=2252&issue_id=54; “Toward a Nuclear-Free World,” Wall Street Journal, January 15, 2008 (available at http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB120036422673589947.html); Perkovich and Zaum 2008; Sagan and Miller 2009–2010. Decline of arsenals: Norris and Kristensen 2008, 2009a, b, 2010. Doomsday Clock: http://www.thebulletin.org/content/media-center/announcements/2010/01/14/it-6-minutes-to-midnight.
Reducing consumption: McKibben 2010, Wells 2010.
Kyoto Protocol: text at http://unfccc.int/kyoto-protocol/items/2830.php. Data on emissions since 1990: http://unfccc.int/files/inc/graphics/image/gif/total_excluding_2008.gif; http://co2now.org/. Estimate of costs: Juliette Jowit and Patrick Wintour. “Cost of Tackling Global Climate Change Has Doubled, Warns Stern,” The Guardian, June 26, 2008 (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jun/26/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange). Some economists (for example, Nordhaus 2007) are critical, but an Australian report (Garnaut 2008) has reached similar conclusions to Stern.
Nonstate organizations: T. Friedman 1999, van Creveld 1999.
Energy issues: Smil 2006.
Fermi Paradox: E. Jones 1985, Webb 2002. Search for extraterrestrials: Impey 2007, P. Davies 2010.
Million civilizations: Shklovskii and Sagan 1968, p. 448. Drake’s Equation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation.
High-tech weapons: Adams 2008, Singer 2009.
Extinctions: Thomas et al. 2004. Sixth great extinction: Leakey and Lewin 1995.
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