Day 22
Sunday 5th January
10 Downing Street
‘Good morning, your Majesty.’
Sir Ian James, in the absence and demise of the Prime Minister who had taken his own life so close to the end, was confirming the news to the Queen at Sandringham.
‘It's very sad, Sir Ian, but this really is no time for weakness and all things considered, it is probably better that we have to look for a new leader to see us through this crisis. It is upon this subject that I wish to speak this morning. It is clear that the snow has now stopped – for the time being – and we need to take full advantage of the situation whilst we still can! I have been conversing with the Senior Royal Protection Officer, Robert Williams, who has done a truly magnificent job in securing our safety during the storm. Not one of the Family or staff has been lost and this is entirely due to his splendid efforts. He will be Sir Robert before the day is out. I appreciate that this is an unusual move but these are unusual times, so I am using my special powers to bestow a Knighthood for his outstanding performance – and he will be expected to do much, much more before this is over.’
Sir Ian indicated his approval as HM continued.
‘Sir Ian, I now come to the subject of who is to lead us through these terrible times. I have been kept fully apprised of the horrific conditions in the country and have been speaking to our people in Brussels, who are now starting to co-ordinate rescue operations. I propose to invite you to form a new Government of National Recovery with immediate effect.’
Sir Ian replied with the expected humility.
‘I am honoured, Your Majesty, and accept unconditionally. However, I cannot run a government from this location. We do not have the facilities or resources to cope. I need a sustainable headquarters and am at a loss to know where to go. Perhaps, Brussels?’ he volunteered.
The Queen was well ahead of him.
‘I have been briefed on your predicament, Sir Ian, and you can expect to be rescued from Downing Street sometime today and will be transported, with your PPS, Mr Singh, to Sandringham for the immediate future. We have all of the facilities and communication equipment you may need. In addition, Sir Robert will be able to fully brief you with his assessment of the situation. You will also be able to converse with our Ambassadors worldwide and form your government from the scant resources available. It's a huge task, Sir Ian, but I am confident of your proven ability to lead us through this difficult time.’
‘I understand, Your Majesty, but I am concerned for the remainder of my staff here in Downing Street.’
‘Have no worries, they will be taken to Brussels later today. We shall speak at length in due course. Good morning…Prime Minister.’
Sixty minutes later a helicopter was hovering over the rooftops of 10 Downing Street and a team of rescuers began the task of extracting the new PM and flying him to Norfolk.
Day 23
Monday 6th January
RNeth AF Volkel – Gymnasium
The Ambassador stared hard at Andrew Brady, trying to assess his present character and potential usefulness.
‘Andrew, I will ask the Meteorologist on stage to answer this thorny question. Baroness Gault, perhaps you can help?’
Ms. Fletcher retook her seat whilst the meteorological expert from Bracknell took the microphone.
‘Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. The snow fell for almost three weeks and strong winds exacerbated the situation, causing huge drifting. To clarify, types of snow can be designated in three ways: specifically, by the shape of its flakes; a description of how it is falling and by how it collects on the ground. You will see examples on the screen above.
A blizzard or a snowstorm deliver heavy snowfalls over a large area; snow squalls give heavy snowfalls over narrow bands; while flurries are the cause of the lightest snowfall. Snow types which fall in the form of a ball, rather than a flake, are known as graupel - sleet and snow grains are types of graupel. Once on the ground, snow can be categorized as powdery when fluffy; granular when it begins the cycle of melting and refreezing; and crud or eventually ice once it packs down into a dense drift after multiple melting and refreezing cycles. When powdering, snow drifts with the wind, sometimes to the depth of several metres. After attaching to hillsides, blown snow can evolve into a snow slab, which is an avalanche hazard on steep slopes.
What the UK experienced - what you experienced - was definitely a blizzard of the highest magnitude.
What we have on the ground now is known as Powder, which is freshly fallen, un-compacted snow. To be frank, I can only really comment on what I have seen before – and we are consulting with Russian and Canadian experts regarding these quantities of lying snow. For example, the mid-morning sun melts the top of the frozen snow creating a soft layer, one to two centimeters deep, which is ideal for skiing. This is called spring snow. By mid-afternoon, the melted layer is likely to have become too deep for useful skiing or travel, i.e. too heavy or too slushy. On some slopes, the melt layer poses an extreme avalanche risk in the afternoon and, for example, ski area management will close such ski runs by late morning. Ideal spring snow conditions are found when the melt layer does not exceed two centimeters and the diurnal cycle of melting and refreezing creates a smooth frozen surface that does not become overly wet in the sun. So, it will be a few days before we can accurately assess whether practicable skiing or sustained travel is going to possible. We certainly wouldn't recommend landing a helicopter on the surface at present.
However, before I address melting times, I should point out that we have another potential enemy to cope with.
Fog. Radiation fog to be precise. This normally forms by the cooling of land after sunset by thermal radiation, in calm conditions with clear skies – which is what we can expect for the next week. The cool ground produces condensation in the nearby air by heat conduction. In perfect calm the fog layer can be less than a meter deep but turbulence can promote a thicker layer. Radiation fogs occur mainly at night, and usually do not last long after sunrise, though they can persist all day in the winter months, especially in areas bounded by high ground such as the Vale of York.’
Photographs of all of these occurrences appeared behind the Baroness as she spoke.
‘We are waiting to see if this phenomenon does indeed occur. It's not a game-breaker because no aircraft will be landing for the foreseeable future, but could make life very difficult for survivors on the ground.’
The audience was trying hard to take it all in.
‘I know that this is all a bit technical for the layman, and I apologise, but really there is no other way to explain it. Behind me now, you can see slides of examples of Radiation Fog.
Brady knew most of this, but was topping up his knowledge for further reference.
Now, coming to the question of how long the snow will take to melt away. Not even addressing the issues of flooding, I will try to take you through this minefield.
Snow will start to melt at thirty-two degrees Fahrenheit – freezing point. However, if the temperature keeps fluctuating around zero degrees C, as it will do at this time of year and in this type of weather system, then melting will be reduced. Clearly, if the sun shines consistently and the temperature stays at about ten degrees Celsius, then the snow will melt at about two to three inches per day. Using that extremely simplified formula, it would take thirty feet of snow about 120 days or four months to completely disperse.
However, I say again, this is January and we cannot expect consistently high temperatures until April at least – especially during the hours of darkness! Last night the ground temperature dropped to minus five degrees centigrade in the London area.
Now, alluding to my previous remark about flooding, it is probably a very good thing if the thaw takes a long, long time. Why? Because all of the melted snow has got to go somewhere. It will not all evaporate.’
The Baroness re-took her seat and Ann Fletcher nodded to the Army General, who rose and addressed the audience.
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��What will we find under the snow? A very pertinent and relevant question, as the answer to this is going to determine the feasibility of the UK ever recovering from this disaster.’
As he spoke, a new series of photographs appeared on the screen above his head.
‘You can see, ladies and gentlemen, from these pictures taken yesterday in the London and Brighton areas, that the devastation has been complete. Just about any building with a normal pitched roof, be it gable-ended, hipped, mansard or flat has collapsed under the weight of snow. Only modern steep Scandinavian style roofs will have fared better. This widespread collapse would have happened by about Day Seven of the storm, as British roofs are not designed for excessive amounts of snow.
As a consequence, snow would have cascaded into the particular property and caused further serious damage inside. Melted snow would have leaked into the remainder of the building (or certainly will do so), rendering it uninhabitable. The resultant damp and damage will be alien to human existence for the foreseeable future. You’ve all seen previous television pictures of the consequences of even minor flooding.’
He waited to allow the audience to study the slides.
‘We are not aware, for example, what has happened in high-rise properties. How many floors have been exposed to excessive pressure and been demolished? We just don’t know this yet, but I don’t hold out too much hope.
The best protected buildings have been churches with spires. The snow slid harmlessly to the ground. I say harmlessly – many church access points are now completely buried!
Most rivers, including the Thames and other major water courses are frozen. The sea is frozen out to a distance of at least one mile. I would suggest that this will be the first area to melt as wave action will precipitate a thaw.
Electricity pylons are in a state of complete disrepair. Most lines are down and many towers have toppled.
It can be assumed that almost all trees will have been damaged or felled, excepting perhaps the sturdiest firs and pines.
Most bridges will have survived under the snow – they are generally one of the strongest structures known to man.
The country’s main roads will be cluttered with vehicles of all kinds. All of which will probably be completely useless and fit only for the scrap heap. Many, I regret to say, are coffins.
One recognisable building that has survived is the Gherkin in London. Boris should be OK then!’
This flippant remark drew a scowl from Ms. Fletcher and not a titter from the survivors! She stood up sharply, glancing sourly at the General:
‘I’ll now handover to Dr Brown who will now talk about a very delicate issue - the consequences for human and animal life. This will be painful, so if anyone wants to leave at this juncture, please do so now.’
Nobody moved.
Dr Brown took centre stage and continued.
‘Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. What I am going to say is indeed, extremely upsetting. However, there is no getting away from the truth.
You are all going to have to face it sooner or later!’
Day 22
Sunday 5th January
Selby, Yorkshire
Josh and Josie Driver had made a good fist of the survival game.
The middle-aged couple, living in a large house, at the end of an isolated driveway on the outskirts of Selby had thought the problem through in great detail and had done everything possible, within their capabilities, to combat the weather and give them a fair chance of continued existence until rescue came – which they imagined it surely would.
However, they had underestimated the power and endurance of the storm.
During the first days they had secured themselves and the available resources in a downstairs reception room – the old dining room – and had made themselves very comfortable – if a little cramped. They had had enough water, heating and food to last at least a month, so this was not an issue, and for the first fortnight they endured the hardship.
Then their troubles multiplied.
Round about New Year, Day 18, there came a resounding crash from upstairs. It was a two-storey eighteenth century building with an extensive attic and consequently of stout, renovated construction. It was probably this factor which enabled the roof to last so long.
Josh and Josie sat stock still for several seconds and then both stood up sharply.
‘What the hell was that?’ shrieked Josie.
‘Probably the bloody roof!’ came back Josh. ‘We knew it was a possibility, Josie.’
They both decided to investigate immediately, although it was just after 11pm. So, they dressed for the outdoors in anoraks, hats, gloves and snow boots and tentatively opened the dining room door.
All seemed well in the corridor, although it was punishingly cold. They scouted the ground floor, inspecting each room with powerful torches, checking ceilings and windows. They discovered no damage so decided to venture upstairs.
With Josh leading they crept up the staircase, step by step, flashing their lights into every nook and cranny looking for signs of collapse or of snow ingress. By the time they reached the landing, it was clear that it was damage free. So, they proceeded to investigate every room, one by one. They started in an anti-clockwise manner and began with the bedroom immediately over the dining room downstairs – their precious living quarters.
With a huge sigh of relief they found no breach.
‘Thank God for that!’ sighed Josie.
Josh carefully closed and locked the door and continued to the bathroom and the other four bedrooms – all of which were still intact.
‘Right then!’ exclaimed Josh, ‘it must be the last one, and if I'm right we’d better be very careful. Josie, stand at the head of the stairs ready to scoot down if snow flows out. Tie this rope around my waist and be ready to pull me back if the worst happens.’
Unfortunately – or maybe not in the circumstances – the door opened inwards. It wouldn't budge.
‘Damn!’ cried out Josh. ‘There's something blocking the door. It must be snow or furniture or something.’
‘What are we going to do?’ exclaimed Josie.
‘Nothing, for now,’ replied Josh. ‘We’ll wait till morning while we have a think about our options and the best way to deal with this problem. It's late and we’re tired, so let's go back downstairs and discuss the way we approach this tomorrow.’
‘OK,’ answered Josie, ‘but let's check the room below this one again, just to check for ceiling damage. We don’t really want a double breach!’
‘There's not much that we can really do about it anyway,’ retorted Josh, ‘we don’t have the wherewithal to prevent another ceiling collapse. We’ll just have to hope for the best. We can move some furniture out and use it to barricade the dining room door, but there's precious little else to be done. Come on, old girl; let's get back to the warmth as soon as we can. It's damned cold up here!’
Day 23
Monday 6th January
RNeth AF Base Volkel – Gymnasium
Dr Brown allowed the audience to calm down following his previous blunt statement, silently imploring them to accept the cold facts of the circumstances in which they all found themselves.
‘It's not a pretty picture that I'm going to paint, but a reasonably accurate supposition, based on what we’ve seen from the air so far and based on first-hand accounts from survivors.
All animal life – barring the ever resilient cockroach – will probably be dead. Dogs, cats, pet and wild birds, small mammals, cattle, sheep, poultry, horses and zoo animals. Some water based creatures (those not in aquaria) will probably have survived under the ice and may well have swum away to find oxygen to breathe.
Animals in the open will have starved or frozen to death during the first week of the storm. Humans will not have been able to sustain them – mainly because they would have been fighting for their own survival. House pets may have lasted a bit longer, but soon as human support disappeared they would have eventually died.
(He neglected to mention ‘hungry’ pets and their dead owners out of deference to sensibilities.) Of course, some creatures in hibernation may be OK, but only time will tell.’
The doctor paused and drew breath, glancing back at the Ambassador, who nodded almost imperceptibly.
‘Now, to the subject of human life. We know that there were approximately sixty three million inhabitants of the UK and 4.5 million in Eire. Between five and six million of these are safe on mainland Europe and dispersed throughout the world.
Of the rest, we estimate – estimate, mind you – that up to 90% of the remainder lie frozen beneath the snow….that’s about fifty five million people – probably gone!’
Day 22
Sunday 5th January
Boston, Lincolnshire
‘Dad; everybody! It's stopped snowing and the sun is out!’
Mike Scaiffe’s eldest son was shouting along the corridor of the pub/restaurant near Boston in which the family were sheltering. Mike opened his eyes and checked the clock. 8am.
He slid out of bed, pulled on his dressing gown, stepped into his slippers and ran into the corridor.
‘What do you mean?’ he shouted.
‘It's stopped snowing, dad. Come upstairs and see for yourself if you don’t believe me!’
Mike nodded and headed up the stairs to the topmost bedroom – the one with the skylight, through which Brady and the doomed Jane Kelly came and went during their brief visit around Christmas Day.
His son had been on roof clearing duty; a daily task shared by the fitter men in the family to achieve two main life-saving aims. Firstly, to push accumulating snow down off the roof before it got too thick and heavy enough to threaten the structural integrity of the rafters, and then collapse the roof itself. Secondly, to keep drifting snow from blocking air vents over chimneys. It was an important source of fresh oxygen once the snow had reached the upper floors, blocking the windows.
‘Bloody Hell!’ Mike exclaimed, ‘It has stopped!’
He turned and embraced his son, hugging him tightly.
Snow! The Series [Books 1-4] Page 47