by Andrew Watts
Henry said, “Sweet. So just to be clear, total worst scenario imaginable. That’s all you need to say. Total worst scenario imaginable. Awesome.”
“There goes the US military’s communications and navigation advantage.”
“Christ...” said the military officer in the front row. “But wouldn’t people find out? I mean, who monitors this stuff?”
Brooke said, “Of course we’d find out. There are lots of agencies that monitor it. NORAD. The NSA. Langley. The National Reconnaissance Office in Chantilly, Virginia. The point is, we wouldn’t be able to do anything about it.”
Natesh said, “But China would probably wait until the right time to do this. What do you military guys call it? When you make sure you hit the enemy with everything you have at the same time?”
Major Combs said, “Simultaneous time on top.”
David began to feel dizzy as he saw where all of this was leading.
Natesh asked, “What would the damage be? What would it look like if China took out all of our satellites?”
Henry said, “It would put a strain on us at first, but the underwater and land-based fiber optic cables handle the vast majority of our data transfers. You might notice it on some international phone calls. Obviously satellite TV and satellite phones would be down. Eventually, though, it would get worse…”
“What about the loss of GPS? What would that do?” Natesh asked.
Bill said, “That would hurt a lot. There is just such a dependence on GPS today. Between that and the loss of weather satellites over the oceans, I wouldn’t be surprised to see global air traffic grind to a halt on day one. Ships and aircraft would have to navigate the old fashioned way, and that means slower and burning more fuel. Say goodbye to drones too. The US Air Force minted more drone pilots this year than regular pilots. If they were to take out satellites, we wouldn’t be able to use drones nearly as well. Probably not at all over long-range.”
Brooke said, “I think that would have a much bigger impact on the military’s ability to fight war than most people realize. Almost all of our weapons and weapons-delivery platforms rely on GPS navigation to precisely track and hit their targets. If you took out the entire global satellite network, that would be a huge technological equalizer.”
Henry said, “I get the military thing. But there is a bigger picture impact here. All those GPS satellites help us synchronize our global clocks. Timing between everything from traffic lights to water treatment to railroad schedules would start getting clogged up. Web searches would be affected and the Internet could drastically slow down. Think about the financial markets. All of those hyper-traders moving shares in the blink of an eye? Now people around the world aren’t on the same clock anymore. The information isn’t getting spread around evenly. In this day in age, that’s a HUGE deal. Now, how many of you are on your mobile phones all day long? If they hit the data farms, those phones are going to be much less useful. If the Chinese can really do this, that weapon is designed to start the apocalypse. If someone crashed all of our satellites and cloud storage, there would be a complete network collapse. There would be a huge stock market crash, followed by a huge food shortage, followed by rampant riots in the street and a total breakdown in society. I swear to god, I am not exaggerating here. How many of you have kids? What would you do for the last loaf of bread if your kid was starving and you didn’t think there was another bread truck coming? Take this weapon seriously. And consider stocking up on bread, water, and Seinfeld DVD’s.”
Well, that worked. David thought Henry summed that up pretty nicely. Nods of agreement from around the room. Looks of terror. Nice.
Bill said, “But hold on here. First, that still doesn’t solve the nuclear deterrence factor.”
“It will make the navigation for the missiles much less accurate,” said one of the Air Force officers.
David said, “Actually...to be honest, especially if they disrupted communication enough, I just don’t think we would go through with it.”
“Go through with what?”
David said, “Sorry. I mean, I just don’t think that we would really retaliate with nukes. Think about it. If they shut down all of our satellites like that, our government decision makers would be deaf, dumb, and blind. If they started a military attack and let’s say they jammed long-range radio communication...I’m not saying that we wouldn’t nuke China if we had a clear picture of what was going on, but it takes a very long time for the U.S. government to gather enough political support to attack a foreign country when we do have clear evidence. If all of a sudden, we just didn’t have any communications with our armed forces. If no one had electricity or phone lines. Do you see our politicians having the confidence in the information they were getting to launch a World War Three-style nuclear retaliation on China? I mean, until 24 hours ago, I would have told you that you were crazy to suggest any of this. I would have said, ‘Hell no, China won’t attack us.’ Think of all the trade they’d be giving up. It would be economic suicide. No one would believe it. Our technology has enabled hyper-war. But the decision making process hasn’t gotten any faster. And this isn’t 1983. Our leaders haven’t been conditioned to expect a nuclear war the way they were back in the eighties. If an attack happened then, we all knew who it was. The Soviets. The Evil Empire. But China isn’t really seen as an enemy today. Their cyber war against us is mostly covert. Their military buildup is second-page news. People get cheap iPhones and low prices at Walmart, and trade with China is at an all-time high. I just don’t see a nuclear response as viable if the picture isn’t clear.”
No one said anything for a moment. People absorbed David’s thoughts. Some were no doubt struggling with the question of whether nuclear deterrence was good or bad.
Brooke cleared her throat and said, “Well, this turned out to be scary. But I still have a question about the premise of this war plan. Let’s suppose that our politicians have neither the information nor the balls to launch a nuclear response back at an attacking superpower. I will try not to insert my hatred of all liberal politics here. Now, I am more disturbed by the threat of a cyber attack on our satellites than anyone. I mean, I rely on these things every day to do my job in Ft. Meade. But I fail to see why we still have reason to believe that this is a real threat. Why is a cyber-attack on these satellites a game-changer? Can one of you Air Force guys please help me out here? Aren’t there already missiles that can shoot down satellites? Henry, couldn’t they just blow up data centers? Why is this ARES such a big deal? What is new about this weapon compared to what they could have already done?”
David said, “Well they can now control more satellites in a shorter time.”
Brooke shook her head and said, “No. That’s not enough of a leap for me. My point is, they could have done the same things through different means. What am I missing here?”
Most of the classroom looked at Lena but she didn’t say anything back. Instead, the answer came from Henry.
He said to Lena, “Ohhhh. I see what’s going on here.”
Everyone stared, waiting for him to continue.
Henry said, “There is a countdown. Isn’t there?”
Eyes shot back to Lena. She nodded.
David then said. “That was it, wasn’t it? That’s how you knew that they are really going to attack. That’s what this new intelligence was that your dead agent uncovered.”
“Part of it. Yes.” she said.
Some of them put it together and some didn’t. Someone whistled. A few swore. Up until now, David still had a skepticism built up inside of him. He hadn’t truly believed that China was going to attack the United States. Sure, there may have been intelligence that they were thinking about it. But in David’s heart, he believed that somehow this was all going to go away. Cooler heads would prevail. The Red Cell would just become some crazy what-if scenario planning session. David had harbored these thoughts since Tom had first told him about the project. But the evidence was now falling into place. The reasons
for secrecy. The signs of war. Suddenly this all became very real.
He gazed outside, thinking about the implications of a war of this scale. He could see tropical thunderheads on the horizon, each with a white mist streaming down to the distant ocean. Storms approaching. Fitting.
Someone said, “What’s the countdown matter for?”
David sighed and said. “It means that they’re going to follow through. The satellite-killer is a first-strike weapon. And the countdown means they’ve already pulled the trigger. It’s true that they probably have missiles that could do this. They’ve had them for years, actually. But if there is a countdown, then that means that they have a plan in motion. And everything that we’re doing here matters a whole lot more.”
“Well, when does the countdown stop?” Henry asked.
Everyone in the room locked their eyes on Lena. She looked as if she wasn’t sure whether she should answer.
Finally, she said, “To be honest, we don’t know.”
*****
David woke up to the green-glowing beep of his watch alarm. He had collapsed on his bed at 5:30 p.m., intending on just to shut his eyes for thirty minutes. But the fatigue of his jet lag and the all-day sessions had drained him. While just about everyone else had filed into the cafeteria as soon as the afternoon team meetings ended, David took a nap. It was now 7:15 p.m. and David would have to hightail it to make it to dinner before they closed.
He threw on a tee shirt, khaki shorts, and a pair of reebok sneakers, and then rushed over to the cafeteria. He walked into the meal hall to the clatter of metal dishware being cleaned in the back. Bill was the lone diner. David walked through the buffet line, scooping heaping piles of mashed potatoes, green beans, and what looked like a pot roast onto his plate. He grabbed a few bottles of water and a banana and walked over to the table where the other man sat.
“Mind if I join you?” David asked.
“Sure, sure.” Bill was in mid chew. He took a gulp from his cup and said, “Helluva day, huh?”
Bill ran his hair through his thick, fluorescent white hair. He dressed in a collared shirt that was tucked in to a pair of light blue jeans. Black sneakers completed the outfit. David thought that he looked like he could have been a grandpa.
“Where are you from again, Bill?” David asked.
“West Texas. But I’ve lived in Nevada for the past few years. And honestly, before that I was Air Force so I’ve lived all over. Yourself?”
“Virginia. Right outside D.C. I’m a Navy BRAT myself.”
“I’ve been there. Nice area. Lousy traffic.”
David nodded as he finished a bite of the overcooked roast. “Yup.”
A few moments passed. Small talk didn’t seem to be either man’s forte.
Finally Bill spoke, “This all just makes you re-evaluate your life, you know?”
David spoke through chews. “Yeah. The end of the world will do that.”
“I’m not saying I regret anything. My wife always says to our kids that regrets ain’t worth fussing over. Because there’s better things ahead than behind.”
“Sounds like a smart lady. Wonder how she ended up with you?”
“Hah. Yeah.” Bill looked sad at her mention.
David said, “I hope my family is alright. My dad, sister, and brother are all active duty Navy. I would imagine their jobs just got a lot more dangerous.”
Bill raised his eyebrows and took a drink. “I’m sure they’ll be okay. With any luck, we’ll come out of this all right. I remember the Bay of Pigs when I was a little kid. It seemed like the world was about to end then, too. We used to practice getting under our desks at school in case the Russians nuked us. Imagine that. And that all blew over. Hopefully this will too.” While his words were meant to comfort, he didn’t sound like he believed them.
“My mother passed a year ago. Heart failure.” David didn’t know why he said it. It just came out.
“I’m so sorry,” said Bill.
“Thanks. It hit us pretty hard. So after my mother died, my father, sister, and brother were all home together for a short while. It was the first time I’d seen Chase in two years. Crazy. He was always deploying with the SEALS.”
“He was a SEAL? Impressive.”
“Oh yes. Everyone’s always impressed with Chase. So he came home, took a month off from his work, and we got to hang out a bunch. Now, I’ve never been the athlete that my brother or sister were. But the day after Chase flew in for the funeral, he asked me to go on a run with him. He goes on these super-long runs. We drove down to D.C. and ran around the Theodore Roosevelt Island and finished on the Washington & Old Dominion Trail. Very scenic. Very long run. I hadn’t run more than two miles since I graduated Annapolis. My mother used to love taking long walks around that area. She always said that her kids got her athletic genes. Heart disease. Unbelievable. It’s a cruel, ironic world if you ask me. Anyway, my brother insists that I go with him on this run. We go for five miles around that lake and I swear that something changed inside me. It was therapeutic. It sounds funny, but that run was like a way to say goodbye to my mother. Maybe she was with us? Well, I’ve been running almost every day since. I actually did my first triathlon two months ago and I’m training for another. I got a taste of a runner’s high that day and I keep going back for more.”
“That’s sounds like a healthy hobby. What’s the problem?”
“You talked about all this China stuff making you re-evaluate your life. My mom’s death did it for me. Part of my conclusion was that I needed to reconnect with my family more. I missed my brother and sister. I have been doing pretty well keeping up with them through email more. I have even flown down to Jacksonville to hang out with my sister. My dad is almost impossible to get time with. He might as well be the President the way the Navy treats him. Still, with all of this talk of war, I’m just worried. I don’t want to lose any of them…” David’s voice trailed off.
Bill put his hand on his shoulder and looked him in the eye. “David, better things are coming. I’ll pray for it. You mark it down, and I’ll pray for it.”
The entrance door opened and Natesh walked in. He waved at the two men and received polite acknowledgments in return. A moment later he plopped down like a sandbag across the table.
“You look pretty beat young man.” said Bill.
Natesh raised his eyebrows and said, “My friend...you cannot imagine. I’m exhausted. This project is quite intense.” He drank his plastic cup of ice water until the cubes slid down to his mouth. He bit an ice cube and began crunching it in his teeth.
Bill asked, “What did you all think of the last part of the meeting today?”
Natesh said, “You mean Lena’s revelation? It was compelling. What did you think?”
David said, “I was pretty shocked. I work on classified technology for a living. I’ve seen a lot of real cutting-edge stuff. If they have ARES, that’s bad news.”
“It sure is.” Bill agreed. “There’s that silver bullet we were talking about all day.”
David nodded. “Imagine our ships, our troops in combat, and our aircraft without any navigation or smart weapons. A great deal of our communication...arguably the most important parts, would be wiped out. We would be back to Vietnam era technology. And the thing is, our military is pretty reliant on the tech that we have. I mean, when was the last time you wrote a letter? Has your cursive handwriting gotten any worse since you were in grade school? No need to practice with email, right? The same will go for war fighting. No need to practice using a compass all the time if you have got GPS. And if the other guys are practicing, advantage them.”
Natesh said, “Or worse, if the Chinese retain their technology. I believe they just launched their own GPS system. I’m sure it would be quite possible to crash our satellites and leave theirs intact.”
David looked at each of them. That little voice in his head was talking to him again. Something just didn’t sit right about all of this. Natesh and Bill both seemed like
good trustworthy men. He wanted to ask them if they believed everything that they had heard over the past 24 hours. Instead, he just kept silent.
Natesh said, “Lena and the Major will be taking us through some more of the Chinese military capabilities and limitations this evening. We should probably leave in another few minutes.”
“Sure thing. Don’t want to be late for the CIA lady.” said David.
Bill said, “So…Lena said we could go to her if we had any issues right?”
Natesh said, “Yes, that’s what she said. She said she can get us anything that we need while we are here.”
Bill’s voice sounded pained like he was trying to figure out what to do. “That’s my issue. Look, I just don’t know if I can afford to be here.”
David was pretty sure that he was referring to his wife’s illness.
Natesh said, “I’m...I’m not really sure what to say. I know this is probably obvious the way you’re feeling. But, I assume you’re worried about your wife?”
Bill let out a deep sigh. “Yep. I realize this is important. But I got a lot of important things on my plate right about now. Before the world goes to hell, I would rather spend that time with my wife. No offenses to you fine gentlemen.”
David ate the last bite of his green beans and wiped his mouth with a napkin. He thought about the position Bill was in and where they were in the world. The guy needed to get off this island.
Natesh said, “Why don’t you go talk to Lena tonight after our end of day meeting is over? Let her know what you’re thinking so she can hear you out. She seems like a reasonable woman. I wouldn’t be surprised if she won’t let you just fly back home. Perhaps you can just sign a paper. We’re volunteers, right?”