Operation Manna (Timeline 10/27/62 - Australia)

Home > Other > Operation Manna (Timeline 10/27/62 - Australia) > Page 23
Operation Manna (Timeline 10/27/62 - Australia) Page 23

by James Philip


  15. Therefore, until such time as the Government declares otherwise its position remains that contrary to the US stance that the Exchequer owes debts to American Federal and private institutions our policy should be based on the premise that it is the United States which is actually in our debt.

  16. The Prime Minister regards the ongoing transfer of ships from the US Navy Reserve Fleet to the Royal Navy and the repatriation of vessels ‘restrained’ in US and US client ports to British merchant service, and the limited aid packages previously promised but only now starting to be regularly delivered as the beginning, not the end of the repayment of the debt of honour owed to the United Kingdom by the United States for its conduct of the Cuban Missiles War, and its hostile actions against British and Commonwealth forces and interests in the period between that war and July 1964.

  Appendix 3|Casualties, Population and Demographics

  Extracts from the Third Interim Report of the Cabinet Committee into the Cuban Missiles War and the mid- and long-term implications for policy of that conflict presented to Her Majesty’s Government on Friday 25th February 1966, and reproduced herein by the kind permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office.[134]

  ________

  Casualties, Population and Demographics

  It is now clear that initial casualty estimates underestimated the death toll from the Soviet attack and its aftermath. At this time there is no reliable evidence to substantiate a belief that the population of England (as opposed to that of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) has, or is likely to stabilize[135] in the foreseeable future since demographic impacts will take many years to self-correct.

  Background Information and Context

  In attempting to describe the magnitude of the casualty rate and subsequent de-population effects it was deemed useful to make comparisons with historic population statistics. Since Scotland and Northern Ireland suffered no confirmed direct civilian or military casualties (other than a handful of persons who may have been killed or injured at sea in coastal waters or by distant, offshore strikes) the figures in this section refer only to England and Wales.

  1. The earliest ‘reliable’ record of the population of England and Wales dates to 1086, when the collection of information for The Domesday Book suggests a figure of 1.7 millions. By 1348 this figure had risen to the Medieval peak of perhaps, some 4.8 millions. The population was then struck by the Black Death and had declined to 2.6 million by 1351, and significantly, did not again attain a sustainable level above the 1348 maximum until some three hundred years later in the middle of the seventeenth century.

  2. By 1801 (the date of the first modern Census) the population stood at 7.7 millions, rising to 15.2 in 1851 and 30.1 in 1901. Population growth slowed towards the end of the nineteenth century but despite the death toll of the First World War and that attributable to the ‘Spanish Influenza’ of 1919-1920, the population grew by 7.9 million between 1901 and 1941.

  3. The medium term effect of the Second World War on population growth was less significant in terms of adult deaths than the 1914-18 conflict but resulted in a much lower birth rate than previously during the actual period of hostilities. Unlike in the First World War this did not result in a 1915 or 1918 diminution in that year’s life expectancy prediction (respectively by 2.8 and 6.8 years – figures which were subsequently quickly corrected to long-term trend expectations by underlying demographic factors).

  4. In general even the short-term (less than 5 years) effects of both the First and Second World Wars were minimal in the context of the gradual rise in the population of England and Wales in the first half of the twentieth century.

  5. Moreover, although there is a small statistical correlation between the increased death rates during the years of fighting in the two World Wars of the first half of the twentieth century, the median age at time of death in the population as a whole rose from 53.8 years to 71.5 years between 1901 and 1961 (actually rising during the course of both World Wars).

  6. Comparative fatal casualties sustained by the armed forces of the United Kingdom (and its then Colonies) in the First and Second World wars were respectively 0.75 and 0.39 millions. Civilian deaths caused by enemy action in the United Kingdom in World War I were in the hundreds, and in World War Two as many as 70,000.

  7. One final background statistical subset is considered relevant to an understanding of the disaster represented by the casualties suffered by the United Kingdom as a result of the Cuban Missiles War.

  8. In the decade 1951 to 1961 the average annual death rate for the whole United Kingdom was 593,000 set against an average annual birth rate of 839,000, inferring that irrespective of immigration or emigration factors in any given year during this period that the underlying population grew by an average of some 246,000 people per year.

  Updated Casualty Information

  This Committee is advised that in the fullness of time that there will be merit in attempting to draw up comprehensive council, district and parish death lists in areas on the margins of the most heavily bombed regions but at this time this is not practical, and in any event, the task is potentially of such a magnitude as to divert staff and resources away from the other urgent business before it.

  1. The Committee submits the following casualty summary in the following format.

  2. By location (areas directly targeted by nuclear weapons).

  3. Resulting ‘immediate’ deaths (defined as those persons killed instantly or who died of their injuries within 48 hours of the attack).

  4. Resulting ‘later’ deaths (defined as being those deaths directly attributable to injuries or radiation exposure during the attack) and including those defined as having died who would otherwise still be have been alive today but for the attack: persons in this category will have died from a variety of causes including disease, poor hygiene or insanitary living conditions, hunger, the non-availability of common medications, the dislocation of medical service and due to the lack of adequate shelter on or before 31st January 1963).

  5. No attempt has been made by this Committee to report on the observable wide-spread decline in health of the general population, or its possible long-term implications.

  6. It is recognised by the Committee that the reconstituted Government Statistical Service (GSS) regards the figures herein as a likely significant under-estimate in several respects (excluding the figures for Greater London and its immediate surrounding environs which it views as being broadly representative)[136].

  7. The Committee notes that the GSS reservations mainly focus on the ‘Later deaths’ classification which it believes may be understated by a factor of at least 2 (two). If the GSS is correct in this view then the total mortality attributable to the Cuban Missiles War in the period 27th October 1962 to 31st January 1963 is understated in the following table by at least 1.3 to 2.6 million, inferring that the total death toll exceeds 15 million persons for this period, and may be as high as 17 million.

  8. Given that the population of England and Wales at the time of the 1961 Census was 41,159,213 persons the ‘Regional Mortality Table’ (below) tells us that between 33% and 41% of that population may have died as a direct result of the Cuban Missiles War.

  9. Regional Mortality Table – 27th October 1962 to 31st December 1963 produced below[137] (all figures are in thousands):

  Region/City/Town

  Immediate Deaths

  Later Deaths

  Related Deaths

  Greater London

  7500

  1000

  8500

  Chatham (Medway)

  150

  70

  220

  Canterbury

  75

  70

  145

  Thanet

  100

  40

  140

  Southend

  125

  60

  185

  Gravesend

  75

  45

  120

&nb
sp; York

  80

  80

  160

  Leeds

  90

  80

  170

  East Anglia

  135

  115

  250

  Lincoln

  125

  65

  190

  Hull

  185

  75

  260

  Runcorn

  25

  25

  50

  Liverpool

  500

  210

  710

  Morecombe Bay

  20

  70

  60

  Sub-total (000s)

  9185

  2015

  11200

  Western England

  0

  175

  175

  East Midlands

  0

  490

  490

  West Midlands

  0

  445

  445

  Yorkshire (South Riding)

  0

  125

  125

  Southern England

  0

  350

  350

  Home Counties

  0

  245

  245

  North East

  0

  225

  225

  Wales

  0

  250

  250

  North West

  0

  115

  115

  South East

  0

  180

  180

  Sub-total (000s)

  2600

  2600

  Totals (000s)

  9185

  4615

  13800

  Population Estimates and Projections

  1. The current population of England and Wales is estimated to be 26.2 to 26.9 millions[138].

  2. The revised estimated annual death rate as per figures available up to and including 31st December 1964 (for 1965) is 1.3 million in comparison to the 1951-61 mean of 0.593 million.

  3. The death rate peaked at a monthly average of as many as three hundred thousand per month in January 1963 and has been slowly moving back towards normal peacetime long-term trends ever since. However, at present rates of ‘improvement’ it is unlikely to conform to pre-war ‘normal’ statistical trend expectations until 1968 or 1969 at the earliest.

  4. One of the main factors in the reducing death rate is that mortality was so pronounced throughout 1963 in the young and the old. The general population has now been ‘winnowed’ of many of its most vulnerable members (see ‘Demographic Factors’ for more information about the long-term implications of this).

  5. The estimated live birth rate (children surviving to age of three months) is presently in the range 0.38 to 0.41 million.[139]

  6. The inferred population decline from the above figures is that the general population is declining by approximately one million per year. However, it is understood that this decline was partially mitigated by the arrival of as many as 250,000 refugees from continental Europe in the year ending 31st December 1964, and may be substantially mitigated in the 1965 figures (when they become available) by the very large influx of refugees from continental Europe known to have arrived in England from France during the course of that year.[140]

  7.The GSS has projected continuing population decline at least until the end of this decade. At this time the Committee has no insight if, or when, the population of England and Wales may again approach its pre-war levels.

  Demographic Factors

  1. After the monstrous death toll of the war the nation will almost certainly be faced by a pernicious mid- to long-term demographic obstacle to recovery and reconstruction unless urgent action is taken at the earliest practical juncture.

  2. Specifically, because mortality during and after the night of the attack seems to have predated most severely on the old and the young, from about 1967 or 1968 onwards the number of women of child bearing age will, as a proportion of the adult population fall to historically unprecedented low levels.

  3. This ‘demographic fertility deficit’ as experts in the field term it, will halt and inhibit any recovery towards pre-war population levels over a period of at least one, or perhaps, two decades.[141]

  4.The Committee therefore recommends that the Government should urgently introduce measures to persuade women of child-bearing age (and young men) to migrate to the United Kingdom, ideally, from the Commonwealth or it that fails, from other friendly areas of the World irrespective of race, creed or in extremis, colour.[142]

  5.The same demographic ‘deficit’ also indicates that prudent planning policy should also embrace the recruitment overseas of skilled, and unskilled workers to fill the gaps which will quickly appear in British industry as soon as it begins to fully recover.

  Author’s Endnote

  Thank you again for reading Timeline 10/27/62 – Australia - Book 2: Operation Manna. I hope you enjoyed it - or if not, sorry - but either way, thank you for reading and helping to keep the printed word alive. Remember, civilisation depends on people like you.

  Operation Manna seeks to fill in a gap in the chronology of Timeline 10/27/62 verse.

  Please remember that nothing that happens after 27th October 1962 in this book did not happen (I made it up!). Lots of real people are named, referenced and their actions form the substantial part of Operation Manna; I have no way of knowing if they would have acted or spoken as they do in the pages of this book. Such is the conundrum of writing alternative history; I have written one answer to ‘what might have happened?’ Others – or you - might imagine different outcomes, and they, and you have every right to. This however, is the Timeline 10/27/62 version!

  ________

  The Timeline 10/27/62 Main Series continues apace in 2018 with three new instalments:

  Book 11: 1966 & All That

  Book 12: Only In America

  Book 13: Warsaw Concerto

  And a standalone novel:

  Football in the Ruins – the World Cup of 1966

  Other Books by James Philip

  Other Series and Novels

  The Guy Winter Mysteries

  Prologue: Winter’s Pearl

  Book 1: Winter’s War

  Book 2: Winter’s Revenge

  Book 3: Winter’s Exile

  Book 4: Winter’s Return

  Book 5: Winter’s Spy

  Book 6: Winter’s Nemesis

  The Bomber War Series

  Book 1: Until the Night

  Book 2: The Painter

  Book 3: The Cloud Walkers

  Until the Night Series

  Part 1: Main Force Country – September 1943

  Part 2: The Road to Berlin – October 1943

  Part 3: The Big City – November 1943

  Part 4: When Winter Comes – December 1943

  Part 5: After Midnight – January 1944

  The Harry Waters Series

  Book 1: Islands of No Return

  Book 2: Heroes

  Book 3: Brothers in Arms

  The Frankie Ransom Series

  Book 1: A Ransom for Two Roses

  Book 2: The Plains of Waterloo

  Book 3: The Nantucket Sleighride

  The Strangers Bureau Series

  Book 1: Interlopers

  Book 2: Pictures of Lily

  Audio Books of the following Titles

  are available (or are in production) now

  Aftermath

  After Midnight

  A Ransom for Two Roses

  Brothers in Arms

  California Dreaming

  Heroes

  Islands of No Return

  Love is Strange

  Main Force Country

  Operation Anadyr

  The Big City

  The Cloud Walkers

  The Nantucket Sleighride


  The Painter

  The Pillars of Hercules

  The Plains of Waterloo

  The Road to Berlin

  Until the Night

  When Winter Comes

  Winter’s Exile

  Winter’s Nemesis

  Winter’s Pearl

  Winter’s Return

  Winter’s Revenge

  Winter’s Spy

  Winter’s War

  Non-Fiction Cricket Books

  FS Jackson

  Lord Hawke

  Cricket Books edited by James Philip

  The James D. Coldham Series

  [Edited by James Philip]

  Books

  Northamptonshire Cricket: A History [1741-1958]

 

‹ Prev