“The EEM team was drawn from the faculties of the Wharton School, the Sloan School, Moscow State, Oxford, Zhejiang, and Wuhan universities. They are among the world’s leading econometrics experts. What their work shows may be summarized in these few charts, although the extensive detail is being made available online now.”
Suddenly, the large flat screen facing Bowman’s seating area came to life. The large font words on the screen insisted on their being read. “Global Flooding Creates Economic Collapse.”
Victoria Kinder continued reading her statement. “The resources that will likely be used on massive seawall projects and those needed to handle relocation of refugees will cause spending to slowly dry up in other areas such as those shown on the slide. In the United States, for example, countering sea level rise by walling off cities and relocating populations will cost more on an annual basis for decades than the total cost of all governmental activities does now, including state and local administration. The need for this expenditure will come as the tax base is shrinking rapidly. Already preliminary work is underway on new seawalls for New York, London, Petersburg, and Tokyo. The costs are enormous.”
The next slide was titled LIKELY DEFUNDED PROGRAMS and it listed: “Space Programs, Biomedical Research, Information Technology and Robotics, Defense Research and Major Weapons Systems Procurement, Arts and Humanities, Social Welfare Programs.”
“While our model does show some short-term winners, such as the construction industry and related activities, even these cease as financial markets and the tax base take major impacts and eventually collapse in some countries and globally.”
The screen now showed three curves, covering the period 2015–2100. All went down, but the one that went down fastest showed signs of upward movement at the end. “We ran six hundred and twenty-three scenarios and excursions, but the results in terms of global GDP clustered around three curves depending upon the rate of the flooding. The fastest and highest flooding models used the IPCC’s new Worst Case Scenario. They show global economic depression by 2050. The other two show economic collapse in 2072 and 2086.”
There was a gasp in the hall, followed by murmuring as the audience reacted and spoke to those sitting with them. Almost everyone had a mobile device out and was sending off messages, texts, or tweets.
“Of note is that the Fast Case, collapse by 2050, begins to show some signs of recovery by 2075, although the growth is modest and does not end the depression in this century. The other two models show no significant recovery within the timeframe examined.
“The reason for the recovery in the Fast Case we believe is that the diversion of resources occurs over a shorter period of time prior to collapse. In this slide you see the diversion of resources in all three scenarios. In the other two scenarios, the diversion goes on over many decades, growing over time as the water levels rise. In the Fast Case, sea level rise happens so quickly that there is not the slow destruction of industries and institutions as funds dry up.”
The chairman of the panel interrupted with a question, in French. Throughout the hall people searched for their translation headsets and began switching the dials next to their seats, through Russian, Chinese, Spanish, to French. Bowman understood enough French that he left his headset alone. “Are you telling us that there is a silver lining to our Worst Case Scenario, that it means the global economic depression you predict will only last three decades? The Great Depression of the 1930s lasted less than one decade, correct?”
Victoria Kinder did not skip a beat. Indeed, she responded immediately and in French. “Yes, Mr. Chairman, you are correct on both counts. One reason is that the Fast Case causes a significant lowering of global population due to flood casualties and a subsequent general reduction in the birth rate, of the type that occurs in recessions and in a depression. Normally a population decline hurts the economy, but in this case it will reduce the burden on government services, allowing some money eventually to be spent on things other than disaster recovery.”
As the discussion went on, Bowman was planning his approach to Professor Kinder when the meeting was over. She did not look as he thought an economist should. Tall and well tailored, she appeared more like the chairman of the board of a major corporation or perhaps an executive editor of a fashion magazine. Confronting her was going to be interesting.
He read her biography on the New York University Web site: full professor of Economics at age thirty-eight, specialist in econometric modeling. Her doctorate was from MIT, her undergraduate degree from Penn. Another entry on Google noted that since her appointment, Kinder Industries had endowed five chairs at NYU and built a new building for the business school. No one, however, had suggested that the Kinder money had bought Victoria her appointment. The general impression was that she had earned it and it was Victoria herself who had obtained the grants from her father to help out her new academic home.
Then, a text message from Mbali interrupted his planning.
MUST MEET NOW. MOST URGENT. She had been intending on using the secure telephone at the South African Mission to call her boss, the President of South Africa. Bowman wondered what he could have said on that call that made a meeting now most urgent.
Reluctantly, he texted back. IN TEN MINUTES AT USUN.
Bowman stood and moved to the exit while the professor was continuing to answer questions from the panel. As he made his way through the vast lobby of the UN building, his iPhone vibrated again. He stopped as he moved out on to First Avenue and looked down to what he supposed was a follow-up message from Mbali. Instead, he found one from Dugout. HOW FAST CAN YOU GET TO A SECURE FACILITY FOR A VIDEOCONFERENCE?
He texted back, FIVE MINUTES. GOING TO USUN and then he ran across the avenue before the traffic light changed.
USUN was the U.S. Mission to the United Nations, an ugly high-rise directly across the street from UN headquarters. It housed the State Department officers who represented the United States at the world body. It also had facilities for “Other Government Agencies.”
Using the pass Special Agent McKenna had given him, Bowman went to the twelfth floor and was directed to a secure conference room that had been set aside for his use.
Dugout was already up on screen. “I guess you were in the neighborhood. How was your flight to New York?”
“What’s so urgent?” Ray replied. “I thought you were wrapping things up there.”
“I was, but then one of the documents we were crunching on started to yield up some text. You won’t like it.”
Mbali entered the room, escorted by a security guard from the lobby. She was almost out of breath as she sat down next to Bowman, looking at the video screen. “Got here as fast as I could. I just got the intel dump from Marcus Stroh’s trip to Comoros and Mayotte.”
“How?” Ray asked.
“Long story for later,” she said. “Point is he got what we sent him there for. A mystery plane whose comings and goings into Comoros match up for when the bombs would have been moved there from Madagascar and then, two months later, when the tritium would have moved from Pretoria.”
“I didn’t find any record like that when I checked flights into Comoros,” Dugout interjected.
“Well, Marcus did. Did you just look at Moroni airport? He found these flights into another island in the Comoros, Anjouan. And there is more, the names of two ships that left Comoros a few days after the tritium heist, probably with the mated bombs.” She then read out the tail number of the aircraft, the dates of the flights, and the names of the ships, MV Rothera and MV Nunatak.
“Dug, are you still online out there? Can you check the aviation databases first for that aircraft?” Ray asked.
“Right. I haven’t given the computer center back yet. Let me run the aircraft. It’s a C-130J, new model, registered in Cyprus to Archimedes Airlift, a cargo firm. Now, checking on ownership of the firm, various front companies in offshore islands. Running link analysis with other front companies. Bingo.”
“Don’t
tell me, it’s owned by Polis Holdings,” Ray guessed.
“Correct and you get five hundred points and take the lead,” Dugout replied.
“Polis Holdings of Cyprus, which also owns Olympus Security of Mr. Rogozin,” Mbali added. “Now, how about the ships, Dugout?”
“Hang on a minute,” Dugout shot back, his voice rising. “This is all good and all that your guy found the flights I couldn’t find because you told me the wrong airport, but I have something you have to hear right now.”
Ray Bowman knew that when Dugout said something was more important, it always was and it was also usually something that was not good news. “Okay, Duggie, okay. What did you decrypt?”
“On One document where they used an encryption that was easier to break. It’s entitled something like U.S. Korea Itel and it lists dates for things. Still working on the things, but I got the dates. They begin with August ninth and have entries for the days you just gave for the C-130 flights. I think it’s the timetable for the operation.”
“Nice work,” Ray said. “Does it tell us anything else?”
“Yeah. The last entry on the timetable is for November eighteenth. This Thursday.”
“Three days from now,” Mbali whispered.
The three sat silently, looking at each other. Finally, Ray Bowman broke the quiet. “You said something about U.S., Korea, something? You think the Koreans are involved now?”
“Yeah, it’s an acronym like a header on all four pages. Here it is U-S-K-O-R-I-T-E-L.”
“That’s not an acronym, it’s a word. That means ‘accelerator,’” Mbali said.
Bowman looked at her. “It does? In what language? Zulu?”
“Russian,” she said. “I took two years of it at Oxford.”
“Of course, you did. Why wouldn’t you, woman of many talents?” Dugout said from California.
Bowman was quiet. Something was coming into view for him. “The ships, Duggie, the ships. Pull their ownership. Probably also a Polis Holdings front company.”
They could see Dugout hitting his keyboard. While they waited, Ray looked at Mbali. “Russian?”
“Seemed like a good idea at the time. They were against Apartheid from the beginning.”
Dugout was double-checking his results against a series of databases. “No, you would be wrong about Polis this time. Those two ships, or at least ships with the same names, are registered in Iceland to the IGRI, the Ice Cap and Glacier Research Institute, which it seems is an entity entirely paid for by the Purpose Fund. They’re polar research vessels. Must be the wrong names or there are other ships by those names that I can’t find. Maybe they just painted those names on some tramp freighters that are actually registered in Panama or Liberia in other names.”
Bowman closed his eyes. “No, it’s them. It’s the research ships. And I bet they were in the Comoros.”
“There aren’t any glaciers there,” Mbali noted.
Bowman stood up. “Purpose Fund is one of the clients of Olympus Security, remember, it’s listed on their Web site. And who is a big donor to Purpose, but Kinder Industries. And how did Rogozin fly into New York? On a Kinder Industries plane with none other than its CEO, Jonathan Kinder, and his brilliant daughter the econometrics professor, whose expertise is econometric modeling of climate change effects.”
“So you’re saying that Kinder is in on it? That the Kinders let their ships be used by Rogozin to collect nuclear weapons off the Comoros?” Dugout asked.
“No, I see where he’s going,” Mbali replied for Ray. “Ray you’re thinking that Rogozin’s Olympus Security is actually the muscle that Kinder is using to pull off this operation. That they’re in on it together or maybe Rogozin is actually a client of Kinder?”
“Or they’re in something bigger,” Ray thought out loud. “Duggie, who else are the big donors to Purpose? Who is on the board?”
Dugout accessed the Purpose Fund Web page and threw it up on the video screen. “Board of Directors: Jonathan Kinder, U.S., Chair. Konstantin Kuznetzov, Russia; Sir Clive Harcourt, UK; Sheikh Ibrahim bin Mohammad al Dursi, Qatar; and Zhang Wei, China.”
Bowman sketched a diagram on his notepad. “Dug, do a link analysis between Kuznetzov and Rogozin.”
“Those five guys are all billionaires, you know,” Mbali said while they waited.
“Good guess,” Dugout said as he threw the link chart up on the screen. “They were both in St. Petersburg, then Leningrad in the eighties. Both appear to have been in the KGB, probably together.”
“Right, and we all know who else was in the Leningrad KGB in the eighties,” Ray said looking down at Mbali. “I have a sinking feeling that I know what the accelerator is designed to speed up. Dug, can you see what investments those five guys from the Purpose Fund have made individually and collectively in the last, say, three years?”
“That will be difficult. I’m sure they hide some of their activity under fronts and brokers. Can I hack accounts?” Dugout asked.
“Do what you need to do, but do it fast.”
Mbali hit the MUTE button on the video link. “He just told you that this thing with the bombs probably happens on Thursday and you are asking him to figure out what investments these guys have made? Shouldn’t you be calling the White House?”
Bowman sat back down next to her. “I am about to, but I want to be sure about my theory before I get Winston Burrell running down the hall to the Oval Office.”
Mbali looked at him, a man about to jump out of his skin, filled with tension and anxiety, waiting to spring into action, waiting for confirmation. “So what is your theory, Raymond? What are they trying to accelerate?”
“Sea level rise.”
“Sweet Jesus, why on earth?” she asked. “What do they use the nukes on?”
“Probably Greenland. To get it over with quickly. To profit. To be in the best shape when it’s happened. They intend to use the massive heat of nuclear explosion to melt a glacier, causing a sudden surge of fresh water into the ocean. Before we could react, islands will disappear, cities will flood permanently, the weather patterns will completely alter.”
“No way. No way anyone would do that,” she asserted. “Thousands of people will die if there is a big sea level rise, especially if it’s fast.”
“No,” Bowman said. “Millions will die. And millions more will wish they had.”
44
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 15
ABOARD THE MV NUNATAK
OFF ROSS ISLAND, ANTARCTICA
“We are essentially a light- to medium-sized ice breaker, research station, and heliport. Only one of two in the world that aren’t owned by a government,” Captain Andrey Sobko explained to his American guest. “And the other one is our sister ship, the Rothera.”
“Well. It’s great to see the work that the Purpose Fund is doing down here, tracking the glacial melt is extraordinarily important,” Glenn Rollins said. He was a geologist from the University of Colorado, working at McMurdo Station on a National Science Foundation grant. “And the work you are doing with the drilling stations, getting down to the bottom of the ice and seeing what the surface is like after five hundred centuries of being covered up.”
“Well, the European Union began the drilling work down here, but we have taken it much further with five drill sites now operating,” Sobko said in fluent English. “Now that spring has arrived and things are warming up down here, we are bringing in new equipment to each of the five sites. The helo you flew in on will be leaving shortly for the Wilkes Basin glacier.”
The American looked puzzled. “Really? But the Wilkes glacier is not deep. It doesn’t need deep drilling.”
“You are right. What we are doing there is examining the subglacial ponding effects. When the ice melts in the summer and runs down through the troughs, it creates ponds below the glacier. If they get big enough and touch, creating lakes, there is the possibility that the glacier will float off into the sea faster,” Sobko said.
“Don’t I know it. There�
��s only about eighty millimeters of ice creating a wall, a plug, holding back the Wilkes Basin glacier. If that were to melt, we think you’d get three to four meters of sea rise in a few years,” Rollins replied. “That’s why I’m here. I’m looking at the entire East Antarctica glacier. My calculation is that the East Antarctic glaciers alone hold enough water to create eighteen to twenty meters of sea rise. Thank god that could only happen over a couple of centuries, long after I’m gone. And my kids.”
“Yes, but we have to worry about what will happen after even our children. Imagine what a terrible place it will be for our grandchildren if we do not plan now for the world changing,” Captain Sobko replied. “I hope you enjoyed your day and your sleepover with us. Our scientists enjoyed having you visit, I know.”
“It was a great experience. I am so jealous of the equipment you have. How long will you be down here this time?”
“We leave today for New Zealand. Between us and the Rothera, we have flown in all the new equipments to the five Purpose Fund drill sites in East Antarctica. We will come back at the end of the summer to swap out crews and the like,” Sobko explained. “Now, I see your little helicopter coming for you. Let me go see that its landing is all set. Excuse me.”
The captain left the deck and went inside to the control room, leaving Glenn Rollins to wonder why these two great research ships would leave Antarctica just as the spring was here, just as researchers from all the other Antarctic countries were arriving. But then, he thought, there were so many strange things about MV Nunatak and indeed about the Purpose Fund’s polar and glacial research. The scientists he had spoken with over dinner on board last night said they weren’t even sure what was in the big equipment pods that were being flown out to the five Purpose Fund bases. One thing was sure, they were pretty heavy to need such a big Russian helicopter to haul them out there.
If only the National Science Foundation had the kind of money for glacier research that the Purpose Fund had. At least somebody understands how important the East Antarctic glaciers are for potential sea level rise, but try to tell that to the Congress, he thought, as he watched the little American helicopter, a Dauphin, circling the ship’s helipad.
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