Although there were many red stars on Yugoslav territory, everyone knew that their presence still a matter for debate. It was not the buffer zone Stalin had sought. Worse now there was a new threat that made this buffer appear even smaller.
The eight most powerful men in the Soviet Union sat along the table at which they decided the fate of the millions of Russian citizens. All their eyes were on Stalin who had uncharacteristically got up and begun pacing. They had all heard the feedback from Chief staff Antonov: the European ceasefire was holding; there had been no exchange of fire for over nearly a month. The Red Army was gradually standing down from a complete war footing. 550 000 men would be let go on temporary leave to help with spring planting No-one, not even Stalin had asked any questions.
Antonov had been followed by Beria and Kurchatov who in a five minute presentation had made clear the power of the new American weapon that had been tested the week before in the deserts of the American southwest. The atom bomb project had advanced its own timetable due to additional uranium being supplied from German sources. Sources they could not access. Ironically it was the German Communist Klaus Fuchs who was now the main source of information for Beria. Thanks fully there were others, corrupt Americans, a few whose political leanings had led them into the arms of the MVD as students. Beria was grateful for this because the results conveyed by Fuchs were too disturbing to accept on the basis of a single source. A single bomb had destroyed an area nearly 12 kilometers in diameter. Its shock- and heat wave reaching further still. Whoever had access to such power would win. Nothing would stand in the way of an army able to deploy such weapons even on a limited scale. At present the Soviet Union had no such weapons. Kurchatov had briefly summarized the theoretical abilities of his research team, glossing over that critical information had been supplied by spies like the German Communist Klaus Fuchs and others. He ended his comments with a simple but devastating statement. ”At present, comrades our capability remains theoretical; we have the ability to build such a weapon as well as the capability to detonate it. We do not however have the material from which it is made, not in sufficient quantities.”
“Well then the geological specialists of the country must redouble their efforts to produce the amounts needed, how much are you looking for” Malenkov had spoken before considering the mood in the room. He was hearing this for the first time.
“We require less than five kg of pure uranium, comrade” Kurchatov answered, and before he could add a comment about the metals scarcity.”
“Surely that cannot be a problem for the glorious Soviet mining industry.” Malenkov again was speaking before thinking.
Beria saw his chance. “The reality Comrade commissar is that to acquire that much material we would have to mine about three million tons of ore for every kilo found. That is assuming that we would find such ore. To date we have had limited success.”
“Remind us comrade Commissar, Stalin’s voice was neutral, ‘where we would acquire such material.’ It was a subtle hint from the dictator to stop the bungling economics tirade.
“There are at present two certain sources that we know about where this metal is found in the quantities required for bomb making: an obscure mine in the Belgian colony of the Congo in central Africa and in the Erzgebirge a chain of mountains south-eastern Germany bordering on the former Czechoslovakia and Poland, the pre-war boundaries that is. They are at present outside of our reach. There is also the theoretical possibility of synthetically producing the material for a bomb of similar capabilities, but there are potentially even greater hurdles to that challenge.”
‘Are these deposits truly outside of our reach, Comrades ? ‘Antonov had not yet left the room. Although not a member of the Central Committee, the Marshall’s voice commanded a great deal of respect. Even if the war had not ended the way they would have liked it, no-one denied that it was Antonov’s management of Stalin and Zhukov’s drive and genius more than anyone else including Stalin, that had gotten them this far. Antonov, apart from, Zhukov was one of the few was remained outspoken in the dictator’s presence.
Stalin, hands behind his back slowly walked along the windows. It was a hazy day and the sunlight that penetrated the room was just bright enough to obscure his features to the others looking into the light. Funny’ Beria, thought I can never get over how small comrade Stalin really is.
At this point Kurchatov stood up bowed and left. “Comrades we are moving into the realms of policy and I am merely an academician. If there are no further technical questions I would ask to be excused. I remain at your disposal.” A quick nod from Stalin and he was gone.
“What do you think Marshall?” Stalin was non-committal. “That depends on what we expect the Americans to do, on our chances of finding this material within our borders or the areas under our control and whether …” he paused, catching himself. Antonov had no intentions of venturing into the realm of politics. … “on whether, rather on what this committee deems appropriate policy for the Rodina.”
Pity, Beria smirked to himself, if Antonov would have made a wrong step that would have been just the right ammunition to get rid of the man at a later stage before he got too big for his boots. In the deep dark caverns of his mind, Beria still harboured hopes of one day ascending to the highest office and he knew that a man like Antonov who had a low opinion of the secret service would not be an ally.
“We cannot trust the Americans, and certainly not the British. They actively denied us access to any information on the German uranium bomb project.”
“That is true,” Stalin’s voice was firmer now” but where does that leave us. The Soviet Union will need such a weapon to defend itself against enemies from abroad.”
“Then we must consider the wisest course of action to acquire it. “This was safe stuff and Beria felt comfortable asserting it but it did not get them any further.
Well other than moving into south-eastern Germany what are our options. I assume that the Americans know about that deposit ?
“They do comrade although most of their material came from the Congo.”
“The capitalist are decadent, their armies are in a greater state of demobilization than our forces; at least in the European theatre. The German military machine is being dismantled by the Anglo-Americans in search of new weapons. We should have the strategic advantage, if the Americans do not have too many of these weapons.”
“We could disrupt their access by sending agitators to mobilize the workers in those mines, as well as the railway and transport workers in that area.’
The chief ideologue was suddenly on a roll, “we could immobilize production in Germany and in the colonial possession. At the very least it would severely limit the capitalists ability to produce more bombs and to threaten the Motherland with them. At the very least this would buy us time for a more opportune situation to arise either in the form of a discovery of this metal within our own borders or in the form of another crisis within global capitalism as it deals with the contradictions of post-war economic challenges and its desires for expansionism. At that moment we could make our move. “
“How long after acquiring the material would we need to wait before having our own bomb comrade Beria.” The spy chief went cold, he had to guess Kurchatov had always stressed certain conditions for success, now he was not entirely sure of what all those conditions where. If he guessed wrong and they went to war and then failed… “About six months to a year, comrades.” It seemed like a good and safe figure. Enough time to fabricate an excuse if it turned out to be longer.
“Can we manage six months in the face of such a weapon ? …”
“The key question comrades is whether the Americans possess more of these weapons or whether these were prototypes deployed into the field.” [110]
“How can we determine this comrades?” Beria had few friends and now all eyes again turned to him. The spymaster loved his secret world and the power it gave him. But in view of the losses and setbacks his own spy netw
orks had suffered over the past year, he was less willing to base his fate on their reports.
Now it was Stalin who pressed his point. “Comrade, I understand your discretion but we are all trusted comrades here.”
“I will obviously need to refresh my memory comrades but my reports suggest that the Americans do not possess many of these devices nor the ability to build more than a few within the year. I will however report back to this committee in greater detail if that is requested once I have verified these points.”
A major setback – he had been shown not to be in complete control.
Stalin was walking along the row of windows – his face still invisible as the outside daylight silhouetted him. What Beria did not grasp and most of the others around the table did not know was that even if the Soviet Union possessed access to weapons grade material, it lacked the machine for the strategic delivery of such a heavy bomb, at least for the moment. Only the Americans with their B-29 Superfortress possessed a plane capable of delivering such a heavy bomb over great distances. The Soviet Union had the BE 8 bomber, its capabilities nothing comparable to the B-29. Russia, however had acquired 3 damaged B-29s in late 1944. In fact nine days after Stauffenberg had killed Hitler, a B-29 operating from China had landed at Vladivostok after being damaged over Japan. Two more had followed in November 1944. The planes had been separated from their crews and the great bomber designer Tupolev had been assigned the task of analysing the plane’s capabilities and the requirements of building a Soviet version of this strategic bomber. Stalin loved knowing these details which he knew were not accessible to many of the other committee members. He alone saw the link, he alone was fit to lead. Having a weapon and being able to use it were not the same. Zhukov would have understood that but the Marshall had gotten a bit too big for his boots recently. You need a reliable means of delivering it. That was why the German design for an Amerikabomber had been so interesting. He had seen Beria’s report on where American bomb development and production capacity were headed. He enjoyed Beria’s fear, the uncertainty of the spymaster, but it also told him that there was insufficient information to base a bold decision on. Even he had to tread carefully here. But his memory was better than that of Beria; Kurchatov had made it clear only 3 months ago that even with access to enough weapons grade material a Soviet bomb was at least two years away. No doubt Beria would discover that report again and revise his estimate. For the moment it did not matter. What mattered was that he had all the facts. The Soviet Union had pushed its sphere of influence far into Europe, further than even Peter the Great had managed. Not enough to be sure, but Moscow and the armaments factories of the Urals were for the moment safe from any real threat of American atomic bombs. One day that would change, but by then Beria would have hopefully secured some of the German rocket technology and Tupolev and his team would have given the Soviet Union a bomber capable of striking back.
He had never expected, nor really wanted to remain on friendly terms with the Western allies in peace as he had done in war. Roosevelt had been naïve but useful. He, Stalin, was a Communist, and after his own fashion a sincere one; at least he ordered his rhetoric and logic according to its dialectical requirements. Peaceful co-existence, as Lenin had outlined was appropriate when it suited the Soviet Union, war when that was required, and hostility without open confrontation and bloodshed when it was necessary or profitable. He would keep the ‘correlation of forces’ until the situation dictated otherwise. He had once told Harry Hopkins that ‘the Soviet Union always honours its word, except in case of extreme necessity.’ For the moment he did not need a new war; he needed time to digest the new areas his forces had absorbed. Now it was time to deal with the troublesome Tito. But as Lenin had quoted Clausewitz, the greatest victory was one where the enemy surrendered without a fight. For the moment it was good enough.[111]
Silently Stalin gazed around the table of the mighty Soviet leaders, none of which dared utter a word without his guidance. The Soviet Union was pledged by the teachings of Marx and Lenin to purge capitalism from the face of the Earth. Capitalism was not merely evil it was decadent and in that decadence would lie its weakness. Roosevelt, now dead, had spoken of peace on Earth, a new international order. He was dead now. He had never understood that Communists had to ultimately be committed to continued struggle against capitalism. Capitalism had remained too powerful for too long. That needed to change but from the sign of things that might already be changing. Certainly the Red Army had fought to accomplish much of this if not for the last minute awakening of class interest that had possessed the British when Hitler was removed by his officers. Roosevelt had been generous. Naïve, but generous. Willing to trade war materials on an unprecedented scale to secure a dream. Roosevelt’s United Nations dream had never been credible for the Soviet Union. Certainly he had gone along with it but more to keep Roosevelt happy. But he had never believed it; one did not go from a world of international rivalries to a world of international co-operation, not when the objectives of international capital and the international working classes remained at odds. He remembered how at their single meeting Roosevelt had always hesitated before disagreeing with anything Stalin wanted. With Roosevelt gone Truman had departed from the set course. Truman was certainly not cosmopolitan, but Stalin had to concede the man in contrast to his predecessor was not naïve.
But the American possession of the atomic bomb naturally troubled him. As in the times of Napoleon, so in 1945, the industrial technological superiority of the Anglo-Saxons had produced a new weapon that was pulling the rug out from underneath a Russian victory. [112] The war with Germany was over, even if there was no agreement to that effect. He would return to rebuilding his control over the Party which the needs of war had loosened. He would revive the ideology purity of the Party, shut down relations with the countries whose influences he no longer wanted on his territory until the Soviet Union was once again ready. No information would pass outwards unless it was useful to the country.[113] For the moment he would put pressure on the British and Americans at various points and most probably the western powers would crumble on their weakest link – France and possibly their colonial empires. Until he had the bomb, there was no need to press too hard, surely an opportunity would present itself, one day. The Soviet forces had achieved feats even he had not imagined possible and this myth would protect them for a while. It would take Russia time to build new weapons systems, this atomic bomb and the means to deliver it. For what the Western statesmen would never understand was that Communism needed an enemy; capitalism had to menace the socialist system.
Hitler had surprised him in 1941 and nearly destroyed the Soviet system when he had briefly flirted with a fellow dictator, then Stauffenberg’s bomb had set in motion a chain of events that had deprived him of the cordon sanitare that he craved to isolate himself from future surprises. Once again the Poles of Warsaw had played a major part in thwarting him. Now this new bomb and a new strategic bomber, threatened even these limited gains. No, Stalin decided looking back at his comrades, for the moment there would be no more war. The next few years the Soviet Union would focus its efforts domestically and globally on becoming a nuclear power. For the moment, the Americans held the strategic ace. But their vision would be blurred as Europe would descend into its traditional power politics of class rivalries and nationalist fervours. In the absence of a clear Soviet threat, squabbles among the capitalist class would turn Americans interest inward. Beria’s agents would do their part to assist in that process, possibly in the colonial empires. And before anyone would know it the Soviet Union would regain her strength and her advantage.
And with that he turned to Molotov: “Comrades I think for the moment we should allow Comrade Molotov to respond to the peace overtures. … as long as they do not threaten any of territorial gains. Let us have peace for the time being.”
“Nulla salus bello pacem te poscimus omnes”
(Of war little good will come, but the peace we all seek) Vergil<
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Postscript:
What did I change, really only two small but ultimately crucial items: On July 17 1944 Field Marshall Rommel was badly wounded by British Typhoon fighter bombers who caught his car out in the open. All accounts are unanimous that during the attack Rommel’s car was racing for safety. It had been the call of the spotter NCO and Rommel's aide to make. As often as not the Germans just abandoned their vehicles and rode out Allied air attacks and that is what in that split second Lt. Helmuth Lang chose not to do. I my opinion Rommel's availability on and after 20/07 1944 fundamentally affects the way the plotters would have dealt with the Allied and the way they would have strategically contained them for their purposes on the Eastern Front. Rommel has frequently been described as Germany's greatest strategist of the war when in fact he was in part a lucky opportunist and a brilliant and persistent improviser. The title of most able strategist of the Wehrmacht should go to officers such a von Rundstedt and von Manstein, but it was Rommel who among the opposition officers was senior enough and possessed that agility of mind to deal with the Western Allies the way I have described in this book.
The Valkyrie Option Page 71