by Alan Weisman
Unless you actually are fortunate enough to own a corporation, that’s a fantasy, but here’s some reality on a planet that’s now like a company swollen beyond its means, its cafeteria incapable of feeding all its personnel, who have grown too numerous for all to be properly paid what they deserve:
The Earth can’t sustain our current numbers, and inevitably, one way or another, those numbers must come down. Even as I write these words, I recall a jarring 2011 radio interview of Dr. Harold Wanless, chair of the University of Miami’s Department of Geological Sciences.
“By the end of this century,” Wanless warned, “regions of south Florida will be uninhabitable. Miami–Dade County will be abandoned. Mumbai will be abandoned—15 million people. Atlantic City—you name it. With a four-or five-foot rise in sea level, most of the deltas of the world will be abandoned.”
Until recently, that might have been dismissed as a crackpot’s ranting. But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2007 worst-case scenario of less than a two-foot rise by the year 2100 is now being grimly reconsidered, as poles melt faster than expected and their dark exposed waters absorb more heat, and as thawing methane deposits bubble forth. The only one I’ve found disputing Dr. Wanless’s extreme predictions is a Florida real estate blogger. Scarcely a year after he made them, after not just Atlantic City’s, but New York City’s shores succumbed to surging seas, it was growing less likely that many others would challenge him.
I don’t want to cull anyone alive today. I wish every human now on the planet a long, healthy life. But either we take control ourselves, and humanely bring our numbers down by recruiting fewer new members of the human race to take our places, or nature is going to hand out a pile of pink slips. When you see survival of the fittest portrayed on the National Geographic Channel, it’s entertaining. When it happens to your own species, it’s not pretty.
I lingered on the grass by Lake of the Isles until the young mothers with their strollers departed, leaving the early evening joggers. As twilight settled and Jupiter rose in a velvet sky, the path around the lake filled with lovers, young and old. Hand in hand, they represented the grand spectrum that has enriched the city of my birth from its early Scandinavian majority into the splendid swirl that defines our globalized species today: Latino, Caucasian, Asian, African, and Native Americans, joined in the ancient courtship rituals of my fellow humans, doing what comes naturally.
For us to keep doing that, all that’s required is that we leave space for our fellow species to do the same. So simple, so reasonable, and in our days to come and on beyond us, still so beautiful.
Acknowledgments
Years ago I lived in rural Mexico, where I saw mule riders arrive in remote villages with polystyrene saddlebags filled with vaccines and birth control. The former, to protect living children, gave women the confidence to use the latter—which they were already eager to try, thanks to a powerful message coming to them via a powerful medium.
That was the television soap opera, among the most beloved forms of entertainment in Latin America. Once, at the bottom of Chihuahua’s Copper Canyon, I saw five horseback cowboys watching the evening’s telenovela through the window of a grocery store, where the townspeople gathered around a thirteen-inch black-and-white TV powered by a diesel generator. Among the most popular shows in the late 1970s was one titled Acompáñame—Accompany Me—produced, directed, and cowritten by Miguel Sabido. Imbedded in this family drama of three sisters and their respective struggles with their husbands—including over whether to plan their pregnancies—was the message that smaller families live better.
Acompáñame is widely credited for the 34 percent drop in Mexico’s fertility rate during the decade the series aired. Sabido’s method inspired the work of the Population Media Center in Burlington, Vermont, which today produces soap operas that promote family planning in twenty-two languages: electronic analogs of the family-planning street theater I witnessed in Pakistan. PMC has been a font of information and news about reproductive health, for which I warmly thank Bill Ryerson, Katie Elmore, and Joe Bish.
I’m grateful for the guidance of other population NGOs, each with its own approach to this complex subject. My thanks to Marian Starkey of the Population Connection (originally Zero Population Growth); Jason Bremner of the Population Reference Bureau and his colleague Karen Hardee, formerly of Population Action International; Musimbi Kanyoro, past director of the Packard Foundation’s Population and Reproductive Health Program; Geoff Dabelko and Meaghan Parker of the Woodrow Wilson International Center’s Population, Health, and Environment program; and John Guillebaud and, especially, Roger Martin of the UK’s Population Matters, née Optimum Population Trust.
I am also indebted to the readily available resources of the Guttmacher Institute, the United Nations Population Fund, and the Communication Consortium Media Center’s invaluable PUSH Journal (Periodic Updates of Sexual and Reproductive Health Issues Around the World), which enlightened me daily while working on this book. Finally, a deep bow to Hania Zlotnick, former director of the UN’s Population Division, whose office I walked into in 2009 with a raw idea in mind—and walked out of hours later with piles of essential reading and references, and wise, patient advice that sustained me continually over the next three years.
Heather D’Agnes, past director of USAID’s Population, Health, and Environment programs, generously offered me encouragement, vital information, and crucial contacts. I’m also beholden to her en famille mentors: her mother, Leona D’Agnes, advisor to reproductive health programs in southeast Asia, who helped me navigate trips to the Philippines and Thailand, and her father, Thomas D’Agnes, author of the fine biography of Mechai Viravaidya, From Cabbages to Condoms.
In 2003, I spoke at an international conference in Hannover, Germany, on water as a source of conflict in the twenty-first century. The most compelling moment was a joint presentation by an Israeli coordinator for Friends of the Earth–Middle East and the deputy head of the Palestinian Water Authority. No matter how incandescent the tension between their two peoples, every week they managed to speak, because the urgency to preserve a scarce natural resource transcended nationality. Listening to these brave men, many of us were near tears.
That memory inspired my first trip for this book, to the divided land considered hallowed ground by much of the world. In Israel, I thank Daniel Orenstein and his colleagues at Haifa’s Israel Institute of Technology; Gidon Bromberg of EcoPeace/Friends of the Earth–Middle East; Eilon Schwartz and Jeremy Benstein of the Heschel Center for Environmental Learning and Leadership, and past Heschel fellow and landscape architect Rachel Landani; Rabbi Dudi Zilbershlag of Haredim for the Environment; Tamar Dayan, Yoran Yom-Tov, Amotz Zahavi, and ornithologist Yossi Leshem of Tel Aviv University’s Department of Zoology; Jerusalem deputy mayor Naomi Tsur; director Binyamin Eiben Boim of Mea She’arim’s Yeshiva Sha’ri Ha Torah; University of Haifa geographer Arnon Soffer; Hebrew University demographer Sergio DellaPergola; Huleh Valley farmer Ellie Galili; journalists Zafrir Rinat of Haaretz and Sylvana Foa of the Village Voice; desalination planner Dan Perry; Arava Institute for Environmental Studies’ Alon Tal, Elli Groner, David Lehrer, Tamar Norkin, and Tareq Abuhamed; Phil Warburg and Tamar Gindis for many valuable contacts; and Sheik Saed Qrinawy and Ahmad Amrani of the Bedouin city of Rahat.
In Palestine, my deep thanks to demographer Khalil Toufakji of the Arab Studies Society in Jerusalem; Jad Isaac and Abeer Safar of Bethlehem’s Applied Research Institute–Jerusalem; Palestinian director Nader Khateb of Friends of the Earth–Middle East; Palestinian Water Authority director Shaddad Attili; attorney and peace talks negotiator Diana Bhutto; Al-Amari refugee camp residents Ruwaidah Um-Said, Ayat Um-Said, and her children, Rheem and Zacariah; their neighbors Abed, Jabert, Hayat, and Ahmad Fatah; the family of Firyal, Nisreen, and Ala’a———; Mahmoud and Nidal———; geographer Khaldoun Rishmawi; and especially my guide and translator in both Arabic and Hebrew, Nidal Rafa.
That trip ende
d in Aqaba, Jordan. My next was to the United Kingdom, where, in addition to Optimum Population Trust/Population Matters, I thank painter Gregor Harvie; Shropshire ornithologist John Tucker; British National Party deputy chairman Simon Darby; Dr. Mohammad Naseem of the Birmingham Central Mosque; Fazlun Khalid of the Islamic Foundation for Ecology and Environmental Science; economists Sir Partha Dasgupta of St. John’s College, Cambridge, and Pavan Sukhdev of Deutsche Bank; director Abdulkarim Khalil, deputy director Yusef Noden, board vice chair Farrid Shamsuddin, and Imam Samer Darwish of London’s Al-Manaar Muslim Cultural Heritage Centre; London School of Economics master’s candidate Asma Abdur Rahman; and Sara Parkin of the Forum for the Future.
In San José, Costa Rica, director Hilda Picado of the Asociación Demográfica Costarricense and demographer Luis Rosero Bixby of the Universidad de Costa Rica’s Centro Centroamericano de Población kindly spared time for me. I then joined conservation biologist Gretchen Daily; Stanford graduate students Chase Mendenhall, Danny Karp, and Melinda Belisle; naturalist Jeisson Figueroa Sandi; and ornithologist Jim Zook at the Organization for Tropical Studies’ Las Cruces Biological Station. Like all great field scientists, they seem to work harder and have more fun than anyone, and I’m ever grateful they included me.
Next came Uganda, where I traveled with two dedicated reproductive health specialists, epidemiologist Lynne Gaffikin and Dr. Amy Voedisch, to the Bwindi Impenetrable Forest. Thanks to them, I met the inspiring veterinarian Gladys Kalema-Zikusoka; her husband, Lawrence; and their associates at Conservation Through Public Health, including David Matsiko, Joseph Byonanebye, Alex Ngabirano, Dr. Abdulhameed Kateregga, Melinda Hershey, Samuel Rugaba, and CTPH co-founder Stephen Rubanga: my gratitude and admiration to them all. In Bwindi Community Hospital, I thank Dr. Mutahunga Birungi, Isaac Kahinda, and family-planning director Florence Ninsiima. At the Batwa Development Programme, Richard Magezi, the late Blackie Gonsalves, and the Batwa Pygmy families of Mukongoro settlement. At the Uganda Wildlife Authority, I thank Chief Warden Charles Tumwesigye, who approved my permit to track mountain gorillas, and forest guides Gard Kanuangyeyo and Fred Tugarurirwe.
In Uganda’s capital, Kampala, I am grateful to Dr. Peter Ibembe of Reproductive Health Uganda; Susan Mukasa of Population Services International; radio journalist Pius Sawa; Patricia Wamala of Family Health International–Uganda; Dorothy Balaba and Denis Mubiru of the Programme for Accessible Health Communication and Education; Jan Broekhuis of Wildlife Conservation Society–Uganda; and especially to Anne Fiedler of Pathfinder International and Joy Naiga of the Uganda Population Secretariat.
Gretchen Daily kindly invited me to join her again as, with colleagues Chris Colvin, Driss Ennaanay, and Luis Solórzano from the Natural Capital Project, she toured western China with their counterparts from the Chinese Academy of Sciences—who, to my great gratitude, hosted me as well: ecologists Ouyang Zhiyun, Wang Yukuan, and Zheng Hua; and economists Li Jie and Zeng Weihong. Thanks to them, my research for this book also benefited from conversations with residents in the towns of Feng Qian and Ling’guan, in the Tibetan village of Qiaoqi, and on Hainan Island. Throughout our travels in Sichuan, I enjoyed the expert help of translator Yan Jing.
In Xi’an, my great thanks to demographer Li Shuzhou, founder of Care for Girls—and, in Beijing, to his mentor, former missile scientist and demographic planner Jiang Zhenghua. In China’s always boggling capital city, I also thank obstetrics nurse Wang Ming Li of the Beijing Aobei Hospital; Guardian correspondent Jonathan Watts, author of a gem of environmental journalism, When a Billion Chinese Jump; and Beijing journalists Chen Ou, Yan Kai, Fu Hui, and especially Cui Zheng, who was also my able translator. Last, my warm thanks to “Lin Xia” and her parents, who kindly shared their story, and to my perspicacious Chinese literary agent, Jackie Huang.
My trip to the Philippines owed hugely to the help of Dr. Joan Castro of the PATH Foundation and her colleague Dr. Ron Quintana. I was further enlightened by Ramon San Pascual of the Philippines Legislators’ Center for Population and Development, Ben De Leon of the Forum for Family Planning and Development, and Dr. Junice Melgar of the community reproductive health NGO known as Likhaan: I am grateful to many women in Likhaan clinics throughout Greater Manila for their time and willingness to talk to me. Thanks also to nurse “Roland” and the unnamed health facility where he works, for his frankness about the struggle between his faith and his profession.
The PATH Foundation also coordinated my travels to Isla Verde, where I was hosted by Jemalyn Rayos, and to Bohol, where another excellent guide, Geri Miasco, introduced me to Dr. Frank Lobo in Talibon, midwife Mercy Butawan in Humay-Humay, and, in Ubay, Mayor Eutiquio Bernales and coastal resource manager Alpios Delima. Geri also accompanied me to the island of Guindacpan, where nutritionist Perla Pañares, nurse Estrella Torrevillas, and numerous fisherfolk took time to show me how the sea is reclaiming their village.
Iris Dimaano-Bugayong arranged my visit to the International Rice Research Institute on Luzon, where director Robert Ziegler kindly granted me his time and access to IRRI’s staff. My great thanks to him and to crop scientist Roland Buresh, evolutionary ecologist Ruaraidh Sackville Hamilton, and Paul Quick, coordinator of the C4 Rice Project.
At the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maíz y Trigo) in Texcoco, Mexico, I was graciously received by CIMMYT Director Thomas Lumpkin; maize breeder Félix San Vicente; Global Wheat Program director Hans-Joachim Braun; wheat physiologist Matthew Reynolds; deputy director general for research Marianne Bänziger; Genetic Resources Center head Tom Payne; socioeconomists Pedro Aquino-Mercado and Dagoberto Flores; and Peter Wenzl, head of the Crop Research Informatics Laboratory. My thanks to them and to Caritina Venado, who organized my visit. In Mexico City, I thank demographers Silvia Elena Giorguli Saucedo, Manuel Ordorica Mellado, and José Luis Lezama at Colegio de México; poet Homero Aridjis and Betty Ferber of Grupo de los Cien; María Luisa Sánchez Fuentes of GIRE—El Grupo de Información en Reproducción Elegida; Nick Wright of Casa de los Amigos; Areli Carreón of Sin Maíz No Hay País; architect Eduardo Farah; Juan Carlos Arjona of the Mexican Environmental Law Center (Centro Mexicano de Derecho Ambiental); community activist Eduardo Farah; and Carlos Anzado of the Consejo Nacional de Población.
In the state of Morelos, I thank reproductive rights advocate Dr. Estela Kempis and her husband, filmmaker Gregory Berger. And at the Nuestros Pequeños Hermanos orphanage, mil gracias to Dr. Luis Moreno, Father Phil Cleary, Paco Manzanares, Elvi Clara Jaramillo, Marisol Aguilar Castillo, Erika Klotz—and with fond remembrance, the late Father William Wasson, whose humanity and legacy lives on in thousands of children he saved.
Early in my career, I wrote about Father Wasson’s work, and over the years he became a friend and mentor. Our discussions of Catholicism proved invaluable preparation for my research in the world’s smallest country—albeit among the most influential. I thank Monsignor Marcelo Sánchez Sorondo of the Vatican’s Pontifical Academy of Sciences and Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace for their willingness to discuss sensitive issues I raised with them. For helpful advice on Vatican coverage, thanks also to National Catholic Reporter’s John Allen and NPR correspondent Sylvia Poggioli.
Outside the Vatican’s walls, I am grateful to demographers Antonio Golini and Massimo Livi-Bacci; political scientist Giovanni Sartori; Italian Senate vice president and now foreign affairs minister Emma Bonino; parliamentarian Claudio D’amico of the Lega Nord; economists Leonardo Becchetti and Tito Boeri; Legambiente president Vittorio Cogliati Dezza; OB-GYN Dr. Carlo Flamigni; male fertility specialist Dr. Giuseppe La Pera; Prof.ssa Lucia Ercoli of Medicina Solidale e delle Migrazioni; the students and faculties of Rome’s Scuola Media Pubblica Salvo D’acquisto, Scuola Media Daniele Manin, and St. George’s British International School; Gianfranco Bologna of WWF-Italy; immigrant-rap musician Amir Issa; Jacopo Romoli and Claudia Ribet of the Rome Science Festival; co
rporate manager Ornella Vitale; park guide Licia Capparella; Dr. Vincenzo Pipitone and biologist-nutritionist Claudia Giafaglione; software designer Emilio Vaca and, for all her help and guidance, journalist Sabrina Provenzani. Thanks also to translator Livia Borghese, and to University of Massachusetts–Amherst anthropologist Betsy Krause, who generously shared her insights into Italy’s declining fertility. That same topic in another traditionally Catholic European country, Spain, was kindly explained to me by demographer Margarita Delgado in a visit to Madrid’s Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas.
En route to Niger, I was hosted in Tripoli, Libya, by journalist Yusra Tekbali, and further enlightened about her country in conversations with her brother, Salam Tekbali, and friends Zubaida Bentaher, Moha Bensofia, Adam Hassan, and Sideq Qabaj. At the time, events that ultimately led to the overthrow of dictator Muammar Gaddafi were in their embryonic stage, and the hopes of these bright young people for a Libyan awakening were inspiring. Within weeks, all were either fleeing, fighting, protecting their families, or reporting on what became the tragic birth of a Libyan future still to be determined. I regret that just after I left, Jamal Said Fteis of Arkno Tours, who facilitated my visa, was gunned down by Gaddafi’s soldiers as he left a mosque. I hope that his last act in this world—praying—comforted his final moments.
My guide in the West African Sahel nation of Niger was Nigerien journalist Baraou Idy, a friend I intend to keep: warm gratitude to him and his wife Mariana Hassane Idy. Thanks also to demographer Mounkaila Haruna of the Université Abdou Moumouni Dioffo de Niamey; Bako Bagassa, director of Foula, the condom-distribution program of the Association Nigerienne de Marketing Social (Animas-Sutura); Dr. Galy Kadir Abdelkader of the Educational Research Network for West and Central Africa; Drs. Koli Lamine, Maidaji Oumarou, and Sayadi Sani of Bien Eire el la Femme et de l’Enfant au Niger; Thierry Allafort-Duverger, director of the Alliance for International Medical Action (ALIMA); Col. Abdoulkarim Goukoye, head of Niger’s Haute Autorité à la Sécurité Alimentaire; UNFPA’s Mme. Martine Camacho at the Multi-sector Demographic Program (PRODEM); and Sahidou Abdoussalam, Navid Djewakh, and Agathe Diama at ICRISAT-Niger, the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics.