by Doug Raber
The Secretary of Defense was pleased to see that the number of heads nodding agreement had increased. He thought perhaps he had won a few converts. “Are there any questions to this point?”
He knew he had made a mistake as soon as he asked the question. He should have forced all questions to the end, after Edwards had made his presentation. Now his opponents could snipe at his arguments one at a time, before he and Edwards had finished making their case.
“Mr. Secretary—” It was Bert Morrison, the DNI. “You didn’t provide any attribution to your intelligence citations.”
“That is quite correct, Mr. Director. We discussed this at some length, and we concluded that even with this august group, it would be unwise to reveal the actual identities of specific agents.”
It was apparent to all in the room that the Director of National Intelligence was not pleased by the response. In fact, his anger was barely concealed. “I happen to have the same reports from which you’ve just quoted, and I believe the identities of the sources are highly relevant.”
The Vice President interrupted. “I’m afraid that I need to rule you out of order here, Mr. Morrison. The security of the United States must be protected at all costs, and we cannot afford to compromise it by revealing intelligence sources.”
Before anyone could say another word—and it was clear that a heated argument was ready to erupt—the President spoke. “Mr. Vice President, please forgive me for interrupting, but these are extraordinary circumstances. We’re discussing military options that could affect our country—the entire world—for many years to come. Everyone in this room is cleared at the highest levels, and secrecy might allow the wrong conclusion, one that could lead us to the wrong action. I’d like the DNI to proceed.”
The Vice President was enraged. But he could do nothing other than let Morrison continue, recognizing that he had to follow the President’s instructions.
“Thank you Mr. President. Mr. Vice President, the first of those quotes can be sourced directly to an Iranian political opposition group. The other two are from a retired Israeli military officer.”
Walker wasn’t giving up. “That’s precisely why I gave you those reports, Mr. Director. Who better than the Iranians themselves, those who recognize the horrible flaws of the regime, to deliver us the truth? They have the contacts, they have the resources, and they have the knowledge. We are fortunate that they share it with us. And a former Israeli military officer? This man is a real expert. We know him and we know we can trust him. I am afraid, sir, that you are attempting to discredit our friends when you should be focused on our enemies.”
Morrison raised an eyebrow. “I know that you’ve used opposition groups for a long time. Opposition groups and expats, too. You are not alone, because we’ve been doing that across all the intelligence services for many years, for many decades. But doing so carries a very high risk. These people have a vested interest in changing the regime in Iran, but they don’t necessarily give a damn about the United States of America. If anybody wants specific examples of the risks, just look at the historical results of using intelligence from expats. That’s how Eisenhower got the debacle in Hungary in 1956. It’s how Kennedy got the Bay of Pigs in 1961. And it’s how Bush got Iraq in 2003. It’s exactly what I said it was. It’s very high risk. In the absence of reliable information from other sources, we can’t use it.”
Walker saw his arguments circling down the drain. “What about the Israeli? The Israelis are trusted allies. Surely, you aren’t going to impugn his integrity?”
“No, Mr. Secretary, I am not. Your Israeli source has provided a great deal of well-researched and well-documented information. In fact, it’s so good that I’d like to read a bit more of it to this entire gathering. I have in front of me the full document from which you pulled your quotations. Here’s another from the same document, one that you didn’t read to us:
Most of the information for this part was supplied by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) early 2003. There are conflicting attitudes over the reliability of the NCRI reports, mainly due to the U.S. State Department statement on August 15 naming the NCRI as affiliate to the Mujahidin-e-Khalq (MEK) terrorist organization …
“As you can see, I don’t need to attack the credibility of your Israeli source. He was quite rigorous, and he explicitly discredited the intelligence himself. Mr. Vice President, I believe we should all recognize that we are attempting to make a decision, a recommendation to the President, on the basis of extremely unreliable and incomplete information.” The DNI was careful to avoid any hint of smugness in either his voice or his expression, but he knew that he had fully discredited the intelligence reports presented by the Secretary of Defense. A discreet look around the room confirmed his conclusion. Those nodding in implicit agreement, if not outright approval, represented a clear majority.
Walker was livid and unable to disguise his emotions. Moreover, he understood fully what had just happened. Rather than attempt to rebut the DNI, he decided to press forward in a new direction. Barely keeping his voice, and his chin, from trembling, he motioned to his Under Secretary for Intelligence. “With your permission, Mr. Vice President, I would like to ask Under Secretary Edwards to present some new information. Something very important.” After a moment’s hesitation, Walker added, “He just got the information this morning. We haven’t had an opportunity to share it with the other side … I mean our colleagues … I mean, not even with Director Morrison. But the Under Secretary has copies for all of you now.”
With studied calm, Vice President Richards directed Edwards to proceed.
After handing a packet of papers to an aide, Edwards cleared his throat. “Mr. President, Mr. Vice President—I recognize the gravity of our situation. And I also recognize that emotions are running high. Whatever the results of these discussions, the implications for the American people are enormous. Consequently, you will understand the importance of the document that is now being distributed.”
Edwards made a compelling presentation of the Ferguson report. By the time he was done, he thought that everyone in the room finally understood they were talking about an American traitor. Jack Redhouse somehow had been directed and supported by one of the three rogue states that had been defined as the “axis of evil”* a decade earlier. He had launched an attack on America.
“Mr. President, it was a terrorist attack with one of the most dangerous and horrible diseases in all history. The report now sitting before the members of the National Security Council makes it crystal clear that the United States of America has been attacked by a foreign power. We were attacked by Iran, in the most reprehensible and immoral way imaginable. The facts speak for themselves sir. The choice of response is yours.”
Edwards was correct that his presentation had swayed the views of many in the room, among them the Secretary of Treasury, the Legal Counsel to the President, and the Attorney General. He hadn’t expected to convince the hard-line doves, so he hadn’t been looking at them. As a consequence, he had failed to notice that both the DNI and the National Security Advisor had each been following the text of the report as Edwards discussed it, taking notes. Had he looked carefully, he would have noticed that they indeed were marking on copies of the Ferguson report—but not the copies that Edwards had distributed. Similarly, had he looked, he would have noticed that the Secretary of State was also annotating a document while Edwards reviewed the Ferguson report. But her markings were on another document entirely.
The Vice President was also unaware that his opponents were focused on something other than the presentation Edwards had so carefully rehearsed. He, like Edwards, believed they had won their case. Incautiously, he asked “Are there any questions before we move toward finalizing a recommendation for the President?”
The Attorney General raised her hand to signal a desire to speak, an unusual move for Samantha Chernikov. She tended to remain silent during meetings. Now she directed her question to the Secretary of Defense. �
�What about genetic information? We’ve found, or more accurately, the FBI has found microbial forensics* to be extremely valuable. In 2008, the technique provided a definitive answer to the 2001 anthrax attacks. Has CDC done a gene sequence? Wouldn’t that identify whether the virus originated in Russia, for example? If that were the case, it would prove that the virus didn’t originate here in the U.S. After all, if it came from our own country, attacking Iran would be tantamount to mass murder.”
Quentin Walker suddenly looked like a deer caught in the headlights. He was not prepared for this. A quick glance over at Edwards resulted only in a slight shake of the head—Edwards had no idea either. The Vice President, still calm, stepped in. “I believe we have somebody here from CDC. Yes, could you identify yourself sir?” He motioned to a man at the back of the room.
“Yes sir. My name is Dr. Steven D. Rasmussen. I’m a physician at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. I’m the Director of the Coordinating Office for Terrorism Preparedness and Emergency Response. “
Trevor Richards didn’t want the conversation to go too far astray. “Dr. Rasmussen, can you answer the Attorney General’s question, using lay terms if you please, about genetic testing?”
“Certainly. Well, in the simplest terms, without going into how it’s actually done, we now have scientific instruments that provide a complete genetic sequence of an organism—a virus in this case. Basically, it’s like a fingerprint. So we can tell whether two organisms are identical or not. In this case, we were able to get samples of the original Russian—actually, original Soviet—virus cultures and compare them with what we found in Farmington. So far, we only have preliminary data, but we do know that the Farmington virus is different from all of the Russian samples.”
Once again, the room went silent. The Attorney General followed up her original question. “Then what you’re telling us doctor, is that this virus must have originated in the United States?”
“That may not be the case at all. The situation is much more complicated. It turns out that all viruses mutate. They evolve with time. Most of the mutations don’t have any effect on the pathogenicity, the ability of the virus to cause disease, but they do create differences in the molecular structure. So the only thing we can say for sure right now, is that this outbreak didn’t result directly from one of the actual samples that the Russians have had in cold storage for 30 years.”
“But you’re not entirely ruling out the Russian samples as the source?”
“No, ma’am, we can’t do that. But let me clarify: I can say the same thing about the samples that have been retained in the United States. The Farmington virus doesn’t match any of them, either. The only thing that we can say right now—and this is based on the information that our team of experts has sent back from New Mexico—is that the Farmington virus does not match any known smallpox sample.”
“Then it’s definitely a terrorist attack from overseas.” The Secretary of Defense had been unable to control his excitement.
“It’s possible. We believe that the Farmington virus has undergone normal mutations in the course of being cultured, very likely cultured to create a weaponized form. There are reports that Iran has tried to create genetically modified smallpox virus.* The Farmington virus might have resulted from intentional genetic modification, and it might be resistant to our vaccines. If that’s what we’re facing, the consequences could be truly horrific.”
Richards didn’t want anyone suggesting that decisions should wait until CDC completed whatever tests they were conducting on the Farmington virus. Action was needed now. “Thank you Dr. Rasmussen. You may take your seat again. Now, I think we are …”
“Mr. Vice President?” It was the Secretary of State.
“I have something here that I think everyone should know about. It’s something that was provided by the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research. I just received it this morning.” Calebresi looked over at Edwards and Walker. “We haven’t even had the opportunity to make copies yet. I’ve been reading it during these discussions, trying to make some sense out of it. Now I think I understand it. May I read part of this aloud?”
“This is highly irregular, Madam Secretary.” The Vice President suspected he had been outmaneuvered. Calebresi was playing this well enough to win an Oscar, while Morrison and Cunningham looked as innocent as newborn babes. A discreet glance toward the President told Richards that this was no time to force the issue. He had to let the scene play out. “Very irregular—but we’re all seeking the truth here. Please proceed.”
Caroline Calebresi was in top form—sincere, forceful, and eloquent. When she was done, everyone in the room knew that Jack Redhouse was no traitor. Even Richards.
As he saw his window of opportunity closing rapidly, the Vice President made one last lunge before it slammed shut. “Mr. President, I thank the Secretary of State for helping us to avoid making a terrible mistake. We were ready to take an American hero and tar him with the brush of disloyalty, to brand him a traitor. Fortunately, the Secretary has corrected that error, and now we can focus more clearly on the task before us. I have been listening carefully to everything that has been said here, and I think we know what must be done. The exoneration of Jack Redhouse confirms that the smallpox outbreak in New Mexico was not an example of domestic terrorism. There can no longer be any question of that.
He turned toward his foe and smiled at her. It was not a friendly smile. “But what the information provided by Secretary Calebresi does do for us—what it makes absolutely clear—is that the attack can be attributed to Iran and to Iran alone. We must act accordingly. Mr. President, on behalf of the National Security Council, I recommend that you commence immediately with final instructions for a tactical nuclear strike on Iran.”
In contrast to the dead silence that followed several of the previous speakers, the room was suddenly filled with sounds. There were whispered conversations on the sidelines, and several of the principals at the table tried to speak at the same time. “Mr. Vice President, I object—”
“Mr. President, you cannot—”
“This is an outrage!”
Before things could spin completely out of control, James Fallon Alexander rose from his chair. His deep voice was soft but powerful, and his imposing frame dominated the room, even from the end of the conference table. He brought almost instantaneous quiet to the room. “I shall not tolerate mob behavior in this meeting. Everyone please sit down.”
The President remained standing after everyone else was seated. “Mr. Vice President, I thank you for your acute analysis. You have done everything I asked in chairing these last few meetings of the Security Council, and I am deeply grateful. We have now reached the point at which I must make my own decision, and I am reassuming chairmanship of the Security Council.”
The other participants, the principals as well as those seated on the periphery, realized that something had just happened, but they weren’t quite sure what it was. They knew only that a major power play was occurring, or perhaps had just ended. Now they could only wait to see how things would develop further.
“There are two specific questions that I must address when I make my decision. The first is whether to undertake retaliatory action against Iran. That is a very serious question, and it has lasting import. The second, and that is assuming the answer to the first question were to be affirmative, is whether nuclear weapons should be employed. The significance of that decision is far greater. I am aware of the nuances in what may or may not be the official U.S. policy on responding to WMD attacks and whether the attack in New Mexico would mandate such a response. But that analysis can come only after a decision has been made on the first question. I must first reach a decision on whether we should retaliate against Iran.”
The Secretary of State was the first to signal a desire to speak, waiting only until Alexander finished. “Mr. President, I believe there are still unanswered questions with regard to the causes of the ou
tbreak in New Mexico. It is my constitutional duty to strive for diplomacy rather than resorting to war. I urge you to proceed slowly, to allow me and my colleagues in the Foreign Service to serve the American people in peace.”
The Secretary of Defense didn’t wait for the President to recognize him. “May I point out Madam Secretary, that it was your office, the Department of State, that listed Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism?* Your efforts at peaceful solutions have failed. This outbreak of smallpox in New Mexico is real. It is no theory. I concur with the Vice President that a rapid military response is necessary. When the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, we didn’t debate the topic for weeks on end. Our leaders then understood what needed to be done. We must stop this before it goes any further. We must act now.”
Before Walker could go on, a stern look from the President caused him to stop speaking and lean back in his chair. The President then nodded in response to a signal from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, another member of the NSC who rarely spoke up in front of the full assemblage.
“Mr. President, I am deeply disturbed by what we have heard here today.” He looked around at the others in the room, most of whom were steeling themselves for a further onslaught against Iran.
“What we have heard here today from representatives of the Department of Defense should have every person in this room paralyzed in fear. You may have concluded this was a minor attack with only a few deaths. Or you may believe it was the first wave of a massive biological onslaught. Those issues do not matter to me. Not today. Today, I must respond in my official capacity as the principal military advisor to the President and as the statutory military advisor to this Council.”
Radisson paused to take a deep breath. “We are witnessing the use of predetermined political goals in an attempt to drive a military decision. I understand that I am breaking ranks with the Secretary of Defense, and it is he, not I, who delivers orders to the troops from the Commander in Chief. Consequently, I am aware that some of you may take these remarks as my resignation speech. If that is the case, so be it. But I cannot endorse the proposed attack by our military. We must not commit our brave men and women, and we must not undermine our nation’s morality by attacking a sovereign government so lightly. That would require unambiguous proof that the New Mexico outbreak resulted from a planned attack by Iran. Mr. President, we have no such proof.”