Chances Are

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Chances Are Page 36

by Michael Kaplan


  Munich Re

  mutual societies

  Nagasaki bombing (1945)

  Napoleon I, Emperor of France

  Nash, John

  National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

  National Health Service, British

  National Institutes of Health Revitalization Act (1993)

  Natural and Political Observations upon the Bills of Mortality (Graunt)

  Naval War College, U.S.

  neurons

  neutrons

  Newton, Isaac

  Ngidi, William (Zulu tribesman)

  Nicomachean Ethics (Aristotle)

  Nietzsche, Friedrich

  Nightingale, Florence

  Nimitz, Chester W.

  Nixon, Richard M.

  Notes from Underground (Dostoyevsky)

  “not proven” verdict

  nuclear weapons

  Null Hypothesis

  numbers:

  abstract

  binary

  cardinal

  even

  large

  nature of

  odd

  ordinal

  permutations of

  series of

  sets of, see sets

  triangular

  numerology

  Occam’s razor

  occipital cortex

  Odyssey (Homer)

  Ogilby, John

  On the Effect of Education on the Habits of People

  On War (Clausewitz)

  optical illusions

  orders of magnitude

  Oresme, Nicole d,’

  Ovid

  Packard, Norman

  Palapa B-2 satellite

  Palmer, Tim

  Panic of 1837

  paradox

  parameters

  Parrondo’s paradox

  Pascal, Blaise

  Pascal’s Triangle

  Pascal’s Wager

  Pasteur, Louis

  Pausanias

  pea plants

  Pearl Harbor attack (1941)

  Pearson, Karl

  pebble urns

  Peirce, Charles

  Peninsular campaign (1862)

  Penrose, Roger

  People v. Collins

  Pepys, Samuel

  perpetual motion

  Petty, William

  Phenomena (Aratus)

  photons

  physics:

  laws of

  “moral,”

  Newtonian

  quantum

  reversibility in

  Pilate, Pontius

  pi (π) value

  placebo effect

  Plan Cabinet

  Plato

  Plimsoll, Samuel

  Plutarch

  p-number

  Poincaré, Henri

  Poisson’s curve

  poker (game)

  polio

  Polypill

  pool (game)

  Pope, Alexander

  population

  positron emission tomography (PET) scans

  poverty

  power law

  prayer

  Price, Richard

  Priestley, Joseph

  Principle of Insufficient Reason

  Principle of Restricted Choice

  Principles of Science (Jevons)

  Prior Analytics (Aristotle)

  prisoner’s dilemma

  probability:

  accuracy in

  a posteriori approach to

  a priori approach to

  bias in

  calculation of

  conditional

  distribution of

  equivalencies in

  expectation in

  frequency in

  inference from

  for insurance industry

  intrinsic

  inverse

  judgments based on

  legal

  as likelihood

  medical application of

  military application of

  misinterpretation of

  moral dimension of

  odds expressed by

  power law in

  prediction in

  reality and

  repetition in

  science of

  social context for

  statistical analysis of, see statistics

  subjectivist

  theory of

  truth and

  uncertainty analyzed by,

  probability (cont.)

  variables in

  in warfare

  in weather forecasts

  “problem of points,”

  profiling

  property, private

  Prosecutor’s Fallacy

  psychopaths

  Ptolemy

  Pujol, Juan

  Pushkin, Aleksandr

  Pygmy

  qualities

  quantum mechanics

  quartiles

  Queen of Spades, The (Pushkin)

  Quetelet, Adolphe

  Quincunx

  Rabelais, François

  radiation treatment

  radio waves

  railroads

  raisin crop

  RAND Corp.

  randomized double blind clinical trial

  randomness:

  advantages of

  chance as expression of

  definition of

  forecasting and

  generators of

  mathematical

  patterns in

  in statistical samples

  as stochastic process

  variation and

  in warfare

  in weather forecasts

  see also chaos theory

  “random walk,”

  Rapaport, Anatol

  Razz (card game)

  reality:

  abnormal

  deterministic

  interpretation of

  normal

  preconceptions of

  probability and

  representations of

  scale of

  reason, reasoning:

  abductive

  brain function in

  common sense as

  faith vs.

  first principles in

  intuition vs.

  irrationality vs.

  judgments based on

  legal

  social change and

  see also logic

  Reed, Walter

  regression to the mean

  Reign of Terror

  Reisswitz, Baron von

  Restricted Choice, Principle of

  Rhetoric (Aristotle)

  Richardson, Lewis Fry

  risk:

  assessment of

  benefit vs.

  capacity for

  diversification of

  exposure to

  inherent

  minimum chance of maximum (“minimax”)

  personal

  rate of

  reduction of

  social

  transfer of

  Risueño d’Amador, François-Benjamin-Isidore

  Rock, The (Eliot)

  Rodney, George Brydges, Admiral

  Roman Empire

  Rossmo, Kim

  Rothamsted Agricultural Experimental Station

  roulette

  ball trajectory in

  probabilities in

  randomness in

  tables for

  Royal McBee computer

  Royal Society

  Royal Statistical Society

  rubella

  Ruelle, David

  Rutherford, Ernest

  R. v. Adams

  Saint Petersburg Paradox

  Saints, battle of the

  Samuel

  Sanchy, Hierome

  satellites

  Saul

  Schauble, Barney

  Schlieffen Plan

  science:

  agronomic

  data in
<
br />   ethics of

  experimental method in

  fallibility of

  hypotheses in

  logical basis of

  medieval

  natural

  observation in

  physical laws of

  probability as basis of

  standardization of

  statistical analysis in

  truth in

  Scotland

  Sebek-hotep

  Second Law of Thermodynamics

  Seneca

  Senn, Stephen

  September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks

  sets:

  empty

  infinite

  intersection of

  measure of

  members of

  sub-

  theory of

  union of

  Shakespeare, William

  Shannon, Claude

  Shining Path

  Shubik, Mark

  Simon de Montfort

  Sinclair, John

  sine-curves

  smallpox

  Smith, Adam

  Smith, Sydney

  Snow, John

  Socrates

  solar radiation

  solar system

  solitaire

  Sophists

  sortilege

  Soult, Nicolas-Jean de Dieu

  Southern Oscillator

  Soviet Union

  Stalin, Joseph

  standard deviation

  Statistical Account of Scotland (Sinclair)

  statistical mechanics

  statistics

  average (arithmetic mean) in

  bias in

  calculation in

  change measured by

  collective analysis in

  correlation in

  data for

  distribution in

  economic

  error in

  governmental

  for groups

  health

  historical development of

  insurance

  interpretation of

  invention of

  legal

  mathematical basis of

  medical

  military application of

  moral implications of

  non-linear

  normal conditions in

  percentages in

  power in

  randomness in, see randomness

  samples for

  in science

  significance in

  social

  standard deviation in

  variables in

  steam power

  stochastic processes

  stochastic resonance

  stochastic simulation

  stock market

  strange attractors

  Strindberg, August

  “Student” (see Gossett, W. J.)

  Student’s t-test

  sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS)

  Sun Tzu

  superphosphate

  superstition

  Supreme Court, U.S.

  surgery

  Süssmilch, Johann

  “swarm intelligence,”

  Swiss Re

  syllogisms

  symmetry

  synchronous observations

  systems:

  communications

  deterministic

  energy states in

  friction in

  meaning of

  micro-states in

  non-linear

  physical

  scale of

  stable

  Tacitus

  Talmud

  Tambora eruption (1816)

  Tartaglia, Niccolò

  taxation

  telegraph

  telephone

  Tenenbaum, Joshua

  terrorism

  Theophrastus

  theorems

  Théorie analytique (Laplace)

  Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, The (von Neumann and Morgenstern)

  thermodynamics

  Thermopylae, battle of

  “The Run,”

  Thomas à Kempis

  Thorp, Edward

  three-card monte (Find the Lady)

  Thucydides

  time

  Time

  Timeform

  Times (London)

  time-series

  TIT FOR TAT program

  Tocqueville, Alexis de

  Tolstoy, Leo

  Torah

  Torricelli, Evangelista

  Traité du triangle arithmétique (Pascal)

  transport equation

  trembling hand principle

  Triangle

  triangles

  troposphere

  Truman, Harry S.

  truth:

  absolute

  clarity and

  divine

  experiential

  intrinsic

  legal

  probability and

  received

  relative

  scientific

  self-evident

  uncertainty of

  validity vs.

  t-test

  tuberculosis

  turbulence

  Turnbull, Colin

  Tversky, Amos

  Ulam, Stanislaw

  United States:

  agriculture in

  health care in

  legal system of

  United States: (cont.)

  military strategy of

  nuclear weapons of

  population of

  satellite program of

  weather forecasts in

  usury

  utility, utility function

  vaccines

  value:

  absolute

  monetary

  relative

  true

  van Riper, Paul

  variation, variables

  Vegetius, Flavius

  velocity

  Venus (dice throw)

  Venus (planet)

  Vespasian, Emperor of Rome

  Viagra

  Vietnam War

  Vinson, Donald

  Virgil

  vision

  Voie royale, La (Malraux)

  von Neumann, John

  Wakefield, Andrew

  Wald, Nicholas

  Waldegrave, Earl

  Walter of Henley

  War and Peace (Tolstoy)

  warfare

  alliances in

  art of

  beliefs in

  British strategy in

  casualties in

  deterrence in

  discipline in

  escalation of

  expectation in

  game theory and

  Greco-Roman sources on

  information in

  irrationality of

  leadership in

  mathematical analysis of

  medieval

  naval

  negotiation in

  non-linear nature of

  nuclear

  political aspect of

  prisoner’s dilemma in

  probability in

  randomness in

  simulations of (war games)

  strategy in

  tactics in

  by terrorists

  total

  unpredictability of

  U.S. strategy for

  utility in

  variables in

  victory in

  weather forecasts in

  Waterloo, battle of

  Weak Law of Large Numbers

  wealth:

  accumulation of

  gambling and

  landed (fixed)

  marginal utility of

  sudden

  Weather Book, The (Fitzroy)

  Weather Factory

  weather forecasts

  atmospheric pressure in

  barometric readings in

  British

  ch
aos theory and

  climate change and

  collective analysis of

  complexity of

  computers for

  data for

  density gradients in

  determinism in

  earth’s rotation and

  economic impact of

  ensemble prediction in

  error in

  “fronts” in

  global

  Greco-Roman sources on

  initial conditions in

  instruments for

  insurance industry and

  jet stream in

  long-range

  maps for

  mathematical basis of

  military importance of

  naval

  non-linear nature of

  predictions in

  probability in

  randomness in

  reports on

  risk assessment and

  short-range

  simulations of

  study of (meteorology)

  turbulence in

  U.S.

  variables in

  Weaver, Warren

  Weldon, W. F. R.

  Wellington, Arthur Wellesley, Duke of

  Wells, Charles Deville

  Westar VI satellite

  Wigmore, John Henry

  Wigram, Giles (pseud)

  Wilderness, battle of the

  Wilhelm II, Emperor of Germany

  Wilson, Sloan

  witch of Endor

  witnesses

  women

  Woo, Gordon

  word-frequency tests

  workers’ compensation

  Works and Days (Hesiod)

  World War I

  World War II,

  Wren, Christopher

  X-rays

  Yellowstone National Park

  Young, Arthur

  zero:

  absolute

  double

  as mathematical concept

  in roulette

  zero-sum games

  Zeus

  Zulu

  1 Anicius Manlius Severinus, last of the classical minds, whose desperate attempt to summarize all ancient knowledge was cut short by imprisonment, torture, and death at the hands of Theodoric the Ostrogoth.

  2 p(X) is your chance of loss: damnation, reincarnation or no afterlife at all.

 

 

 


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