by Bury, Robin;
But how many Protestants left willingly and how many constituted an enforced outflow from the 26 counties? It is impossible to establish the precise number of Protestants who were the subject of an enforced outflow during this period, as statistical information is not available. Nor is it possible to know how many left for ‘normal’ reasons associated with seeking employment and new opportunities, as they had done for a hundred years before 1926. However, we can make a reasonably credible estimate based on the limited available statistics. It seems certain that there was an exceptional major exodus of Protestants who left for reasons associated with intimidation, fear and concern about being unwanted in the new State. Kurt Bowen points out that ‘… the newly dominant culture of the majority created a sense of unease and marginality among the Irish Anglicans …’15
Looking at the available statistical information, we know that the number of Protestants in the British Army, Navy and Royal Irish Constabulary (RIC) in 1911 in the 26 counties amounted to 21,42216 with at most 8,000 dependents. The figure for dependents is based on the 1926 census estimate that of 100 men in the forces, 37 were dependents based on ‘the known proportion for Dublin city’,17 but we have to consider that outside Dublin and other cities, the number of dependents is likely to have been lower, as numbers of eligible Protestant women were lower than in Dublin. Also, ‘many [British soldiers] were married to Catholic women, with Catholic children’.18 Let us therefore estimate that at most 30 per cent, not 37 per cent, of the 21,422 Protestants in the armed forces were Protestant dependents, namely 6,420. We then arrive at a total of 21,422 plus 6,420, or approximately 28,000 Protestants, who left with the Forces and RIC. We can take it that some civil servants left after the Treaty. There was a total decline in Protestant civil service numbers of about 733 between 1911 and 1926. Of these perhaps 200 were born outside Ireland and returned to their countries post independence, with dependents making a total of 300. But it has to be said this is a tentative figure as no statistical information is available to inform us how many civil servants left the Free State 1922–26.
How many Protestants fell in the First World War? Some 27,400 people from the island fell, according to the Registrar General. However, the figure of about 40,000 has been put forward by Kevin Myers in his recently published book Ireland’s Great War.19 Sexton and O’Leary estimate that ‘about one half of the total was from the counties of the Republic’.20 Deducing that 13,700 fell from the 26 counties and that a third were ‘from the minority religious communities this suggests a war deaths figure of about 5,000’.21 I would argue, however, that this figure errs substantially on the high side. If over a third of those who fell from the 26 counties were Protestants, this is disproportionately high in relation to the 10 per cent of Protestants making up the population of the 26 counties. There is no evidence that Protestants enlisted in much greater numbers than other religious groups except in urban areas. Also, on a pro rata basis, it is likely that there were 7,200 Protestant fatalities from the island out of the 27,400 total (there were 1.16 million Protestants on the island of a total population of 4.4 million) and 66 per cent were 6 county Protestants. A figure of 2,800 southern Protestant fatalities seems realistic, and this may err on the high side. Ian d’Alton has asked in relation to the Protestants who fell: ‘how many of these who served died?22 We don’t know, but applying an average fatality rate to the participation number gives a figure of some 1700.’23 This is much lower than the figure given by Sexton and O’Leary but is probably too low in relation to the national average. Let us take a figure of 2,800.
Some 28,000 Protestants left with the British forces and administration, and at most 2,800 fell in the Great War, leaving approximately 75,000. Of this 75,000, we need to know how many were voluntary emigrants, but these statistics are not available. We know that Protestants emigrated voluntarily from 1901 to 1911, as they had done during the previous decade. There was a decrease in Church of Ireland Protestants of 7.9 per cent from 1891 to 1901 and 5.6 per cent between 1901 and 1911.24 So we can say the Church of Ireland population decreased by an average of 6.7 per cent in these two decades and the average for other religions was similar, namely 5.9 per cent.25 If we apply this 6.7 per cent figure to the total number of Protestants, excluding the British forces and Protestants of the RIC and Dublin Metropolitan Police, in 1911, namely 300,000, we get a decrease of 20,100. However, the intercensal period 1911–26 was a fifteen-year one, not the normal ten-year period, so account must be taken of an extra five years. The Great War accounts for four of these years when emigration figures are not available but we can state normal emigration was not possible and of those who enlisted, almost all who did not fall would have returned. Perhaps we can add 4,000 emigrants for the years 1914–18 and this is likely to be on the high side. A figure of 24,100 seems realistic for emigrants from 1911–1926.
The number of Protestants in 1911 was 327,000. Of these, some 28,000 left with the British Forces, 2,800 fell in the First World War and perhaps 300 civil servants born outside Ireland left with dependents after 1921, giving a total of 31,100. Add 24,100 who left as emigrants based on the percentage who emigrated 1891 to 1911 and this gives a total of 55,200.
We do not know how many Protestants died in the influenza epidemic of 1918–19. Based on correspondence with Ida Milne,26 who has recently written a PhD on this subject, a total of perhaps as many as 1,400 Protestants died in this epidemic.27 This must be a rough estimate, as Dr Milne made clear, because the religions of those who died are not given.
Lastly, the question of natural increase has been raised by various historians, most recently – and controversially – by David Fitzpatrick, who argued that ‘if any campaign of “ethnic cleansing” was attempted, its demographic impact was fairly minor’, and ‘the inexorable decline of southern Protestantism was mainly self-inflicted’.28 Fitzpatrick attributes the main cause of the Protestant decrease in numbers (he uses the word ‘malaise’) to ‘low fertility and nuptiality, exacerbated by losses through mixed marriage and conversion’.29 However, the evidence he produces does not seem to substantiate these arguments. The reports of the Irish Registrar General, 1923–27 show the marriage rate for Protestants was higher in 1920 than in 1913 and then fell rapidly.30 His study is based on the Methodists, who were only a small section of the Protestant population. Eugenio Biagini, in his review of Fitzpatrick’s book Descendancy Review: The Decline of Irish Protestantism, questioned the conclusion ‘that Protestant demographic decline had little to do with violence, or the threat of violence or other forms of sectarian behaviour by the Catholic majority. This may work for the Methodists, but Fitzpatrick does not convincingly establish whether their experience was representative of the Protestant community as a whole.’31 Biagini finds Fitzpatrick’s conclusions ‘somewhat startling’ and points out that Brian Walker, when ‘working with evidence from both Anglican and “nonconformist” communities … reach[es] different conclusions.’32 This was also the case with R.B. McDowell,33 Kent Fedorowich (see above), Patrick Buckland and Andrew Bielenberg, who probably underestimated the number of Protestants who were involuntary emigrants, as Biagini points out.
Fitzpatrick gives statistics that need challenging. He quotes a total of 1,953 deaths amongst Methodist members between 1911 and 1926. In the 1911 census, quoted by Fitzpatrick, there were 2,520 Methodists under the age of 9 in the 26 counties in 1911. That translates into some 3,300 to 3,500 Methodists under the age of 16 in 1911. To suggest that 3,300 young Methodists in 1911 were not sufficient on their own to keep natural change neutral or positive is hardly credible. In the words of Don:
His infertility case seems to depend on such a migration occurring if net outward migration is not to be considered the major factor of Methodist decline. But he presents no evidence to quantify how much inward Methodist migration there was and how it might have been distributed between the five triennia. His inward migrant numbers are hidden in his ‘new membership’ totals, but he does not break that total down into
the various sources of new membership – e.g. young Methodists graduating to full membership, immigrants, conversions from other faiths.
It is unlikely that many foreign Methodists viewed Ireland as an attractive place to go and live in the 1919–23 period. If there was inward migration of Methodists during 1911–26, it is more likely to have occurred in the 1911–14 period. But such an idea might undermine Fitzpatrick’s argument about emigration then being higher before the First World War than in the violent revolutionary period and with it his argument about the limited effect of violence on migration.
Similarly, we do not know what the balance was between conversions from and defections to other faiths. So, based on his own evidence, or lack of it, his plumping for infertility seems somewhat premature. It seems that most of Fitzpatrick’s extra recruits were from free association with Episcopalians, and this free association does not tally with his multiplier of 20 to estimate all Protestant behaviour from the behaviour of Methodists.
The reality is that from 1920–23, there was an exodus of Church of Ireland members induced by intimidation, fear of both loss of identity and being ostracized in an independent Irish state that was Anglophobic. The United Empire Loyalists in the USA at the end of the eighteenth century were in a similar situation, many leaving to go to Canada and Britain rather than remain in an independent USA. So with many southern Irish Protestants who left for new lives in countries which shared their allegiances. The synods of the Church of Ireland in this period make this clear, as do the protests by various bishops and the Church of Ireland Gazette. Examples of these statements and concern will be given in the next chapter.34
Protestant civilian decline, the sum of emigration and natural decline, was 6.5 per cent between 1901 and 1911. As emigration was not negative in this period, natural decline was in the order of 5 per 1,000 or less. So for natural decline to be the major reason for the decline of Protestants between 1911 and 1926, it would have had to jump from its usual 5 per 1,000 to 14 per 1,000 per annum. From 1936 to 1971, the natural decline was between 5.5 and 3.3 per 1,000. So if fertility was the main issue between 1911 and 1926, birth rates would have had to decrease to around a quarter of their usual level from 12 to 13 to 3 or 4 per 1,000 per annum. This is highly unlikely. Even if they had, this could not have led so quickly to such a large natural decrease. Also, Kurt Bowen points out that the decline in Anglican numbers post-1926 ‘was largely due to emigration’ and that their fertility rate was not low compared to European countries and America’ in 1946, when comparative figures became available.35
In her study of Protestants in Killala and Achonry, Miriam Moffitt concluded that ‘emigration was the principal cause of population decline in the years after 1922’.36 There is no evidence that this was not the case in the rest of the 26 counties. This was followed by a ‘lower or later rate of marriage and secondly a growing prevalence of mixed marriages, where the offspring were generally brought up outside the Church of Ireland.’37 This was ‘the national Protestant norm’ after 1922.38 Before 1922, low fertility was not the major cause of natural decrease.
Andrew Bielenberg argues that marriage rates among Protestants ‘had fully recovered after the First World War, slightly exceeding the levels achieved in 1911–12.’39 He concludes that Protestant marriage rates fell sharply in 1922 in the non-garrison counties due to an increase in Protestant emigration during the ‘period of the nationalist revolution’.40 It seems, therefore, that the exceptional decline in Protestant numbers was caused by emigration rather than the effects of lower nuptuality and fertility, which decreased after 1921. David Fitzpatrick’s Methodist figures show Methodist decline tracking emigration very closely throughout each triennium between 1911 and 1926.
Bielenberg quoted ‘a huge drop in the number of Protestant accountants’ countrywide. This had little to do with economic decline or even political change. In 1911 all sorts of book keepers and other clerical staff described themselves as accountants. In 1926, only Chartered Accountants could describe themselves as accountants. Net result was a huge drop in the number of accountants of all religions. Accountancy was one of the very few, maybe the only profession, where the percentage drop in Catholics was greater than that of Protestants. Furthermore, Bielenberg argues that ‘permanent emigration was not higher than normal between 1911 and 1920’. But what was ‘normal’? It would surely be logical to assume he meant emigration of the immediately preceding years – i.e. 1901–11. But then he estimates ‘normal/economic’ emigration for the entire 1911–26 period as being at the same rate or above 1926–36 rates. That is arguably illogical. To calculate the number who can be accounted for by economic or voluntary emigration, he uses a figure of their emigration in the next period, rather than reflecting what happened in the earlier period, as emigration of Protestants 1926–36 would have been lower as we know Protestant numbers had declined sharply by 1926.
Sexton and O’Leary estimate that the natural decrease of Protestants between 1911 and 1926 was 10,000. But this figure is based on the natural decrease of ‘the minority communities in 1926–36 and 1936–46’.41 There is no data ‘on age structure of the population by religious denomination … until 1926’ and Delaney thinks the estimate of Sexton and O’Leary ‘appears quite high’.42 The natural decrease from 1926 to 1946 is likely to have been quite high compared to that between 1911 and 1926, as Protestants were fewer in numbers and nuptiality was lower. Let us then take a high figure of 8,000 natural decrease instead.
To sum up:
Protestants who left with the British forces and RIC including dependents according to the 1926 census
28,000
Estimate of Protestants who fell in the First World War
2,800
Estimate of decrease in Protestant numbers due to emigration 1911–1926
24,100
Estimate of Protestants who died in the influenza epidemic post First World War
1,400
Estimate of Protestant public servants who left at the end of the union with Britain 1921
300
Estimate of natural decrease in Protestant numbers 1911–26
8,000
Total
64,600
As mentioned, the total decline in Protestant numbers between 1911 and 1926 was 106,456, so subtracting the above total of 64,600 generates a figure of 41,856 Protestants who were exceptional emigrants between 1911 and 1926. As I have indicated, this estimate is based on limited, insufficient figures. Delaney points out, ‘… establishing a direct causal link between sectarian intimidation or harassment and migration is problematic.’43 What we can say is that without doubt there was a sharp and exceptional exodus of Protestants between 1911 and 1926, some of which was caused by intimidation, some by apprehension following the end of the union and some due to Protestants concerned about their future in the new Catholic, Anglophobic Free State.
When the 1926 census is released, it will be possible to formulate a more accurate picture of the identity of the Protestants who left. The subject has become highly controversial, but there seems little doubt that some 20,000 people fled to the United Kingdom after 1921, as stated by Kent Fedorowich, and most of these were southern Protestants, as well as RIC-disbanded men with their families. Church of Ireland records – particularly annual synods held during 1921 and 1923 – unequivocally state that there was a major outflow of Church of Ireland people, as Brian Walker of Queen’s University has researched.44 There are some historians who are not persuaded that there was a major, exceptional involuntary exodus of Protestants between 1911 and 1926, but it does seem that the evidence is sufficiently overwhelming. Dr Bielenberg argues that the flight was largely for economic reasons, but does not take into account the lack of a corresponding exodus among Catholics for economic reasons.45 There certainly was Catholic emigration in this period, turning a substantial natural increase into a decline. But the various professions that Dr Bielenberg quotes for Protestant decline nearly all show an increase in Catholi
c numbers. In the words of Don Wood, ‘Between 1911 and 1926 Catholic emigration was at an historic low and Protestant emigration was at an historic high. How might economic factors drive out Protestants rather than Catholics, particularly when Protestants were in general better equipped to ride out a harsh economy.’46
In Dublin city and suburbs, the Protestant population fell by 31.3 per cent in 1911–26, by 50 per cent in Cork city, by 50 per cent in Limerick and 45 per cent in Waterford. In 62 towns with populations of between 1,500 and 5,000 inhabitants, there was a decrease of 47 per cent.47 Some of these decreases were, however, largely accounted for by the departure of the armed forces, particularly in Dublin and Cork and to a lesser extent in Limerick and Waterford. In many other counties where there was no British Army presence, though, there was still a significant drop in the Protestant population.
It is unclear where these Protestants went. In the new border counties of Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan, there was an expectation that a significant number of Protestants would go to Northern Ireland. The Rt Revd Dr Moore, Bishop of Kilmore diocese, in his address to the Diocesan Synod in July 1923, referred to the previous twelve months, when ‘one of the saddest features of the situation is that so many of our communion have been driven from the country’.48 Moore did not say where they had gone. His Cavan/Roscommon diocese bordered on Co. Fermanagh, yet the Church of Ireland population also declined slightly between 1911 and 1926 in the latter county.49 In the border counties of Tyrone and Derry, the Protestant population also declined.50 However, Protestant farmers from the south did buy up land in Fermanagh between 1920 and 1925.51 In Northern Ireland as a whole, the 1926 census ‘estimated that roughly 24,000 immigrants from the Irish Free State had taken up residence in the preceding fifteen years’.52 The majority of these immigrants were registered as members of the Church of Ireland, ‘with east Ulster accounting for the largest share of the settlement.’53 Most went to Belfast where employment opportunities were reasonable. It seems that of the others, most went to England.