by Adam Tooze
20. J. Johnson, Priests of Prosperity: How Central Bankers Transformed the Postcommunist World (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2016).
21. Blustein, Off Balance, 1–12.
22. “Simulating Financial Instability,” Conference on Stress Testing and Financial Crisis Simulation Exercises, European Central Bank, July 12–13, 2007, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/simulatingfinancialinstability200809en.pdf?f6427026bcf400e849ff88415b1386ba.
23. Blustein, Off Balance, 67–92.
24. “Minister Rinkēvičs: The Foreign Ministry Building Is a Touchstone for the Nation’s History,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia, November 15, 2013.
25. T. Rostoks, “Latvia’s Foreign Policy—Living Through Hard Times,” Diplomaatia (blog) (April 2010), https://www.diplomaatia.ee/en/article/latvias-foreign-policy-living-through-hard-times/.
26. R. Sakwa, The Crisis of Russian Democracy: The Dual State, Factionalism and the Medvedev Succession (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010); and R. Sakwa, Putin and the Oligarchs: The Khodorkovsky-Yukos Affair (London: I. B. Tauris, 2014).
27. P. Hanson, “The Economic Development of Russia: Between State Control and Liberalization” (ISPI Working Paper 32, October 2008).
28. Johnson, “Forbidden Fruit.”
29. F. Hill and C. G. Gaddy, Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin (Washington, DC: Brookings, 2013), chapter 5.
30. P. Anderson, “Incommensurate Russia,” New Left Review 94 (July–August 2015).
31. World Bank in Russia, Russia Economic Report 17 (November 2008), table 1.9.
32. A. E. Stent, The Limits of Partnership (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014); and Hill and Gaddy, Mr. Putin.
33. P. Gallis, NATO and Energy Security, CRS Report for Congress (August 15, 2007).
34. “Kudrin Has Reservations on Dollar,” Moscow Times, April 24, 2006.
35. Johnson, “Forbidden Fruit.”
36. The text of Putin’s speech is at “Putin’s Prepared Remarks at 43rd Munich Conference on Security Policy,” Washington Post, February 12, 2007.
37. “At $US250 a Barrel, We’re Headed for Meltdown,” Sydney Morning Herald, June 21, 2008.
38. A. E. Kramer, “As Gazprom Goes, So Goes Russia,” New York Times, May 11, 2008.
39. “Putin’s Prepared Remarks.”
40. D. Trenin, “Russia Leaves the West,” Foreign Affairs 85 (July/August 2006), 87.
41. “Gates Dismisses Putin Remarks as Blunt Spy Talk,” Reuters, February 12, 2007.
42. “Migration in Europe: Case Studies: Bulgaria and Romania,” CRCE 2010 Colloquium, 2010.
43. “Country report: Lugoj, Romania,” Ungersteel, http://www.ungersteel.com/unger/download/UngerSteelGroup_Lugoj-property_Exposee.pdf.
44. Europe Real Estate Yearbook (The Hague: Europe Real Estate Publishers, 2008), 362.
45. “ING Real Estate Buys in Germany and Romania,” PropertyEU (October 9, 2007).
46. G. Toal, Near Abroad: Putin, the West and the Contest over Ukraine and the Caucasus (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017).
47. “The President’s News Conference with President Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine in Kiev, Ukraine,” The American Presidency Project (April 1, 2008), http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=76910.
48. S. Erlanger and S. L. Myers, “NATO Allies Oppose Bush on Georgia and Ukraine,” New York Times, April 3, 2008.
49. Ibid.
50. C. Rice, No Higher Honor: A Memoir of My Years in Washington (New York: Broadway Books, 2011), 422.
51. J. Mearsheimer, “How the West Caused the Ukraine Crisis,” Foreign Affairs (August 2014).
52. R. Youngs, Europe’s Eastern Crisis (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2017), 50–64.
53. R. Peston, “Russia ‘Planned Wall Street Bear Raid,’” BBC News, March 17, 2014.
54. T. Vorobyova, “Russia Will Not Dump Fannie, Freddie Debt: FinMin,” Reuters, August 20, 2008.
55. Peston, “Russia ‘Planned Wall Street Bear Raid.’”
56. For this train of events, see the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Conflict in Georgia Report (September 2009).
57. Varvara, “President Medvedev: Events in South Ossieta Show That Russia Is a Force to Be Reckoned With,” Voices from Russia (September 6, 2008), https://02varvara.wordpress.com/2008/09/06/president-medvedev-events-in-south-ossetia-show-that-russia-is-a-force-to-be-reckoned-with/.
58. “Georgian War Exposes Rift with Russians,” Deutsche Welle, August 15, 2008.
59. A. Rahr, Putin nach Putin (Munich: Universitas-Verlag, 2008), 269.
60. “Press Conference by President of France Nicolas Sarkozy” (United Nations press conference, September 23, 2008), http://www.un.org/press/en/2008/080923_Sarkozy.doc.htm.
CHAPTER 6: “THE WORST FINANCIAL CRISIS IN GLOBAL HISTORY”
1. The mechanism described brilliantly for the United States by A. Mian and A. Sufi, House of Debt: How They (and You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2014), applies generally.
2. For a narrative of the main bank failures, see Milne, Fall of the House of Credit, 195–256.
3. DealBook, “UBS’s Hedge Fund: A Post-Mortem,” New York Times, June 4, 2007.
4. T. Buck, “National Reputation Hangs on IKB Rescue,” Financial Times, August 2, 2007.
5. Roche, Histoire Secrète.
6. “BNP Paribas Suspends Funds Because of Subprime Problems,” New York Times, August 9, 2007.
7. Munchau, The Meltdown Years, 102.
8. Irwin, The Alchemists, 2.
9. L. Elliott, “Credit Crisis—How It All Began,” Guardian, August 4, 2008.
10. H. S. Scott, Connectedness and Contagion: Protecting the Financial System from Panics (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2016).
11. H. S. Shin, “Reflections on Northern Rock: The Bank Run That Heralded the Global Financial Crisis,” Jounal of Economic Perspectives 23 (2009), 101–119.
12. “Lessons of the Fall,” Economist, October 18, 2007.
13. United States Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report (New York: PublicAffairs, 2011), 283.
14. The significance of runs in triparty repo, bilateral repo and ABCP markets is debated between G. Gorton and A. Metrick, “Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo,” Journal of Financial Economics 104, no. 3 (2012), 425–451; G. B. Gorton, Misunderstanding Financial Crises: Why We Don’t See Them Coming (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012), 39–40; and A. Krishnamurthy, S. Nagel and D. Orlov, “Sizing Up Repo,” Journal of Finance 69, no. 6 (December 2014), 2381–2417.
15. G. B. Gorton and A. Metrick, “Who Ran on Repo?” (NBER Working Paper 18455, 2012); T. Adrian and H. Y. Shin, “The Shadow Banking System: Implications for Financial Regulation,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports 382 (July 1, 2009).
16. Gordon and Metrick, “Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo.”
17. L. Ball, “The Fed and Lehman Brothers: Introduction and Summary” (NBER Working Paper 22410, 2016).
18. “Liquidity Management at Lehman Brothers,” Lehman Brothers, July 2008.
19. A. Copeland, A. Martin and M. Walker, “Repo Runs: Evidence from the Tri-Party Repo Market,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports 506 (July 2011).
20. T. V. Dang, G. Gorton and B. Holmstrom, “Haircuts and Repo Chains,” Working Paper, October 17, 2013.
21. Ball, “The Fed and Lehman Brothers,” 37.
22. The authoritative account of the AIG disaster is Congressional Oversight Panel, “The AIG Rescue, Its Impact on Markets, and the Government’s Exit Strategy,” June Oversight Report (June 10, 2010).
23. G. Morgenson and L. Story, “Testy Conflict with Goldman Helped Push A.I.G. to Ed
ge,” New York Times, February 6, 2010.
24. Ibid.; https://fcic-static.law.stanford.edu/cdn_media/fcic-testimony/2010-0701-Goldman-AIG-Collateral-Call-timeline.pdf.
25. P. E. McCabe, “The Cross Section of Money Market Fund Risks and Financial Crises” (FEDS Working Paper 2010-51, September 12, 2010).
26. M. T. Kacperczyk and P. Schnabl, “How Safe Are Money Market Funds?,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 128 (2013), 1073–1122.
27. Board of Trustees of the Primary Fund-In Liquidation, “Additional Information Regarding Primary Fund-In Liquidation,” September 23, 2014.
28. Gorton and Metrick, “Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo.”
29. Goldman’s self-justificatory official narrative hastens to add that this was an artifact of self-imposed new accounting rules. The next day the pool rebounded to $89 billion, but even this was 20 percent down on the level only days earlier. http://www.goldmansachs.com/media-relations/in-the-news/archive/response-to-fcic-folder/gs-liquidity.pdf.
30. P. Krugman, End This Depression Now! (New York: W. W. Norton, 2012), 115.
31. V. Ivashina and E. Scharfstein, “Bank Lending During the Financial Crisis of 2008,” Journal of Financial Economics 97 (2010), 319–338.
32. P. McGuire and G. von Peter, “The US Dollar Shortage in Global Banking and the International Policy Response” (BIS Working Paper 291, October 2009).
33. Transcript of the FMOC meeting, September 16, 2008.
34. A. R. Sorkin, Too Big to Fail: The Inside Story of How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial System—and Themselves (New York: Penguin, 2010), 1–2.
35. https://www.juliusbaer.com/files/user_upload/your-private-bank/investment-excellence/research/european-wealth-report/documents/Wealth_Report_Europe.pdf.
36. ING Economic and Financial Analysis, “Household Wealth in Europe: Post-Crisis Recovery Leaves Big Differences Between Countries and Households,” January 18, 2016.
37. R. Lydon and T. McIndoe-Calder, “The Great Irish (De)Leveraging 2005–14,” Irish Economic Analysis Division Central Bank of Ireland, March 2017.
38. P. K. Brooks, “IMF Survey: Households Hit Hard by Wealth Losses,” World Economic Outlook: IMF Research Department, June 24, 2009.
39. US Department of Treasury, “The Financial Crisis Response: In Charts,” April 2012.
40. “The Cost of the Crisis: $20 Trillion and Counting,” Better Markets, July 2015.
41. A. Bangalore, “US Housing Market: Share of Underwater Homes Trending Down,” Market Oracle, July 13, 2012, http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35579.html.
42. E. Wolff, “The Asset Price Meltdown and the Wealth of the Middle Class,” US2010: Discover America in a New Century, May 2013.
43. State of Working America, “African Americans,” Economic Policy Institute (ND), http://www.stateofworkingamerica.org/fact-sheets/african-americans./
44. D. G. Bocian, W. Li and K. Ernst, “Foreclosures by Race and Ethnicity: The Demographics of a Crisis,” Center for Responsible Lending Research, June 18, 2010.
45. M. Hall, K. Crowder and A. Spring, “Neighborhood Foreclosures, Racial/Ethnic Transitions, and Residential Segregation,” American Sociological Review 80.3 (2015), 526–549.
46. Mian and Sufi, House of Debt, 38.
47. Brooks, “IMF Survey.”
48. “The Bankruptcy of General Motors: A Giant Falls,” Economist, June 4, 2009.
49. K. Hill, D. Menk, J. Cregger and M. Schultz, Contribution of the Automotive Industry to the Economies of All Fifty States and the United States (Ann Arbor, MI: Center for Automotive Research, 2015).
50. “The Crisis in the Car Industry: No Opel, No Hope,” Economist, March 5, 2009.
51. B. Deilus, “Economic Performance of Mexico and South Korea After 2008 Crisis” (2015), http://www.boeckler.de/pdf/v_2015_10_23_desilus.pdf; M. A. Villarreal, The Mexican Economy After the Global Financial Crisis, Congressional Research Service, September 16, 2010.
52. J. Sidaoui, M. Ramos-Francia and G. Cuadra, “The Global Financial Crisis and Policy Response in Mexico,” (BIS Papers 54, 2010).
53. “75 Years of Toyota,” http://www.toyota-global.com/company/history_of_toyota/75years/index.html.
54. M. Fackler, “Toyota Expects Its First Loss in 70 Years,” New York Times, December 22, 2008.
55. M. Sommer, “Why Has Japan Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession?,” IMF Staff Position Note, March 18, 2009.
56. K. Otsuka, “Resurgent Hitachi Goes Global After Painful Reforms,” Japan Times, May 28, 2015.
57. “Japan’s Electronics Giants: Unplugged,” Economist, February 5, 2009.
58. R. Baldwin, ed., The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects (VoxEU, 2009), 58, http://voxeu.org/content/great-trade-collapse-causes-consequences-and-prospects.
59. K. Hopkins, “German Economy Suffered Worst Postwar Slump in 2009,” Guardian, January 13, 2010.
60. H. Comert and S. Colak, “The Impacts of the Global Crisis on the Turkish Economy and Policy Responses,” Economic Research Center, December 2014.
61. M. Yalçin, “Evaluation of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis’ Effects on Turkish Economy: Is It Tangential?,” May 15, 2012, https://www.academia.edu/1564330/Effect_of_2008_Global_Financial_Crisis_over_Turkey.
62. Baldwin, Great Trade Collapse.
63. H. Hakimian and N. Dhillon, “Global Economic Crisis: A Catalyst for Change in Saudi Arabia?,” Brookings Institution, February 25, 2009.
64. R. Wigglesworth, “Gulf Bank Chief Quits as Kuwait Crisis Deepens,” Financial Times, October 28, 2008.
65. A. Hanieh, Capitalism and Class in the Gulf Arab States (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011).
66. P. Lewis, “Dubai’s Six-Year Building Boom Grinds to Halt as Financial Crisis Takes Hold,” Guardian, February 13, 2009.
67. International Labour Office, “Global Employment Trends 2011: The Challenge of a Jobs Recovery.”
68. Clark, Hard Times, 41–67.
69. International Labour Office, “Global Employment Trends 2011.”
70. M. Holder, “Unemployment in New York City During the Recession and Early Recovery: Young Black Men Hit the Hardest,” Community Service Society, December 2010.
71. F. Cai and K. W. Chan, “The Global Economic Crisis and Unemployment in China,” Eurasian Geography and Economics 50, no. 5 (2009), 513–531. For a contrasting effort to estimate global unemployment see International Labour Office, “Global Employment Trends 2011” (Geneva: ILO, 2011).
72. P. Krugman, “The Great Recession Versus the Great Depression,” New York Times, March 20, 2009.
73. B. Eichengreen and K. O’Rourke, “Tale of Two Depressions: What Do the New Data Tell Us?,” CEPR, March 8, 2010.
74. Sorkin, Too Big to Fail, 417.
75. M. Taibbi, “Secrets and Lies of the Bailout,” Rolling Stone, January 4, 2013.
76. A. Sorkin, D. Henriques, E. Andrews and J. Nocera, “As Credit Crisis Spiraled, Alarm Led to Action,” New York Times, October 1, 2008.
77. C. Borio, “Capital Flows and the Current Account: Taking Financing (More) Seriously,” (BIS Working Paper 525, 2015).
78. Bernanke, The Courage to Act, 386.
79. M. Egan, “2008: Worse Than the Great Depression?,” CNN Money, August 27, 2014.
80. Bernanke, Courage to Act, 386, 561.
81. Ibid., 561.
82. Geithner, Stress Test, 200.
83. “Securitization” rhetorics as strategies of government have been productively analyzed by the so-called Copenhagen school of security studies led by B. Barzun and O. Waeve. For critical reviews see H. Stritzel, “Towards a Theory of Securitization: Copenhagen and Beyond,” European Journal of International Relations 13.3 (2007), 357–383; and M. McDonald, “Securitization and the Construction of Security,” European Journal of
International Relations 14.4 (2008), 563–587.
84. Sorkin, Too Big to Fail, 417.
85. J. Gerth, “Paulson Book: Behind the Scenes, GE’s Top Exec Confided Credit Woes,” ProPublica, February 5, 2010; and B. Condon and N. Vardi, “Harvard: The Inside Story of Its Finance Meltdown,” Forbes, February 26, 2009.
86. The question put most forcefully by Mian and Sufi, House of Debt.
CHAPTER 7: BAILOUTS
1. M. Wolf, “The Rescue of Bear Sterns Marks Liberalisation’s Limit,” Financial Times, March 25, 2008.
2. For contrasting comparisons, see P. Culpepper and R. Raphael, “Structural Power and Bank Bailouts in the United Kingdom and the United States,” Politics and Society 42 (2014), 427–454; C. Woll, The Power of Inaction: Bank Bailouts in Comparison (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2014); and the symposium on financial power in Accounting, Economics and Law 6, no. 1 (2016).
3. Swiss National Bank, Financial Stability Report (2009); and Zaki, UBS, 184–190.
4. T. Geithner, “Reflections on the Asian Financial Crises,” Trends in Asian Financial Sectors Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, June 20, 2007.
5. J. Schildbach, “Bank Performance in the US and Europe: An Ocean Apart,” Deutsche Bank, September 26, 2013.
6. US Department of the Treasury, “The Financial Crisis Response: In Charts,” April 2012.
7. On the legitimacy and illegitimacy of adhocracy see P. A. Wallach, To the Edge: Legality, Legitimacy, and the Responses to the 2008 Financial Crisis (Washington, DC: Brookings, 2015).
8. Bernanke, Courage to Act, 432.
9. F. Norris, “3 Major Banks Offer Plan to Calm Debts in Housing,” New York Times, October 16, 2007.
10. D. Berman, “A Bailout for Citigroup?,” Deal Journal (blog), Wall Street Journal, October 14, 2007.
11. A. Barr, “HSBC’s Bailout Puts Pressure on Citi, ‘Superfund,’” MarketWatch, November 26, 2007; D. Wilchin, “HSBC Is Not Interested in SIV Bailout Fund,” Reuters, November 26, 2007; and S. Jones, “SIV Watch: Superfund Not So Super,” Financial Times, December 6, 2007.
12. I. Fallon, Black Horse Ride: The Inside Story of Lloyds and the Banking Crisis (London: Robson Press, 2015).
13. A. Nolting, “German Banking Gets Boost from Mega-Merger,” Der Spiegel, September 1, 2008.