by Adam Tooze
34. J. Steele, “I’m a Young President, Don’t Try to Label Me,” Guardian, July 2, 2008.
35. B. Benoit, “Germany Sees an End to US Hegemony,” Financial Times, September 26, 2008.
36. L. Phillips, “US Laissez-Faire to Battle European ‘Social Market’ at G20,” EUObserver, November 14, 2008, https://euobserver.com/foreign/27114.
37. Interview with author.
CHAPTER 9: EUROPE’S FORGOTTEN CRISIS: EASTERN EUROPE
1. B. Setser, “Where Is My Swap Line? And Will the Diffusion of Financial Power Balkanize the Global Response to a Broadening Crisis?,” October 18, 2008, https://www.cfr.org/blog/where-my-swap-line-and-will-diffusion-financial-power-balkanize-global-response-broadening.
2. FOMC meeting, October 28–29, 2008.
3. M. J. Burrows and J. Harris, “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis,” Washington Quarterly 32, no. 2 (2009), 27–38.
4. Conférence de presse, November 14, 2008, http://discours.vie-publique.fr/notices/087003590.html.
5. V. Feklyunina and S. White, “Discourses of ‘Krizis’: Economic Crisis in Russia and Regime Legitimacy,” Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics 27 (2011), 385–406.
6. N. Robinson, “Russia’s Response to Crisis: The Paradox of Success,” https://www.academia.edu/2125038/Russia_s_Response_to_Crisis_The_Paradox_of_Success?auto=download.
7. S. Guriev and A. Tsyvinski, “Challenges Facing the Russian Economy After the Crisis,” in A. Åslund, S. Guriev and A. Kuchins, eds., Russia After the Global Economic Crisis (New York: Columbia University, 2010), 9–38.
8. L. Harding, “Russia’s Oligarchs Lose 70% of Their Wealth in a Year,” Guardian, April 17, 2009.
9. World Bank in Russia, Russia Economic Report 18 (March 2009).
10. A. E. Kramer, “A $50 Billion Bailout in Russia Favors the Rich and Connected,” New York Times, October 30, 2008.
11. S. Johnson, “The Quiet Coup,” Atlantic, May 1, 2009, 1.
12. C. G. Gaddy and B. W. Ickes, “Russia After the Global Financial Crisis,” Eurasian Geography and Economics 51, no. 3 (2010), 281–311.
13. J. Conrad, “Russia in the Financial Crisis and Beyond,” Deutsche Bank Research, December 11, 2009.
14. “The Financial Crisis in Russia,” Stratfor, October 28, 2008, https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/financial-crisis-russia.
15. World Bank in Russia, Russian Economic Report 17 (November 2008).
16. S. Crowley, “Monotowns and the Political Economy of Industrial Restructuring in Russia,” Post-Soviet Affairs 32, no. 5 (2016), 397–422.
17. J. Jungmann and B. Sagemann, eds., Financial Crisis in Eastern Europe: Road to Recovery (Wiesbaden: Gabler, 2011), 433.
18. M. Korostikov, “Russia and China: Against the Storm,” Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics 27, no. 3-4 (2011), 605–631.
19. Gaddy and Ickes, “Russia After the Global Financial Crisis,” 281–311.
20. Russian Analytical Digest 63 (July 7, 2009), http://www.laender-analysen.de/russland/rad/pdf/Russian_Analytical_Digest_63.pdf.
21. S. Fortescue, “Putin in Pikalevo: PR or Watershed?,” Australian Slavonic and East European Studies 23, nos. 1–2 (2010), 19–38.
22. Sakwa, The Crisis of Russian Democracy, 332–341.
23. D. Medvedev, “Go Russia!,” September 10, 2009, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/5413.
24. D. Medvedev, “Speech at Meeting of Council of Legislators,” December 28, 2009, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/6497.
25. P. P. Pan, “Medvedev Calls for Economic Changes,” Washington Post, November 13, 2009.
26. For a salutary stress on diversity across the region see E. Berglöf, Y. Korniyenko, J. Zettelmeyer and A. Plekhanov, “Understanding the Crisis in Emerging Europe,” (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (Working Paper No. 109, 2009).
27. Danske Bank Research, “Euro Area: Exposure to the Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe,” February 24, 2009.
28. EBRD Transition Report 2015–2016 (London: EBRD, 2016), 12.
29. I. Kaminska, “The EE Mortgage,” Financial Times, October 24, 2008.
30. L. Thomas Jr., “Politics Add to Economic Turmoil in Hungary,” New York Times, April 1, 2009.
31. FOMC meeting, October 28–29, 2008.
32. Ibid.
33. S. Vallée, “Behind Closed Doors at the ECB,” Financial Times, March 30, 2010.
34. R. A. Auer, S. Kraenzlin and D. Liebeg, “How Do Austrian Banks Fund Their Swiss Franc Exposure?,” Austrian National Bank Financial Stability Report (2012), 54–61.
35. L. Andor, “Hungary in the Financial Crisis: A (Basket) Case Study,” Journal of Contemporary Central and Eastern Europe 17, no. 3 (2009): 285–296; L. Calmfors et al., “The Hungarian Crisis,” EEAG Report on the European Economy (2012), 115–130; and T. Egedy, “The Effects of Global Economic Crisis in Hungary,” Hungarian Geographical Bulletin 61, no. 2 (2012), 155–173.
36. S. Lütz and M. Kranke, “The European Rescue of the Washington Consensus? EU and IMF Lending to Central and Eastern European Countries,” Review of International Political Economy 21, no. 2 (2014), 310–338.
37. “Days of New Flats, Cars and Generous State Benefits Over as Currency Collapses,” Guardian, October 28, 2008.
38. J. A. Cordero, “The IMF’s Stand-by Arrangements and the Economic Downturn in Eastern Europe: The Cases of Hungary, Latvia, and Ukraine,” CEPR, September 2009.
39. IMF, “Review of Recent Crisis Programs,” September 14, 2009.
40. L. Barber, C. Giles, S. Wagstyl and T. Barber, “Zoellick Urges EU to Help East Europe,” Financial Times, February 18, 2009.
41. “Keep Calm and Carry On,” Economist, February 19, 2009.
42. A. Evans-Pritchard, “Failure to Save East Europe Will Lead to Worldwide Meltdown,” Telegraph, February 14, 2009. Z. Kudrna and D. Gabor, “The Return of Political Risk: Foreign-Owned Banks in Emerging Europe,” Europe-Asia Studies 65(3) (2013), 548–66.
43. Z. Darvas, “The EU’s Role in Supporting Crisis-Hit Countries in Central and Eastern Europe,” Bruegel Policy Contribution No. 2009/17 2009.
44. E. Hugh, “Let the East into the Eurozone Now!,” February 20, 2009, http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/let-the-east-into-the-eurozone-now/.
45. S. Wagstyl, “IMF Urges Eastern EU to Adopt Euro,” Financial Times, April 5, 2009.
46. R. De Haas et al., “Foreign Banks and the Vienna Initiative: Turning Sinners into Saints?” (IMF Working Paper 12-117, 2012). The effectiveness of the initiative is suggested in Berglöf, Korniyenko, Zettelmeyer and Plekhanov, “Understanding the Crisis,” who find that cross-border bank ownership helped to stabilize lending.
47. EBRD, EIB and World Bank, Final Report on the Joint IFI Action Plan (March 2011). According to officials of the German finance ministry they undertook action at a national level to hold the German lenders in line.
48. Blustein, Off Balance, Kindle location 1816.
49. C. Dougherty, “Sweden Aids Bailout of Baltic Nations,” New York Times, March 12, 2009.
50. “Latvia: Will It Start a Dangerous Domino Effect?,” May 6, 2009, http://www.economonitor.com/analysts/author/mstokes/.
51. L. Nyberg, “The Baltic Region in the Shadow of the Financial Crisis,” BIS Review 105 (2009); and Y. Koyama, “Economic Crisis in the Baltic States: Focusing on Latvia,” Economic Annals 55, no. 186 (2010), 89–114.
52. A. Evans-Pritchard, “Latvian Debt Crisis Shakes Eastern Europe,” Telegraph, June 3, 2009.
53. O. J. Blanchard, M. Griffiths and B. Gruss, “Boom, Bust, Recovery: Forensics of the Latvia Crisis,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2 (2013), 325–388.
54. Darvas, “The EU’s Role.”
55. J. Sommers and C. Woolfson, The Contradic
tions of Austerity: The Socio-Economic Costs of the Neoliberal Baltic Model (New York: Routledge, 2014).
56. J. Brundsen, “Brexit Gives Valdis Dombrovskis Big Sway over Banks,” Financial Times, June 30, 2016.
57. D. Arel, “Ukraine Since the War in Georgia,” Survival 50, no. 6 (2008), 15–25.
58. A. Mayhew, “The Economic and Financial Crisis: Impacts on an Emerging Economy-Ukraine” (SEI Working Paper 115, 2010).
59. A. Åslund, “Ukraine: Worst Hit by the Financial Crisis,” George Washington University, February 23, 2009, https://www2.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/docs/aslund_ukraine_23feb09.pdf.
60. A. Åslund, “Ukraine’s Financial Crisis, 2009,” Eurasian Geography and Economics 50, no. 4 (2009), 371–386.
61. R. Connolly and N. Copsey, “The Great Slump of 2008–9 and Ukraine’s Integration with the European Union,” Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics 27, no. 3-4 (2011), 541–565.
62. K. Westphal, “Russian Gas, Ukrainian Pipelines, and European Supply Security: Lessons of the 2009 Controversies,” SWP research paper, September 11, 2009.
63. T. Alloway, “Domino Theory, Eastern Europe Edition,” Financial Times, February 16, 2009.
CHAPTER 10: THE WIND FROM THE EAST: CHINA
1. A. Tsygankov, “What Is China to Us? Westernizers and Sinophiles in Russian Foreign Policy,” Russia.Nei.Visions 45 December 2009.
2. D. W. Drezner, “Bad Debts: Assessing China’s Financial Influence in Great Power Politics,” International Security 34, no. 2 (2009), 7–45.
3. “Fannie, Freddie Failure Would Be World ‘Catastrophe,’” Bloomberg, August 22, 2008, reported by https://mises.org/blog/fannie-freddie-failure-would-be-world-catastrophe.
4. J. Fallows, “Be Nice to the Countries That Lend You Money,” Atlantic, December 2008, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2008/12/be-nice-to-the-countries-that-lend-you-money/307148/.
5. Drezner, “Bad Debts.”
6. W. M. Morrison and M. Labonte, “China’s Holdings of US Securities: Implications for the US Economy,” Current Politics and Economics of Northern and Western Asia 20, no. 3 (2011), 507.
7. “A Truer Picture of China’s Export Machine,” McKinsey Quarterly (September 2010), http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/a-truer-picture-of-chinas-export-machine.
8. “The Decoupling Debate,” Economist, March 6, 2008.
9. J. Yardley, “China to Streamline Government into ‘Super Ministries,’” New York Times, March 11, 2008.
10. S. Minggao and H. Yin, “Macroreview: Crisis Tests Strength of China’s Export Muscle,” http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-08-19/110227250.html.
11. For this rough figure, see S. Fardoust, J. Yifu and L. X. Luo, “Demystifying China’s Fiscal Stimulus,” World Bank (Policy Research Working Paper 6221, 2012). For a more detailed treatment, see C. Fang and K. Wing Chan, “The Global Economic Crisis and Unemployment in China,” Eurasian Geography and Economics 50, no, 5 (2009), 513–531.
12. B. Naughton, “Understanding the Chinese Stimulus Package,” China Leadership Monitor 28, no. 2 (2009), 1–12.
13. D. Schmidt and S. Heilmann, “Dealing with Economic Crisis in 2008–2009,” China Analysis 77 (January 2010), www.chinapolitik.de; see also http://knowledge.ckgsb.edu.cn/2015/12/14/china/the-party-planners-five-year-plans-in-china/.
14. For this and the following quotes, see Naughton, “Understanding the Chinese Stimulus Package,” 1–12.
15. C. Sorace, “China’s Vision for Developing Sichuan’s Post-Earthquake Countryside: Turning Unruly Peasants into Grateful Urban Citizens,” China Quarterly 218 (2014), 404–427.
16. J. Kirkegaard, “China’s Experimental Pragmatics of ‘Scientific Development’ in Wind Power: Algorithmic Struggles over Software in Wind Turbines,” Copenhagen Journal of Asian Studies 34, no. 1 (2016), 5–24.
17. H. Yu, “Universal Health Insurance Coverage for 1.3 Billion People: What Accounts for China’s Success?,” Health Policy 119, no. 9 (September 2015): 1145–1152.
18. Naughton, “Understanding,” 8.
19. G. Ollivier, J. Sondhi and N. Zhou, “High-Speed Railways in China: A Look at Construction Costs,” World Bank China Transport Topics 9 (July 2014).
20. So much so that Obama’s enthusiasm attracted critical attention. “Obama Needs to Get Over His China Envy,” Baltimore Sun, November 5, 2011, http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/bal-obama-needs-to-get-over-his-china-envy-20111104-story.html.
21. S. Breslin, “China and the Crisis: Global Power, Domestic Caution and Local Initiative,” Contemporary Politics 17, no. 2 (2011), 185–200.
22. IMF, “Survey: China’s Difficult Rebalancing Act,” September 2007, http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/socar0912a.
23. A. Wheatley, “Calculating the Coming Slowdown in China,” New York Times, May 23, 2011.
24. “China Seeks Stimulation,” Economist, November 10, 2008.
25. Fardoust, Yifu and Luo, “Demystifying China’s Fiscal Stimulus.”
26. Naughton, “Understanding,” 10.
27. Fardoust, Yifu and Luo, “Demystifying China’s Fiscal Stimulus,” figure 2.
28. B. Naughton, “Reading the NPC: Post-Crisis Economic Dilemmas of the Chinese Leadership,” China Leadership Monitor 32 (2010), 1–10.
29. Naughton, “Understanding,” 3.
30. A. Szamosszegi and C. Kyle, An Analysis of State-Owned Enterprises and State Capitalism in China, US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (October 2011), 1–116.
31. C. E. Walter and F. J. T. Howie, Red Capitalism (Singapore: Wiley, 2012).
32. N. Lardy, Sustaining China’s Economic Growth (New York: Columbia University Press, 2012).
33. A. Collier, Shadow Banking and the Rise of Capitalism in China (Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017).
34. N.-L. Sum, “A Cultural Political Economy of Crisis Recovery: (Trans-) National Imaginaries of ‘BRIC’ and Subaltern Groups in China,” Economy and Society 42 no. 4 (2013), 543–570.
35. Schmidt and Heilmann, “Dealing with Economic Crisis in 2008–2009.”
36. C. Wong, “The Fiscal Stimulus Program and Problems of Macroeconomic Management in China,” 2011, https://www.oecd.org/gov/budgeting/48143862.pdf; and C. Wong, “The Fiscal Stimulus Programme and Public Governance Issues in China,” OECD Journal on Budgeting 2011/3, https://www.oecd.org/gov/budgeting/49633058.pdf.
37. Fardoust, Yifu and Luo, “Demystifying China’s Fiscal Stimulus.”
38. D. Shambaugh, “Coping with a Conflicted China,” Washington Quarterly 34, no. 1 (2011), 7–27.
39. G. Qian, “How Should We Read China’s ‘Discourse of Greatness,’” China Media Project, http://cmp.hku.hk/2010/02/23/4565/ (accessed December 8, 2010).
40. “In Wake of Stronger Growth, More Americans and Europeans Say US Is Top Economic Power,” July 2, 2015, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/07/02/in-wake-of-stronger-growth-more-americans-and-europeans-say-u-s-is-top-economic-power/.
41. T. M. Cheung, “Dragon on the Horizon: China’s Defense Industrial Renaissance,” Journal of Strategic Studies 32, no. 1 (2009): 29–66.
42. “What Does China Really Spend on Its Military?,” http://chinapower.csis.org/military-spending/.
43. T. Shanker and M. Mazzetti, “China and US Clash on Naval Fracas,” New York Times, March 10, 2009.
44. “UPDATE 3-Geithner Tells China Its Dollar Assets Are Safe,” Reuters, May 31, 2009.
45. Shambaugh, “Coping with a Conflicted China.”
46. National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2025 (Washington, DC, 2008); and K. Liao, “The Pentagon and the Pivot,” Survival 55, no. 3 (2013), 95–114.
47. J. Fallows, “Be Nice to the Countries That Lend You Money.”
CHAPTER 11: G20
1. C.
Pereira and J. A. de Castro Neves, “Brazil and China: South-South Partnership or North-South Competition?” Brookings Policy Paper Number 26, March 2011.
2. A. Ahuja and M. S. Nabar, “Investment-Led Growth in China: Global Spillovers” (IMF Working Paper 12/267, 2012).
3. OECD, Maddison Project database, http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/data.htm.
4. J. R. Blöndal, I. Hawkesworth and H.-D. Choi, “Budgeting in Indonesia,” OECD Journal on Budgeting 9, no. 2 (2009), 49.
5. A. Doraisami, “Macro-Economic Policy Responses to Financial Crises in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand,” Journal of Contemporary Asia 44, no. 4 (2014), 581–598.
6. M. Fackler, “South Koreans Reliving Nightmare of Last Financial Crisis,” New York Times, October 24, 2008.
7. H. Cho, South Korea’s Experience with Banking Sector Liberalisation (research report, Amsterdam, 2010); and T. Kalinowski and H. Cho, “The Political Economy of Financial Liberalization in South Korea: State, Big Business, and Foreign Investors,” Asian Survey 49, no. 2 (2009), 221–242.
8. H. Cho, South Korea’s Experience with Global Financial Crisis (Ontario: North-South Institute, 2012), 10.
9. J. Ree, K. Yoon and H. Park, “FX Funding Risks and Exchange Rate Volatility–Korea’s Case” (IMF Working Paper 12-268, 2012).
10. B. Eichengreen, Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010), 168.
11. H. C. Chung, “The Bank of Korea’s Policy Response to the Global Financial Crisis,” Bank for International Settlements Paper 54 (2010), 257.
12. J. Chomthongdi, “Thailand and the World Financial Crisis: How Will Civil Unrest Further Damage Thailand’s Economic Position?,” April 20, 2009, http://www.theglobalist.com/thailand-and-the-world-financial-crisis/; and S. Chirathivat and S. Mallikamas. “Thailand’s Economic Performance and Responses to the Global Crisis,” Proceedings of Asia After the Crisis Conference, 2010.