by Adam Tooze
51. The fact that Europe’s bank stress tests lacked the backing of clear recapitalization facilities is highlighted by T. Santos, “El Diluvio: The Spanish Banking Crisis, 2008–2012,” manuscript (2017), Columbia Business School, Columbia University.
52. L. Thomas Jr., “Greek Bonds Lure Some, Despite Risk,” New York Times, September 28, 2011.
53. Bastasin, Saving Europe, 259.
54. Acharya and Steffen, “The Banking Crisis as a Giant Carry Trade Gone Wrong.”
55. B. H. Cohen, “How Have Banks Adjusted to Higher Capital Requirements?,” BIS Quarterly Review, 2013, 25.
56. Report of the Joint Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis, Houses of the Oireachtas (Inquiries, Privileges and Procedures) Act, 2016.
57. C. Gleeson, “Ireland’s Austerity Budgets,” Irish Times, December 13, 2013.
58. Blustein, Laid Low, 157.
59. G. Wiesmann, “Merkel Seeks to Pull Bondholders into Rescues,” Financial Times, November 24, 2010.
60. K. Bennhold, “At Deauville, Europe Embraces Russia,” New York Times, October 18, 2010.
61. C. Forelle, D. Gauthier-Villars, B. Blackstone and D. Enrich, “As Ireland Flails, Europe Lurches Across the Rubicon,” Wall Street Journal, December 27, 2010.
62. Zimmermann, “A Grand Coalition for the Euro.”
63. L. Barber and R. Atkins, FT interview transcript: Mario Draghi, Financial Times, December 18, 2011.
64. A. Mody, “The Ghost of Deauville,” VoxEU, January 7, 2014.
65. Report of the Joint Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis (Dublin: Houses of the Oireachtas, 2016), https://inquiries.oireachtas.ie/banking/.
66. L. O’Carroll, “Ireland’s Central Bank Governor Confirms IMF Loan on Its Way,” Guardian, November 18, 2010.
67. “Jean Claude Trichet Letter to Brian Lenihan,” Irish Times, November 6, 2014.
68. Editorial, “Was It for This?,” Irish Times, November 18, 2010.
69. Sanbu, Europe’s Orphan, 104.
70. A. Chopra, “Lessons from Ireland’s Financial Crisis,” 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XDomfai7DY.
71. P. Spiegel, “Draghi’s ECB Management: The Leaked Geithner Files,” Financial Times, November 11, 2014.
72. Report of the Joint Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis, Houses of the Oireachtas.
73. M. Matthijs and M. Blyth, “When Is It Rational to Learn the Wrong Lessons? Technocratic Authority, Social Learning, and Euro Fragility,” Perspectives on Politics (2017): 1–17.
74. Eichengreen, Hall of Mirrors, 302–311.
75. Bernanke, Courage to Act, 482–496.
76. See the sharp retrospective analysis by N. Kocherlakota of the Minneapolis Fed, “The Fed’s Unspoken Mandate: It Wants to Be ‘Normal,’ and That’s Bad for Most Americans,” June 13, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-13/the-fed-s-unspoken-mandate.
77. “Fed Doubted QE2 Impact, Worried over ‘Currency War’ Perception,” Reuters, January 15, 2016.
78. G. Beck, transcript, Fox News, November 3, 2010; Irwin, The Alchemists, 409; and Blinder, After the Music Stopped, 248–256.
79. D. Morgan, “Palin Tells Bernanke to ‘Cease and Desist,’” Reuters, November 8, 2010; and C. Asness et al., “Open Letter to Ben Bernanke,” Wall Street Journal, November 15, 2010.
80. J. Wheatley and P. Garnham, “Brazil in ‘Currency War’ Alert,” Financial Times, February 27, 2010.
81. Irwin, The Alchemists, 257.
82. “Interview with German finance minister Schäuble, The US Has Lived on Borrowed Money for Too Long,” Spiegel Online, November 8, 2010; and “Global Anger Swells at US Fed Actions,” Reuters, November 5, 2010.
83. R. Atkins, “Germany Attacks US Economic Policy,” Financial Times, November 7, 2010.
84. B. S. Bernanke, “Federal Reserve Policy in an International Context,” IMF Economic Review 65, no. 1 (2017), 5–36.
85. “UPDATE 2-Geithner: Beijing Supportive of G20 Rebalancing Effort,” Reuters, November 8, 2010.
86. Morgan, “Palin Tells Bernanke to ‘Cease and Desist.’”
87. R. Neil, “Non-US Banks’ Claims on the Federal Reserve,” BIS Quarterly Review, March 2014; and C. Choulet, “QE and Bank Balance Sheets: The American Experience,” BNP Paribas, Conjoncture 7 and 8 (July/August 2015), 3–19.
CHAPTER 16: G-ZERO WORLD
1. P. Krugman and R. Wells, “Where Do We Go from Here?,” New York Review of Books, January 13, 2011; P. Krugman, “The Intimidated Fed,” New York Times, April 28, 2011; and P. Krugman, “Against Learned Helplessness,” New York Times, May 29, 2011.
2. P. Krugman, “The Mistake of 2010,” New York Times, June 2, 2011.
3. “Playboy Interview: Paul Krugman,” Playboy, February 15, 2012.
4. A. Etzioni, “No Marshall Plan for the Middle East,” Prism 3, no. 1 (2011), 75–86.
5. T. Duncan, “The Federal Reserve Is Causing Turmoil Abroad,” Wall Street Journal, February 23, 2011.
6. “Blood on Bernanke’s Hands,” Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis, January 27, 2011, http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/blood-on-bernankes-hands-riots-in-egypt.html.
7. P. Krugman, “Droughts, Floods and Food,” New York Times, February 6, 2011.
8. I. Bremmer and N. Roubini, “AG-Zero World: The New Economic Club Will Produce Conflict, Not Cooperation,” Foreign Affairs 90 (2011), 2.
9. J. M. Magone, “Portugal Is Not Greece,” Perspectives on European Politics and Society 15.3 (2014), 346–360.
10. S. Hessel, Indignez-Vous! (Paris: Indigène éditions, 2010).
11. E. Castañeda, “The Indignados of Spain: A Precedent to Occupy Wall Street,” Social Movement Studies 11.3–4 (2012), 309–319.
12. “‘We Are Not Goods on Politicians and Bankers’ Hands’—A Letter from Spain,” June 13, 2011, http://www.fondation-bourdieu.org/index.php?id=20&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=40&.
13. J. M. Antentas, “Spain: The Indignados Rebellion of 2011 in Perspective,” Labor History 56.2 (2015), 136–160.
14. A. A. Ellinas, “The Rise of Golden Dawn: The New Face of the Far Right in Greece,” South European Society and Politics 18, no. 4 (2013), 543–565.
15. N. Hughes, “‘Young People Took to the Streets and All of a Sudden All of the Political Parties Got Old’: The 15M Movement In Spain,” Social Movement Studies 10, no. 4 (2011), 407–413; and M. Kaika and K. Lazaros, “The Spatialization of Democratic Politics: Insights from Indignant Squares,” European Urban and Regional Studies 23, no. 4 (2016), 556–570.
16. E. Romanos, “Evictions, Petitions and Escraches: Contentious Housing in Austerity Spain,” Social Movement Studies 13, no. 2 (2014), 296–302.
17. Borrowing from protests in Argentina designed to unmask the torturers of the military regime, S. Kaiser, “Escraches: Demonstrations, Communication and Political Memory in Post-Dictatorial Argentina,” Media, Culture & Society 24, no. 4 (2002), 499–516.
18. W. Streeck, Buying the Time: The Delayed Crisis of Democratic Capitalism (London: Verso, 2014), 116.
19. M. Kaldor and S. Selchow, “The ‘Bubbling Up’ of Subterranean Politics in Europe,” Journal of Civil Society 9, no. 1 (2013), 78–99.
20. For a sharp analysis of Tsipras’s new rhetoric of the people see J. B. Judis, The Populist Explosion (New York: Columbia Global Reports, 2016), Kindle location 1516–1517. For a view from the far left see K. Ovenden, Syriza: Inside the Labyrinth (London: Pluto Press, 2015).
21. C. Delclós, Hope Is a Promise (London: Zed Books, 2015).
22. D. Hancox, “Why Ernesto Laclau Is the Intellectual Figurehead for Syriza and Podemos,” Guardian, February 9, 2015.
23. P. Iglesias, Politics in a Time of Crisis: Podemos and the Future of European Democracy (London: Verso, 2015), 61.
24.
Paul Krugman, “The Expansionary Austerity Zombie,” New York Times, November 20, 2015.
25. C. Forelle and M. Walker, “Dithering at the Top Turned EU Crisis to Global Threat,” Wall Street Journal, December 29, 2011.
26. Papaconstantinou, Game Over, Kindle locations 3083–3095.
27. Bastasin, Saving Europe, 223.
28. R. Atkins, “ECB Raises Rates for First Time Since 2008,” Financial Times, April 7, 2011; and R. Atkins, “ECB Raises Interest Rates to 1.5%,” Financial Times, July 7, 2011.
29. J. Stark, “ECB Must Favour No Nation,” Financial Times, March 30, 2011.
30. Bastasin, Saving Europe, 268; Gabor, “Power of Collateral,” 27; and D. M. Woodruff, “Governing by Panic: The Politics of the Eurozone Crisis,” Politics & Society 44.1 (2016), 81–116.
31. Bank of England, Financial Stability Report (December 2011).
32. P. Garheim, “Traders ‘Short’ Dollar as Currency Loses Attraction,” Financial Times, March 7, 2011; and C. Comstock, “Check Out the Hedge Funds Profiting Off Big Europe Shorts,” Business Insider, August 5, 2011.
33. For clear-headed dissection of the argument see Sandbu, Europe’s Orphan, 118–122, and Schelkle, Political Economy of Monetary Solidaity, 266–302.
34. For an admirably comprehensive and multilingual bibliography of the debate, see Professor Sinn’s Web site, http://www.hanswernersinn.de/en/controversies/TargetDebate.
35. W. Jacoby, “Germany and the Eurocrisis: The Timing of Politics and the Politics of Timing” (ACES Cases, no. 2014.3, 2014).
36. C. Forelle and M. Walker, “Dithering at the Top,” Wall Street Journal, December 29, 2011.
37. C. Reiermann, “Greece Considers Exit from Euro Zone,” Spiegel Online, May 6, 2011; and “Bailing Out the Bail-out,” Economist, May 9, 2011.
38. C. Forelle, “Luxembourg Lies on Secret Meeting,” Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2011; and V. Pop, “Eurogroup Chief: ‘I’m for Secret, Dark Debates,’” April 21, 2011, https://euobserver.com/economic/32222.
39. Blustein, Laid Low, 201.
40. “No Country Is an Island: Ireland and the IMF,” IMF (blog), July 14, 2011, https://blogs.imf.org/2011/07/14/no-country-is-an-island-ireland-and-the-imf/.
41. N. Véron, “The IMF’s Role in the Euro Area Crisis: Financial Sector Aspects” (IEO Background Paper BP/16-02/10, IMF, 2016).
42. D. Strauss-Kahn, “Crisis Management Arrangements for a European Banking System” (speech, Brussels, March 19, 2010), https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sp031910.
43. P. J. Williams, “L’Affaire DSK: Presumption of Innocence Lost,” Nation, May 24, 2011.
44. P. Wilkinson, “Sarkozy Party Chief Denies DSK ‘Plot Claim,’” CNN, November 28, 2011.
45. M. Naß, “USA wollen mehr deutsche Verlässlichkeit,” Die Zeit, June 5, 2011.
46. IMF Country Report 11/175 (July 2011).
47. A. Faiola and H. Schneider, “Debt Crisis Threatens Italy, One of Euro Zone’s Biggest Economies,” Washington Post, July 12, 2011; and S. Castle, “Italian Debt Adds to Fears in Euro Zone,” New York Times, July 10, 2011.
48. O. Helgadóttir, “The Bocconi Boys Go to Brussels: Italian Economic Ideas, Professional Networks and European Austerity,” Journal of European Public Policy 23, no. 3 (2016), 392–409; and M. Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013), 170–171.
49. A. Friedman, Berlusconi: The Epic Story of the Billionaire Who Took Over Italy (New York: Hachette, 2015).
50. S. Braghiroli, “The Italian Local Elections of 2011: Four Ingredients for a Political Defeat,” Bulletin of Italian Politics 3, no. 1 (2011), 137–157.
51. “Helmut Kohl rechnet mit Merkels Europapolitik ab,” Spiegel Online, July 17, 2011.
52. T. Alloway, “Goldman Answers 10 Questions on Italy,” Financial Times, July 18, 2011.
53. Bastasin, Saving Europe, 313.
54. ETF, “Market-Implied Default Probabilities and Credit Indexes,” December 30, 2011, http://www.etf.com/publications/journalofindexes/joi-articles/10605-market-implied-default-probabilities-and-credit-indexes.html?nopaging=1.
55. L. Thomas Jr., “Pondering a Dire Day: Leaving the Euro,” New York Times, December 12, 2011.
56. R. De Bock, “What Happens in Emerging Markets If Recent Bank and Portfolio Inflows Reverse?,” IMF, April 15, 2012.
57. J. Barthélémy, V. Bignon and B. Nguyen, “Illiquid Collateral and Bank Lending During the European Sovereign Debt Crisis,” Mimeo, 2017.
58. Bastasin, Saving Europe, 293.
59. G. Wearden, “European Debt Crisis Meeting,” Guardian, July 21, 2011.
60. Blustein, Laid Low, 227.
61. A boast confirmed by economic analysis that suggests that the haircut was, in fact, minimal. J. Zettelmeyer, C. Trebesch and M. Gulati, “The Greek Debt Restructuring: An Autopsy,” Economic Policy 28, no. 75 (2013), 513–563.
62. For this and the following, “EU Leaders Must Now Persuade Investors That New Drive Can Work,” July 22, 2011, http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/eu-leaders-must-now-persuade-investors-that-new-drive-can-work.
63. R. Milne and J. Wilson, “Deutsche Bank Hedges Italian Risk,” Financial Times, July 26, 2011.
64. V. Damiani, “Italian Prosecutor Investigates Deutsche Bank over 2011 Bond Sale,” Reuters, May 6, 2016.
65. T. E. Mann and N. J. Ornstein, It’s Even Worse Than It Looks, 2nd ed. (New York: Basic Books, 2016).
66. US Treasury, “As US Reaches Debt Limit, Geithner Implements Additional Extraordinary Measures,” May 16, 2011, https://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Pages/Geithner-Implements-Additional-Extraordinary-Measures-to-Allow-Continued-Funding-of-Government-Obligations.aspx.
67. G. Sargent, “Nonstop Chatter About Deficit Does Nothing to Reassure People About Economy,” Washington Post, April 28, 2011.
68. P. Wallsten, L. Montgomery and S. Wilson, “Obama’s Evolution: Behind the Failed ‘Grand Bargain’ on the Debt,” Washington Post, March 17, 2012.
69. “Trillion Dollar Coin,” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion_dollar_coin.
70. “Debt Limit Analysis,” July 2011, http://cdn.bipartisanpolicy.org/wp-content/uploadssites/default/files/DebtLimitAnalysis.pdf [inactive].
71. N. Krishnan, A. Martin and A. Sarkar, “Pick Your Poison: How Money Market Funds Reacted to Financial Stress in 2011,” Liberty Street Economics (blog), 2013.
72. D. A. Austin and R. S. Miller, “Treasury Securities and the US Sovereign Credit Default Swap Market,” CRS Report for Congress, no. 7-5700, 2011.
73. K. Drum, “Quote of the Day: Hostages and Ransom Demands,” Mother Jones, August 3, 2011, http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/08/quote-day-hostage-and-ransom-notes.
74. Washington Post staff, “Origins of the Debt Showdown,” Washington Post, August 6, 2011.
75. “US Credit Rating Downgraded,” Economist, August 3, 2011.
76. “Research Update: United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered to ‘AA+,’” August 6, 2011, http://www.standardandpoors.com/en_AP/web/guest/article/-/view/sourceId/6802837.
77. US Treasury, “Just the Facts,” August 6, 2011, https://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Pages/Just-the-Facts-SPs-2-Trillion-Mistake.aspx.
78. M. Walker, D. Paletta, and B. Blackstone, “Global Crisis of Confidence,” Wall Street Journal, August 13, 2011.
79. “FBI Documents Reveal Secret Nationwide Occupy Monitoring,” December 21, 2012, http://www.justiceonline.org/fbi_files_ows.
80. “Media Coverage of Occupy vs. Tea Party,” October 21, 2011, http://www.journalism.org/numbers/tale-two-protests/.
81. M. A. Gould-Wartofsky, The Occupiers: The Making of the 99 Percent Movement (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015).
82. E. Addly, “Occupy Movement: From Local Action to a Global Howl
of Protest,” Guardian, October 17, 2011.
83. J. Zeley and M. Thee-Brenan, “New Poll Finds a Deep Distrust of Government,” New York Times, October 25, 2011; and “Americans’ Approval of Congress Drops to Single Digits,” New York Times, October 25, 2011.
CHAPTER 17: DOOM LOOP
1. “Pressestatements,” September 1, 2011, https://www.bundesregierung.de/ContentArchiv/DE/Archiv17/Mitschrift/Pressekonferenzen/2011/09/2011-09-01-merkel-coelho.html.
2. V. A. Schmidt and M. Thatcher, “Why Are Neoliberal Ideas So Resilient in Europe’s Political Economy?,” Critical Policy Studies 8, no. 3 (2014): 340–347.
3. Q. Peel, “Germany and the Eurozone: Besieged in Berlin,” Financial Times, September 26, 2011.
4. “Merkel im Bundestag: Die größte Belastungsprobe, die es je gab,” Die Zeit, October 26, 2011.
5. Classically articulated by F. Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (New York: Free Press, 1992).
6. As argued forcefully in W. Streeck, Buying Time.
7. G. Dinmore and R. Atkins, “ECB Letter Shows Pressure on Berlusconi,” Financial Times, September 29, 2011.
8. E. Lobina and R. Cavallo, “The Campaign Against Water Privatisation in Italy,” 2011, https://research.ncl.ac.uk/media/sites/researchwebsites/gobacit/Emanuele%20Lobina.pdf.
9. G. Angiulli, “The State of Emergency in Italy” (University of Trento, 2009) mimeo, http://www.jus.unitn.it/cocoa/papers/PAPERS%204TH%20PDF%5CEmergency%20Italy%20Angiulli.pdf.
10. G. Tremlett, “Spain Changes Constitution to Cap Budget Deficit,” Guardian, August 26, 2011.
11. Cited in G. Hewitt, The Lost Continent: The Inside Story of Europe’s Darkest Hour Since World War Two (London: Hodder & Stoughton, 2013), 184.
12. “Financial Markets in Early August 2011,” ECB, Monthly Bulletin, September 2011.
13. Bastasin, Saving Europe, 306; and V. Constancio, “Contagion and the European Debt Crisis,” Financial Stability Review 16 (2012), 109–121.
14. M. Schlieben and L. Caspari, “Merkels Mehrheit für einen Tag,” Die Zeit, September 29, 2011.