Crashed

by Adam Tooze

  18. C. Laderman and B. Simms, Donald Trump: The Making of a Worldview (London: Endeavour Pess, 2017).

  19. K. W. Capehart, “Hyman Minsky’s Interpretation of Donald Trump,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 38.3 (2015): 477–492

  20. F. Norris, “Trump Sees Act of God in Recession,” New York Times, December 4, 2008.

  21. Soopermexican, “Trump on TARP and Stimulus Sounds More Like a Crony Capitalist Than a Conservative,” The Right Scoop (blog), August 15, 2015, http://therightscoop.com/trump-on-tarp-and-stimulus-sounds-more-like-a-crony-capitalist-than-a-conservative/.

  22. Southern constitutionalist, “Trump Has Supported Nearly All of Obama’s Economic Policy Agenda,” RedState (blog), August 27, 2015.

  23. J. Green, Devil’s Bargain: Steve Bannon, Donald Trump, and the Storming of the President (New York: Penguin Press, 2017), 96–103.

  24. M. Grunwald, “Trump’s Love Affair with Coal,” Politico, October 15, 2017, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/15/trumps-love-affair-with-coal-215710.

  25. Pew Research, “Clinton, Trump Supporters Have Starkly Different Views of a Changing Nation,” August 18, 2016, http://www.people-press.org/2016/08/18/5-issues-and-the-2016-campaign/.

  26. R. Rubin and N. Timiraos, “Donald Trump Shows GOP’s Economic Pillars Are Loosening,” Wall Street Journal, July 19, 2016.

  27. J. Creswell, “Trump and US Chamber of Commerce Pull No Punches on Trade Policy,” New York Times, July 11, 2016.

  28. B. White, “Wall Street Shuns Trump’s Cleveland Convention,” Politico, July 13, 2016.

  29. T. Mak, “Major Corporate Sponsors Are Scaling Back Support for GOP Convention,” May 6, 2016, https://www.thedailybeast.com/major-corporate-sponsors-are-scaling-back-support-for-gop-convention.

  30. H. Paulson, “When It Comes to Trump, a Republican Treasury Secretary Says: Choose Country Over Party,” Washington Post, June 24, 2016.

  31. Ibid.

  32. S. Bannon, Generation Zero film, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsqu9gh6xhk.

  33. D. Johnson, “Trump Nominates Goldman Sachs ‘Alligator’ Jay Clayton to Run SEC,” TruthOut, March 29, 2017.

  34. A. Greenspan, “Ich bin im falschen Jahrhundert geboren,” Zürcher Tages-Anzeiger, September 19, 2007.

  35. M. Adday, “Alan Greenspan Doesn’t Want ‘Crazies’ to Undermine the U.S.,” Fortune, September 15, 2016.

  36. Editorial, “Who’s Greenspan Calling Crazy?,” New York Sun, September 14, 2016, http://www.nysun.com/editorials/who-is-greenspan-calling-crazy/89716/.

  37. “Trump Says US Interest Rates Must Change as Fed Weighs Rate Hike,” Reuters, September 5, 2016; “Trump Finally Got It Right on the Fed’s ‘False Economy’—but Will We Listen?,” Guardian, September 8, 2016; “Donald Trump Says Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen ‘Should Be Ashamed of Herself,’” Washington Post, September 12, 2016.

  38. Esquire editors, “The Untold Stories of Election Day 2016,” Esquire, November 5, 2017, http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a13266971/election-2016-behind-the-scenes/.

  39. C. E. Lee and N. Stamouli, “Trump’s Win, Brexit Vote Stem from Mishandling of Globalization, Obama Says,” Wall Street Journal, November 16, 2016.

  40. N. Carnes and N. Lupu, “It’s Time to Bust the Myth: Most Trump Voters Were Not Working Class,” Washington Post, June 5, 2017.

  41. R. Blendon, L. Casey and J. Benson, “Public Opinion and Trump’s Jobs and Trade Policies,” Challenge 60 (2017), 228–244.

  42. A. Guisinger, “Americans’ Views of Trade Aren’t Just About Economics. They’re Also About Race,” Washington Post, August 16, 2016.

  43. M. Davis, “The Great God Trump and the White Working Class,” Jacobin, February 7, 2017; and Ferguson and Page, “The Hinge of Fate?”

  44. D. Drezner, “My One Contribution to the Autopsies of the 2016 Presidential Election,” Washington Post, May 2, 2017.

  45. M. Crowley, “The Deep State Is Real,” Politico, September/October 2017; and T. Porter, “Deep State: How a Conspiracy Theory Went from Political Fringe to Mainstream,” Newsweek, August 2, 2017.

  46. J. Winter and E. Groll, “Here’s the Memo That Blew Up the NSC,” Foreign Policy, August 10, 2017.

  47. B. Leubsdorf, E. Morath and J. Zumbrun, “Economists Who’ve Advised Presidents Are No Fans of Donald Trump,” Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2016.

  48. B. Casselman, “Why Trump’s Carrier Deal Isn’t the Way to Save US Jobs,” FiveThirtyEight (blog), December 5, 2016, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trumps-carrier-deal-isnt-the-way-to-save-u-s-jobs/.

  49. D. Griswold, “Trump’s Carrier ‘Success’ Signals a Retreat of US Business in Global Markets,” Mad About Trade, December 2, 2016.

  50. S. Liesman, “Optimism on Economy, Stocks Surges Since Trump Election: CNBC Survey,” CNBC, December 9, 2016.

  51. P. Domm, “How Donald Trump Blew Up the Bond Market and Changed Everyone’s View of Interest Rates,” CNBC, November 14, 2016.

  52. D. Dayen, “Donald Trump Isn’t Even Pretending to Oppose Goldman Sachs Anymore,” The Intercept, March 15, 2017.

  53. M. Grunwald, “The Trade Deal We Just Threw Overboard,” Politico Magazine, March/April 2017.

  54. “Brad Delong: The Democrats’ Line in the Sand,” Economist’s View, June 30, 2008, http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/06/brad-delong-the.html.

  55. “Kentucky Residents Express Dissatisfaction with GOP Efforts to Dismantle Obamacare,” All Things Considered, NPR, July 18, 2017, https://www.npr.org/2017/07/18/537948591/kentucky-residents-express-dissatisfaction-with-gop-efforts-to-dismantle-obamaca.

  56. H. Fingerhut, “Support for 2010 Health Care Law Reaches New High,” Pew Research Center, February 23, 2017.

  57. R. Savransky, “Poll: Support for ObamaCare Repeal-Only Plan at 13 Percent,” The Hill, July 19, 2017.

  58. R. Berman, “The Republican Majority in Congress Is an Illusion,” Atlantic, March 31, 2017.

  59. M. Sheetz, “Treasury Secretary Mnuchin Extends Measure to Hold Off Debt-Limit Default,” CNBC, July 28, 2017.

  60. M. Grunwald, “Mick the Knife,” Politico, September/October 2017.

  61. E. D. Kleinbard, “The Debt Ceiling Crisis Is Real,” New York Times, August 7, 2017.

  62. R. Savransky and J. Fabian, “Trump: US ‘Needs a Good Shutdown,’” The Hill, May 2, 2017, http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/331512-trump-us-needs-a-good-shutdown.

  63. R. Bade, B. Everett and J. Dawsey, “Trump Sides with Democrats in Debt Limit, Funding, Harvey Deal,” Politico, September 6, 2017. The far bigger disaster in Puerto Rico turned out to be of little concern to Washington.

  64. I. Millhiser, “Memo to the New York Times: Donald Trump Is a Republican,” Think Progress, September 11, 2017.

  65. M. Yglesias, “The Looming Debt Ceiling Fight, Explained,” Vox, August 9, 2017.

  66. “How the Republican Tax Bill Compares with Previous Reforms,” Economist, December 9, 2017.

  67. A. Rappeport, “Ahead of Vote, Promised Treasury Analysis of Tax Bill Proves Elusive,” New York Times, November 30, 2017. For the one-page memo summarizing the Treasury’s claims about the growth impact of tax cuts see “Analysis of Growth and Revenue Estimates Based on the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance Tax Reform Plan,” December 11, 2017, https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Documents/TreasuryGrowthMemo12-11-17.pdf.

  68. P. Baker, “Arthur Laffer’s Theory on Tax Cuts Comes to Life Once More,” New York Times, April 25, 2017.

  69. A. Simpson and E. Bowles, “A Moment of Truth for Our Country’s Financial Future,” Washington Post, November 29, 2017.

  70. R. Rubin, “Analysis: How Consensus for Corporate Rate Cut Turned into Partisan Tax Brawl,” Wall Street Journal, December 22, 2017.

  71. K. Zernike and A. Rappeport, “Heading Towa
rd Tax Victory, Republicans Eye Next Step: Cut Spending,” New York Times, December 2, 2017.

  72. “Tax Reform Plan a ‘Bid to Make US Inequality Champion,’” Al Jazeera, December 16, 2017, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/12/tax-reform-plan-bid-champion-inequality-171216105649640.html.

  73. CBO, “Analysis of the Long-Term Costs of the Administration’s Goals for the Military,” December 2017, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53350.

  74. L. Summers, “Sugar High Is Right Diagnosis, Tax Cuts Are the Wrong Prescription,” December 10, 2017, http://larrysummers.com/2017/12/10/sugar-high-is-right-diagnosis-tax-cuts-are-the-wrong-prescription/.

  75. J. Hilsenrath and D. Harrison, “Yellen Cites Benefits to Running Economy Hot for Some Time,” Wall Street Journal, October 14, 2017.

  76. L. Summers, “Three (Almost) Inexplicable Parts of the Republican Tax Plan,” Washington Post, November 5, 2017.

  77. C. Collins, “House Republican: My Donors Told Me to Pass the Tax Bill ‘or Don’t Ever Call Me Again,’” November 7, 2017, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/7/16618038/house-republicans-tax-bill-donors-chris-collins.

  78. “What Donald Trump’s Election Means for Government-Bond Markets,” Economist, December 3, 2016.

  79. J. Sommer, “Clouds Are Forming over the Bond Market,” New York Times, June 30, 2017.

  80. S. Oh, “Treasury Yields Rise as Roadblock to Tax Bill Removed,” December 15, 2017, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-inch-higher-as-tax-bill-set-for-unveiling-2017-12-15.

  81. IMF, World Economic Outlook (Washington, DC: IMF, 2017), 19, Figure 1.13, panel 4.

  82. Americans for Financial Reform, “How Americans View Wall Street and Financial Regulation,” August 2017, http://ourfinancialsecurity.org/americans-view-wall-street-financial-regulation-august-2017/.

  83. J. Mason and S. N. Lynch, “Trump’s Message to Bankers: Wall Street Reform Rules May Be Eliminated,” Reuters, April 11, 2017.

  84. J. Dizard, “The Trump Era of Light-Touch Regulation Dawns,” Financial Times, July 2, 2017.

  85. H. Levintova, “House Republicans Are Trying to Pass the Most Dangerous Wall Street Deregulation Bill Ever,” Mother Jones, June 7, 2017.

  86. G. Bennett, “House Passes Bill Aimed at Reversing Dodd-Frank Financial Regulations,” NPR, June 8, 2017.

  87. “A Financial System That Creates Economic Opportunities: Banks and Credit Unions—Core Principles for Regulating the United States Financial System,” US Treasury report to President Donald J. Trump, Executive Order 13772 (June 2017).

  88. J. Dizard, “The Trump Era of Light-Touch Regulation Dawns,” Financial Times, July 2, 2017.

  89. A. Scaggs, “Save the OFR,” Financial Times, June 15, 2017.

  90. B. Jopson, “US Regulator Moves to Loosen Volcker Rule,” Financial Times, August 2, 2017.

  91. R. Tracy, “Trump Team to Recommend Keeping Dodd-Frank Liquidation Power,” Wall Street Journal, November 29, 2017.

  92. For Greenspan’s defense see A. Greenspan, “The Crisis,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2010, 202–250. For media coverage, see Dealbook, “Greenspan: The Fed Failed to Gauge the Bubble,” New York Times, March 18, 2010.

  93. B. Bernanke, “Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet,” Brookings, January 26, 2017.

  94. V. Guida and B. White, “Trump Dumps Yellen, Picks Powell in Biggest Economic Move,” Politico, November 2, 2017, https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/02/trump-picks-powell-fed-chair-244475.

  95. See Powell’s bio at the Bipartisan Policy Center, https://bipartisanpolicy.org/person/jerome-powell-0/.

  96. B. Applebaum, “In Choice of Fed Chairman, Trump Downgrades Deregulation,” New York Times, October 29, 2017.

  97. D. A. Irwin, “Mr. Trump’s Trade War,” Wall Street Journal, December 15, 2017.

  98. D. Lawder, “G20 Ministers Give Mnuchin Space to Define Trump Trade Agenda,” Reuters, March 20, 2017.

  99. C. Jones and S. Fleming, “G20 Drops Vow to Resist All Forms of Protectionism,” Financial Times, March 18, 2017.

  100. Ibid.

  101. A. Parker, P. Rucker, D. Paletta and K. Deyoung, “Inside Donald Trump’s Sudden Reversal on NAFTA,” Chicago Tribune, April 27, 2017.

  102. J. Mason and D. Lawder, “Trump Says Was ‘Psyched to Terminate NAFTA’ but Reconsidered,” Reuters, April 26, 2017.

  103. “Inside Donald Trump’s Sudden Reversal on NAFTA.”

  104. M. Grunwald, “The Trade Deal We Just Threw Overboard,” Politico Magazine, March /April 2017.

  105. D. A. Irwin, Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy (Chicago: Chicago University Press, 2017), Kindle location 9115–10214.

  106. G. Shaffer, M. Elsig and M. Pollack, “The Slow Killing of the World Trade Organization,” Huffington Post, November 17, 2017, https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-slow-killing-of-the-world-trade-organization_us_5a0ccd1de4b03fe7403f82df.

  107. P. Levy, “Robert Lighthizer’s Global Trade Governance Critique,” Forbes, December 12, 2017.

  108. “US Broadside Leaves WTO Meeting in Tatters,” Deutsche Welle, December 12, 2017.

  109. K. McNamara, “Trump Takes Aim at the European Union: Why the EU Won’t Unify in Response,” Foreign Affairs, January 24, 2017.

  110. E.-K. Symons, “Steve Bannon Loves France,” Politico, March 22, 2017, and C. Alduy, “The Novel That Unites Marine Le Pen and Steve Bannon,” Politico, April 23, 2017.

  111. D. Frum, “Trump’s Trip Was a Catastrophe for US-Europe Relations,” Atlantic, May 28, 2017.

  112. J. Henley, “Angela Merkel: EU Cannot Completely Rely on US and Britain Any More,” Guardian, May 28, 2017.

  113. R. Haass, Twitter, May 28, 2017.

  114. Sorbonne speech of Emmanuel Macron, full text/English version, http://international.blogs.ouest-france.fr/archive/2017/09/29/macron-sorbonne-verbatim-europe-18583.html.

  115. Remarks by President Trump to the people of Poland, July 6, 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-people-poland/.

  116. “Schäuble Defends German Trade Surplus in the US,” April 20, 2017, http://www.dw.com/en/sch%C3%A4uble-defends-german-trade-surplus-in-the-us/a-38525267.

  117. T. Fairless, “Schäuble Defends Germany’s Trade Surplus,” Wall Street Journal, April 20, 2017.

  118. B. W. Setser, “G-3 Coordination Failures of the Past Eight Years? (A Riff on Cœuré and Brainard),” Follow the Money (blog), August 23. 2017, https://www.cfr.org/blog/g-3-coordination-failures-past-eight-years-riff-coeure-and-brainard.

  119. See the remarks by the director general of the WTO, R. Azevedo, “Remarks: The Evolution of Trade, Technology, and Globalization: How to Foster Inclusive Growth,” November 8, 2017, https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/spra_e/spra198_e.htm.

  120. C. Constantinescu, A. Mattoo, and M. Ruta, “The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?,” International Monetary Fund, No. 15–16, 2015.

  121. See the powerful critique in S. J. Evenett and J. Fritz, Will Awe Trump Rules? The 21st Global Trade Alert Report (London: CEPR, 2017).

  122. B. W. Setser, “Dark Matter. Soon to Be Revealed?,” Follow the Money (blog), February 2, 2017, https://www.cfr.org/blog/dark-matter-soon-be-revealed.

  123. National Security Strategy of the United States (Washington, December 2017), 37, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.

  124. D. A. Graham, “The Wrong Side of ‘the Right Side of History,’” Atlantic, December 21, 2015, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/12/obama-right-side-of-history/420462/.

  125. IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2017, 23, 187, 204.

  CHAPTER 25: THE SHAPE OF THINGS TO COME

  1. N. Barkin and E. Piper, “In Davos, Xi Makes Case for Chinese Leadership Role,” Reuters, January 17, 2017.


  2. “President Xi’s Speech to Davos in Full,” World Economic Forum, January 17, 2017.

  3. E. Wong and C. Buckley, “Stock Market Plunge in China Dents Communist Party’s Stature,” New York Times, July 9, 2015.

  4. C. Walter and F. Howie, Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China’s Extraordinary Rise (Singapore: Wiley, 2011).

  5. “China Forex Reserves Fall $512.66 Billion in 2015, Biggest Drop on Record,” Reuters, January 7, 2016.

  6. “China’s Yuan Carry Trade, an Anchor and a Risk for Asia,” Reuters, January 30, 2014; and “Is the $1tn China Carry Trade Imploding?,” Financial Times, February 5, 2015.

  7. “Highlights of the BIS International Statistics,” BIS, December 7, 2014.

  8. R. N. McCauley, “Capital Flowed Out of China Through BIS Reporting Banks in Q1 2015,” BIS, September 13, 2015.

  9. “The World Economy Is Picking Up,” Economist, March 18, 2017.

  10. “China’s Slowdown and Cheap Oil,” BBC, August 26, 2015.

  11. “Timeline of China’s Attempts to Prevent Stock Market Meltdown,” Reuters, August 28, 2015.

  12. “The World Economy Is Picking Up.”

  13. S. Fischer, “The Federal Reserve and the Global Economy,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, October 11, 2014.

  14. “Janet Yellen Invokes China 16 Times in 1 Hour,” CNN, September 18, 2015.

  15. “Fed Should Not Raise Interest Rates Just Yet: China FinMin,” CNBC, October 12, 2015.

  16. “Fed’s Focus on China Unnerves Some Investors,” Reuters, September 18, 2015.

  17. “Fed Raises Key Interest Rates for First Time in Almost a Decade,” New York Times, December 16, 2015.

  18. B. Setser, “Too Chinese (and Russian) to Fail?”

  19. “The View of the Eurozone Crisis from China,” Chicago Policy Review, April 16, 2012; and “China’s Fears Grow over Eurozone Crisis,” Telegraph, August 20, 2012.

  20. V. Dombrovskis and P. Moscovici, “Reflection Paper on the Deepening of the Economic and Monetary Union” (Brusssels: European Commission, 2017).