For its part, Iran is threatening its adversaries with dire consequences if they should launch an attack. Masud Yazaiari, spokesperson of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, warned that Iran would respond to any Israeli efforts to stop their nuclear program. “Their threats to attack our nuclear facilities will not succeed,” Yazaiari said. “They are aware that Tehran’s response would be overwhelming and would wipe Israel off the face of the earth.”
Biochemical Warfare
Despite the expansion of the nuclear club, it is still difficult to acquire the technology and resources required to build a bomb. It is comparatively simple, however, to develop chemical and biological weapons. Sometimes referred to as the poor country’s nuclear weapon, these weapons are a growing threat to Middle East stability. Israel is believed to have a stockpile. Iran and Syria also have the capability to use them. A growing concern in recent years has been that terrorists might acquire a nonconventional weapon to devastating effect.
Building a Better Mousetrap—or Missile
Also worrisome is the development and deployment of increasingly accurate, long-range missiles. North Korea and China are leaders in this field and have sold their wares to countries such as Syria, Iran, and Egypt.
Iran has also been building its own missiles. In August 2004, Iran tested a new version of its ballistic Shahab-3 missile (Shahab means “shooting star” in Farsi), which was already capable of reaching Israel and U.S. forces in the Middle East. The Iranians subsequently announced the missile’s range had been improved from 810 to 1,200 miles.
Meanwhile, Israel has developed an accurate, long-range missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. In addition, it is believed that Israel has either deployed, or now has the capability to deploy, submarine-launched nuclear missiles, giving it a land-air-sea triad and an enhanced first-and second-strike capability.
* * *
Sage Sayings
[North Korea, Iran, and Iraq], and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world. By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger. They could provide these arms to terrorists, giving them the means to match their hatred. They could attack our allies or attempt to blackmail the United States. In any of these cases, the price of indifference would be catastrophic.
—President George W. Bush, State of the Union address, January 29, 2002
* * *
During the Cold War, the fear of mutual assured destruction (MAD) helped prevent both the United States and the Soviet Union from going to war and using their nuclear weapons against each other. Many analysts are skeptical that deterrence will work in the Middle East. Iran’s former president, Ali Akhbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, intimated that Iran would be prepared to use nuclear weapons against Israel because it would destroy the Jewish state without damaging the world of Islam. Other analysts, however, believe that Arab and Israeli leaders are no less rational than the U.S. and Soviet leaders were and would not risk a cataclysmic counterstrike. In the age of suicide bombing, when a nuclear attack would be the ultimate act of martyrdom, can the world rely on MAD to stop madmen?
Peace in Our Time?
Given all the problems, threats, and uncertainty, it is hard to paint an optimistic picture of the future. When I wrote the first edition of this book, I suggested that a major source of instability, the Arab-Israeli conflict, might finally be ending because Israel made peace with Egypt and Jordan and appeared to be moving toward a final settlement with the Palestinians. At the same time, most of the Arab world appeared reconciled to the Jewish state’s existence. It is difficult to be as optimistic today. True, the peace with Egypt and Jordan has held, and there is a whiff of hope for a Palestinian-Israeli agreement in the wake of Arafat’s death and changes in the Palestinian Authority, but we’ve seen that even the removal of Saddam Hussein has not yet brought peace to Iraq, and a single person with a bomb strapped to their chest can blow innocent people and the peace process to bits.
The good news is that for all the talk of radical Islam, and the fear it has engendered since September 11, the Arab regimes in the Middle East have so far not been taken over by the religious extremists (though many would argue the existing regime in Saudi Arabia that bin-Laden wants to overthrow is already quite extreme). After the Iranian revolution, Islamic fundamentalism inspired by Ayatollah Khomeini was supposed to sweep the region and undermine the pro-Western governments. More than 26 years later, Iran is still the only revolutionary Islamic republic in the Middle East. Still, the threat of radical Islam remains, and even if the extremists do not take over any countries in the region, they can threaten them.
It is a depressing and frightening scenario and not the one on which we should end a book, even one on conflict. I prefer to take a more positive view of the future. Iraq and the Palestinian Authority both had their first democratic-style elections. The images of Iraqis voting for the first time, in defiance of the terrorists who tried to intimidate them, has inspired many people in the Middle East. Winds of change are blowing, and may yet overtake the Arab autocrats and religious zealots.
For years, people said an Arab leader would never make peace with Israel. It will never happen. It cannot possibly happen. It took 30 years, but, in 1979, it did happen when Anwar Sadat and Menachem Begin signed the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty on the White House lawn. It took another 15 years before Jordan’s King Hussein had the courage to make peace with Israel.
Today people say that no other Arab leader will make peace with Israel. It will never happen. It cannot possibly happen.
I’d like to suggest that history tells us it just might happen. Remember, too, that the Arabic and Hebrew greetings are nearly identical, salaam and shalom—both of which mean “peace.” That has not been the region’s history, but it might yet be its destiny. Only a fool would hazard a prediction because, as you will recall from Chapter 1, the scorpion said, “This is the Middle East.”
The Least You Need to Know
The Arab states have been unable to use oil as a “weapon” for decades; nevertheless, the resource is finite, and the situation could possibly revert to what it was in the 1970s when panic caused long gas lines and high prices.
Battles have long been fought over water rights in the Middle East and might be the most likely cause of a future war.
The most serious danger to Israel and some of the Arab states is the proliferation of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons, as well as long-range missiles.
Terrorism remains the most immediate danger to Israel and is likely to continue to be a threat.
It is easy to find reasons why the Middle East might go up in smoke, but one can also find some hopeful signs that hold out the possibility of peace.
Appendix A
Timeline of Middle East History
ca. 3000 B.C.E.
The dawn of “history” (Sumer, Egypt).
ca. 2000–1750 B.C.E.
Old Babylonian period.
ca. 2000–1700 B.C.E.
Israel’s patriarchal period.
ca. 2000–587 B.C.E.
Context of ancient Israelite religion.
ca. 1850/1750/1700 B.C.E.
Abraham and Sarah, Isaac and Ishmael; famine forces Israelites to migrate to Egypt.
ca. 1900–1400 B.C.E.
Old Assyrian period.
ca. 1250–1200 B.C.E.
Exodus from Egypt, Sinai, Canaan entry.
ca. 1200 B.C.E.
Sea peoples invade Egypt and Syro-Palestine.
ca. 1200–1050/1000 B.C.E.
Period of the judges (Israel).
ca. 1150–900 B.C.E.
Middle Babylonian period.
ca. 1050–450 B.C.E.
Hebrew prophets (Samuel–Malachi).
ca. 1030–1010 B.C.E.
Saul (transitional king).
ca. 1000–587 B.C.E.
Monarchical period in Israel.
ca. 1010–970 B.C.E.
&nb
sp; David, making Jerusalem his capital.
ca. 970–931 B.C.E.
Solomon and the building of the First Temple.
ca. 931 B.C.E.
Secession of Northern Kingdom (Israel) from Southern Kingdom (Judah).
900–612 B.C.E.
Neo-Assyrian period.
722/721 B.C.E.
Northern Kingdom (Israel) destroyed by Assyrians; 10 tribes exiled.
612–538 B.C.E.
Neo-Babylonian (“Chaldean”) period.
ca. 600–580 B.C.E.
Judean prophets Jeremiah and Ezekiel.
587–586 B.C.E.
Southern Kingdom (Judah) and First Temple destroyed; Babylonian exile.
ca. 538 B.C.E.–70 C.E.
Judaism after the Babylonian exile.
538–333 B.C.E.
Persian period.
538 B.C.E.
Edict of Cyrus (first return from exile).
520–515 B.C.E.
Jerusalem Second Temple built.
450–400 B.C.E.
Reformation led by Ezra and Nehemiah.
333–331 B.C.E.
Alexander the Great conquers Palestine.
ca. 320–168 B.C.E.
Judaism under Greek Ptolemies and Seleucids.
ca. 230–146 B.C.E.
Coming of Rome to the East Mediterranean.
166–160 B.C.E.
Jewish Maccabean revolt against restrictions on practice of Judaism and desecration of the Temple.
142–129 B.C.E.
Jewish autonomy under Hasmoneans.
63 B.C.E.
Rome (Pompey) annexes Palestine.
ca. 146 B.C.E.–400 C.E.
Rule of Rome.
37–34 B.C.E.
Herod the Great ( Jewish Roman ruler of Palestine).
6 C.E.
Rome establishes direct rule of prefects in Judea.
ca. 13 B.C.E.–after 41 C.E.
Philo Judaeus of Alexandria.
Before 4 B.C.E.–ca. 30 C.E.
Jesus “the Christ.”
30–311 C.E.
Early Christian period of development.
ca. 50–125 C.E.
Christian New Testament writings.
66–73
First Jewish revolt against Rome.
70–400/600 C.E.
Rabbinic Jewish period of Talmud development.
70
Destruction of Jerusalem and the Second Temple.
73
Last stand of Jews at Masada.
132–135
Bar Kokhba rebellion (second Jewish revolt).
ca. 200
Jerusalem renamed; Jews forbidden to dwell there; Mishnah (Jewish oral law) compiled/edited under Judah the Prince.
303
Violent persecution of Christians by Emperor Diocletian.
312/313
Emperor Constantine embraces Christianity.
313–636
Byzantine rule.
to 311
Sporadic persecution of Christianity by Rome.
330
Christian development of Jerusalem under Constantine and Helena.
380/391
Christianity becomes the religion of Roman Empire.
ca.
400 Commentary on the Mishnah-Jewish Palestinian Talmud edited.
ca.
400–600 Jewish Babylonian Talmud edited.
410
Rome sacked by Visigoths.
ca. 570–632
Muhammad (“the Prophet” of Islam).
ca. 610
Prophetic call and start of Quranic revelations.
614
Persian invasion.
622
The hegira (emigration) from Mecca to Medina.
630
Capitulation of Mecca; rededication of the Kaaba.
632–661
The four “rightly guided caliphs” of Islam.
638
Jews permitted to return to Jerusalem under Islam.
661
Assassination of Ali (last of the four).
661–750
Umayyad dynasty of Islam in Damascus (Syria).
669, 674
Muslim attacks on Christian Constantinople.
680
Massacre of Ali’s son Husayn and Shiites (Iraq).
691
Dome of the Rock built on site of First and Second Temples by Caliph Abd el-Malik.
711
Muslim forces attack Spain successfully.
732
Islam repulsed at Tours (France), gateway to Europe.
750–1258
Abbasid dynasty of Islam in Baghdad (Iraq)—the golden age of Islamic culture.
ca. 800
Caliph Harun al-Rashid rules in “1001 Nights” style.
874
Shiite “twelvers” arise.
ca. 950–1150
Golden age in Spain (Islamic Umayyad dynasty).
969
Founding of Cairo by the Islamic Shiite Fatimid dynasty in Egypt.
1095–1291
Crusades (Christian warfare with Islam in Palestine).
1099
Crusaders (European Christians) capture Jerusalem.
1171
Saladin (1138–1193) overthrows Fatimid Dynasty in Egypt.
1187
Saladin (Muslim) recaptures Jerusalem from crusaders.
1227
Death of Genghis Khan (roving Mongol conqueror).
1254–1517
Mamluk Islamic rule (new dynasty) in Egypt.
1258
Fall of Islamic Abbasid dynasty to Hulagu (Mongol).
1291
Expulsion of Christian Crusaders from Syria.
1291–1516
Mamluk rule.
Fourteenth century
Rise of the Ottoman Muslim dynasty in Turkey.
1400
Damascus sacked by Timurlane.
1453
Fall of Constantinople (Istanbul) to Ottoman Muslims.
1492
Christian expulsion of Muslim Moors from Spain.
1492, 1496
Christian expulsion of Jews from Spain and Portugal.
1517
Victory of (Muslim Ottoman Turk) Selim I over Egypt.
1520–66
Sulayman I, “the Magnificent,” rules.
ca. 1750
Wahhabi “fundamentalist” movement arises in Islam.
1798
Napoleon, Battle of the Pyramids in Islamic Egypt.
1801–04
Muslim Wahhabis capture Mecca and Medina, raid Karbala.
1869
Suez Canal built.
1882
British occupation of Muslim Egypt.
1882–1903
First Aliyah (large-scale immigration to Israel), mainly from Russia.
1896
Theodore Herzl publishes The Jewish State (Zionism).
1897
First Jewish Zionist congress convened by Theodore Herzl in Basel, Switzerland; Zionist Organization founded.
1904–14
Second Aliyah, mainly from Russia and Poland.
1908
Revolution by “Young Turks” under Ottomans.
1909
First kibbutz, Degania, founded in Israel.
1914–18
World War I.
1916
Start of Arab revolt against Ottoman Turkish rule.
1917
British capture Baghdad.
1917
Four hundred years of Ottoman rule ended by British conquest.
1917
The Balfour Declaration favors Jewish Palestinian state.
1918
Damascus taken by T. E. Lawrence and Arabs.
1919–23
Third Aliyah, mainly from Russia.
1921
Kingdoms of Iraq and Jordan established.
1922
Great Britain granted Man
date for Palestine by League of Nations.
1922
Transjordan set up on three fourths of Palestine, leaving one fourth for the Jewish national home.
1924–32
Fourth Aliyah, mainly from Poland.
1923
Overthrow of Ottoman Muslim rule by “Young Turks” (Kemal Ataturk) and establishment of secular state.
1924
Caliphate officially abolished.
1925–79
Pahlavi dynasty in Persia (Iran: 1935).
1929
Muslim Brotherhood founded in Egypt by Sheikh Hassan el-Banna.
1932
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia established.
1933–39
Fifth Aliyah, mainly from Germany.
1933
Adolf Hitler becomes chancellor of Germany.
The Complete Idiot's Guide to Middle East Conflict Page 52