“So,” said Holt, “if these pose no threat to humans and only minor inconveniences to our way of life, why is the SWPC now issuing warnings about new solar flares, when they didn’t even mention them in passing prior to the previous events?”
“I’m afraid what we’re now going to encounter is not simply a solar flare. And, I think the SWPC is acting on direct orders from the White House to give this warning without, hopefully, causing panic.
“I think what our observatories, and others around the world, have detected is a CME, a coronal mass ejection. CMEs are solar flares on steroids, if I may put it in such terms. We have small CMEs on a regular basis. They are what cause the aurora borealis and aurora australis, commonly referred to as the northern and southern lights. How that occurs is not important here; just that CMEs are not new to us.
“There is some scientific evidence that seems to indicate that a mega-CME may have hit the Earth in 9,700BC, bringing about the end of the ice age and, not to be overly dramatic, incinerating the flora and fauna. In addition, a large CME struck the Earth in 1859, the last we’ve recorded. The geomagnetic storm produced by the CME was so strong the telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed; in some cases giving telegraph operators electric shocks. It has been estimated that if a similar event were to occur to today’s world economy the cost would be $2.6 trillion. In 1859, of course, they did not have a developed electrical grid or appliances like we have today.
“That was a long time ago,” interjected Holt. “Have there not been any similar events since?”
“Well,” replied Niedringhausen, “we had a near miss back on July 22, 2012. On that date a large plasma cloud, or CME, tore through the Earth orbit. Had the solar storm hit our orbit one week earlier, it would have hit us. Had that occurred we could still be picking up the pieces. According to our scientists, it was one of the strongest in recorded history. They believe it was stronger than the 1859 event and could have caused damage 20 times greater than hurricane Katrina. It did wipe out a NASA Stereo Probe; STEREO is an acronym for Solar Terrestrial Observatory spacecraft of which there are two: one ahead of Earth in its orbit and the other trailing behind. These two satellites monitor activity on the Sun. Of course, it was the trailing one that had the misfortune of being in the location Earth had been one-week earlier and its circuitry was fried shortly after it detected the solar eruption. We haven’t recorded any such events since then though eruptions are continually occurring on the Sun; they’re just not aimed our way.
“A CME is a momentary event, in that its direct effects last only a matter of minutes. Typically it comprises millions of tons of material in the form of a cloud of charged particles, also known as ‘plasma’ which, if directed toward the Earth, could travel at a speed of up to one-million miles per hour. That means it can make the 93-millon mile journey to the Earth in just three to four days.
“Astronomers and astrophysicists, like myself, believe the effects of this particular plasma cloud will be seen, or felt, in New York at around 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time. It appears the initial effects will occur over North America and spread east and west, and north and south, from here until it has completely encircled the globe.”
Bishop stated the obvious, “That means about 4:00 p.m. here, this afternoon.”
“If it takes 3-4 days to reach the Earth, why are we just learning about it now,” continued Holt?
“I am sure the first sign of a CME was detected by scientists as a halo around the Sun. That halo simply indicated that the ejection was either toward the Earth or away from it. If it was going at right angles to the Earth-Sun line there would be no halo. Then they had to gauge by refracted light whether or not the CME was really headed toward Earth and, if so, at what speed, and potentially what magnitude of mass it contained. This is only speculation on my part, of course, as I was not involved in the early stages of its detection,” he added.
“I am also sure that a great deal of political discussion was held between the President and his advisors as to how much information was to be released, and when, in order not to cause unnecessary panic. As I said, most CMEs cause no harm to humans. Even if a large amount of ultra-violet light manages to get through our atmosphere, the worst we would experience might be a bad sunburn. And, maybe, the hairs on our arms and head would stand up as a result of the electricity in the air. So, I think this was probably a consideration.”
“Is there a chance we could experience a CME of the magnitude of the BC or 1859 event, or even the 2012 near miss,” Holt asked?
“Well, of course, there is always a chance,” he responded, “but it would be pure speculation on my part to speak to its likelihood. The BC event obviously is the most unlikely as there is no evidence that there has been such an event in the 11,000 years since it presumably occurred.
“In cases like the 1859 event, the geomagnetic storm can induce electrical currents in long metal structures, like power lines and oil/gas pipelines, and can cause the buildup of electrical charges in satellites, which could damage or destroy them. Uncontrolled or errant electricity, of course, is problematic in varying degrees to our infrastructure, machinery, and appliances.
“If a truly massive CME hit the Earth, something greater than the 1859 event but less than the BC event, and I am not in any way implying that is the case today, it could, for all practical purposes, destroy the world’s electricity distribution systems, which could be, more or less, permanent. There would be massive damage to our generating and distribution facilities which could take decades to repair, assuming the essential parts were available. Since manufacturing capabilities would have been wiped out, it could take generations before we could recreate those capabilities.”
“So, what are your recommendations, Dr. Niedringhausen?”
“Well, this may seem a bit oversimplified, but I think the best thing to do is to stay indoors during the event. A metal building would be the safest place because the static electricity produced by the CME would flow around the building, not through it. The effects normally pass in a matter of minutes, say five, and once the CME has circled the globe the plasma cloud shoots on off into space on the opposite side of the globe from which it started; meaning somewhere in the Middle East: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, would be the last to feel its effects.
“Continuing with your previous question about being prepared, I think we have to assume that if there are electrical outages, as we have seen with severe weather occurrences over the past year or so, we need to have water, food, and light of some kind, to carry us over for a few days. We need to accept that we will not have telephone service to call for help and we need to be prepared to be somewhat self-sufficient for a bit. If you need medications, you need to head to the pharmacy, now.
“Also, as we know from other weather phenomena that disrupt power, sometimes we get power surges that can adversely affect electronic devices: like computers, clocks, etc., anything that has an electronic component to it. I suggest you unplug these devices and not plug them back in until electric service is restored. Once the geomagnetic storm has passed you can use generators to provide electricity until power is restored, if you have one, but do not have anything running on generators during the CME. Even battery operated appliances can be affected due to the high level of electrons in the air, if the CME is strong enough. It is better to be safe than sorry!”
“What has the federal government done to get prepared?” asked Holt.
“Well, I think they have already told their communications satellites and the space station to shut down to avoid damage to their electrical circuits and I am sure they have issued an order to shut down all the nuclear facilities in the U.S. In fact, I am sure the I.A.E.A. has issued strong advice to all its member nations. Without electricity to operate its cooling pumps and systems the back-up generators might not last long enough to do the job. Additionally, all countries have been advised to ground all commercial air traffic and all ships to seek ports. Without satell
ites the GPS and guidance systems on ships and planes will no longer function. And, as is always the case where the potential for disaster is evident, the President has placed all National Guards on alert and all emergency response agencies have gone on their highest priority alert, as well. Without telephone communications, however, only two-way radio communication devices on battery or generator systems will be operational following the CME.
“Last, but not least, without electricity for pumps, gasoline will be in short supply, meaning just what you have in your tank. And the same applies to water. So, conserve, which means, as I said earlier, shelter in place,” he concluded.
“Thank you Dr. Niedringhausen. I guess it goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway,” offered Holt, ”Do not panic. Conserve your water by filling your sinks and tubs and keep your refrigerators closed as much as possible. Without electricity, unless you have a generator, your refrigerators will not be able to cool and food will spoil over time. Which brings up another point: if you use a generator make sure it is well ventilated, as carbon dioxide emissions are dangerous inside any structure.
“We will come back on the air to bring you updates for as long as we can, maybe even through the entire event, depending on the severity of the electrical interruption.
“For now, this is Lester Holt reporting to you from NBC Headquarters at Rockefeller Center in New York.”
◘ ◘ ◘ ◘ ◘
The tears welling in Tara’s eyes were now leaking and running down her cheeks. She was trying, mostly successfully, to hold back the sobs that were rising in her throat because she didn’t want to scare the children. They really hadn’t paid any attention to what Lester Holt was reporting and were content now to watch the cartoons that had resumed on the television.
Tanner squeezed Tara’s hand and whispered, “Everything’s going to be all right, Sunshine,” again using the same term of endearment that his father used with Carly. “We’re forewarned and we’ll be prepared. And, we’re here with family so we won’t have to worry about how they’re doing.”
“Well,” said Bishop, “ it looks like we have about six hours to get ready and I’ll be damned if I’m going to let some solar flare, CME, XYZ or whatever interfere with our Morningside Mavericks barbecue tomorrow. We’ve been doing this for 15 years and it’s not going to stop now. We’ll just do it without electricity, if it comes to that. You know how these talking heads can be, they have to build an ant hill into a mountain just so they get air time and improve their ratings. We’ll be just fine!”◘
Chapter 4
The Morningside Mavericks
Bishop knew everyone who lived on Morningside Drive; he had sold all the property to the individual landowners initially and then watched with interest as they built their homes along the street. Only three of the homes were owned now by their original tenants and he had been involved in most of their resales. The property on Raintrail Road had changed hands so many times that he hadn’t kept up with who owned what, but he knew that most, if not all of them, were absentee owners. Some were rented but most were vacation homes. The property between Raintrail Road and Highway 179 was now filled with several apartment or condo developments, just as he had originally foreseen, the largest being the Oak Creek Estates, Nizhoni Village, and the Oak Creek Estados Apartments.
At the west end of Morningside Drive, where it intersected with Starlight Way, was the Chapman’s: Paul and Irene and their son Philip, who had just graduated from Red Rock High School. Paul’s parents had been the first to buy a lot and build a home back in 1975. When they passed away Paul inherited the home. Paul and Irene own and operate the local Chevron station and have a thriving auto repair business behind the storefront and pumps. They are both in their early 40s; good, hardworking people, active in the local Presbyterian Church and first in line when the less fortunate in the Village need help.
Though Philip has been well-trained by his father in auto mechanics, his real passion is electronics. His bedroom looks like a sophisticated computer lab. When he wasn’t buying computer equipment he was saving his money to attend Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff, starting in the fall, majoring in Electrical Engineering. He had talked his parents into installing solar panels on their roof to reduce their reliance on purchased electricity and had installed a wind turbine so they could generate electricity even when it was dark.
The next four houses east of Chapman’s were all built in the late ‘70s and had changed hands several times. They were now owned by seniors who traveled often and only used the Village as their jumping off spot. All were on the road now, somewhere, visiting family or friends or just sightseeing. Two of them had motorhomes.
Then came Bishop’s home. Though he’d owned the property since he originally subdivided the area in 1971, he hadn’t built a home on it until 2000. After Tanner had grown up and left, he and Carly had decided it was time to move from their larger home in Sky Mountain Ranch, a subdivision in Yavapai County roughly half way between the Village of Oak Creek and the city limits of Sedona, and built their smaller dream home on Morningside Drive.
His next door neighbors to the east had been the Bidwell’s, but they had since moved to California to live closer to their daughter and grandchildren, and the home was now occupied by Jack (68) and Celeste (63) Lloyd.
If Bishop was the energetic, take-no-prisoners leader on Morningside, Jack Lloyd was the intellectual. He had retired after 32 years with IBM in Austin, Texas and had moved to the Village in 2008. They had no children. He started a small computer business operating out of his home known as The Senior Geek, which immediately took off, and she established a small business teaching quilting and knitting. Their home became a focal point for the area’s quilters and knitters and Jack became “the man to call” when you had computer problems; and they quickly assimilated into the life of the Village.
It seemed that Jack knew a lot about a lot of things and when it came to current technology he was way ahead of the average techie. The southeast facing slope of his home’s roof was covered with solar panels by which he generated enough electricity to run everything in his house and put extra energy on the electrical grid. Because air conditioning was not required, due to the usually mild days and cool nights, there was no big summertime drain on energy as there was in other locations; like Phoenix.
Next to the Lloyds was the home of the Alberts, a couple in their 80s who traveled a lot and were currently out of the country.
The next to last house on the street belonged to the most recent addition to the neighborhood, the Brenners. They had purchased the home in 2012 from the Pattersons, who had moved into a retirement home in Prescott. Travis (68) and Melanie (65) had moved to VOC from Kansas City, Mo. when he retired from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, after 25 years. He had started as a Field Agent and worked his way up to Director of the Special Projects Division. He was a pilot and owned his own 1965 Mooney aircraft. He had flown into the Sedona Airport numerous times on business for the USDA over the years and, like Bishop, had fallen in love with the red rocks and the laid-back lifestyle. He still did consulting work for the USDA and flew to Phoenix often for meetings.
What Jack Lloyd was to electronics, Travis was to gardening. He and Melanie maintained a large garden as well as a hydroponic greenhouse worthy of a small commercial operation, from which they pretty well supplied their neighbors with fresh fruit and vegetables year round. The lean-to style greenhouse was 12 feet by 16 feet and stood 9.5 feet high on the high side of the roof slanting down to 7 feet on the low side. It was made of clear polycarbonate on the sidewalls and tinted double-wall polycarbonate for the roof. It was built on an aluminum frame of sections that bolted together for ease of assembly and disassembly. It had an aluminum bench with a raised shelf, across one end for starter plants and potted plants, and then two shelf-less units down either side of the structure and down the middle, leaving walkways on both sides. The remaining space at the doorway end of the greenhouse was used for potted fr
uit trees. The high side-wall was used for climbing plants, like beans, peas, cucumbers, and summer squash, while the low side-wall was used for herbs and blueberries and strawberries. Tomato baskets hung from the ceiling. The greenhouse was equipped with operable ventilation shutters on each side and in the roof, as well as a circulating fan. In the winter he had a bench-mounted heating unit.
Travis had a green thumb and could grow almost anything. In fact, all of the women on the block had a garden of one size or another and all of them collected rain water in 55-gallon plastic drums to help water the gardens. Travis also had a bit of the techno-bug in him, using solar panels on his house roof to take advantage of the Arizona sun that provided the electricity to run the pump that watered his hydroponic garden and the circulator fans and heater that kept the greenhouse from getting too hot in the summer and too cold in the winter. He also had a small wind turbine as a backup for the evenings and days the sun wasn’t shining.
Sinagua Rising: A story of survival after a worldwide catastrophe Page 3