by Dale Brown
“Hard to say, sir, ” Stone replied. “The Communist movement in the Philippines has very close ties to the mainland Chinese, but as far as I know, the link is only ideological. Until the current regime got into power, there wasn’t any direct contact between the Philippine Communists and the Chinese. But I’ve never heard of the Chinese ships operating so close to Palawan before, especially not a destroyerand especially not the EF5 class. It’s their newest, most modern and wellequipped model, and they’re risking a lot driving that big boy around in those shallow waters around Palawan.”
“What do you mean, the current regime?”
“Teguina, the First Vice President, ” Stone replied. “He’s the leader of the pro-Communist National Democratic Front. Some say he’s the leader of the main Communist armed opposition, called the New People’s Army, that’s been operating in the outlying provinces for the past several years. Teguina has been active in strengthening economic and cultural ties with China over the past few years; China has become a big trading partner with the Philippines and the United States. But it has been suggested that Teguina is working not only to strengthen economic ties to China, but military and political ties as well.”
“China and the Philippines?” Tyler remarked. “Is that really possible?”
“Very possible, sir, ” Stone confirmed. “The Philippines have a large population of ethnic Chinese, and mainland Chinese own several large businesses and banks there. But more importantly, China sees itself as the protector of world Communism these days. With the Soviet Union becoming more democratic and capitalist every year, China is the last and perhaps the greatest exporter of Communism in the world. I’d say the Philippines are very fertile ground for them.” He went on. “I doubt Teguina’s had anything to do with this Chinese fleet off Palawan or the nuclear explosion, but because of his presence in the Philippine government and his relations with the PRC, this could turn out to be a lot more complex than it is right now. “What do you mean?”
“My guess is we probably won’t see a total condemnation of the Chinese from the Philippine government, ” Stone said. “I don’t know any details, of course, but when it comes time to point the finger, you won’t see all the fingers pointing at China-you’ll see a few pointed at President Mikaso.”
“Mikaso? Why?” “Mikaso is popular, but perceived as weak, ” Stone said. “Teguina is considered a strong leader. Mikaso was also too friendly with the United States. Although Mikaso is much more of a nationalist than Teguina, Teguina’s call for eliminating all U.S. presence in the Philippines was a strong stand that most Filipinos liked to hear.” Stone decided against injecting his own reservations about Teguina into the discussion, but remembered all too well the look in Teguina’s eye that last day at Clark. “I still don’t get it, ” Tyler said with rising exasperation. “Why would Mikaso suffer by having the Chinese explode a nuke near Palawan?” Just as Stone was about to answer, the poll was completed and the situation briefing began. Five minutes later, the briefing concluded with no mention of the Chinese destroyer or its weaponry. Space Command or the Defense Intelligence Agency refused to comment on the origin of the explosion. Fine-Tyler would tell them himself. “General-Tyler at SAC, ” Tyler said, interrupting the Space Command briefer. “My staff expert here has possibly determined the origin of that nuclear detonation.” There was a bit of a pause, then: “Go ahead, SAC.”
“China. Satellite imagery confirmed their presence in the area, and my expert reports that the Chinese ships seen in the satellite imagery carry nuclear weapons “Defense Intelligence here, ” a voice chimed in. “We have no information of any Chinese vessels carrying nuclear weapons in the South China Sea. In fact the idea is ludicrous.” Tyler clicked on the intercom to Stone. “You sure of your data, Rat Killer?”
“Positive, General, ” Stone said. “My intelligence may be a few weeks old, but it’s reliable.” The intercom clicked off, then on, and this time Stone could hear the entire conversation on the network. “My expert maintains that the Chinese vessel in the satellite imagery we’ve just received carries nuclear-tipped antiship missiles. The vessel is a Chinese destroyer, the Ho ng Lung, which is the flagship of a large patrol fleet that operates in the Spratly Islands.”
“JCS copies, SAC, ” came the reply after a few moments: the reply came from the chairman himself, General Curtis, and he seemed curiously unsurprised at the revelation. “What is the current status of your units at this time, General Tyler?”
“Sir, I’m showing one hundred percent of the force fully mission ready, ” Tyler said, checking the connectivity readout of all his SAC units on the big board. The force is currently under posture four, under my authority. However, please be aware that the current SlOP OPLAN has no contingencies for operations against China or in the east Asian region. We hold no Chinese targets at risk.”
“Understood, ” Curtis replied. “It may be premature to declare an A-hour, however. We will defer that decision for the NCA when we call the Charlie conference.”
“Discharge of nuclear weapons automatically invokes at least a DEFCON Three level, ” Tyler said. “I recommend we proceed with that. Undoubtedly the Russians and the Chinese will respond by increasing their readiness levels as well; we should take the first step and then re-evaluate the situation.” “We’d have time for a discussion about contingency planning at a later time, ” General Curtis said. “Right now I want recommendations for the NCA as to the status of our deterrent forces.”
“SAC recommends DEFCON Three, posture four, ” Tyler said. “Forces concurs, ” General Jackson, commander of the Army Forces Command, said. As the largest single military command, the Army needed the most time to generate its units to go on a wartime footing and therefore had an equal say in whether a higher readiness state should be declared. “COMSUBFLT concurs, ” Admiral Towland, commander of strategic nuclear submarines, added. There was a slight pause, followed by a cryptic “Stand by” from General Curtis. Tyler found his palms moist and clammy. He rubbed them on his warmup-suit pants to dry them. The Chairman of the JCS came back on: “All units, this is RENEGADE. Implement DEFCON Three. Posture will be no higher than that implemented by DEFCON Three. Stand by.” A few moments later, a warbling tone was heard over Tyler’s headset and through the interphone system. The DEFCON lights above the big board changed from “4” to “3” and all of the Command Center status lights changed to red Top Secret indications. The Joint Chiefs of Staff communications center had assembled a coded message and broadcast it to all of the major commands. When received in the Essential Elements section, the message was decoded, checked, and the checklist for that order run immediately. “What do we got, Audrey?” Tyler asked. “DEFCON Three, posture three, ” the SAC senior controller replied. “No A-hour specified. Time-control clock start in five… four… three… two… one… now.” Just then, the second event-timer above the big board started counting. “Message acknowledged to JCS, checked and verified, standing by for retransmit.”
“Retransmit, ” Tyler ordered. The message ordering an increased state of readiness would now be sent to all SAC alert units in the United States. The DEFCON change would also affect nuclear-capable Tactical Air Command units in Europe and Asia, all of the Navy’s ballistic missile submarines, and the Sixth and Eighth Armies in Europe and Korea, which were some of the few Army units with deployed nuclear weapons. After acknowledgment messages were received from all the major military commands, General Curtis said to the poll participators: “I will convene a Charlie conference as soon as possible. Have a breakdown of the pre-planned options for this contingency, along with your further recommendations. RENEGADE out.” The connection was then terminated. “So what do we do now?” Stone asked. “Run the checklists, ” Tyler said. “It’s not unlike flying a fighter-we follow the checklist and it generally keeps us out of trouble.” A yellow light flashed on the telephone beside Tyler. “Well, here we go.” He sighed. Before he picked up the phone, he turned and requested that iced tea be b
rought for him and Stone. “This is going to take awhile, ” he predicted. “We do it a little bass-ackwards, but it usually works. “Curtis does a Charlie conference to direct each service branch to review the pre-planned contingency OPLANS, and the JCS decides which one to run. Then Curtis’ll go to the President and SECDEF face-to-face and make his pitch. The President usually signs off on the plan just to get the ball rolling-then, when his Cabinet, the Congress, and the press find out, shit hits the fan. But that’s not our concern.”
“Where do you need me?” Stone asked. “Right with me, Rat Killer, ” Tyler replied. “You’re my resident Philippine expert. We built a new Philippine contingency plan when Clark closed, but I’ll need you to look it over, tell me if it’s still valid in the face of what the Chinese have out there.”
“I’m ready, ” Stone said. “Is there any time to get out of these sweats, though? I’m not sure the staff will be able to work closely with me if I stink like an old pair of sneakers.”
“Don’t worry about it, ” Tyler said, a grim smile on his face. “Before long, everyone here will be just as nervous and sweaty as you are-except it won’t be from exercise, it’ll be from good ol’ fear.” THE MALACANANG PRESIDENTIAL PALACE MANILA, THE PHILIPPINES SAME TIME Philippine First Vice President Daniel Teguina paced restlessly as he, the Second Vice President Samar, and the Cabinet awaited the arrival of President Mikaso in the presidential conference chamber. Everyone was tense and worried. A few were terrified. All had rushed to the presidential palace immediately after being advised of the disaster in Palawan. Finally, President Arturo Mikaso entered the conference chamber. Unlike the others gathered, who were dressed casually, Mikaso was in a dark-gray business suit, polished shoes, and a tie. His appearance was so crisp that a few wondered silently if he hadn’t just dressed. “Gentlemen…” Mikaso said, his old body moving as quickly as it could into the room. “Please take your seats.” The elder statesman stiffly took his at the center of the oblong maple conference table and the other Cabinet members immediately sat down. “As you know, a terrible tragedy has occurred, ” Mikaso began. “Less than thirty minutes ago, a patrol task force from this country was attacked by a large Chinese naval patrol off the coast of Palawan.” The Cabinet members exchanged looks of complete shock. They’d been advised of a major sea disaster, but given no details. Murmurs went around the room. Teguina immediately spoke up. “A Chinese naval patrol? Judging by the state of our naval force, I assume we were beaten badly?” Mikaso nodded sadly. “We were indeed. We’ve suffered serious losses-“
“Naturally, ” Teguina interrupted. “What do we have to fight with? Outdated, expensive, useless American equipment that we were suckered into buying.” Mikaso glared at Teguina. “Daniel, now is hardly the time for editorializing. There are far more serious considerations at hand.” Mikaso looked at the men gathered in the room and said, “Gentlemen, the worst part of this confrontation, which involved two of our F-4E fighters, was that the Chinese launched a nuclear missile against our force.” Gasps went around the table, followed by immediate cries of outrage which echoed off the walls of the conference room. Everyone was talking at once until Mikaso rapped his knuckles on the table. “This has not been confirmed by us yet, ” Mikaso said, “but the detonation was detected by American and Japanese monitoring stations.” Again everyone started talking at once, their voices reaching a crescendo of questions of concern: What about the fallout? The food and water supplies? How could the Chinese have justified a nuclear-tipped missile? Did it mean this was a prelude to a full-scale invasion? Question piled upon question. Mikaso tried to calm them down. “We have no definite reports of an invasion, ” Mikaso said, “although the Chinese warships are in Ulugan Bay on Palawan, being guarded by our Army.”
“But how did this happen?” demanded Second Vice President J~~e Samar. “Civilized nations don’t just set off nukes!” Mikaso nodded in agreement. “One would think. However, this was a battle between our forces and theirs. They ventured into the neutral zone, were going to attack a drilling platform, and we opened fire.”
“What was a drilling platform doing there anyway?” Teguina asked, even though he knew. “Those islands are not for exploration or drilling. The Chinese have long considered that their territory, even though we don’t. Why were we provoking the Chinese?”
“We weren’t, ” Mikaso said pointedly. “Exploration is allowed within ten miles of the boundaries of the zone, Daniel. Learn your treaties. If you did, you’d know that the Spratly Island agreement not only allows that, but also prohibits a deadly force to patrol the zone. Armed warships must stay on their own side. We’ve seen how the Chinese violated that in the past-the previous incident was just a few months ago. I authorized our forces to protect themselves if the Chinese prepared to attack again, and that’s what they did.” Teguina shook his head. “Why don’t you tell them who we were really protecting? Unless I’m mistaken, it was an A American-financed company who erected the oil platforms in the zone to begin with.” He looked directly at Mikaso: “A company, I believe, Mr. President, run by one of your relatives?” More murmurs went around the room. “That is beside the point. It’s a Philippine company and they had every right to explore the island and the resources on it.” The two men stared at each other. “What about fallout?” another Cabinet member demanded. Mikaso nodded. “That is our first priority. Daniel, you will immediately dispatch National Guard forces to Palawan to assist in the recovery efforts. In fact, I think the people of Palawan would appreciate seeing you there to help in the effort. Use all available transport assets and-” Teguina pushed back his chair and stood up, something he usually did in Cabinet meetings to stress a point. He leaned over the table, looking at the others seated. “I will be honored to help our fellow Filipinos in Palawan, but there’s one point we’ve dismissed too easily: who really launched that missile?” Rumbling went around the table, and Mikaso pointed his finger at Teguina: “Daniel, I don’t know what you’re up to, but it’s not going to work. I resent the dissension you’re trying to create in the middle of a crisis. It-“
“Yes, sit down!” Second Vice President Samar said. Teguina ignored them. “You say that the Chinese are at fault, but what you really meant to say is that it’s not known who’s to blame for the attack. That nuclear explosion could have just as easily been caused by an American nuclear device, either delivered by covert American forces or by Filipino airmen under orders by the American military or Central Intelligence Agency-“
“What are you talking about, Teguina?” Mikaso snapped angrily, his hands and lips trembling as much from confusion and exhaustion as from fury. “Are you that paranoid? There aren’t any nuclear weapons on Filipino soil, no American airmen, and we did not launch any sort of nuclear attack. It was a Filipino vessel that was destroyed, for God’s sake!”
“Do you deny that there are still American Intelligence agents here in the Philippines?” Teguina asked, his eyes darting between Mikaso and Samar. Mikaso hesitated-only for a moment, but the pause was the answer. The Cabinet officers looked at each other, then at Mikaso with undisguised shock. “Then it is true?” one of the Cabinet officers gasped. “The American consulate is still open, ” Mikaso explained, trying hard to ignore the accusing glances, “and yes, I gave permission for several CIA officials to be stationed here.”
“No, Mr. President… “This is outrageous . . . Samar said. Teguina couldn’t believe it-he had stumbled onto something that at least for the moment overshadowed even the nuclear explosion in Palawan. The American CIA had long been blamed for the Philippines’ internal turmoil, and Mikaso’s admission could, even after all American military personnel had left the country, eventually bring down Mikaso’s government. A common fear among the newly “liberated” Philippine government was that America would leave “moles” in place who would report to Washington and who could easily take over the Filipino government and realign with Washing ton in a coup. The Americans had left easily when ordered out-too easily, many
thought. . “You did this in direct violation of the law, without consulting your Cabinet or Congress?” the Minister of the Interior asked incredulously. “Why weren’t we informed?” another Minister demanded angrily. As the chorus of other voices rose up in angry protest, Daniel Teguina sat back down in his chair, listening and inwardly smiling. Even in the middle of a crisis there was more than one way to skin a cat. . ELLSWORTH AIR FORCE BASE, SOUTH DAKOTA SAME TIME Generals Calvin Jarrel and Brad Elliott had been waiting on the tarmac for the F-23 fighter pilots returning from their Powder Run sortie. Elliott especially was looking forward to giving the pilots some good-natured ribbing about the surprise they encountered with the EB-52 Megafortress that he’d gotten Jarrel to put in the air. Elliott was willing to bet that McLanahan had gotten a big kick out of seeing the F-23 pilots turn and run. Just then a dark-blue staff car pulled up a few parking spaces from where Jarrel and Elliott were standing. Out of the car came Major Harold Briggs, General Elliott’s aide and chief of security. Plugging his ears with his index fingers, he strode toward Elliott clutching a sheet of paper. He handed it to him. Elliott read the note, and Briggs saw the expression on his boss’s face change. “I’ll take you back in my car, General, ” Briggs said loudly over the whine of the nearby jet engines. “Problem?” Jarrel asked. Elliott showed Jarrel the note, keeping the sheet of paper tight in his fingertips-it was stamped Top Secret on both the top and bottom. “Christ, ” was all Jarrel could say. “I’ll give you a ride back to your command post, ” Elliott said. They hopped in the sedan the second Briggs braked to a stop beside them. In the car, Briggs passed out two red-colored vinyl folders, one to each of them. “Full text of the classified FLASH message for you, sir, ” he indicated to Jarrel. “Message from Colonel McLanahan from the Black Knight bomber sortie.” Elliott frowned at the folder he was given and was about to set it unopened on his lap, but Briggs added, “I think you should read it, sir. I think it might have a connection with the DEFCON Three message. There was silence in the sedan for several moments. Then, as though they were thinking the exact same thing, they handed their folders over to each other. “Holy shit, ” Jarrel finally exclaimed. “This NIRTSat thingyour SPO actually thinks this satellite got pictures of a Chinese nuclear attack against a Philippine patrol?” “Well, God knows it was possible, ” Elliott said. “If they had the N1RTSat up there, and it was over the Philippines at the time, it’s more than possible. That might also explain why the satellite went off the air for McLanahan. Except it didn’t go completely off… the thing was alive long enough to download the last of its photos to McLanahan in the B-2 during his bomb run here.”