[…]
The dark ages may return, the Stone Age may return on the gleaming wings of science, and what might now shower immeasurable material blessings upon mankind, may even bring about its total destruction. Beware, I say; time may be short. Do not let us take the course of allowing events to drift along until it is too late. If there is to be a fraternal association of the kind of I have described, with all the express strength and security which both our countries can derive from it, let us make sure that that great fact is known to the world, and that it plays its part in steadying and stabilizing the foundations of peace. There is the path of wisdom. Prevention is better than the cure.
A shadow has fallen upon the scenes so lately lightened by the Allied victory. Nobody knows what Soviet Russia and its Communist international organization intends to do in the immediate future, or what are the limits, if any, to their expansive and proselytizing tendencies. I have a strong admiration and regard for the valiant Russian people and for my wartime comrade, Marshall Stalin. There is deep sympathy and goodwill in Britain -- and I doubt not here also -- towards the peoples of all the Russias and a resolve to persevere through many differences and rebuffs in establishing lasting friendships. We understand the Russian need to be secure on her western frontiers by the removal of all possibility of German aggression. We welcome Russia to her rightful place among the leading nations of the world. We welcome her flag upon the seas. Above all, we welcome, or should welcome, constant, frequent, and growing contacts between the Russian people and our own peoples on both sides of the Atlantic. It is my duty however, for I am sure you would not wish me to not misstate the facts as I see them to you. It is my duty to place before you certain facts about the present position in Europe.
From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic an iron curtain has descended across the Continent…”
In March, Stalin replied to the speech in Pravda – the words means “Truth” in Russian, if you didn’t know. The Marxist Internet Archive has this dialog, too, if you want to read it. This one is worth reading in full. Here is how it begins –
“TOWARDS the middle of March, 1946, a “Pravda” correspondent requested J. V. Stalin to clarify a number of questions connected with Mr. Churchill’s speech at Fulton, U.S.A. Below are J. V. Stalin’s replies to the correspondent’s questions.
Question [Pravda]: How do you appraise Mr. Churchill’s latest speech in the United States of America?
Answer [Stalin]: I appraise it as a dangerous act, calculated to sow the seeds of dissension among the Allied States and impede their collaboration.
Question [Pravda]: Can it be considered that Mr. Churchill’s speech is prejudicial to the cause of peace and security?
Answer [Stalin]: Yes, unquestionably. As a matter of fact, Mr. Churchill now takes the stand of the warmongers, and in this Mr. Churchill is not alone. He has friends not only in Britain but in the United States of America as well. A point to be noted is that in this respect Mr. Churchill and his friends bear a striking resemblance to Hitler and his friends.”
Stalin ends his interview,
“I don’t know whether Mr. Churchill and his friends will succeed in organising a new armed campaign against Eastern Europe after the Second World War; but if they do succeed—which is not very probable because millions of plain people stand guard over the cause of peace—it may confidently be said that they will be thrashed, just as they were thrashed once before, 26 years ago.”
The next day, newspapers across the world carried Stalin’s remarks.
In Greece, the newspaper headline was, ‘Stalin calls Churchill a warmonger and accuses him of perpetuating Hitler’s racial theory.’
On 30 March 1946, the Greek tensions blow over into Civil War when members of the Greek People’s Liberation Army attack the police station in Litochoro.
And in case it was unclear before, the Cold War had very much begun.
***
AGREEMENTS… “INTERPRETED”
What the hell is going on here? Aren’t the Russians our friends?
The Wikipedia “Timeline of Events in the Cold War” shows the mix of confusion and violence breaking out across the world –
1946
January: Chinese Civil War resumed between Communist and Nationalist forces.
January 7: The Republic of Austria is reconstituted, with its 1937 borders, but divided into four zones of control: American, British, French, and Soviet.
January 11: Enver Hoxha declares the People's Republic of Albania, with himself as Prime Minister.
February 9: Joseph Stalin makes his Election Speech, in which he states that capitalism and imperialism make future wars inevitable.
February 22: George F. Kennan writes his Long Telegram, describing his interpretation of the objectives and intentions of the Soviet leadership.
March: The Greek Civil War reignites between communists and the conservative Greek government.
March 2: British soldiers withdraw from their zone of occupation in southern Iran. Soviet soldiers remain in their northern sector.
March 6: Winston Churchill warns of the descent of an Iron Curtain across Europe.
April 5: Soviet forces evacuate Iran after a crisis.
July 4: The Philippines gains independence from the United States, and begins fighting communist Huk rebels (Hukbalahap Rebellion).
September 6: In a speech known as the Restatement of Policy on Germany in Stuttgart, James F. Byrnes, United States Secretary of State repudiates the Morgenthau Plan. He states the US intention to keep troops in Europe indefinitely and expresses US approval of the territorial annexation of 29% of pre-war Germany, but does not condone further claims.
September 8: In a referendum, Bulgaria votes for the establishment of a People's Republic, deposing King Simeon II. Western countries dismiss the vote as fundamentally flawed.
September 24: Truman is presented with the Clifford-Elsey Report, a document which listed Soviet violations of agreements with the United States.
September 27: Nikolai Vasilevich Novikov writes a response to Kennan's Long Telegram, known as the 'Novikov Telegram', in which he states that the United States are "striving for world supremacy".
December 19: French landings in Indochina begin the First Indochina War. They are resisted by the Viet Minh communists who want national independence.
So again – be Truman.
Imagine you are Truman.
It’s not clear you ever wanted the job of President, and certainly, as early as 5 years previously, it would be inconceivable to be President. 12 years previous, before being elected to the Senate, the idea of becoming President someday would be downright laughable. Your largest success in your professional life had been your service in World War I, which had broken up a run of constantly recurring failures and missteps.
And now you control the only modern industrial nation that wasn’t devastated by the war, the Atomic bomb, you are a charter signee of the United Nations – which had already become a pale imitation of what it was meant to be, mere minutes after the signatures on the treaty paper were dry.
You know, if you’d been paying closer attention, Stalin tipped his hand a little in his victory address the day after defeating Germany –
“Being aware of the wolfish habits of the German ringleaders, who regard treaties and agreements as empty scraps of paper, we have no reason to trust their words. However, this morning, in pursuance of the act of surrender, the German troops began to lay down their arms and surrender to our troops en masse. This is no longer an empty scrap of paper. This is actual surrender of Germany’s armed forces. True, one group of German troops in the area of Czechoslovakia is still evading surrender. But I trust that the Red Army will be able to bring it to its senses.”
I believe modern psychologists might call this “projection” –
“Wolfish habits… regard treaties and agreements as empty scraps of paper… we have no reason to trust their words… lay down their arms and sur
render [and it’s] no longer an empty scrap of paper… actual surrender… I trust that the Red Army will be able to bring it to its senses.”
Oh, to be sure, the Nazis were terrible liars. But you can read Stalin’s whole psychology on display there – he cared not for agreements. Who has the guns? Who has the soldiers? Scraps of paper? Hah. Guns, not paper; long live Great Stalin, hurrah!
I have one last Cold War document that I recommend as reading on the topic.
Truman Virtual Library: "American Relations With The Soviet Union" (declassified)
The stakes are high, obviously.
The very first item of the Table of Contents, page 1, says –
“INTRODUCTION . . . . Page 1
a. Our ability to resolve present conflict between Soviet and American foreign policies may determine whether there is a permanent peace or a third World War.
b. U.S. policy towards U.S.S.R. will be greatly affected by our knowledge of Soviet policy and activities. A forecast of Soviet future policy towards this country can be based on the manner in which the U.S.S.R. has maintained her agreements with this country, and on recent Soviet activities which vitally affect the security of the United States.”
That’s page 1 and 2. Heavy stuff, huh?
(Spoiler alert: Stalin didn’t honor most of his agreements.)
“Chapter III: Violations of Soviet Agreements with the United States . . . Page 27
a. Soviet-American agreements have been adhered to, “interpreted,” or violated as Soviet officials from time to time have considered it in the best interests of the Soviet Union in accordance with the Soviet policy of increasing their own power at the expense of other nations.
b. A number of specific violations are described in detail. The principle violations concern Germany, Austria, the Balkan countries, Iran, Korea and Lend-Lease Agreements.”
Page 27 begins,
“The Soviet government will not admit that is has violated any of its international engagements. On the contrary, it usually argues vehemently, both at home and abroad, that it scrupulously fulfills its international obligations. It is very prone to charge other nations with violations while indignantly denying or completely ignoring charges that is has committed similar acts.”
There’s a lot of examples, ranging from the trite to the outrageous.
“The Soviet Union’s acquisition of Ruthenia and Bukowina and the dramatic readjustment of Poland’s eastern frontier cannot be reconciled with the Soviet Union’s statement that it desired no territorial changes which were not in accord with the freely expressed wishes of the people concerned. Ruthless suppression of Anti-Soviet political parties in liberated countries of Eastern Europe is a direct violation of the Soviet Union’s promise to respect the right of all people to choose the form of government under which they will live.”
That sort of thing.
So, you're Truman. You’ve got this document in front of you.
There’s a lot of bad stuff in it.
The Russians are not our friends, and are doing a lot of bad stuff, and they’re now using the weapons we lent them, that they promised to return, to arm communist insurgents in liberated countries and suppressing political opposition. (It’s in the linked document.)
So – you’re Truman. What do you do?
***
TEMPORAL CONTROL, FINAL CHAPTER: INFINITE FRONTS
Before I started writing the Temporal Control Series, I already knew how it would go: we would start with World War I, flash backwards in time to the people first figuring out seemingly trivial things like metal coinage, and gradually work our way through examples of key aspects of Temporal Control throughout history, eventually concluding with Truman at the start of the Cold War.
The beginning of the Cold War was one of the most difficult leadership challenges of all time.
Historically, if you had a “second front” open in a war, you were very, very likely to be lost.
Napoleon rolled all his enemies, until the “Spanish ulcer” bled him of his best soldiers. He was unable to simultaneously perform against the combined might of Britain, Spain, and France.
The two-front war drove both Imperial Germany’s and Nazi Germany’s actions in the World Wars, much to their detriment and eventual destruction.
In the American Revolution, Washington’s revolutionary forces stayed in the war barely, just long enough to establish credibility and have Spain and France declare war on Britain. The British Empire likely sooner-or-later would have successfully dispatched Washington’s troops, but they could not contend simultaneously with the French and Spanish.
Part of Lincoln’s genius for diplomacy was keeping the European powers out of invading in favor of the Confederacy. Had the Europeans intervened in the American Civil War, there would be no unified America.
What was the Cold War, then?
War on infinite fronts.
The metaphorical term “home front” was first used during World War I to describe how domestic affairs – particularly industrial production – was just as critical to eventual victory as winning in actual combat on the (physical) Western or Eastern Fronts.
The Cold War took the conflict to the highest of levels: everything would be mobilized and weaponized, anywhere and everywhere possible. Athletic competitions, newspapers and magazines, trade and labor unions (in America, there was a strong anti-Communist left among labor, key to victory in the Cold War)… not to mention backing civil wars covertly… overtly… sending training and material… diplomatic agreements… money… spies, espionage, defectors… using coup d’etats to take over governments… assassinations… film, media, and culture… suppressing competing political parties, legally and illegally… blockades and embargoes… not to mention the potential for the Red Army to send its massive army of tanks and troops across the border into Western Europe at any time.
The way these challenges were navigated by President Truman, all of the American military and civil service, and the various leadership and staff of Allied nations… this is probably one of the most critical case studies and strongest vantage points of all time.
***
INFINITE OPTIONS? FIRST FIGURE OUT WHAT’S ACTUALLY HAPPENING
For Truman, the stakes for being too aggressive in response to the USSR was World War III breaking out – a brutally dreadful occurrence even if the conflict is won, let alone what happens if one is defeated…
He took the time to do Analysis. Kennan’s documents set the tone for the State Department and White House; the classified “American Relations with the Soviet Union” document was a more thorough and analytical document laying out the recent history and synthesizing the Soviet actions.
This step cannot be avoided. You must do analysis. If you have infinite things you could do, you can not successfully chart a good course of action without doing analysis.
It is fairly simple to choose the best course of action if there is only one thing to do.
It is a fairly simple tradeoff if there are only two or three things to optimize between.
If there are infinite things, you will need to do some serious Analysis to even understand your options and the current situation.
Sooner or later, you need to both accurately assess the current situation and what you want to have happen.
You can start from either end of the spectrum. Sometimes you can set a goal and then research how to reach the goal. Other times, there is no goal; and you set guiding policies instead.
Nevertheless, no matter what, you should inventory and do analysis if there are many things at stake that compete for limited resources.
***
TELL ME, PLEASE, WHICH WAY I OUGHT TO GO FROM HERE
“Alice: Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?
The Cheshire Cat: That depends a good deal on where you want to get to.
Alice: I don't much care where.
The Cheshire Cat: Then it doesn't much matter which way you go.
&nbs
p; Alice: ...So long as I get somewhere.
The Cheshire Cat: Oh, you're sure to do that, if only you walk long enough.”
You have done your analysis. Good.
Now you must pick what to prioritize.
You’re always prioritizing, whether you consciously do it or not.
Your time goes somewhere. Whatever you’re doing first in the day, doing on your smartest and highest levels of energy, and whatever you’re spending most time on – that’s being prioritized.
Again, it can’t be stated enough – you’re already prioritizing. If you’re not doing it consciously, and your life isn’t running marvelously, you probably ought to start doing it consciously.
Quoting Drucker again,
“The first practice is to ask what needs to be done. Note that the question is not "What do I want to do?" Asking what has to be done, and taking the question seriously, is crucial for managerial success. Failure to ask this question will render even the ablest executive ineffectual.
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