Ultimatum

by Matthew Glass

  That’s what he said, anyway. But privately his doubts were almost unbearable. The pressure to change tack was enormous. And who was to say he was right to resist? Maybe he wasn’t. But until that moment came, until he decided to change tack—if that indeed was what he was going to do— he couldn’t show a hint of the doubt that he felt. If people detected that, even the faintest sign of it, the pressure would sweep him away. Right now, people had to believe his determination was unshakable. He was going to use the Columbus Day speech to reinforce that impression.

  The auditorium at Princeton seated fifteen hundred. The speech was to be heavily covered, and there were a number of cameras in the hall. About five minutes into the speech, an obviously preplanned, silent walkout began. Students stood up and began to file out. Hundreds of them.

  For a short time, Joe Benton kept going. Then he stopped. He wasn’t going to give them the victory of walking out while the president of the United States was speaking about the most important issue on the planet.

  They weren’t in any hurry. Minute after minute it went on. It must have taken another ten minutes until they were nearly all gone. Benton stood at the lectern, face stern, watching them. As the last of the exiting students made their way up the stairs he began to talk off the cuff.

  “Remember what you’ve just seen here today,” he said to those who remained in the half-empty hall and to the cameras that were streaming his image. “That’s what I’m talking about. That path . . .” he pointed up to one of the doors through which the last students were leaving, “we can all take that path, but it’s the path to defeat. That’s the door. Anyone else here, anyone want to go through that door? Do it now. I respect your right to do it. Do it now. I’ll wait.” He paused for a good ten seconds. “I won’t blame you, in fact I understand you. That’s the easy way. Because if you stay with me, I’m telling you, I’m not taking you down that path.” He stopped again. The last of the exiting students were gone. “All right, I’m taking you through a different door. But I can tell you one thing for sure. If enough of us choose to go that way, that easy way, that’s where we’ll all end up going, whether we want to or not. I can only show you the other door. I can only open it for you. You have to walk there yourselves. Now I trust—I trust—that despite what we have just seen here today, there’s still enough good people in this country to make sure we don’t end up going down that other way. And those people who have gone, I trust that when they see that, they’ll come back and come through this door with us. And they’ll be welcome. Because it’s natural to want to go through the easy door, but I can’t tell you that we should. And I know we won’t. If I didn’t believe that, if I didn’t believe that was the kind of country this is, I would never have run for office. I wouldn’t be standing here before you today.”

  He went back to his prepared speech. As he came off the platform, he didn’t know whether his response to the walkout would play well or badly. When he saw Jodie Ames’s face, he thought it would probably be okay. News streams had cut to the speech as soon as the incident began and commentators were already reporting his handling of it as an exceptional display of presidential poise and steel.

  But although he had managed to deal with the walkout, and even turn it to his purpose as a living demonstration of what he was saying in his speech, the episode had shaken him. Right in front of him, he had seen division.

  If Joe Benton thought of himself as anything, it was a uniter, not a divider of the American people. Yet he had now seen, in microcosm, the greatest fear that any president can have. He was reminded of what John Eales had said about secession. For the first time, under his stewardship, he feared for the republic.

  The second he came off the stage, someone was handing him a phone. It was Larry Olsen, congratulating him on the speech. Determination, leadership, strength. Exactly what was needed in case anyone wondered whether the president still had the stomach for the fight. The message would go not only to the American people, said Olsen, but to the government of China.

  Benton realized why Olsen had called. Olsen knew what other people were saying to the president, he knew that Benton’s determination to carry on was a day-to-day proposition. He had taken to giving him milestones— just hang on another week, another ten days, until this happens, or that happens. Olsen feared the effect this walkout might have. He was desperate to get in first, before others could have their say.

  “Hang in there, sir,” said Olsen. “At least until you’ve been to Japan.”

  ~ * ~

  Tuesday, October 18

  Air Force One, east of Japan

  The briefing book summarized the Japanese position on the Carbon Plan. It covered a range of other issues as well. Benton worked through it carefully. Heather was in the office with him, reading a book.

  There was a knock on the door. Jodie Ames came in.

  “Sorry to disturb you, sir.” Jodie glanced at Heather and smiled briefly. She extended a handheld to the president.

  “What is it, Jodie?”

  “The Chinese government has just released a statement, sir.”

  Benton took the handheld. He nodded Jodie toward a chair and looked at the screen.

  The government of the People’s Republic of China views the unilateral visit of the president of the United States to its region as an aggressive act at this time, coming on the heels of his other actions, and contrary to a spirit of fellowship and common understanding. The actions of the United States government are contrary to respect for the Chinese people and their historical sovereignty. Consequently, the government of the People’s Republic of China has decided on the following measures.

  First: The visits of representatives of the government of the United States to the province of Taiwan is immediately forbidden without permission of the government of the People’s Republic of China.

  Second: The export licenses of certain classes of goods from the People’s Republic of China to destinations within the United States will be reviewed and will now be subject to suspension and cancellation.

  Third: The People’s Bank of China will review its currency holdings and dispose of excess dollar reserves.

  The people of China are united. The people of China will not bow down to the will of any foreign power, but will resist the imperialist aggression of the United States with every part of its will.

  Joe Benton handed the screen to Heather for her to look at.

  “What’s a unilateral visit?” he said to Jodie Ames.

  Ames shrugged.

  “See if the communications guys can get hold of Larry and Alan. And come back in on the call.”

  Ames went out.

  Heather passed back the handheld. “What does it mean?”

  “I don’t know.” Benton looked at the screen again. “It’s strange. I don’t know what it means.”

  Ames came back. “I’ll step out,” said Heather, and she picked up her book and left.

  Ames sat down. “They’ll be on the line shortly.”

  Benton nodded. “So what do I do?” His first speech of the visit would be at a dinner hosted by the Japanese prime minister. “Do I address this tonight?”

  “You could. It’s disproportionate . . . It’s unfortunate. Actions such as these gratuitously threaten the livelihoods of the Chinese people themselves...You wish the Chinese government would step up to its responsibility instead of making threats.” Jodie paused. “Or you might not even want to mention it. Don’t let it overshadow the visit. They’ve interfered in a visit to Japan that has nothing to do with them, and we shouldn’t let them do that.”

  “But it’s going to overshadow it, right? Whatever we do.”

  “In the media. I’m not sure Nakamura would thank you for bringing it into his banquet hall.”

  Benton glanced at the screen of the handheld. What was Wen up to? Why do this now?

  Larry Olsen came online.

  “Have you seen this release?” asked Benton.

  “I’m looking at it r
ight now.”

  “It’s ridiculous. Have they ever claimed they have right of veto over visits in the region? They can’t do that, can they?”

  “Of course not. This is outrageous and not a single country in the world would think otherwise. It’s dumb. Finally Wen’s done something dumb.”

  “Why?”

  “I have no idea. Maybe they genuinely feel destabilized by your being in Japan. Maybe they think Japan’s going to announce it’s signing up. We’ve been covertly spreading that rumor.”

  “And Japan’s been overtly denying it.”

  “Maybe that’s why they think it’s true. Mr. President, I told you, you just had to wait. This is good.”

  Alan Ball came on. “Mr. President. Did I hear someone say this is good?”

  “Al, that was Larry.”

  “Yeah, who else?”

  Benton ignored that. “What do you think?”

  “This is going to hurt,” said Ball. “Exports, the dollar. The market’s going to go crazy.”

  “They’re trying to outsanction us,” said Olsen. “Big deal. They’re prohibiting exports of stuff we were going to prohibit importing anyway.”

  “They’re going to sell down the dollar.”

  “Really? Who’s buying?”

  “Larry, that’s a little glib,” said Benton.

  “They’ve just turned themselves into an aggressor in the eyes of everyone else in the world. That’s worth paying a price for.”

  “They must realize what they’ve done.”

  “They may not.”

  “They’re not stupid.”

  “They’re thinking about other things. Mr. President, this is exactly what we’ve been waiting for.”

  “We’ve had reports of arrests overnight,” said Ball. “More than we’ve seen recently. The Chinese press this morning is crazy. It’ll all be in the daily briefing. Your visit’s being reported like it’s some kind of invasion.”

  “Are American citizens in danger?”

  “No, not as far as we know.”

  “Okay.” Benton was silent for a moment. “What do they want? They want me to turn around and not land in Japan?”

  “No,” said Olsen. “They know they have no right to demand that and you’d never do it. That’s the whole point. They’re not asking you to do something. They’re saying, because you’ve done something, here’s what we’re going to do. It’s a pretext.”

  “Mr. President,” said Ball, “look at the first point. No more visits to Taiwan.”

  “I don’t understand that,” said Benton. “That’s gratuitous. How can they forbid us going to Taiwan?”

  “They claim it as their sovereign territory.”

  “Have we got any visits planned?”

  “We send people there all the time. We have a trade delegation going in a couple of weeks.”

  “Exactly,” said Olsen. “Sir, this is the structure of what we’ve got— you’ve done this, a visit to Japan, therefore we prohibit you sending anyone to Taiwan. You send someone to Taiwan, and…”

  “And what?” said the president.

  There was silence.

  “You think they’re trying to set up a pretext to invade?” Benton looked up at Ames. She was watching him intently.

  “That’s exactly what they’ve done. The question is why. Why now? Mr. President, something’s going on over there. What we’re seeing are the external signs. Maybe your visit’s precipitated it. For some reason, they need to start banging the nationalist drum. They need to look tough. Whatever we’re doing, it’s working. We need to sit tight and keep going as we are.”

  “Invading Taiwan might not be an option they want to exercise,” said Ball. “They might just be putting a pretext out there in case they decide to. It might be all they want to do is clamp down on some of their opposition people—make a few more arrests, which is what we’re seeing—and they’ll sit back and review things then. Could be that if they do that, they’ll feel secure enough to sit down with us and do a deal on the Carbon Plan. We should take it back into Kyoto now. That’ll give us more support, and it’ll be easier for the Chinese to join us.”

  “Easier for them to hide,” said Olsen. “Look, the whole point here is something inside the regime has changed, and it’s changed because of what we’re doing.”

  “You think there’s been a shift in control?” said Benton. “You think it’s not Wen anymore?”

  “I don’t know. Whatever it is, this is the start. We’ve got them into the open. We’re into phase two. This is where they blink, and we get on top.”

  “Jesus Christ,” muttered Ball.

  “Alan,” said Benton, “I want a security update twice daily. If there’s any danger to American citizens, I want them out.”

  “Yes, sir.”

  “I don’t want them hostage to whatever game Wen’s playing. All right. What else do we do?”

  “As I said, now’s the time to take this back into—”

  “We make a statement about this thing,” said Olsen. “That’s it. We make a dignified statement and let them keep digging their own hole.”

  “Oh, for God’s sake!” said Ball. “Let’s seize the opportunity to take this back into Kyoto.”

  “We’re not taking it back anywhere! Now’s not the time to turn chicken. A statement. That’s it.”

  “The president has a speech tonight at the state dinner with Nakamura,” said Ames.

  “I wouldn’t say anything there,” said Olsen. “You drag Nakamura in and he’s not going to thank you. We should release a statement separately.” “Jodie?”

  “I agree.”

  “Mr. President—”

  “Alan, right now, for the moment, let’s see where this goes. I’m prepared to do that. I’m going to make a statement, and then let’s see what happens.”

  “But, sir—”

  “Alan, that’s what I’m going to do. I’ll keep other options open.”

  They crafted a statement. At last, it was a chance to paint the United States as victim rather than aggressor, and getting on a high horse would blow the opportunity. The tone was understated, more bemused than outraged.

  But it was just a statement, thought Benton, after Ames had gone out to polish the wording. Statements were just statements. It was the reaction they created that mattered.

  He wondered if Larry Olsen was right. He had come too far now not to wait a little longer and find out. Maybe Wen had made a serious mistake, or at least had been forced to sacrifice a degree of international support for the sake of something he had to do internally. Or maybe not. If not, what was Wen expecting him to do? What he had just done, or something different?

  Either way, the pressure on him was about to get even greater. Every sign of deterioration in the situation led to a fresh wave of panic.

  The statement was released two hours later. Jodie Ames read it aloud to the journalists on the plane, and it was then streamed to the agencies.

  They landed at Narita. It was seven in the morning in Tokyo, six p.m. in New York. The dollar had slid eleven percent. The Dow Jones had plummeted eight percent in the last hour of trading, giving it its biggest one-day fall since 2013, when nuclear war between India and Pakistan seemed imminent.

  ~ * ~

  Friday, October 21

  Situation Room, The White House

  The Chinese government had reacted to the president’s statement by issuing a response asserting that the province of Taiwan was an inseparable part of the People’s Republic of China. They had also cut air links between the mainland and Taipei and reiterated the demand for a suspension of official U.S. visits. Internally, the crackdown had intensified. The democratic and environmental oppositions were being vilified in the press, and people were being exhorted to inform on anyone suspected of opposition activity. The CIA estimated that upward of five thousand opposition figures had now been arrested and a large number of businesses forcibly closed. A selective shutdown of exports to the U.S. was under way. />