31. United Nations, A Review of the Taliban and Fellow Travelers as a Movement: Concept Paper Updating PAG Joint Assessment of June 2006 (Kabul: United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, August 2007), pp. 5, 8.
32. Afghan Ministry of Defense, The National Military Strategy, 2005 (Kabul: Afghan Ministry of Defense, 2005), p. 3.
33. Statement of Lieutenant General Karl W. Eikenberry, Testimony Before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee, February 13, 2007, p. 5.
34. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008 (Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2008).
35. Author interview with Doug Wankel, director of the Office of Drug Control, Kabul, Afghanistan, November 23, 2005.
36. Ibid.
37. Jon Lee Anderson, “Letter from Afghanistan: The Taliban’s Opium War,” The New Yorker, July 9, 2007.
38. Interview with Doug Wankel, director of the Office of Drug Control, Kabul, Afghanistan, November 23, 2005.
39. Correspondence with former Afghan Minister of Interior Ali Jalali, September 5, 2006.
40. Coalition Provisional Authority and Interim Ministry of Interior, Talking Points: Drug-Trafficking Trends and Forecast for Iraq, Prepared for Ambassador L. Paul Bremer (Baghdad: Coalition Provisional Authority and Interim Ministry of Interior, July 17, 2003), p. 1.
41. Statement of Karen P. Tandy, Administrator, U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency, Testimony Before the House Armed Services Committee, Washington, DC, June 28, 2006.
42. Author interview with intelligence officer, 82nd Airborne Division, Bagram, Afghanistan, March 7, 2008.
43. Author interview with Doug Wankel, January 11, 2007. Statement of Karen P. Tandy, Administrator, U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency, Testimony Before the House Armed Services Committee, Washington, DC, June 28, 2006.
44. Thomas H. Johnson, “Financing Afghan Terrorism: Thugs, Drugs, and Creative Movement of Money,” in Jeanne K. Giraldo and Harold A. Trinkunas, Terrorism Financing and State Responses: A Comparative Perspective (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2007), p. 98.
45. Ahmed Rashid, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2000), p. 118.
46. Author interview with Ambassador Said Jawad, August 24, 2007.
47. “U.S. Military Links Karzai Brother to Drugs,” ABC World News Tonight, June 22, 2006. Also see, for example, Ron Moreau and Sami Yousafzai, “A Harvest of Treachery,” Newsweek, January 9, 2006, p. 32.
48. James Risen, “Reports Link Karzai’s Brother to Afghanistan Heroin Trade,” New York Times, October 4, 2008, p. A1.
49. Author interview with two U.S. intelligence operatives, March 3, 2009.
50. Anthony Loyd, “Corruption, Bribes and Trafficking: A Cancer That Is Engulfing Afghanistan,” The Times (London), November 24, 2007, p. 55. On other accusations of corruption in the Afghan government, see, for example, Philip Smucker, “Afghan Opium Crop Booms: More People Doing Illicit Trade, Corruption Cited,” Washington Times, March 16, 2007, p. Ai 7.
51. Sakayi, “Hidden Hands for Damaging the Government,” Daily Afghanistan, February 25, 2007. It was reprinted in English by the BBC. See “Afghan Daily Says Government Under Attack from Within,” BBC Monitoring South Asia, February 26, 2007.
52. Author interview with Michelle Parker, August 15, 2007.
53. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Afghanistan: Opium Survey 2005 (Kabul and Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2005), p. 29.
54. Author interview with Doug Wankel, November 23, 2005; Afghanistan: Opium Survey 2005, p. iii.
55. Afghanistan: Opium Survey 2005, pp. iii-iv.
56. World Bank, Governance Matters 2008: Worldwide Governance Indicators, 1996–2007 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2008).
57. Author interview with Deputy Minister of Justice Muhammad Qasim Hashimzai, June 26, 2004. Rama Mani, Ending Impunity and Building Justice in Afghanistan (Kabul: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit, 2003), p. 2.
58. Amrullah Saleh, Strategy of Insurgents and Terrorists in Afghanistan (Kabul, Afghanistan: National Directorate of Security, 2006), p. 15.
59. Asia Foundation, Afghanistan in 2006, pp. 14–16.
60. Stephen Weber et al., Afghan Public Opinion Amidst Rising Violence (College Park, MD: Program on International Policy Attitudes, University of Maryland, December 2006), p. 6.
61. U.S. Department of State, In Their Own Words, slides 11 and 12.
62. Presidential Office of National Security, National Threat Assessment 2004 (Kabul: Presidential Office of National Security, April 2004), p. 3.
63. Presidential Office of National Security, National Threat Assessment 2005 (Kabul: Presidential Office of National Security, April 2005), p. 5.
64. European Union and UNAMA, Discussion of Taliban and Insurgency (Kabul: European Union and UNAMA, April 30, 2007), p. 3.
65. Saleh, Strategy of Insurgents and Terrorists in Afghanistan, p.
66. Joint Paper by the Government of Afghanistan, UNAMA, CFC-A, ISAF, Canada, Netherlands, UK, and U.S. Governments, Assessment of Factors Contributing to Insecurity in Afghanistan (Kabul: Government of Afghanistan, 2006), p. 2.
67. Author interview with Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, September 14, 2007.
68. Author interview with Ambassador James Dobbins, May 7, 2008.
69. Loyd, “Corruption, Bribes and Trafficking,” p. 55.
70. Author interview with Ambassador Ronald Neumann, September 7, 2007.
71. Author interview with senior NDS officials, Kabul, Afghanistan, September 22, 2007. The purpose of the interview was to review NDS conclusions on support for the Taliban and other insurgent groups. We reviewed NDS conclusions based on detainee interviews and intelligence reports.
72. Somini Sengupta, “For Afghans, Voting May Be a Life-and-Death Decision,” New York Times, September 16, 2005, p. A10.
73. World Bank, Afghanistan: State Building, Sustaining Growth, and Reducing Poverty, 2004, p. 105.
74. European Union and UNAMA, Discussion of Taliban and Insurgency, p. 4.
Chapter Twelve
1. Author interview with Ambassador Ronald Neumann, April 16, 2008.
2. Author interview with Lieutenant General Karl Eikenberry, October 27, 2007.
3. Author interview with Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, September 14, 2007.
4. Rowan Scarborough, “NATO Shrugs Off Afghan Violence,” Washington Times, March 7, 2006, p. A6.
5. General James L. Jones, USMC (Retired) and Ambassador Thomas R. Pickering, Co-Chairs, Afghanistan Study Group Report: Revitalizing Our Efforts, Rethinking Our Strategies (Washington, DC: The Center for the Study of the Presidency, January 2008), p. 7.
6. General Tommy Franks with Malcolm McConnell, American Soldier (New York: Regan Books, 2004), p. 277.
7. World Bank, Afghanistan At a Glance (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007), p. 1.
8. International Monetary Fund, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility—Staff Report (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, July 2007), p. 26.
9. World Bank, Afghanistan: Rehabilitating the Telecom Sector (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006).
10. Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, Statement to the House Armed Services Committee, December 11, 2007.
11. Author interview with Abdul Salam Rocketi, September 4, 2006.
12. Pamela Constable, “Gates Visits Kabul, Cites Rise in Cross-Border Attacks,” Washington Post, January 17, 2007, p. A10.
13. The data come from Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. See, for example, Ed Johnson, “Gates Wants NATO to Reorganize Afghanistan Mission,” Bloomberg News, December 12, 2007.
14. Antonio Giustozzi, Koran, Kalashnikov, and Laptop: The Neo-Taliban Insurgency in Afghanistan (London: Hurst & Company, 2007), p. 102.
15. The Asia Foundation, Afghanistan in 2006: A Survey of the Afghan People (Kabul: Asia
Foundation, 2006), p. 96. Data on regions are courtesy of the Asia Foundation.
16. Memorandum from the Rendon Group to J5 CENTCOM Strategic Effects, Polling Results—Afghanistan Omnibus May 2007, June 15, 2007.
17. ABC News/BBC/ARD Poll, Afghanistan—Where Things Stand (Kabul: ABC News/BBC/ARD Poll, December 2007), p. 12.
18. White House, President Bush Participates in Joint Press Availability with President Karzai of Afghanistan (Washington, DC: White House Office of the Press Secretary, August 6, 2007).
19. Afghanistan National Security Council, National Threat Assessment 2004 (Kabul: Afghanistan National Security Council, April 2004), p. 3.
20. Afghanistan National Security Council, National Threat Assessment 2005 (Kabul: Afghanistan National Security Council, September 2005), p. 4.
21. Afghanistan National Security Council, The National Security Policy: The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (Kabul: Afghanistan National Security Council), p. 10.
22. General Michael V. Hayden, The Current Situation in Iraq and Afghanistan (Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 2006), p. 2. The document, which was unclassified, was given to the Senate Armed Services Committee in November 2006.
23. Lieutenant General Michael D. Maples, The Current Situation in Iraq and Afghanistan (Washington, DC: Defense Intelligence Agency, 2006), p. 6. The document, which was unclassified, was given to the Senate Armed Services Committee in November 2006.
24. United Nations Department of Safety and Security, Half-Year Review of the Security Situation in Afghanistan (Kabul: United Nations, August 2007), p. 1.
25. Author interview with Ambassador Ronald Neumann, September 7, 2007.
26. Author interview with Lieutenant General David Barno, September 4, 2007.
27. Author interview with U.S. intelligence operative, March 8, 2009.
28. Jim Landers, “U.S. Should Double Afghan Aid in Elections’ Wake, Envoy Says,” Dallas Morning News, October 29, 2005.
29. See, for example, White House, Request for Fiscal Year 2006 Supplemental Appropriations (Washington, DC: White House, February 16, 2006), p. 63. The State Department was given $43 million for unanticipated requirements in Afghanistan, including $11 million for the subsidy cost of 100 percent debt reduction for Afghanistan. And $32 million went for power-sector projects. This included aid for the replacement of crucial emergency generating equipment, and critical early stage components of the Northeast Transmission Project, a $500 million effort, which was funded primarily by other bilateral and multilateral donors.
30. Author interview with Ambassador Ronald Neumann, September 7, 2007.
31. L. Paul Bremer III, My Year in Iraq: The Struggle to Build a Future of Hope (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2006), p. 114.
32. Memo from Ambassador L. Paul Bremer to Secretary Rumsfeld, “Moving Faster: A Problem or Two,” July 7, 2003.
33. John Hamre, Memorandum for the Secretary of Defense and the Administrator, Coalition Provisional Authority, “Preliminary Observations Based on My Recent Visit to Baghdad,” June 2003.
34. Commander British Forces, Counterinsurgency in Helmand: Task Force Operational Design, January 2008, p. 5.
35. Andrew Feickert, U.S. and Coalition Military Operations in Afghanistan: Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, June 9, 2006), pp. 4–5.
36. Warren Chin, “British Counter-Insurgency in Afghanistan,” Defense & Security Analysis, vol. 23, no. 2, June 2007, pp. 201–25; Andrew Feickert, U.S. and Coalition Military Operations in Afghanistan: Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, December 11, 2006), p. 3.
37. Richard K. Kolb, “We Are Fighting Evil’: Canadians in Afghanistan,” VFW Magazine, March 2007, p. 26.
38. Adnan R. Khan, “I’m Here to Fight: Canadian Troops in Kandahar,” Maclean’s, April 5, 2006.
39. Author interviews with Canadian soldiers, Kandahar, Afghanistan, January 13–17, 2007.
40. United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, A Review of the Taliban and Fellow Travelers as a Movement: Concept Paper Updating PAG Joint Assessment of June 2006 (Kabul: United Nations, August 2007), p. 9.
41. Captain Edward Stewart, Op MEDUSA—A Summary (London, Ontario: The Royal Canadian Regiment, 2007). Captain Stewart was the forward public affairs officer for Operation Medusa, from the Task Force 306 Battle Group.
42. Board of Inquiry Minutes of Proceedings, Convened by LGen J. C. M. Gauthier, Commander CEFCOM, 22 September 2006, A-10A Friendly Fire Incident 4 September 2006, Panjwayi District, Afghanistan, p. 14.
43. Author interviews with Canadian soldiers, Kandahar, Afghanistan, January 13–17, 2007.
44. Captain Edward Stewart, Op MEDUSA—A Summary.
45. Board of Inquiry Minutes of Proceedings, p. 14; Captain Edward Stewart, Op MEDUSA—A Summary.
46. Author interviews with Canadian soldiers, Kandahar, Afghanistan, January 13–17, 2007.
47. Board of Inquiry Minutes of Proceedings, p. 14.
48. Alex Dobrota and Omar El Akkad, “Friendly Fire Claims Former Olympic Athlete,” Globe and Mail (Canada), September 5, 2006.
49. Board of Inquiry Minutes of Proceedings.
50. Captain Edward Stewart, Op MEDUSA—A Summary.
51. Captain Edward Stewart, Op MEDUSA—A Summary.
52. Patrick Dickson and Sandra Jontz, “Discovering What Makes a Hero,” Stars and Stripes, June 14, 2005.
53. Inspector General, United States Department of Defense, Review of Matters Related to the Death of Corporal Patrick Tillman, U.S. Army (Washington, DC: United States Department of Defense, March 2007).
54. United States House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Misleading Information from the Battlefield: The Tillman and Lynch Episodes (Washington, DC: United States House of Representatives, July 2008), pp. 5, 49. Also see Mary Tillman with Narda Zacchino, Boots on the Ground by Dusk: My Tribute to Pat Tillman (New York: Modern Times, 2008).
55. Author interviews with Canadian soldiers, Kandahar, Afghanistan, January 13–17, 2007.
56. Captain Edward Stewart, Op MEDUSA—A Summary.
57. Captain Edward Stewart, Op MEDUSA—A Summary.
58. Author interviews with Canadian soldiers, Kandahar, Afghanistan, January 13–17, 2007.
59. General James L. Jones, Allied Command Operations, slide 6.
60. Letter from Brad Adams, Executive Director of Human Rights Watch’s Asia Division, to NATO Secretary General, Subject: Summit in Latvia, October 30, 2006.
61. Author interview with Lieutenant Colonel Simon Hetherington, commanding officer of the Canadian Forces Provincial Reconstruction Team in Kandahar, Kandahar, Afghanistan, January 16, 2007.
62. Michael Smith, “British Troops in Secret Truce with the Taliban,” The Times (London), October 1, 2006.
63. United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, UNAMA Assessment of the Effects of the Musa Qala Agreement (Kabul: United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, January 2007), p. 2.
64. Author interview with senior White House official, Washington, DC, November 28, 2007. Also see, for example, Karen DeYoung, “U.S. Notes Limited Progress in Afghan War,” Washington Post, November 25, 2007, p. A1.
65. Julian E. Barnes, “U.S. Military Says Iraq Is the Priority,” Los Angeles Times, December 12, 2007.
66. Author interviews with senior U.S. Marine Corps officials, Washington, DC, December 10, 2007.
67. Thom Shanker, “Gates Decides Against Marines’ Offer to Leave Iraq for Afghanistan,” New York Times, December 6, 2007, p. A16.
Chapter Thirteen
1. PBS Frontline, “The Return of the Taliban,” Written, produced, and reported by Martin Smith. Airdate: October 3, 2006.
2. See, for example, Murray Gell-Mann, The Quark and the Jaguar (New York: Henry Holt and Company, 1994); John Holland, Hidden Order (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1995); Kevin Dooley, “A Complex Adaptive Systems Model of Organization Change,” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychol
ogy, and Life Science, vol. 1, no. 1, 1997, pp. 69–97.
3. Author interview with Commander Larry Legree, June 10, 2008.
4. Joby Warrick, “CIA Places Blame for Bhutto Assassination,” Washington Post, January 18, 2008, p. A1.
5. Author interview with U.S. intelligence officer, Bagram, Afghanistan, March 8, 2008.
6. On cooperation among insurgents, see Barnett R. Rubin, Afghanistan and the International Community: Implementing the Afghanistan Compact (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2006); “Afghan Taliban Say No Talks Held with U.S., No Differences with Hekmatyar,” Karachi Islam, February 24, 2005, pp. 1, 6; “Pajhwok News Describes Video of Afghan Beheading by ‘Masked Arabs,’ Taliban,” Pajhwok Afghan News, October 9, 2005; “Spokesman Says Taliban ‘Fully Organized,’ Daily Ausaf (Islamabad), June 23, 2005, pp. 1, 6; “UK Source in Afghanistan Says al Qa’ida Attacks Boost Fear of Taliban Resurgence,” The Guardian, June 20, 2005; “Taliban Military Chief Threatens to Kill U.S. Captives, Views Recent Attacks, Al-Qa’ida,” Interview with Al Jazeera TV, July 18, 2005.
7. David Galula, Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice (St. Petersburg, FL: Hailer Publishing, 2005), pp. 11–12, 78–79.
8. On terrorism and learning, see Brian A. Jackson, Aptitude for Destruction, Vol. 1: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Implications for Combating Terrorism (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2005); Jackson, Aptitude for Destruction, Vol. 2: Case Studies of Organizational Learning in Five Terrorist Groups (Santa Monica, CA: RAND: 2005).
9. United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, A Review of the Taliban and Fellow Travelers as a Movement: Concept Paper Updating PAG Joint Assessment of June 2006 (Kabul: United Nations, August 2007), p. 3.
10. United States Marine Corps, After Action Report on Operations in Afghanistan (Camp Lejeune, NC: United States Marine Corps, August 2004); Operation Enduring Freedom: Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (Fort Leavenworth, KS: U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, December 2003); United Nations Department of Safety and Security, Half-Year Review of the Security Situation in Afghanistan (Kabul: United Nations, August 2007).
11. Amnesty International, Amnesty International Contacts Taliban Spokesperson, Urges Release of Hostages (New York: Amnesty International, August 2, 2007).
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