by Stuart Slade
Yamamoto’s voice droned on, describing the naval groups and logistics side of the operation. Eventually, he summed up. “And so, within six months of commencing operations, the entire southern resource area will be in our hands and we will be able to resist any counterattack.” He sat down to ecstatic applause from the Navy. The silence from the Army ranks was deafening. They were mostly interested in continuing the war in China. This southern adventure was a distraction made tolerable only by the need to seize the resources they needed for the China campaign.
Time to inject a little reality into this fantasy. Takeda thought as he turned to Katsuyori, his aide and long-time comrade. “I wonder if General Tojo would find an up-to-date assessment of the forces we will face if this plan is executed of value.”
Katsuyori gave the appearance of careful consideration. “I think he would. It is fortunate we have two maps available. I suggest we use one to show the situation in June 1940 and the other today, almost a year later.”
The others in the room swallowed their annoyance at the exchange. It was well-known that the Tokubetsu Koto Kempeitai rarely talked to lesser mortals. They discussed things amongst themselves and others were, sometimes, allowed the privilege of listening. That was all.
“An excellent idea. Very well. A year ago, India had three squadrons of its own, all equipped with biplanes from the 1920s. There were eleven RAF squadrons; six with the same obsolete biplanes, two with Vildebeest torpedo bombers in Singapore and three squadrons of Blenheim bombers, one in India, one in Burma, one in Malaya.”
Takeda put three blue circles on the June 1940 map. “Less than fifty modern aircraft and no fighters at all. That has all changed. The RAF and Indian Air Forces have effectively merged and they have been reequipped. They now have ten squadrons of fighters, all equipped with Mohawk IVs. Two in Ceylon, two in Singapore, one in Malaya, one in Burma and four in northern India. The two torpedo bomber squadrons in Singapore have equipped with DB-7Cs. There are six other DB-7 light bomber squadrons; two in Singapore, the rest in Malaya, Burma and Northern India. They have two maritime reconnaissance squadrons in Ceylon; one with Hudsons, one with Catalinas. Their air force continues to expand as more pilots are trained or arrive from Britain.
“It is the same with their Navy. A year ago, three old cruisers and a half-dozen destroyers. Now, a battleship, two carriers with fighters and torpedo planes, a dozen modern cruisers and two dozen or more destroyers.” Takeda finished putting blue circles on the 1941 map and it already was starting to look crowded.
“In the Dutch East Indies, it is the same position. In 1940, nothing but a handful of old biplanes, mostly dating from the 1920s. Now, over a hundred modern monoplane fighters, including Brewster Buffalos, Hawk 75s and Curtiss-Wright Demons. Two more squadrons of DB-7C torpedo bombers and over a hundred Martin medium bombers.” More blue circles joined the Indian ones.
“We have the Australians of course; they had nothing in 1940 other than long-obsolete biplanes from the 1920s. Now, nine squadrons of fighters, including five of Tomahawks. Six squadrons of bombers with Beaufort torpedo bombers and Hudsons. Three maritime squadrons with Catalinas and Sunderlands. Two of the Tomahawk squadrons are in Singapore. There is an Australian Army division in Malaya, reinforcing two Indian and a British division.”
Takeda finished adding the circles for the Australian forces to the blue swathe that now dominated the southern half of the map. “In total, over the last year, more than a thousand modern aircraft have arrived in the area we wish to claim as our southern resources area. Most of them were ordered by the British and French but were delivered to the Commonwealth countries. The opposition is immensely stronger than it was a year ago. It has been reinforced by the purchasing power of two European nations redirected into the area the Navy plans to attack. I wonder if they have fully considered the implications of this change?”
Katsuyori pushed his lower lip out in an eloquent expression of doubt. “That would require a degree of independent thought and strategic consideration quite beyond them. One wonders also if the Army have actually been consulted about how their troops are to be used. Or, even if they are still available, after the recent debacle.”
“The forces assigned to occupy Thailand are ridiculous.” General Nakamura’s voice was hoarse and strained from the burns he had received. The searing heat of the flamethrower had damaged his throat and lungs. Speaking was a grave hardship for him. In Takeda’s eyes, that gave him the privilege of speaking while the Tokubetsu Koto Kempeitai held the floor. “They have maintained their Army at wartime levels. They have four infantry divisions and a cavalry division along the Mekong and three infantry divisions and a cavalry division in the south. They are forming an armored division as a strategic reserve in Bangkok. They also have reequipped their air force since the fighting in January. We will need at least nine divisions for the northern operation and the southern operation will need at least five.”
“It appears the Navy have not consulted the Army.” Takeda looked at Katsuyori and shook his head in disbelief. “Why they have not done so is a grave oversight on their part. I sometimes wonder if they are both serving our Emperor, as their duty demands, or whether they merely cater to their own factional interests. We must contemplate that possibility.”
“And that is before we invade Burma and Malaya.” Nakamura stopped speaking, his reserve of strength gone, but his words had slashed deep into the heart of the meeting.
“The spirit of the Japanese soldier …” Masanobu Tsuji’s fanatical voice cut across the crippled general.
“And how many battles against a modern enemy have you fought, Colonel?” Nakamura made one last final effort before his strength was exhausted. After a pause he looked disdainfully at the Colonel. “I thought not.”
“The Philippines also presents problems.” Katsuyori spoke slowly and carefully, apparently completely unaware that the interruption from Tsuji had ever happened. “The Americans have reinforced there as well.”
“Indeed they have, yet the Navy appears not to have noticed. The Americans have sent many more bombers, many more fighters. Above all, they have dispersed them all over the Islands. Once, they were concentrated at Davao and Manila. Now, they are on many airbases, some of which we have yet to find.
“McArthur may be an egotistical fool, but the Philippine Army and the American forces grow stronger every day. It is the same in Hawaii. Twice as many troops, three times as many fighters, twice as many bombers and reconnaissance aircraft. Our Embassy there reports that the Americans are flying around-the-clock reconnaissance patrols now and our passenger liners north of the islands report seeing Catalinas and B-17s patrolling the area.”
That caused a stir, even in the Navy ranks. The whole basis of the Navy plan was to attack from the north, where there was supposed to be no opposition and patrol aircraft were absent.
Katsuyori shook his head in disbelief. “If the defenses have grown so much in a year, what will they be like in a other six months? Has the Navy even considered how the situation might further change by the end of the year?”
“Who can say? We do know that Australia and India are both starting to build their own fighter aircraft. Not the best in the world, perhaps; but more opposition still. The American production lines continue to accelerate and their new aircraft are much more formidable than the old.” Takeda pinned up a picture of a new American fighter, the P-38. For some reason, the sight of the twin-engined fighter sent a chill down Yamamoto’s spine. “Their current aircraft may be no match for our A6M and Ki-43 now but in a year’s time? Or six months?”
“We have no choice!” Yamaguchi’s bellow cut across Takeda’s comments.
Katsuyori stared at him coldly, smelling the waves of used sake on his breath from across the room. Once again, his words were directed to Takeda, not Yamaguchi. “Have you ever despaired at the lack of moral character in so many of our officers?”
“We do not despair in the Tokubetsu Koto Kempeitai. We accep
t that we must work with what we have, however apparently inadequate it is. Despite its shortcomings. In this case, the shortcomings are so deep-rooted that they have almost become virtues.” To Takeda’s amusement, Yamaguchi was having great problems working out whether the remarks addressed to Katsuyori were an insult or not. “General Nakamura believes the forces assigned to the occupation of Thailand are inadequate, even before the follow-on operations are considered. He has much experience and from experience comes wisdom. The Army should heed his words.”
Count Hisaichi Terauchi shook his head. “There are insufficient troops to allocate any more to that operation. If it cannot be concluded with the troops assigned, then it should not be attempted at all. That prevents the follow-on operations aimed at Burma and Malaya. It means we will not be able to secure Singapore. We can use the troops freed up to reinforce the attacks on the Dutch East Indies, of course. But, without Malaya, Burma and Singapore, the security of the Southern Resource Area is greatly imperilled. But, the Admiral was right. We have no choice.”
“This may not be entirely true.” The speaker was one of the two civilians in the room. He actually represented the Inperiaru Zaimusho Sabisu, the Imperial Treasury Service, the empire’s tax collectors. Incorruptible and answering only to the Emperor himself, the Inperiaru Zaimusho Sabisu was a body even the Tokubetsu Koto Kempeitai respected. “There is a choice.”
“This should be interesting.” Katsuyori’s aside to Takeda was, for once, actually intended for his ears alone. “Perhaps we will tax our enemies to death.”
Takeda glanced around the room. Once again, the posturing truculence of the Spirit Warriors who dominated the armed forces disgusted him. “Foreigners are the opposition. Our enemies are here in this room and, yes, taxing them to death might well be an option worth considering. It would be less cruel than some of the others we might consider appropriate.”
Takeda had spoken for Katsuyori’s ears alone, but the man from the Inperiaru Zaimusho Sabisu had heard the remark and was nodding thoughtfully. He produced a series of papers from as briefcase and looked owlishly around the room.
“To take the raw materials we need, and secure the access routes to them, is possible, of course. But, would it not be simpler just to buy them?”
He waited politely while the jeers died down. “That was impossible up to now, of course, due to the American blockade and their financial embargoes. But nothing is permanent or unchanging. The world situation now is unprecedented and it may change quite radically without notice. Did this not already happen on June 19th last year? On June 17th, who would have known that within a few weeks, Great Britain would have become a political outcast and the Commonwealth it once led reformed without it? Great changes lead to other changes of comparable magnitude, and we have yet to hear the end of the echoes from June 19th. We failed to anticipate the echoes that have taken place. We must be ready to exploit those that remain.
“One such echo is that the Commonwealth countries have been cast adrift in the harsh world of international trade. They proudly call themselves the Commonwealth of Nations but, the truth is, without Britain, their old trading system is dead. Today, only South Africa is prosperous, for the world needs its gold. India survives just barely and it is doing the best of the other Commonwealth countries. Australia is sliding into deep economic depression and New Zealand does even worse. Outside the Commonwealth, the Netherlands East Indies is also suffering from an economic depression. In each case, the root cause is the same. With their parent countries gone, they have nobody to buy their goods.
“So we buy them. We can pay for them with yen, for they will have to accept what we offer. And, when the tides change and the Americans change their position, we can negotiate once again. All we need is patience for that change. In the meantime, we can exploit the economic problems of the resource area to get the materials we need.”
Takeda was fascinated to watch the delegates in the room mull the situation over. He could already divide them into two groups. Those who wanted a war because their minds could not conceive of another way of handling their problems, and those who could. Those who could were looking at the two maps, the sparse and empty map of 1940 and that of 1941, with its great swathe of Commonwealth forces occupying the area that had once seemed so ripe for plucking. Tojo was looking at him. Takeda he nodded slightly. It is time.
“I call for a vote. Do we accept the Navy plan to seize the Southern Resource Area and thus commit us to the war with the United States it inevitably means?” Tojo looked around the room for the first votes to be declared.
“I vote for it.” Yamamoto wasted no time in casting his vote.
“And I.” Yamaguchi followed him a split second later.
“And I.” Masanobu Tsuji’s vote was also a foregone conclusion. His eyes were so focussed on Southeast Asia and his desire for revenge, they ignored everything else.
“And I.” Nagano Osami followed his master.
“I vote against.” General Nakamura spoke with equal fervor. “This plan is a delusion.”
“I vote against.” Field Marshal Shunroku Hata, Commander of the Shirta haken gun, the China Expeditionary Army, was equally firm. The last thing he wanted was resources withdrawn from his thin-stretched army.
“The submarines vote in favor of the plan.”
“The naval air force votes in favor of the plan.”
“The General Defense Command votes against.”
“The Southern Expeditionary Army votes against.”
“The Scouting forces vote in favor.”
“The Ministry of War votes in favor.” That was a shock to Takeda. He had expected Tojo to vote against.
“The Kwantung Army votes against.”
‘‘Kido Butai votes in favor.” Well, Nagumo has finally climbed off the
fence.
“The General Staff College votes against.”
“The Army Air Force votes against.”
“Army Operations votes against.”
“Army Intelligence votes against.”
So that made nine votes in favor of the Navy plan and nine against. There were three votes left, one Army and two Navy. The Tokubetsu Koto Kempeitai and the two financial experts did not have votes here. Takeda knew that, if the power blocks held good, the Navy plan would be accepted and Japan would be doomed. He didn’t know how the Americans would do it but he did know that if the Navy had their way, the war they started would end with Japan being smashed into the dust.
“The Army Minister votes in favor.” That was also a shock for Takeda. He was beginning to despair. Can’t these people see what they are doing?
Fuchida had been staring at the map with its array of Commonwealth air units and working out what the chances of the carrier strike groups were like when they were thrown against the growing forces he could see. He had seen the prospect of formations of carrier aircraft engaging in battle after battle against an apparently neverending stream of opposition. They would win each battle. But, with each victory, the finely-honed sword upon which the Japanese Navy depended would become ever duller and the chips on the blade would weaken it more, Eventually it would break. There was another factor. Battles were by definition unpredictable things and nobody could be sure of their outcome. Those new land-based torpedo bombers could come in at dawn or dusk and drop their deadly loads. Only a few weeks earlier, a tiny handful of British Swordfish torpedo planes from the British carrier Eagle had driven back the Italian battlefleet, inflicting grievous losses in the process. That carrier and her Swordfish now operated out of Ceylon. The image of a constant battle of attrition and the ever-present danger of a lucky strike had led him to an ugly conclusion. The planned assault was doomed.
Even if it succeeded, it would have failed for the continuous battles would leave the precious carriers and their fragile air groups ruined beyond quick repair. That meant Japan would be defenseless against the counter-blow that would surely come. There was only one thing he could possibly say.
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“The Air Fleet votes against.”
“You snivelling coward!” Yamaguchi screamed the insult and struck Fuchida in the face. Blood trickled from the pilot’s lip but he stood to attention, ignoring the blow. Takeda knew that pose well; a man who had done his duty as he saw it, regardless of cost to himself. I am sorry I ever linked you with the Spirit Warriors. Today you showed the true heart of a warrior.
That made it ten votes to ten. All eyes turned to the one man who had not yet voted. The Head of Navy Operations, Minoru Genda. He was Yamamoto’s protege; a man who had benefitted from having his career steered by Yamamoto from one auspicious posting to the next. Everything he had and everything he was, he owed to the Admiral. Next to him Yamamoto was already smiling with the understanding that, despite Fuchida’s defection, the vote was won.
Genda stared at the map and the solid swathe of Commonwealth air power, then at Fuchida, who had realized its implications. Genda’s strategic insight, almost unique in this room, warred with his loyalty to his patron. His mind was also filled with images; not of air battles or victories, but with the simple figure of a man playing dice. No matter what the game was, no matter how heavily the dice were loaded, one day that man would lose. Losing was inevitable; the art of war was to ensure that when battles were lost, the consequences of the loss would not be fatal to the cause as a whole.
Here, the man playing dice was staking everything Japan had on each throw and assuming that fortune would not turn its face from him. But, it surely must one day. Then staking everything would mean no prospect of recovery. One other thing kept nagging at his mind. The centerpiece of the plan was to destroy the U.S. Fleet at Pearl Harbor. Yet, attacks on a major naval base were foolhardy. For all the gains it might have offered, the British had backed off attacking the Taranto naval base. Instead, they elected to fight the Italian Navy at sea, in the Strait of Calabria. Was the entire Navy Plan based on a flawed foundation?