The Black Cloud

by Fred Hoyle; Fred Hoyle

After fifteen hours of transmission a reply was received from the Cloud. Kingsley was sought out by Leicester.

  ‘It wants to know why we’ve allowed this to happen. It’s not pleased about it.’

  Kingsley went along to the transmitting lab, picked up a microphone, and dictated the following reply:

  ‘This attack has nothing to do with us. I should have thought my previous message would have made that clear. You are aware of the essential facts concerning the organization of human society, that it is split into a number of self-governing communities, that no one group controls the activities of the others. You cannot therefore suppose that your arrival in the solar system is viewed by other groups in the same way that we view it. It might interest you to know that in sending our warning we are gravely risking our own safety, and perhaps even our lives.’

  ‘Jesu! You don’t have to make it worse, do you, Chris? You’re not going to improve his temper with that sort of talk.’

  ‘I don’t see why not. In any case if we’re in for reprisals we might as well have the luxury of some plain speaking.’

  Marlowe and Parkinson came in.

  ‘You’ll be glad to know that Chris has just been chalking the Cloud off,’ Leicester remarked.

  ‘My God, does he have to wade in with the Ajax-treatment?’

  Parkinson gave Marlowe a long glance.

  ‘You know in a way this is remarkably like some of the ideas of the Greeks. They thought of Jupiter as travelling in a black cloud and hurling thunderbolts. Really that’s pretty much what we’ve got.’

  ‘It is a bit odd, isn’t it? As long as it doesn’t end in a Greek tragedy for us.’

  The tragedy was nearer than anyone supposed, however.

  The reply to Kingsley came in:

  ‘Message and arguments acknowledged. From what you say it is presumed that these rockets have not been launched from near your part of the Earth. Unless I hear from you to the contrary during the next few minutes I shall act on the decision I have reached. It may interest you to hear that I have decided to reverse the motions of the rockets relative to the Earth. In each case the direction of motion will be inverted, but the speed will be kept unchanged. This will be done at times when each rocket has been in flight for an exact number of days. Lastly, when this has been done, some slight perturbation will be added to the motions.’

  When the Cloud had finished, Kingsley let out a thin whistle.

  ‘My God, what a decision,’ whispered Marlowe.

  ‘Sorry. I don’t understand,’ admitted Parkinson.

  ‘Well, the reversing of the directions of motion means that the rockets will go back along their paths – all this relative to the Earth, you noticed.’

  ‘You mean they’ll hit the Earth!’

  ‘Of course, but that isn’t the end of it. If they’re turned round after an exact number of days, they’ll take an exact number of days to re-traverse their paths, so when they hit the Earth they’ll hit the exact points they started out from.’

  ‘Why is that precisely?’

  ‘Because after an exact number of days the Earth will be at the same stage of its rotation.’

  ‘And what was the point of the “relative to the Earth” business?’

  ‘That makes sure that the Earth’s motion around the Sun is allowed for,’ said Leicester.

  ‘And the Sun’s motion around the Galaxy,’ added Marlowe.

  ‘So it means that those who sent the rockets will get ’em back again. Ye gods, it’s the judgement of Solomon.’

  Kingsley had listened to the conversation. Now he said:

  ‘There’s one final little tit-bit for you, Parkinson: that point about slight perturbations being added, which means that we don’t know exactly where they’ll land. We only know approximately within a few hundred miles, or perhaps within a thousand miles. I’m sorry about this, Geoff.’

  Marlowe looked older than Kingsley ever remembered him.

  ‘It might have been worse; we can console ourselves with that, I suppose. Thank God America is a big country.’

  ‘Well, it’s the end of our idea of secrecy,’ remarked Kingsley. ‘I’ve never believed in secrecy and now I’ve got it thrown back in my face. That’s another judgement of Solomon.’

  ‘What d’you mean about it being the end of secrecy?’

  ‘Well, Harry, we must warn Washington. If a hundred hydrogen bombs are going to fall on the U.S. in the next couple of days, at least they’ll be able to disperse the people in the big cities.’

  ‘But if we do that we’ll have the whole world about our ears!’

  ‘I know that. Even so, we must take the risk. What do you think, Parkinson?’

  ‘I think you’re right, Kingsley. We must warn them. But don’t make any mistake, our position will be desperate in the extreme. We’ll have to work that bluff or else …’

  ‘It’s no good worrying about the mess until we get into it. The first thing to do is to get through to Washington. I suppose we can depend on them to pass the information to the Russians.’

  Kingsley switched on the ten-centimetre transmitter. Marlowe came resolutely across to him.

  ‘This isn’t going to be easy, Chris. If you don’t mind I’d rather do it. And I’d rather do it by myself. It may get a bit undignified.’

  ‘It’ll probably be tough, Geoff, but if you feel you want to, then go ahead. We’ll leave you to it, but remember we won’t be far off if you need any help.’

  Kingsley, Parkinson, and Leicester left Marlowe alone to pass the message, a message containing an admission of the highest treason, as any terrestrial court would interpret treason.

  Marlowe was white and shaken when three-quarters of an hour later he rejoined the others.

  ‘They certainly weren’t pleased about it,’ was all he would say.

  The American and Russian Governments were even less pleased when two days later a hydrogen bomb wiped out the town of El Paso, and others landed, one in south-east Chicago, and another on the outskirts of Kiev. Although hurried attempts had been made in the U.S. to disperse all congested populations, dispersal was of necessity incomplete, and more than a quarter of a million people lost their lives. The Russian Government did not make any attempt to warn its people, with the consequence that casualties in the one Russian city exceeded the combined total in the two American cities.

  Lives lost through an ‘act of God’ are regretted, perhaps deeply regretted, but they do not arouse our wildest passions. It is otherwise with lives that are forfeited through deliberate human agency. The word ‘deliberate’ is important here. One deliberate murder can produce a sharper reaction than ten thousand deaths on the roads. It will therefore be understood why the half million fatalities caused by the hydrogen rockets impressed themselves more deeply on world Governments than the far vaster disasters that had occurred in the period of great heat, and in the following period of great cold. These latter had been thought of as ‘acts of God’. But in the eyes particularly of the United States Government the hydrogen deaths were murder, murder on a gigantic scale, perpetrated by a small group of desperate men, who to gratify insatiable ambitions had allied themselves with the thing in the sky, men who were guilty of treason against the entire human species. From then onwards the principals at Nortonstowe were marked men.

  News of Departure

  Paradoxically, although the episode of the hydrogen rockets had created a host of bitter and implacable enemies, in the short term the position of Kingsley and his friends was greatly strengthened thereby. The reversing of the rockets had given terrible proof of the power of the Cloud. No one outside Nortonstowe now doubted that the Cloud would wreak terrible destruction if called upon to do so by the group at Nortonstowe. It was pointed out in Washington that even if there had been some doubt originally about the Cloud’s willingness to take Kingsley’s part, there could surely be none now, not if the Cloud had any conception of a quid pro quo. The possibility of wiping out Nortonstowe by the use of an intercont
inental rocket was considered. Although the likelihood of strong objection by the British Government was discounted, largely because the British Government’s own position in the whole business was thought highly suspect, the scheme was soon abandoned. It was considered that the accuracy of delivery of such a rocket was inadequate for the purpose; an abortive bombardment would, it was thought, lead to swift and dreadful retaliation.

  Perhaps equally paradoxically, the undoubted strengthening of their bluff did not improve the spirits of the people at Nortonstowe or at least of those who were aware of the facts of the matter. Among these Weichart was now included. He had recovered from a severe attack of influenza that had prostrated him during the critical days. Soon his inquiring mind unearthed the main facts of the case, however. One day he got into an argument with Alexandrov that the others found amusing. This was a rare occurrence. The early comparatively carefree days had gone now. They were never to return.

  ‘It looks to me as if those perturbations of the rockets must have been deliberately engineered,’ began Weichart.

  ‘Why do you say that, Dave?’ asked Marlowe.

  ‘Well, the probability of three cities being hit by a hundred odd rockets moving at random is obviously very small. Therefore I conclude that the rockets were not perturbed at random. I think they must have been deliberately guided to give direct hits.’

  ‘There’s something of an objection to that,’ argued McNeil. ‘If the rockets were deliberately guided, how is it that only three of ’em found their targets?’

  ‘Maybe only three were guided, or maybe the guiding wasn’t all that good. I wouldn’t know.’

  There was a derisive laugh from Alexandrov.

  ‘Bloody argument,’ he asserted.

  ‘What d’you mean “bloody argument”?’

  ‘Invent bloody argument, like this. Golfer hits ball. Ball lands on tuft of grass – so. Probability ball landed on tuft very small, very very small. Million others tufts for ball to land on. Probability very small, very very very small. So golfer did not hit ball, ball deliberately guided on tuft. Is bloody argument. Yes? Like Weichart’s argument.’

  This was the longest speech that any of them had heard from Alexandrov.

  Weichart was not to be budged. When the laugh had subsided he returned to his point.

  ‘It seems clear enough to me. If the things were guided they’d be far more likely to hit their targets than if they moved at random. And since they did hit their targets it seems equally clear that they were more probably guided than that they were not.’

  Alexandrov waved in a rhetorical gesture.

  ‘Is bloody, yes?’

  ‘What Alexis means I think,’ explained Kingsley, ‘is that we are not justified in supposing that there were any particular targets. The fallacy in the argument about the golfer lies in choosing a particular tuft of grass as a target, when obviously the golfer didn’t think of it in those terms before he made his shot.’

  The Russian nodded.

  ‘Must say what dam’ target is before shoot, not after shoot. Put shirt on before, not after event.’

  ‘Because only prediction is important in science?’

  ‘Dam’ right. Weichart predict rockets guided. All right, ask Cloud. Only way decide. Cannot be decided by argument.’

  This brought their attention to a depressing circumstance. Since the affair of the rockets, all communications from the Cloud had ceased. And nobody had felt sufficiently self-confident to attempt to call it.

  ‘It doesn’t look to me as if the Cloud would welcome such a question. It looks as if it’s withdrawn in a huff,’ remarked Marlowe.

  But Marlowe was wrong, as they learned two or three days later. A surprising message was received saying that the Cloud would start moving away from the Sun in about ten days’ time.

  ‘It’s incredible,’ said Leicester to Parkinson and Kingsley. ‘Previously the Cloud seems to have been quite certain that it was staying for at least fifty years and perhaps for more than a hundred.’ Parkinson was worried.

  ‘I must say it’s a grim prospect for us now. Once the Cloud has quit we’re finished. There isn’t a court of law in the world that would support us. How long can we expect to maintain communication with the Cloud?’

  ‘Oh, so far as the strengths of transmitters are concerned, we could keep in touch for twenty years or more, even if the Cloud accelerates to a pretty high speed. But according to the Cloud’s last message we shan’t be able to maintain contact at all while it’s accelerating. It seems as if electrical conditions will be pretty chaotic in its outer parts. There’ll be far too much electrical “noise” for communication to be possible. So we can’t expect to get any messages across until the accelerating process stops, and that may take several years.’

  ‘Heavens, Leicester, you mean that we’ve got ten days more, and then we can do nothing for a number of years?’

  ‘That’s right.’

  Parkinson groaned.

  ‘Then we’re finished. What can we do?’

  Kingsley spoke for the first time.

  ‘Nothing much probably. But at least we can find out why the Cloud has decided to push off. It seems to have changed its mind pretty drastically and there must be some strong reason for that. It ought to be worth trying to find out what it is. Let’s see what it’s got to say.’

  ‘Maybe we won’t get any reply at all,’ said Leicester gloomily.

  But they did get a reply:

  ‘The answer to your question is difficult for me to explain since it seems to involve a realm of experience about which neither I nor you know anything. On previous occasions we have not discussed the nature of human religious beliefs. I found these highly illogical, and as I gathered that you did too, there seemed no point in raising the subject. By and large, conventional religion, as many humans accept it, is illogical in its attempt to conceive of entities lying outside the Universe. Since the Universe comprises everything, it is evident that nothing can lie outside it. The idea of a “god” creating the Universe is a mechanistic absurdity clearly derived from the making of machines by men. I take it that we are in agreement about all this.

  ‘Yet many mysterious questions remain. Probably you have wondered whether a larger-scale intelligence than your own exists. Now you know that it does. In a like fashion I ponder on the existence of a larger-scale intelligence than myself. There is none within the Galaxy, and none within other galaxies so far as I am yet aware. Yet there is strong evidence, I feel, that such an intelligence does play an overwhelming part in our existence. Otherwise how is it decided how matter shall behave? How are your laws of physics determined? Why those laws and no others?

  ‘These problems are of outstanding difficulty, so difficult that I have not been able to solve them. What is clear however is that such an intelligence, if it exists, cannot be spatially or temporally limited in any way.

  ‘Although I say these problems are of extreme difficulty there is evidence that they can be solved. Some two thousand million years ago one of us claimed to have reached a solution.

  ‘A transmission was sent out making this claim, but before the solution itself was broadcast the transmission came to an abrupt end. Attempts were made to re-establish contact with the individual concerned, but the attempts were not successful. Nor could any physical trace of the individual be found.

  ‘The same pattern of events occurred again about four hundred million years ago. I remember it well, for it happened soon after my own birth. I remember receiving a triumphant message to say that a solution to the deep problems had been found. I waited with “bated breath”, as you would say, for the solutions, but once again none came. Nor again was any trace found of the individual concerned.

  ‘This same sequence of events has just been repeated for a third time. It happens that the one who claimed the great discovery was situated only a little more than two light years from here. I am his nearest neighbour and it is therefore necessary for me to proceed to the scene
without delay. This is the reason for my departure.’

  Kingsley picked up a microphone.

  ‘What can you hope to discover when you reach the scene of whatever it is that has happened? We take it that you are possessed of an ample reserve of food?’

  The reply came:

  ‘Thank you for your concern. I do possess a reserve of food chemicals. It is not ample, but it should be sufficient, provided I travel at maximum speed. I have considered the possibility of delaying my departure for a number of years, but I do not think this justified in the circumstances. As regards what I hope to find, I hope to be able to settle an old controversy. It has been argued, not I think very plausibly, that these singular occurrences arise from an abnormal neurological condition followed by suicide. It is not unknown for a suicide to take the form of a vast nuclear explosion causing an entire disintegration of the individual. If this should have happened, then the failures to discover material traces of the individuals in these strange cases could be explained.

  ‘In the present instance it ought to be possible for me to put this theory to a decisive test, for the incident, whatever it may be, has occurred so near by that I can reach the scene in only two or three hundred years. This is so short a time that the debris from the explosion, if there has been an explosion, should not have entirely dispersed by then.’

  At the end of this message Kingsley looked round the lab.

  ‘Now, chaps, this is probably one of our last chances to ask questions. Suppose we make a list of them. Any suggestions?’

  ‘Well, what can have happened to these johnnies, if they haven’t committed suicide? Ask it if it’s got any ideas on that,’ said Leicester.

  ‘And we’d also like to know whether it’s going to leave the solar system in such a way as not to harm the Earth,’ remarked Parkinson.

  Marlowe nodded.

  ‘That’s right. There seem to be three possible troubles:

  1. That we get a blast from one of those gas bullets when the Cloud starts to accelerate.

  2. That we get mixed up with the Cloud and get our atmosphere ripped off.