by Adam Frank
51 Pegasi b, 143–44
in Kepler mission, 144–47
knowledge about planetary system architecture from, 147–48
precision-related problems with, 137–40
and probability of exo-civilization existence, 151–64
by Thomas See, 133–37
of super-planets, 148–50
with transit method, 140–43
exoplanets
beliefs about existence of, 33–34
climate mechanics of, 89
modeling biospheres on, 185
“Explanation for the Absence of Extraterrestrials on Earth, An” (Hart), 24
extinction events, 115
extraterrestrial intelligent species, 23; See also exo-civilizations
fbt, See bio-technical probability
fc (fraction of planets with technological civilizations), 49
feedback
on climate, 73–74
in Daisyworld model, 129
in Gaia theory, 125–29
Fellowship of Isis, 127
Fermi, Enrico, 21, 23, 25–28, 57, 166
Fermi’s Paradox, 21–28, 170
fi (fraction of planets where intelligence evolves), 49
51 Pegasi b, 143–44, 147
55 Cancri e, 149
fl (fraction of planets where life forms), 48, 163–64
Flammarion, Camille, 32, 34, 158
Flammarion, Claude, 64, 64–65, 79
fossil fuels, 5, 54, 186, 187
fp (fraction of stars with planets), 47, 150
fraction of planets where intelligence evolves (fi), 49
fraction of planets where life forms (fl), 48, 163–64
fraction of planets with technological civilizations (fc), 49
fraction of stars with planets (fp), 47, 150
Frank, Adam, 156
fusion, nuclear, 34–35
Gaia theory, 122–29, 220–22
galaxy(-ies)
exo-civilizations colonization of, 24
number of detectable technologically advanced civilizations in, See Drake equation
size of, 45–46
geochemistry, 120
geothermal energy, 189
glaciation, 112
GOE (Great Oxidation Event), 113–18, 218
Goering, Kent, 103
Goldilocks Zone, 47–48, 150, 151, 155
Golding, William, 124–25
Great Filter, 25–28
Great Oxidation Event (GOE), 113–18, 218
Great Silence, 25
Greeks, ancient, 28–29, 135
Green Bank conference, 43–54, 207
greenhouse effect, 190
runaway, 72–75
on Venus, 67–72, 184, 198
Greenland, 9, 56, 101, 113, 182; See also Camp Century
Gregersen, Soren, 100–101, 103, 104
Grinspoon, David, 220
Guaymas Basin, 114–15
Gulf Stream, 27
Haberle, Robert, 84, 86, 88, 224
habitability
and climate change for Mars, 89–91
zones of, See Goldilocks Zone
Hadean eon, 109–10
Hadley, George, 87
Hadley cells, 88
hard steps, of evolution, 162–63
Hart, Michael, 24, 28
Hawking, Stephen, 118
heat engines, 214–15
Hiroshima, bombing of, 34
Holocene epoch, 12, 16, 91, 105–6, 109
Homo sapiens, age of, 24
hot Earths, 148
hot Jupiters, 147, 149
hot Neptunes, 148
“hot” worlds, 13, 147–49
Hoyle, Frank, 46
Huang, Su-Shu, 43, 47–48
Hubel, David, 207
human civilization
in Anthropocene era, 121
in astrobiological perspective on Anthropocene era, 15–17
as “cosmic teenagers,” 3–8, 224
on Easter Island, 181–84
effects of Anthropocene era for Earth vs, 222–25
influence of, on Earth, 4–8
on Kardashev scale, 211
in storytelling about climate change, 9–10
hydro energy sources, 189
hydrogen bomb, 22, 34–35
ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles), 35, 56
ice ages, 104–5
ice core drilling, at Camp Century, 104–7
industrial revolution, 5–6, 55
infrared radiation, 69
intelligence (intelligent life); See also search for extra-terrestrial intelligence (SETI)
evolution of, 160–61, 171–73
fraction of planets with, 49
intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), 35, 56
J1407B (exoplanet), 149
James, Jack, 62, 75, 104, 174, 223
and James Lovelock, 122
in Mariner 1 mission, 61–63
in Mariner 2 mission, 71, 72
Jeans, James, 33
Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), 71, 72, 77, 122–24
jet streams, Martian, 88
Johnson, Lyndon, 54–58
JPL, See Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Jupiter, 95
Jurassic era, 112
Kardashev, Nikolai Semenovich, 208–9, 211–12, 223
Kardashev scale, 208–14
Keeling, Charles, 54
Kepler 42 system, 148
Kepler mission, 144–47, 150–51, 154, 155
Kleidon, Axel, 193–94, 198, 217
Konopinski, Emil Jan, 22, 23
L, See average lifetime of technological civilization
Langway, Chester, 105
Late Heavy Bombardment period, 109–10
Leovy, Conway, 84
life
attempts to detect, on Mars, 122–23
basics of, for exo-civilization modeling, 171, 172
beliefs about, on Mars, 78–84
coevolution of planet and, 130
in Earth’s history, 110–12
effect of Great Oxidation Event on, 117
evolution of Earth and, 10–11
fraction of planets where life forms, 48, 163–64
on other planets, 7–8; See also exo-civilizations
Life magazine, 108
lifetime of technological civilization, See average lifetime of technological civilization (L)
light, visible, 36, 41, 69
Lilly, John C., 44
liquids, energy transformations with, 216
lithosphere, 121
Livio, Mario, 247n.37
Los Alamos National Laboratory, 21
Love Canal disaster, 128
Lovelock, James, 122–29, 126, 174, 213, 220, 224
Lowell, James, 107
Lowell, Percival, 32, 34, 79–80, 134–35
Man’s Place in the Universe (Wallace), 33
mantle, 110
Marcy, Geoff, 143–44
Margulis, Lynn, 126, 174, 213, 224
Gaia theory of, 125–29, 220
and Carl Sagan, 75–76
on toughness of Earth, 9
Mariner 1 probe, 61–63
Mariner 2 probe, 63, 71–76
Mariner 4 probe, 79–81
Mariner 9 probe, 81–83, 82, 94
Mars, 76–95
in astrobiology of Anthropocene, 13
atmosphere on, 216
attempts to detect life on, 122–23
beliefs about life on, 32, 34, 78–84
climate change model for, 84–86
climate of, 11, 86–89
energy transformations on, 217, 218
formation of, 109
habitability and climate changes for, 89–91
nuclear winter modeling with, 92–95, 184
Opportunity and Spirit rovers on, 76–78
space probes to, 63
Mars Exploration Rover program, 76–79
Mars Global Climate Model, 84–86, 89–90, 94
<
br /> mathematical modeling, in theoretical biology, 177–80
Max Planck Institute, 191
Maya civilization, 182
Mayor, Michel, 143, 144, 224
Mayr, Ernst, 159–62
Mercury, 109, 215, 217
Meridiani Planum, 76
Milky Way, 24, 236n.50
Miller, Harold, 48
Minsky, Marvin, 207
Moon, probes to, 61, 63–64
Morrison, Philip, 41–43
Moulton, Forest Ray, 135, 136
Museum of Science and Industry (Chicago, Illinois), 37
myths, 8–10
N* (birth rate of stars), 46, 150
Nagasaki, bombing of, 34
National Academy of Sciences, 43
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), 57, 61, 62, 71, 81, 141, 142, 145; See also Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)
National Radio Astronomical Observatory, 39–42, 40
Naval Observatory (Mare Island, California), 136–37
Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), 65–66, 70, 72
negative feedback cycle, 74
Neptune, 30, 148
net productivity, of planet, 218
New Ageism, 127–28
Newton, Isaac, 30, 177
New Yorker, The 22, 22
New York Times, 81, 92
Nirgal Vallis, 82
Noachian period, 91, 218
noosphere, 221
Norse colony, on Greenland, 182
np, See number of planets in Goldilocks Zone
NRL, See Naval Research Laboratory
nuclear energy, 190
nuclear freeze movement, 92–93
nuclear fusion, 34–35
nuclear war, 26, 27, 92–93
nuclear weapons, 56
nuclear winter, 92–95, 184
“Nuclear Winter” (TTAPS study), 93–94
number of planets in Goldilocks Zone (np), 48, 150, 151
Of the Plurality of Worlds (Whewell), 32–33
Oliver, Barney, 43
Olympus Mons, 83
On the Revolution of Heavenly Spheres (Copernicus), 29
Opportunity rover, 76–78, 90
orbital motion, exoplanet detection based on, 138, 142
organelles, 125
oxygen; See also Great Oxidation Event
in Earth’s atmosphere, 99–100
and Gaia theory, 126–27
Oxygen (Canfield), 114
ozone layer, 117
Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, 113
Pangaea, 113
Parade magazine, 93
Pearman, J. Peter, 43, 44
pessimism line
and average lifetime of civilizations, 170
and bio-technical probability, 186
defined, 155–57
and history of exo-civilizations, 185–86
limitations of, 157–59
in understanding of climate change, 164–66
Phanerozoic eon, 112–13
photosynthesis, 111, 115–16
phototrophs, anoxygenic, 116, 117
planetary science, 66
Planetary Society, 160
planetary systems, architecture of, 147–48
planetesimals, 109
planet(s); See also exoplanet discovery
atmosphere and surface temperature of, 68–70
coevolution of, 14–15, 130
energy transformation-based classification of, 214–22
as engines of innovation, 221–22
environments for sustainable civilizations on, 205–6
fraction of, where life forms, 48, 163–64
fraction of, with intelligent life, 49
fraction of, with technological civilization, 49
fraction of stars with, 47, 150
implications of energy consumption for, 212–13
laws of, 75
life on other, 7–8; See also exo-civilizations
number of, in Goldilocks Zone, 47–48, 150, 151
number of energy sources on, 188–90
similarities of Earth to other, 7
universality of forces/processes on, 70–71
Pleistocene epoch, 106, 109
“Plurality of worlds” question, 28–34
Pollack, James, 84, 93–94, 184
populations, law of, 177–78
positive feedback loop, 73–74
Postgate, John, 128
power, 211
precision, exoplanet discovery and, 137–40
predator-prey model, 174–80, 183, 185
Project Ozma, 40–43
prokaryotes, 111
Proterozoic eon, 111–12
Queloz, Didier, 143, 144
R-7 missiles, 35
radio astronomy, 36–37, 39–42, 65
range safety officer, 63
Reagan, Ronald, 92, 93
reflex motion, exoplanet detection based on, 139, 142–44
resources, overharvesting of, 183–84
Revelle, Roger, 54
ribonucleic acid (RNA), 164
Riftia tubeworms, 114
RNA (ribonucleic acid), 164
Robinson, Kim Stanley, 10
rockets, 35–36, 71
Rodinia, 111
Romans, ancient, 49
Ross, David S., 183–84
Rossby waves, 88
runaway greenhouse effect, 72–75
Ruse, Michael, 128
Russia
atomic weapons of, 34–35
Martian probes, 81
in space race, 35–36, 61
Venusian probes, 72
Sagan, Carl, 104, 118, 166, 174, 224
at Byurakan meeting, 206–8, 207
and Gaia theory, 124, 125
at Green Bank conference, 44
on human civilization as “cosmic teenagers,” 6
Kardashev value for Earth from, 211
and Lynn Margulis, 75–76
in Mariner 4 mission, 79, 80
as “Nuclear Winter” author, 93–94
and Jim Pollack, 84
and SETI, 140, 160
Venusian greenhouse effect studies of, 66–68, 70–72, 184
in Viking mission, 83
San Jose State University, 84
satellites, 35–37, 57
Saturn, 95
Schiaparelli, Giovanni, 79
Schneiderman, Dan, 62
science
of climate change, 9
contradictory data in, 136
development of, in human civilization, 5
exo-civilization modeling using existing, 171–74
importance of well-posed questions in, 27–28
in search for exo-civilizations, 42, 52–53
transformative influence of new data in, 104
search for extra-terrestrial intelligence (SETI), 53, 141–43, 152, 160, 208; See also Byurakan Observatory meeting
“Searching for Interstellar Signals” (Cocconi & Morrison), 41–42
Second Law of Thermodynamics, 187–88
See, Thomas, 133–38, 134, 142
“Self-regulating Earth System Theory,” 124
SETI, See search for extra-terrestrial intelligence
SETI Institute, 141
70 Ophiuchi system, 135
Siegel, Ethan, 157
Silent Spring (Carson), 55–56
Snow, C.P., 21
sociology, 50, 171, 173–74
“soft landing” trajectory, 196, 197
sol (Martian day), 83
solar cells, 220
solar energy, 190
solar system(s)
architectures of other, 144, 147–48
exploration of, 95
Soviet Union, 92, 93, 208
Spirit rover, 77, 78
“spots,” on stars, 140
spreading zones, 114
Sputnik satellite, 35–36
Squyers, Steven, 76–78, 90, 223–24
stars
birth r
ate of, 46, 50
fraction of, with planets, 47, 150
planets orbiting other, 135, 136
Star Wars (film), 212
steady state, 126, 127
storytelling
about climate change, 8–10, 55
about human civilization in context of planet, 57–58
Struve, Otto, 38, 42, 43, 47, 54
Suess, Eduard, 120
Sullivan, Woody, 152–57, 159, 164–65
Sun, 109, 137, 209
super-Earths, 13, 148–49
super-planets, 148–50
super-Saturn, 149
surface temperature
atmosphere and, 68–69
ice core study of Earth’s, 105–7, 106
of Mars, 86, 89
during Phanerozoic eon, 113
of Venus, 65–68
sustainability, 56, 91, 205–6
sustainable civilizations, 205–25
and anthropogenic effects for Earth vs. civilization, 222–25
in astrobiological perspective on Anthropocene, 12, 16
and average lifetime of civilizations, 169–70
Byurakan meeting on interplanetary civilizations, 206–8
in exo-civilization modeling, 196, 196, 198, 202
and Kardashev scale of civilization progress, 208–14
and planetary classifications based on energy transformations, 214–22
planetary environments for, 205–6
Tarter, Jill, 141–43, 142, 223
Tau Ceti, 41
Taylor, M. Scott, 182–84
technological civilization
average lifetime of, See average lifetime of technological civilization (L)
fraction of planets with, 49
technology
atomic age advances in, 34–37
of Class 5 planets, 221
and energy consumption, 187
in exo-civilization modeling, 188–89
for exoplanet discovery, 141
and Kardashev scale, 211, 212
Teilhard de Chardin, Pierre, 250n.21
teleology, 128–29
Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS), 57
Teller, Edward, 21–22, 23
temperature
equilibrium, 68, 126
at surface of planet, See surface temperature
Terres Ciel, Les (Flammarion), 64
theoretical archaeology of exo-civilization, 184–202
averages in, 186
energy sources in, 186–90
environmental impact of energy consumption in, 190–91
histories of exo-civilizations in, 185–86
studying civilization and environmental interactions with, 193–98
uses of, on Earth, 198–202
theoretical biology, 174–80
theory, defined, 179
thermodynamics, 187–88, 214–15
thick biospheres, 218, 219
thin biospheres, 217–19
Thomas Aquinas, 29
Three Mile Island meltdown, 128
Thule Air Base, 101, 103
tides, as energy source, 189
TIROS (Television Infrared Observation Satellite), 57
Titan, 11, 232n.11
Toon, Owen, 93–94
Tovmassian, Hrant, 207