by David Weber
"I think," the Prime Minister continued, "that we're all in agreement that our position today is weaker than it was a few months ago." He shrugged. "That sort of thing happens in politics, and the same trends that are working against us right now may well turn around and work in our favor once the current furor's had an opportunity to quiet down. After all, the Opposition has been crying wolf for so long that a substantial portion of the public is tired of hearing it. At the moment, Alexander and his crowd may have managed to engender a certain degree of concern, possibly even panic. But if we can keep a lid on the situation, that concern will begin to fade into a 'business as usual' attitude. That's also the nature of politics.
"The point to which we ought to be turning our attention is just how we go about keeping that lid in place. And to be completely frank, Edward, I think the public is more exercised over the potential increases in the Havenites' naval power than over the exact language of diplomatic notes."
"I know it," Janacek conceded.
"And how do you suggest we go about addressing that concern?"
"Admiral Jurgensen and I have been focusing closely on that very question, I assure you," the First Lord replied. "As I told you when the existence of the new Havenite ships of the wall first came out, what really matters more than the ships themselves is the technology and sophistication of the weapons and defensive systems they mount. With that in mind, Admiral Jurgensen has ordered an exhaustive analysis of all the information in our possession. That includes direct reports from our own naval attaches, reports from agent networks in the Republic, technical intelligence, and even Havenite news accounts. The consensus of his analysts is that Theisman's 'new navy' is probably a lot less impressive than he wants us to believe."
"Really?" High Ridge leaned back and raised one eyebrow.
"Really. As I say, the key consideration is the capabilities of the hardware that goes inside the ships. Now, admittedly, there's no way short of actually physically examining those vessels to be positive about what those capabilities are, but there are certain significant indicators. Probably the strongest single one of those is the fact that they haven't shown anyone a single CLAC. It's extremely unlikely—indeed, according to BuWeaps it's virtually impossible—that the Havenite tech base is capable of matching the range performance of Ghost Rider, much less the fire control and electronic warfare capabilities of our new systems. Don't forget, we've had plenty of experience with examining captured Havenite equipment, so we know exactly what they had in their first line units at the time of the cease-fire. Projecting from that basis, and bearing in mind that Havenite R&D has never been able to match our own, their SD(P)s are almost certainly shorter ranged and much easier to kill than our own are. Substantially more dangerous than any of the classes they had in service prior to the cease-fire, certainly, but not in a class with our own SD(P)s.
"The fact that they haven't put any CLACs into service is another indicator. We certainly showed them what the new LACs could accomplish, so, logically, they must have been working all out in an effort to duplicate those capabilities. Obviously, they've so far failed to do so. If they'd succeeded, Theisman would have announced that, as well. But many of the technologies required to produce Ghost Rider also have applications in the production of the new LACs. So if they don't have the one, it seems reasonable to assume they don't have the other."
He shrugged.
"I'm not certain how best to go about making the point to the man in the street, but it's becoming increasingly apparent to those of us at Admiralty House that to a large extent, this 'new navy' of theirs is a paper hexapuma."
"You're confident of that?" Descroix asked, and her voice was no longer acrimonious. Instead, she regarded Janacek narrowly, her eyes alight with interest.
"Obviously I can't make any promises, Elaine. As I said, without the opportunity to actually examine the physical hardware involved, all we can do is draw inferences and ask what we believe are significant questions. With that proviso, though, yes. I'm confident that Secretary Theisman has substantially overstated—or, rather, drawn certain so-called naval experts of our own into overstating—the actual combat power of the Republican Navy."
"I see." Descroix propped an elbow on the left arm of her chair and rested her chin on an upraised left hand. She sat like that for several seconds, thinking hard, then shrugged.
"I see," she repeated. "And I also see what you mean about the difficulty of getting that sophisticated analysis across to the average voter. Especially when someone like White Haven is busy beating the panic drum at the same time."
"Exactly," Janacek said sourly. "The public still thinks that sanctimonious son-of-a-bitch walks on water. No one's interested in listening to mere logic or something as unimportant as evidence when he shouts that the end is near every time he opens his overrated mouth!"
Sir Edward Janacek might not be the most disinterested observer where Hamish Alexander was concerned, High Ridge reflected. But that didn't mean he hadn't put his finger on exactly what White Haven had been doing to them ever since Theisman's announcement became public knowledge in the Star Kingdom.
"I'm afraid you're right," Descroix said, and this time her voice was almost completely back to normal and her expression was thoughtful, no longer angry. "But if we're not going to be able to get that across, anyway, perhaps we shouldn't waste the effort trying to."
"What do you mean?" High Ridge asked her.
"I mean we should certainly go on trying to calm public opinion by emphasizing the naval precautions we've taken," she replied. "By all means, let's keep reminding them of the ships we've authorized the yards to resume construction on. And while I'm not sure it would be a good idea to openly denigrate the Havenites' technological capabilities—that might sound too self-serving—I think it would be entirely appropriate for us to emphasize our own capabilities. Let's remind the voters that we've held the technological edge from the beginning. If we do that with sufficient confidence, at least some of them are going to draw the proper inference.
"But even more importantly, I think the way we conduct ourselves is going to be at least as important as anything we say. If we seem to be acting as if we're afraid, then any effort on our part to reassure the public is going to be futile. But if we make it obvious that we aren't afraid—that we remain confident of our ability to handle the Havenites diplomatically, or even militarily, if it comes down to it—then that message is going to soak into the public awareness, as well."
"So what exactly are you proposing?" High Ridge asked.
"I'm proposing that we make it clear, both here at home and in Nouveau Paris, that we don't intend to be bullied," Descroix said flatly. "If Pritchart wants to get confrontational, then we need to push back just as hard as she pushes us. From what Edward's just said, it sounds very much to me as if she's basically trying to run a bluff."
"I haven't said that they haven't made some substantial improvements in their war fighting ability, Elaine," Janacek cautioned.
"No. But you have said you're confident that whatever improvements they've made, we still have the edge."
She made the statement an almost-question, and he nodded.
"Very well, then. If you can be confident of that without actually examining their hardware, then surely they have to be aware of it as well. After all, they know exactly what they have and also exactly what Eighth Fleet did to them before the cease-fire. That's what I meant when I said I think Pritchart is essentially bluffing. She certainly isn't going to be stupid enough to want to go back to war with us when she can't be confident of achieving a military victory. So we call her bluff.
"I'm not proposing that we issue any ultimatums," she went on quickly, reassuring the incipient alarm she saw on one or two faces. "I'm simply proposing that we stand firm. We won't demand any fresh concessions on their part; we'll simply refuse to be panicked into conceding the concessions they've demanded from us. Once the public realizes we feel sufficiently confident to hold our positio
n and recognizes the patience with which we're prepared to wait out this diplomatic tantrum Pritchart is throwing, the sort of borderline panic Alexander and White Haven are working so hard to generate will die a natural death."
She raised her right hand, palm uppermost, and made a throwing-away gesture.
"You may be right," High Ridge said. "In fact, I think you probably are. But it's likely that things are going to be pretty unpleasant in the short term, whatever we do."
"Like you said earlier, Michael," she pointed out, "politics ebb and flow. As long as Green Vale and the party whips can hold our majority in the Lords, there isn't really anything Alexander and his crowd can do except view with alarm. And when the current 'crisis' passes without Armageddon actually descending upon us, their efforts to generate panic will turn around and bite them in the opinion polls.
"And that," she said with a thin, cold smile, "will make all of this worthwhile."
Chapter Thirty Six
"Astro Control, this is Harvest Joy, requesting inbound clearance and vector. Harvest Joy, clear."
Josepha Zachary leaned back in her command chair and grinned hugely at Jordin Kare. The astrophysicist returned her grin with interest, then raised his right hand in the ancient thumbs-up gesture.
There was a moment of silence, and then the voice of the Astro Control approach officer sounded clearly over the survey ship's bridge speakers.
"Welcome home, Harvest Joy! We've been waiting for you. Clearance granted; stand by to copy vector."
* * *
"I, for one, think this is wonderful news," Abraham Spencer announced firmly.
The renowned financier looked around at his fellow guests. They were seated about a large conference table on an HD set, and among them they represented half a dozen of the best-known financial analysts of the entire Star Kingdom. Spencer himself was probably the most widely known and respected of them all, the long-time Chariman of the Crown Council of Financial Advisors and a confidant and advisor of many of the wealthiest individuals in the Star Kingdom, including Klaus Hauptman. He was also almost a hundred T-years old and one of those same wealthiest individuals in his own right . . . not to mention being handsome, silver-haired, and nearly as photogenic as he was rich.
"With all due respect, Abraham, I can't quite share your unbridled enthusiasm . . . again." Ellen DeMarco, CEO and chief analyst for the sprawling brokerage firm of DeMarco, Clancy, and Jordan, smiled. She was also a member of the CCFA and one of Spencer's closer friends, but they often found themselves on different sides of questions. "I think you may be allowing enthusiasm to get the better of levelheaded judgment this time. The Talbott Cluster is scarcely what I would call a high return market area!"
"Of course it isn't," Spencer replied. "But then, neither is Silesia, when you come right down to it, Ellen. I mean, let's face it. Silesia is riddled with pirates, graft, political corruption, human rights abuses—all of the things which make commerce risky and certainly fail to provide the kind of stable investment climate any rational person would look for. Nonetheless, the Star Kingdom shows an enormous profit in our trade with Silesia. However chaotic conditions there may be, it's a huge market. The margin may be low, but the sheer volume of the trade compensates."
"Perhaps it does," DeMarco conceded. "Although," she added with a wry smile, "you chose that particular example with malice aforethought, Abraham! You know perfectly well that I've been advising for years now against further exposure in Silesia."
"I?" Spencer asked innocently. "You think that I would be guilty of choosing an example on such an ignoble basis?"
"Of course I do. But to return to the point you've just made, Silesia, as you so accurately say, is a huge market. It contains scores of inhabited systems, each with its own population and needs. And for all the chronic instability in the area, we have long-standing relationships with the powers that be. We have no such relationships in the case of Talbott; there are only seventeen inhabited star systems in the entire 'cluster'; none of them have a system population in excess of three billion; and the Solarian League has very strong, direct interests in the region. As I see it, the potential economic return on expanding into that region is offset by the danger it poses to our relations with the League."
"There's something to that," Spencer agreed more seriously. "By the same token, though, I'd argue that our current relations with the Andermani aren't all that good where Silesia is concerned, either. I know that having problems with one neighbor isn't exactly the best reason to go around borrowing problems with another, but in this instance, I really don't see that we have a lot of options."
"Excuse me, Abraham," another participant said, "but we always have options."
"Does that reflect your personal view, Ms. Houseman?" Spencer asked. "Or does it reflect the opinion of your brother?"
"I haven't specifically discussed it with Reginald." There was the faintest hint of an edge in Jacqueline Houseman's voice, but she made an obvious effort to smile pleasantly at the older man. The two of them detested one another cordially, and it was an open secret that Spencer had strongly supported Elizabeth III when the Crown declined Prime Minister High Ridge's nomination of Ms. Houseman for membership on the CCFA. "On the other hand, I don't really have to. Options are what are available to anyone who keeps an open mind and is willing to question the comfortable assumptions of established thinking."
"A point I can entirely agree with." Spencer nodded. "In fact, it's a proposition which I've debated many times with your brother. I only asked because I wondered if the Government is finally prepared to comment officially on this matter."
"As I say, Reginald and I haven't really spoken about it," Houseman said. "And if the Government were about to take any sort of official position, I scarcely think I would be the proper spokesperson for it. On the other hand, you might reflect that Harvest Joy has been home for less than a week. It's just a bit early, don't you think, for the Government to be announcing any official policy decisions?"
"Perhaps. But I don't think it's too early for the Government to at least acknowledge that those decisions are going to have to be made," Spencer replied with a thin smile, and Houseman bristled.
"I scarcely think—" She began in a hotter tone, but Stephen Stahler, the program host, interrupted her smoothly.
"I think we're straying just a bit afield," he said firmly but pleasantly. "We're scheduled to discuss the political aspects of the situation in our next segment. In fact, I believe you and Mr. Spencer are both on that panel, as well, Ms. Houseman. Our focus at the moment, however, is on the economic aspects."
"You're quite correct, Stephen," Houseman said, and smiled more naturally. "Of course, as I'm sure Mr. Spencer would agree, government policy is going to have a major impact on the economic possibilities."
"Oh, certainly. There's no question that," Spencer agreed.
"Well, in that case, and without trying to lead the discussion off topic, I do think that it's legitimate to point out that whether or not we permit the location and . . . diplomatic considerations of this new terminus to dictate our attitude towards it is entirely up to us."
"I'm afraid I can't quite go along with that argument," Spencer said. "Leaving aside the political or diplomatic side of the equation, look at where Talbott lies. It's almost a third of the way around the periphery of the League from Manticore. When you add it to the connections we already have through Phoenix, Matapan, and—via Gregor—Asgerd, our shipping lanes will cover well over two-thirds of the League's total periphery, with huge reductions in transit times for cargos between points as distant from one another as, say, New Tasmania and Sondermann's Star. And that doesn't even consider the Beowulf terminus, which already gives our shippers direct, immediate access to be very heart of the League. That makes this terminus of literally incalculable value, completely regardless of the potential market in the Talbott Cluster itself. And that reality isn't going to go away simply because we decided not to allow it to 'dictate our attitude,' Ms
. Houseman."
"I think I have to agree with that portion of your analysis," DeMarco put in. "But by the same token, the potential for further straining our relations with the League also needs to be carefully considered. After all, the extent to which we're able to exploit the astrographic possibilities you've brought up is going to be influenced to a major degree by the attitude of the League government."
"Why?" Spencer asked. "It's not as if the League government were a particularly coherent entity, Ellen. And whatever it might attempt to decree by government fiat, reality will be driven by the potential utility of the connection. Not simply for us, but for all the shippers who will be able to cut months off of their transit times and reach markets they otherwise never could have. So, in my opinion . . ."
* * *
"What do you think, Elaine?" Baron High Ridge asked.
He and the Foreign Secretary sat before the HD in the Prime Minister's residence, watching the roundtable discussion. They'd been joined by Edward Janacek, and Stefan Young was also present in his capacity as Trade Secretary. Technically, High Ridge supposed, New Kiev ought to have been present, as well. Certainly, the Exchequer had a very strong natural interest in anything which promised to have this great an impact on the Star Kingdom's economy, and in this instance, the Prime Minister had made no particular effort to hold New Kiev at arm's length. In fact, he'd invited her to attend, and he wasn't entirely certain why she'd declined the invitation. Her official reason had been her daughter's wedding, and High Ridge was inclined to think the official reason was also the actual one. Of course, one could never be completely confident of that.
"What do I think about what?" Descroix asked. "About Spencer's argument? Or about whether or not Reginald's sister is an idiot?"