by Al Gore
614 causes thousands of fatalities
Yenni Kwok, “Across Asia, Dengue Fever Cases Reach Record Highs,” Time, September 24, 2010.
615 “breakbone fever”
Gardiner Harris, “As Dengue Fever Sweeps India, a Slow Response Stirs Experts’ Fears,” New York Times, November 6, 2012.
616 the extreme joint pain that is one of its worst symptoms
Margie Mason, “Dengue Fever Outbreak Hits Parts of Asia,” Associated Press, October 26, 2007.
617 Simultaneous outbreaks emerged in Asia, the Americas, and Africa
Suzanne Moore Shepherd, “Dengue,” Medscape Reference, http://emedicine.medscape.com/article/215840-overview.
618 the disease was largely contained until World War II
Ibid.
619 inadvertently spread by people during and after the war
Ibid.; Thomas Fuller, “The War on Dengue Fever,” New York Times, November 3, 2008.
620 In 2012, there were an estimated 37 million cases in India alone
Harris, “As Dengue Fever Sweeps India, a Slow Response Stirs Experts’ Fears.”
621 dengue’s range was still limited to tropical and subtropical regions
Jennifer Kyle and Eva Harris, “Global Spread and Persistence of Dengue,” Annual Review of Microbiology 62 (2008): 71–92.
622 dengue is likely to spread throughout the Southern United States
Sandle, “Link between Dengue Fever and Climate Change in the US.”
623 including HIV/AIDS
Jim Robbins, “The Ecology of Disease,” New York Times, July 15, 2012. The expansion of livestock farming into areas where wild animals are in close proximity has been implicated in the spreading of diseases from wildlife to domesticated animals and from there to people. The bird flu, for example, evolves in domesticated animals when it spreads from wild animals. HIV/AIDS spread to humans ninety years ago when African hunters killed chimpanzees and sold the meat for human consumption. The extremely deadly Ebola virus, first identified in the border regions of western South Sudan and northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1976, originated in chimpanzees, gorillas, monkeys, forest antelope, and fruit bats.
624 brought into close proximity with livestock
Ibid.
625 60 percent of the new infectious diseases
Sonia Shah, “The Spread of New Diseases: The Climate Connection,” Yale Environment 360, October 15, 2009.
626 that outnumber the cells of our bodies
Robert Stein, “Finally, a Map of All the Microbes on Your Body,” NPR, June 13, 2012, http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2012/06/13/154913334/finally-a-map-of-all-the-microbes-on-your-body.
627 with approximately 100 trillion microbes
Carl Zimmer, “Tending the Body’s Microbial Garden,” New York Times, June 19, 2012.
628 3 million nonhuman genes
“Microbes Maketh Man,” Economist, April 21, 2012, http://www.economist.com/node/21560559.
629 published the genetic sequencing of this community of bacteria
Human Microbiome Project Consortium, “A Framework for Human Microbiome Research,” Nature, June 14, 2012.
630 much like blood types—that exist in all races and ethnicities
Robert T. Gonzalez, “10 Ways the Human Microbiome Project Could Change the Future of Science and Medicine,” io9, June 25, 2012, http://io9.com/5920874/10-ways-the-human-microbiome-project-could-change-the-future-of-science-and-medicine.
631 All told, the team identified eight million
Rosie Mestel, “Microbe Census Maps Out Human Body’s Bacteria, Viruses, Other Bugs,” Los Angeles Times, August 13, 2012.
632 acquired immune system, particularly during infancy and childhood
James Randerson, “Antibiotics Linked to Huge Rise in Allergies,” New Scientist, May 27, 2004, http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn5047-antibiotics-linked-to-huge-rise-in-allergies.html.
633 “The microbial gut flora is an arm of the immune system”
Ibid.
634 which needs to learn to distinguish invaders from cells of the body itself
National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, Understanding Autoimmune Diseases, September 2010, http://www.niams.nih.gov/health_info/autoimmune/default.asp.
635 contributing to the apparent rapid rise of numerous diseases
Martin Blaser, “Antibiotic Overuse: Stop the Killing of Beneficial Bacteria,” Nature, August 25, 2011; Mette Nørgaard et al., Aarhus University Hospital, “Use of Penicillin and Other Antibiotics and Risk of Multiple Sclerosis: A Population-Based Case-Control Study,” American Journal of Epidemiology 174, no. 8 (2011): 945–48.
636 type 1 diabetes
Blaser, “Antibiotic Overuse.”
637 multiple sclerosis
Nørgaard et al., “Use of Penicillin and Other Antibiotics and Risk of Multiple Sclerosis.”
638 Crohn’s disease, and ulcerative colitis
“Antibiotic Use Tied to Crohn’s, Ulcerative Colitis,” Reuters, September 27, 2011.
639 human immune system is not fully developed at birth
Zimmer, “Tending the Body’s Microbial Garden.”
640 develops and matures after passage through the birth canal
Ibid.
641 Humans have the longest period of infancy and helplessness of any animal
Alison Gopnik, The Philosophical Baby: What Children’s Minds Tell Us About Truth, Love, and the Meaning of Life (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2009).
642 development of the brain following birth
David F. Bjorklund, Why Youth Is Not Wasted on the Young: Immaturity in Human Development (Malden, MA: Blackwell, 2007).
643 development and learning taking place in interaction with the environment
Gopnik, The Philosophical Baby.
644 to destroy invading viruses or bacteria
National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, September 2010, Understanding Autoimmune Diseases.
645 do not discriminate between harmful bacteria and beneficial bacteria
Zimmer, “Tending the Body’s Microbial Garden.”
646 Julie Segre, a senior investigator
Ibid.
647 human stomach that are involved in energy balance and appetite
Blaser, “Antibiotic Overuse.”
648 H. pylori has lived inside us in large numbers for 58,000 years
Kate Murphy, “In Some Cases, Even Bad Bacteria May Be Good,” New York Times, October 31, 2011.
649 single most common microbe in the stomachs of most human beings
Martin Blaser, “Antibiotic Overuse.”
650 “may also eradicate H. pylori in 20–50% of cases”
Ibid.
651 has been found to play a role in both gastritis
Murphy, “In Some Cases, Even Bad Bacteria May Be Good.”
652 “more likely to develop asthma, hay fever or skin allergies in childhood”
Blaser, “Antibiotic Overuse.”
653 Its absence is also associated with increased acid reflux
Ibid.
654 H. pylori into the guts of mice serves to protect them against asthma
Murphy, “In Some Cases, Even Bad Bacteria May Be Good.”
655 approximately 160 percent throughout the world in the last two decades
Randerson, “Antibiotics Linked to Huge Rise in Allergies.”
656 ghrelin, is one of the keys to appetite
Murphy, “In Some Cases, Even Bad Bacteria May Be Good.”
657 caused by harmful microbes normally kept in check by beneficial microbes
Zimmer, “Tending the Body’s Microbial Garden.”
658 when the balance of their internal microbiome was restored
Ibid.
CHAPTER 6: THE EDGE
1 into the extraordinarily thin shell of atmosphere
Glen Peters et al., “Rapid Growth in CO2 Emissions After the 2008–2009 Gl
obal Financial Crisis,” Nature Climate Change 2 (2012): 2–4.
2 Industrial Revolution at a rate
Original calculations were derived from: Scott Mandia, “Global Warming: Man or Myth: And You Think the Oil Spill Is Bad?,” June 17, 2010, http://profmandia.wordpress.com/2010/06/17/and-you-think-the-oil-spill-is-bad/. Mandia’s original calculations were revised to reflect later scientific estimates of the number of barrels per day. Source: Marcia McKnutt et al., “Review of Flow Rate Estimates of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, December 20, 2011.
3 prospective extinction of 20 to 50 percent of all the living species
Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
4 400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs
James Hansen, “Why I Must Speak Out About Climate Change,” TED Talks, February 2012.
5 already competitive with the average grid price for electricity
“Commercial Solar Now Cost-Competitive in US,” CleanTechnica, June 20, 2012, http://cleantechnica.com/2012/06/20/commercial-solar-now-cost-competitive-us/; “Wind Innovations Drive Down Costs, Stock Prices,” Bloomberg, March 14, 2012, http://go.bloomberg.com/multimedia/wind-innovations-drive-down-costs-stock-prices/; “Grid Parity and Beyond: Brazilian Wind Energy Supported by Turbines Manufactured at ‘Chinese Prices,’ ” CleanTechInvestor, August 29, 2011, http://www.cleantechinvestor.com/events/es/bwec-blog/301-grid-parity-and-beyond-brazilian-wind-energy-supported-by-turbines-manufactured-at-chinese-prices-.html.
6 renewables will be the second-largest source of power generation by 2015
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012.
7 each and every hour than would be needed for all of the world’s energy consumption
Nathan Lewis and Daniel Nocera, “Powering the Planet: Chemical Challenges in Solar Energy Utilization,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103 (October 2006): 15729–35.
8 wind energy also exceeds
Xi Lu et al., “Global Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106 (June 2009): 10933–38.
9 there were periods when Germany
Reuters, “Solar Power Generation World Record Set in Germany,” Guardian, May 28, 2012.
10 entire world’s additional electricity generation
Fiona Harvey, “Renewable Energy Can Power the World, Says Landmark IPCC Study,” Guardian, May 9, 2011.
11 exceeded those in fossil fuels ($187 billion, compared to $157 billion)
Alex Morales, “Renewable Power Trumps Fossils for First Time as UN Talks Stall,” Bloomberg News, November 25, 2011.
12 102 percent over those installed just one year earlier
Climate Guest Blogger, “Solar Is the ‘Fastest Growing Industry in America’ and Made Record Cost Reductions in 2010,” Think Progress ClimateProgress, September 16, 2011, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/09/16/321131/solar-fastest-growing-industry-in-america-and-made-record-cost-reductions/.
13 approximately 30 percent of all CO2 emissions come from buildings
Harvard Center for Health and the Global Environment, “The Built Environment,” http://chge.med.harvard.edu/topic/built-environment.
14 of all buildings needed by 2050, two thirds have yet to be built
Alexis Biller and Chris Phillips, “The Role of Engineering in the Built Environment,” Institution of Engineering and Technology lecture, London, November 26, 2009.
15 “30 percent of the energy consumed in commercial buildings is wasted”
A Better Building. A Better Bottom Line. A Better World, Environmental Protection Agency brochure (2010), http://www.energystar.gov/ia/partners/publications/pubdocs/C+I_brochure.pdf.
16 more concern about global warming than most elected officials
“Climate Change May Challenge National Security, Classified Report Warns,” ScienceDaily, June 26, 2008, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080625090302.htm.
17 “our government, our institutions and our borders”
Don Belt, “The Coming Storm: Bangladesh,” National Geographic, May 2005.
18 “direct cause of large-scale human crises”
David Zhang and Harry Lee, “The Causality Analysis of Climate Change and Large-Scale Human Crisis,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108 (March 2011): 17296–301.
19 Central America and the temporary colonization of southern Greenland
Scott Mandia, Suffolk University, “Vikings During the Medieval Warm Period,” http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/lia/vikings_during_mwp.html; Brian Fagan, The Long Summer: How Climate Changed Civilization (New York: Basic Books, 2004), p. 236.
20 paddled their kayaks to Scotland; farther south, millions died
Scott Mandia, Suffolk University, “The Little Ice Age in Europe,” http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/lia/little_ice_age.html.
21 a chain of events leading to the Black Death
Lei Xu et al., “Nonlinear Effect of Climate on Plague During the Third Pandemic in China,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, May 4, 2011.
22 unusually large eruption of the Tambora volcano
“Volcanic Eruption, Tambora,” Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change (Chichester, UK: Wiley, 2002), pp. 737–38.
23 An estimated 25 percent of the CO2
David Archer and Victor Brovkin, “The Millennial Atmospheric Lifetime of Anthropogenic CO2,” Climatic Change 90 (2008): 283–97; personal correspondence with Daniel Schrag, January 19, 2011.
24 have occurred in the last ten years
NASA, “NASA Finds 2011 Ninth-Warmest Year on Record,” January 19, 2012, http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2011-temps.html.
25 flooding in Pakistan that displaced 20 million people
“Pakistan Floods Leave 20 Million Homeless,” CBC News, August 14, 2010, http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2010/08/14/pakistan-floods-homeless.html.
26 unprecedented heat waves in Europe in 2003
J. Robine et al., “Death Toll Exceeded 70,000 in Europe During Summer of 2003,” Comptes Rendus Biologies, February 2008.
27 Russia in 2010 that led to 55,000 deaths
“World Disasters Report: 2010 Death Toll Highest in Decade,” Red Cross, September 22, 2011, http://www.redcross.org.au/world-disasters-report-2010-death-toll-highest-in-decade.aspx.
28 massive fires, and crop damage that pushed global food prices
“World Food Prices at Fresh High, Says UN,” BBC, January 5, 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12119539.
29 the flooding of northeastern Australia in 2011
J. David Goodman, “Australia Flooding Displaces Thousands,” New York Times, December 31, 2010.
30 the huge droughts in southern China
Edward Wong, “Drought Leaves 14 Million Chinese and Farmland Parched,” New York Times, September 9, 2010.
31 southwestern North America in 2011
Kim Severson and Kirk Johnson, “14 States Suffering Under Drought,” New York Times, July 12, 2011.
32 Superstorm Sandy
James Barron, “After the Devastation, a Daunting Recovery,” New York Times, October 30, 2012.
33 warmer air holds more water vapor
Kevin Trenberth, “Changes in Precipitation with Climate Change,” Climate Research 47 (2010): 123–38.
34 has a large effect on the hydrological cycle
Ibid.
35 funnel it inward into the regions where storm conditions trigger a downpour
Kevin Trenberth, “Conceptual Framework for Changes of Extremes of the Hydrological Cycle with Climate Change,” Climatic Change 42 (1999): 327–39.
36 down through the soil to recharge the underground aquifers
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group 2, “3.4.2 Groundwater,” 2007, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch3s3-4-2.html.
37 l
ocal temperatures rise higher still
Ben Brabson et al., “Soil Moisture and Predicted Spells of Extreme Temperatures in Britain,” Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (2004).
38 topsoil becomes more vulnerable to wind erosion
New South Wales Government, “Wind Erosion,” March 2, 2011, http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/soildegradation/winder.htm.
39 “not understanding the highly dangerous situation we are in”
Justin Gillis, “A Warming Planet Struggles to Feed Itself,” New York Times, June 6, 2011.
40 record one-month price increase for food
Yaneer Bar-Yam and Greg Lindsay, “The Real Reason for Spikes in Food Prices,” Reuters, October 25, 2012.
41 record price hikes predicted for 2013
Emma Rowley and Garry White, “World on Track for Record Food Prices ‘Within a Year’ Due to US Drought,” Telegraph, September 23, 2012.
42 More than 65 percent of the U.S. suffered from drought conditions
Michael Pearson and Melissa Abbey, “U.S. Drought Biggest Since 1956, Climate Agency Says,” CNN, July 17, 2012, http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/16/us/us-drought/index.html.
43 “but it will rain in the non-rainy season”
Gillis, “A Warming Planet Struggles to Feed Itself.”
44 “an under-recognition of just how sensitive crops are to heat”
Justin Gillis, “Food Supply Under Strain on a Warming Planet,” New York Times, June 4, 2011.
45 that the CO2 fertilization effect is much smaller than predicted
Ibid.
46 weeds appear to benefit from extra CO2 much more
Tim Christopher, “Can Weeds Help Solve the Climate Crisis?,” New York Times, June 9, 2008.
47 above a threshold of 84 degrees
Schlenker and Roberts, “Nonlinear Temperature Effects Indicate Severe Damages to U.S. Crop Yields under Climate Change.”
48 yield declines plummet further with every degree added
Ibid.
49 disruption of precipitation patterns taking a large toll still
Ibid.
50 same accelerated drops in yields begin when temperatures reach and exceed
Ibid.
51 spring is arriving about a week earlier (and fall about a week later)
Alexander Stine et al., “Changes in the Phase of the Annual Cycle of Surface Temperature,” Nature, January 22, 2009.