After we studied methods of fifteenth-century Venetian accounting (a favorite subject of Fred’s), he led me to the literature of economic theory. I had not studied economics before. An advisor at Princeton had told me at an impressionable age that economics was not a fit subject for a gentleman. “One must have one’s money,” he said to a penurious undergraduate, “but one need not think of it.”
Fred dismissed that attitude with the contempt that it deserved. He approached economic theory in historical terms, and encouraged me to burrow into the Hutzler Collection, a wonderful library of economic theory that had been lovingly assembled by the owner of a Baltimore department store. I read the classics in first editions, a few with marginalia by their authors. Fred and I had urgent conversations on theoretical problems that are no longer urgent today_the theory of surplus value which he judged to be Karl Marx’s only contribution to knowledge, and the monetarist theories of Irving Fisher and Earl Hamilton, who Fred Lane knew and respected.
To work with Fred Lane was to meet the leading economic historians of his generation, who came from many nations to visit him. It was to share the camaraderie that still exists among an international fraternity. My thinking was strongly influenced by conversations with Michael Postan, a friend of Fred’s who came to Baltimore in 1959. He was a small ginger-haired British medievalist who taught me his Malthusian approach to historical problems. His influence can be seen in the pages of this work.
Fred’s friends included Fernand Braudel and the leading French historians of what would later be called the “Annales school.” I did not hear that expression until much later in the 1960s. Fred knew them in another way. In 1958 and 1959 we studied the work of the martyred Marc Bloch and Lucien Febvre and Fernand Braudel not for their methods but for their results.
In Fred and his friends I met an ideal of disinterested scholarship that began with an act of faith that the pursuit of truth was a worthy end in itself. Today that idea is regarded with contempt by a “post-modern” generation (as it had been in the 1920s and 1930s). But Fred was a believer, and so am I. At Johns Hopkins I was lucky to study with other historians who were believers too: Owen Lattimore, Sidney Painter, Wilson Smith, and Vann Woodward. Fred was in that company. The integrity of his scholarship, and especially his way of combining breadth with rigor, has been a continuing inspiration to me.
In 1962, I finished my graduate work at Johns Hopkins and took a job at Brandeis. Shortly afterward, Fred retired and moved to his ancestral home in Massachusetts. I was able to arrange for him to join the faculty at Brandeis. He became my colleague, but always he remained my teacher. During the late 1960s, while working mainly in American history, I taught an occasional course on the history of Italy in the quattrocento, and in the 1970s began to teach a course on the main lines of change in modern history. Both grew very much from the work I had done with Fred Lane.
In 1979, those courses gave rise to a short essay that summarized the central themes of this book. The essay was commissioned by B. A. Rittersporn for The Journal of the Institute of Socioeconomic Studies. I am grateful for his encouragement, and for the generous support of Leonard M. Greene, president of the Institute of Socieconomic Studies in White Plains, New York.
Much of the research for this project was done in four great library systems: Harvard, the New York Public Library, Oxford and Brandeis. A special word of thanks is due to the Brandeis reference staff, the best I have ever known, who literally never failed to find the answer to many difficult questions.
My Brandeis students have as always taught their teacher more than he taught them. On this subject, I have learned much from Winifred Rothenberg whose dissertation I was privileged to direct. Winnie has done the best American price history of this generation. Her work is a model for us all.
While I was teaching at Oxford, I got to know Henry Phelps-Brown whose work revolutionized price history by centering it on the experience of ordinary people, and correcting the elitist bias that had dominated earlier scholarship. Henry Phelps-Brown was a distinguished British civil servant, and a great scholar who shared the same devotion to truth that I have found in so many other price historians. I learned much from our conversations, and my wife and I remember with pleasure the kindness and generosity with which Henry and Evelyn Phelps-Brown received two Americans who were far from home.
The first book-length draft of this work was presented to a conference on quantification in economics and history at California Institute of Technology. I remember with thanks the hospitality of our hosts in Pasadena, Morgan Kousser and Lance Davis, and also acknowledge with gratitude the advice and suggestions of the members of the conference—among them, David Galenson, Maris Vinovskis, and Daniel Scott Smith. After the conference, Claudia Goldin and Stanley Engerman generously took time from their busy schedules to read the manuscript. Special thanks are due to Samuel Cohn of the University of Glasgow, who also read the manuscript and shared his expertise in social and economic history of the early modern era. My good friend, John Rowett of Brasenose College, Oxford, had many constructive suggestions for the modern period.
Portions of this work were presented as a public lecture at Connecticut College, where I remember with thanks the hospitality of President Oakes Ames and members of the Department of History. Other ideas were tried out on students and history faculty at Oxford University. A revised draft was presented as a lecture at Dartmouth College in 1994.
At the Oxford University Press, my editor and friend of thirty years, Sheldon Meyer, read the manuscript and made many suggestions for its improvement. Joellyn Ausanka shepherded the book through the press, and India Cooper was a superb copy editor. Jeffrey Ward created the maps for the book, and it was a pleasure to collaborate with him. Greg Meyer helped us to get started on the graphs, and contributed to the project his expertise with the Excel program. Mark Fisher, Kimberly Gazes, Susan Hendricks, and Deborah Melkin worked as research assistants. Judy Brown and Ina Malaguti were as efficient as ever. My wife Judith took time from her busy career to help when deadlines loomed. Susanna, Anne, Fred, John, Ann, Will, Kate and my brother Miles Fischer contributed their encouragement and advice. My parents were as always an example of wisdom and support. This book is dedicated to them, as a small token of the love that all of their children and grandchildren feel for them.
Wayland, Massachusetts D. H. F
April 1996
CREDITS
Permission is gratefully acknowledged for the following: Agricultural History Review, for data in C. J. Harrison, “Grain Price Analysis and Harvest Qualities, 1465–1634,” 19 (1971), 139–51.
Annales E.S.C., for data in Elisabeth Carpentier, “Autour de la peste noir,” 17 (1962) 1062–92.
Cambridge University Press, for data in Michel Morineau, Incroyables gazettes et fabuleux métaux (1985); Margaret Spufford, Contrasting Communities (1974); Joan Thirsk, ed., The Agrarian History of England and Wales Vol. II, 1042–1350, H. E. Hallam, ed. (1988); and Vol. V, 1640–1750 (1985).
Economica, for data in Henry Phelps-Brown and Sheila V. Hopkins, “Seven Centuries of the Prices of Consumables compared with Builders’ Wage Rates,” 23 (1956) 311–314; and idem, “Wage Rates, Prices and Population Pressure,” 26 (1959) 26, 35–37.
Harvard University press, for data in Earl Hamilton, American Treasure and the Price Revolution in Spain (1935); Barbara Hanawalt, Crime and Conflict in English Communities (1979); Peter Laslett, Karla Osterveen and Richard M. Smith, ed., Bastardy and Its Comparative History (1980); Frank Spooner, The International Economy and Monetary Movements in France, 1493–1725 (1972); E. A. Wrigley and R. S. Schofield, The Population History of England, 1541–1871 (1981).
Journal of the Social and Economic History of the Orient, for data in Howard Farber, “A Price and Wage Study in Northern Babylonia . . .” 21 (1978) 34.
Journal of Studies on Alcohol, Inc., for data in M. M. Hyman, M. A. Zimmermann, C. Guroli and A. Helrich, eds., Drinkers, Drinking, and Alcohol-Related Mortality an
d Hospitalizations: A Statistical Compendium (New Brunswick, 1980).
Münsterische Beitràge zur antiken Handelsgeschichte, for data in H.-J. Drexhage, “Eselpreis im römischen Ägypten: ein Beitrag zum Binnenhandel” 5 (1986) 34–48.
Northwestern University Press, for data in David Herlihy, “Santa Maria Impruneta,” in Nicolai Rubenstein, ed., Florentine Studies (Evanston, 1968).
Princeton University Press, for data in J. S. Cockburn, ed., Crime in England, 1550–1800 (1977)
Rand McNally, for base maps in R. R. Palmer, Atlas of World History (Chicago, 1957).
Sage Publications, Inc., for data in Ted Robert Gurr, ed., Rogues, Rebels & Reformers: A Political History of Urban Crime and Conflict (Beverly Hills and London, 1976).
St. Martins Press, for data in Wilhelm Abel, Agricultural Fluctuations in Europe (New York, 1980).
Scandinavian University Press, for data in C. A. Christensen, “Aendringen i landsbyen økenomiske og sociale struktur i det 14 og 15-århundred,” Historisk Tidsskrift 12 (1964) 364.
INDEX
PAGE NUMBERS IN ITALICS REFER TO FIGURES AND NOTES.
Abel, Wilhelm, 3, 5, 132, 242, 244, 286, 341n1, 342n1, 343–44n1, 364, 367, 371–72, 409, 410, 413, 474
Abramowitz, Moses, 276
account, money of, 282–84
Adelman, Irma, 274
administered prices, 250, 280, 428, 450
Afghanistan, 231
Africa: bibliography, 268, 439, 454, 500
and causes of price revolutions, 245
disease in, 41, 229
and eighteenth century price revolution, 129
famine in, 229
in fourteenth century, 41, 265–68, 454
gold in, 48
medieval price revolution in, 41, 48
politics in, 149
population in, 229
and Renaissance equilibrium, 48
and twentieth century price revolution, 188, 229, 243, 500
and Victorian equilibrium, 168
African Americans, 301
agrarian models. See Labrousse, C. E.
Labrousse cycles
agriculture, 8, 47, 168, 328n4, 424, 447, 455, 475. See also Food prices; Grain prices; Labrousse cycles
alcohol consumption, 173, 176, 225, 227, 228, 239, 248
Aldcroft, Derek H., 364
Alfonso II (king of Castille), 13
Algeria, 231
Alsace, 78
American colonies, 103, 127, 134, 135, 139, 141, 294, 348n13. See also American Revolution; United States
American Revolution, 121, 129, 140, 141, 150, 152, 487–88
American treasure, 81–83, 82, 108–9, 128, 129, 332n14, 335n24, 336n36, 336–37n37, 337n38
Americas, 271–72, 474, 480. See also Latin America; North America; specific nation
Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 96, 120, 129
ancient world, 259–64, 435–39
Andalusia, 76
Anderson, T. W., 277
Angers, France, 95
Annales school, 315, 367, 369–70, 406, 477
Antwerp, Belgium, 80, 87, 88, 336n29
Arab states, 202, 210, 231. See also Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC)
Aragon, 48
Argentina, 168, 188, 232, 372
arms and armor, 22, 322n19
art and architecture, 59, 62, 100, 110, 153, 238
Asahara, Shoko, 232
Asia: bibliography, 440, 493, 499, 500
causes of death in, 265
and causes of price revolutions, 245
disease in, 191
and eighteenth century price revolution, 121
in fourteenth century, 265
population in, 233
and Renaissance equilibrium, 48
trade with, 48
and twentieth century price revolution, 191, 499–500
and Victorium equilibrium, 493. See also specific nation
Asturia, 263
Atkinson’s (A. B.) index, 291
Atwell, W. S., 268
Augsburg, Germany, 70
Australia, 168, 308, 373, 398, 493
Austria: bibliography, 373, 398
and eighteenth century price revolution, 120, 132, 149
and Enlightenment equilibrium, 110
grain prices in, 6, 120
hyperinflation in, 193
money in, 193
population in, 96
and sixteenth century price revolution, 96, 335n28
and twentieth century price revolution, 193, 194, 203
and Victorian equilibrium, 171
wages in, 132, 335n28
and wars, 121, 149, 157, 171
Austria-Hungary, 181
Austro-Prussian War, 157
d’Avenel, Georges, 28, 104, 344n4, 366, 378
Avignon, 39, 40–41
Azpilcueta, Martin de, 84
Aztecs, 266
Babylon: ancient, 259
Bach, Johann Sebastian, 103, 113
Bacon, Francis, 92
Baehrel, René, 342n2, 406–7
Baldwin II (emperor), 30
Baldwin, Stanley, 195
Balkan states, 152. See also Yugoslavia
Baltic states, 95
Baltimore, Maryland, 155
Bank of England, 224–25
banking, 33–34, 59, 110, 249, 458–59, 466, 490, 494
Baqir, Ghalib M., 274–75
Baron, Hans, 62, 331n24
Barraclough, Geoffrey, 188, 275
Barro, Robert J., 427
Bath, Slicher van, 341n1
Baxter, W. T., 283, 284
Bayle, Pierre, 113
Beauvais, 276
Belgium: bibliography, 373, 374, 398, 442, 458, 463
and eighteenth century price revolution, 120, 131, 149
energy prices in, 21
grain prices in, 120
interest rates in, 80
medieval price revolution in, 20, 442
money in, 82, 182
religion in, 87
and Renaissance equilibrium, 458
returns to land in, 77, 131
and sixteenth century price revolution, 77, 80, 82, 87, 463
social unrest in, 149
and twentieth century price revolution, 182, 203, 217. See also Low Countries
Benedict XI (pope), 39
Berlin, Germany, 102, 110
Berne, Switzerland, 149
Beveridge, William, 17, 276, 367, 368, 418
Bezanson (Anne) index, 272
bibliography: and bibliographies of price history, 363–64
and primary sources, 365–406
and secondary sources, 406–501
Bieshaar, Hans, 275
Black Death, 41, 42–43, 44–45, 44, 46, 95, 96, 101, 240, 252, 267, 341n1, 451–52
Blair, John M., 208, 358n11
Blinder, Alan S., 7, 278
Bloch, Marc, 317n1, 368, 406
Blum, Jerome, 89
Bodin, Jean, 84, 242, 249
Bois, Guy, 327n9, 328n13, 333–34n18
Bolivia, 374
Bombay, India, 176
Boniface VIII (pope), 39
Bonn, Julius Moritz, 459
Boorstin, Daniel, 256
Bornu Empire, 269
Boserup, Esther, 126
Boston, Massachusetts, 135
Bourbonnais, 126
Bovill, E. W., 268
Bowley, Arthur, 294, 298
Bowley’s Law, 294, 297
Box, Alderman, 85
Bracciolini, Poggio, 331n24
Brakelond, Jocelin de, 28–29
Brandenberg, 124
Braudel, Fernand P., 5, 7–8, 176, 241, 286, 332n14, 333n14, 336n55, 342n2, 360n7, 367, 372, 410–11, 413, 434, 460, 474
Brazil, 234, 270, 375, 399
Brenner, Robert, 434, 435
Brenner, Y. S., 87, 34052
Breslau, Germany, 35
Bretton Woods agreement (1971–73), 224
Bridbu
ry, A. R., 38, 324n31
Bridlington, Canon of, 34
Britain: bibliography, 392, 397, 404, 420, 423, 485
commodity prices in, 181
Depression in, 195
and eighteenth century price revolution, 128, 130, 134, 135, 136–37, 137, 139, 140, 141, 149, 152, 153, 154, 155, 173
and Enlightenment equilibrium, 348n20
family disintegration in, 137, 173
food prices in, 153
gold in, 152, 194
grain prices in, 137, 173
inequalities in, 135, 136–37, 139, 193, 420
inflation in, 180, 182, 225
interest rates in, 129, 130, 140, 163, 180, 221, 225, 348n20
money in, 128–29, 149, 152, 182, 191, 282–83
politics in, 162, 203–4, 240
price controls/rationing in, 191, 196, 197
religion in, 134
returns to capital in, 129, 130, 162, 163, 180, 221
social unrest in, 162, 485
taxes in, 139, 141
and twentieth century price revolution, 173, 179–81, 182, 184, 188, 189, 191, 192, 193, 194, 195, 196, 197, 199, 203–4, 217, 221, 224–25, 233, 359n30
and Victorian equilibrium, 156, 157, 158, 162, 163, 171–76, 173, 176, 282–83, 491
wages in, 180, 192, 195
and wars, 129, 130, 135, 149, 153, 154, 155, 162, 171–76, 189, 197
welfare in, 132, 195
wholesale prices in, 158, 181, 189, 192, 194, 199. See also England; Ireland; Scotland; Wales
Bruni, Leonardo, 331n24
Brunt, P. A., 262
Bryan, William Jennings, 181
bubble inflation, 280
Bulgaria, 399
Buonsignori banks, 33
Burma, 210
Burns, Arthur F., 276–77, 287
Burton, Robert, 100–101
Burundi, 229
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