by Joan Francis
It was 10:45 by the time I got to the hotel, but with an insurance seminar, I didn’t expect to miss much. I displayed my Shimmerhorn ID, picked up my seminar packet, and headed for the morning session in the River Room. Before I even got the door open, I could hear a loud, angry voice echoing around the cavernous hall.
“. . . half the folks are already out of work because of those God damn tree huggers, and I haven’t seen any of that bullshit proven. I’ll be damned if I’ll go back to Oregon and raise insurance rates on my people because of some fairy tale about global warming.”
Unlike most of the suited attendees, the speaker wore a plaid shirt, jeans with suspenders, and a billed cap. The woolen shirt was open, exposing a T-shirt that read, “TRY WIPING YOUR BUTT WITH A SPOTTED OWL.” He was a huge man, six foot five, over three hundred pounds, and very little of that bulk was fat. His eyebrows and eyelashes were so blond that they were almost white. I would have bet money that this guy should have been at a logging tattoo, rather than an insurance seminar, and I wouldn’t have been surprised if he’d had a large blue ox waiting patiently in the parking lot.
“So you can take this shit,” he shook the conference packet menacingly at Borson/Niedlemyer, “and shove it up your ass, because I’ll quit and go on God damn welfare before I’ll help this company screw over my people.”
Well, so much for my not missing anything by arriving late.
* * * * *
SEVENTEEN
The Oregon Paul Bunyan looked around the conference hall, seeing shock and disapproval on many faces. Some folks seated nearby were actually leaning away to distance themselves from him. I liked him immediately. He reminded me of my dad, rough, tough, independent, and incorruptibly principled. I selected a chair just two away from him.
As he looked into the disapproving faces around him, his tone changed from angry to resigned. “Hell,” he said, “I’ve been there before.”
As he sat down, he caught the smile on my face and did a double take. The look he gave me said he was ready to take me on if I was laughing at him. I gave him a thumb’s up. His expression changed, and he gave me a conspiratorial wink.
The audience reaction was mixed. At first there were some audible criticisms of Paul Bunyan’s language and opinions, then some loud and strongly expressed approval.
As Niedlemyer waited out the audience, he was smiling affably and nodding his head in understanding. Only the dark red flush of his neck and ears revealed that he wasn’t as cool as he was pretending to be. His eyes moved from Bunyan to me, first a glance, then he looked back and held me in his gaze for several seconds. While being subjected to his close examination, I noticed that the audience seated in a semicircle around his podium was not as large as I had anticipated. Perhaps plopping myself down at the center of attention was not the cleverest thing I could have done.
When the audience quieted, he spoke in a calm, reasonable, non-confrontational voice, dripping with empathy. “I know you have been there before, Sven. I know that when ecological concerns shut down your logging business in Oregon, you had to go on welfare for a while to feed your family. I also know how hard it was for a man like you to do that. The important thing is that you did it so you could survive. Then you adapted. You learned a new business, and you adapted and survived.” He paused, and there was quiet throughout the hall.
“I sincerely hope you do not quit, Sven, because you have the qualities your people and all of us will need. Our neighbors, our states, our country, and, yes, our insurance company, will need to adapt in order to survive. Will you hear me out, Sven?”
Sven clenched his jaws as he considered his answer. “I’ll listen, Nate, but I won’t promise anything.”
“Nate.” That was a more fitting handle for this tidy little man than Borson. He had won a momentary truce with Sven and had quieted the fractious audience, but I doubted he could really win hearts and minds in this crowd. Though they might have disapproved of Sven’s earthy language, most of the audience seemed to agree with him in principal. They didn’t appear to be toting Sierra Club cards.
“That’s fair enough. You’re right, Sven. There is still debate about global warming, and I’m not here today to tell you I have all the answers. I’m here to tell you what we know for sure, what we think is possible, and how we propose to prepare ourselves, our company, and our insured. First, let’s examine what we actually know. What can we designate as fact?
“Fact one: We know the global mean temperature is going up at an alarming rate, more than one degree Fahrenheit over the Twentieth century. The thirteen hottest years occurred since 1980.
“Fact two: We know there is a natural greenhouse effect. That is, the gasses of our atmosphere, such as water vapor, CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide, trap heat and radiate it back to the Earth, keeping the Earth warmer than it would be from just the sun’s rays.
“Fact three: We know that man’s activities have greatly increased the greenhouse gasses. With the burning of fossil fuels, CO2 has increased thirty percent. Right now we are dumping seven billion metric tons a year into the atmosphere, and it stays up there for a hundred years. Methane has increased five times as fast. Those extra gasses add extra heat to the planet. The hotter it gets, the more water evaporates. The more water vapor in the air, the more it heats up. In short, the hotter it gets, the hotter it gets. Every year more emerging nations–”
“Wait a minute! Whose fact is this?”
The interruption came from a gentleman to my left who sported a thousand-dollar suit, a beautifully coiffed head of gray hair, and an East Texas twang to his speech.
“Every time one of those flower sniffers comes on TV like Chicken Little to claim the sky is falling, some more sensible scientist comes on and gives a very different interpretation of the ‘facts.’ We don’t know that it’s humans doing this. This old world has warmed and cooled lots of times before. You start shutting down oil wells and cattle ranches, you’ll see what real disaster is.”
There was a general hubbub as the audience mumbled their agreement or disagreement. Before Nate regained control, Sven rose again and chimed in.
“That’s right. All those damn hippies have to do is claim some rat or bird is endangered, and the next thing you know the whole damn town is outta work. It’s not enough they wrecked the loggin’ business, now they hafta start in on oil. Guess next they’ll want us to go back to horses.” He paused and added with a grin, “Now that could cause some real pollution that you city folks might not be familiar with.”
An uneasy laugh tittered through the crowd. Nate let it play out, then, ignoring Sven, he turned to the Texan and asked, “David, why are you so sure that this scientist is more sensible?”
“Well, because he’s not just some nut out there burning for a cause. He’s not a politician or a government mooch just trying to save his own job. He doesn’t have an axe to grind.”
“I see. Are you sure he has no axe to grind? Please turn to page seven in your conference packets. This is a list of ‘scientists, organizations, and think tanks who are supported directly by the oil and coal industry, and the amounts of cash they receive annually. Their job is to make sure that any information contrary to industry interest is countered by an opposing view. If the scientists you are listening to are like these, they do have an axe to grind.”
The expression on David’s face made verbal response unnecessary. Nate smiled and said quite affably, “David, you look like you don’t believe me.”
“Well, if you want to be frank about it, no, I don’t. You’re trying to tell me that the oil industry can buy off every newspaper and TV station in our country, and I’m sorry, but I don’t believe that. We still have a free country here.”
This drew enthusiastic applause.
“Exactly, David. We do have a free country and a free press, and that is precisely how it’s done.” He paused to allow his audience to chew on that one.
“One of the best traits of our free press is that its members usu
ally try to present both sides of an issue. But in this case, that very quality of fairness in reporting allows oil interests to use a few key spokesmen to present their side of the issue against the opinion of more than two thousand international scientists. The newspapers and television news give equal time to both sides, making it look like an even argument, but it is not.”
David folded his arms across his chest and closed his eyes. He might as well have stuck his fingers in his ears.
“David, don’t take my word for it. Research it for yourself. Of course, you will have to read something besides Lyle Gorman’s editorial in the East Texas Times. Get on the Internet and read world opinion. You will learn that there is virtually unanimous agreement by every other industrial country in the world that we are facing a crisis in global warming. Europe is even considering trade embargos to make the United States join in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”
That was definitely the wrong tack. The East Texan shouted back, “That’s exactly why we should quit dumping money into that damned UN to support those commie bastards. We are the most powerful and richest nation on Earth, and nobody has the right to tell us how to run our country. We been doing just fine by ourselves. How the hell do you think we got to be numero uno, huh?”
A man in the first row stood up and didn’t wait for Nate to call on him. “You’re telling me the whole rest of the world knows we’re headed for disaster, and the oil guys are keeping it secret. Give me a break.”
The noise level in the room rose several decibels, and Nate had to lean into the mike and speak loudly. “Please sit down, Harry. David, Sven, all of you, I’ll pay you each one hundred dollars to do your own research. I’ll give a thousand dollars to anyone who can prove that global warming is not a real threat to our country, our company bottom line, and, our jobs, yours and mine.”
Their jobs! Maybe I was wrong about Nate’s persuasive abilities. One of Nixon’s aides was supposed to have a cartoon on his wall that said something on the order of, “If you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.”
Nate continued to talk over the audience clamor. “No, I’ll make that five thousand to anyone who can prove global warming is not a threat.”
Carrot and stick, now he at least had their attention. They quieted. “Many of your offices have already suffered tremendous losses due to extreme weather events. In the last twenty years we have witnessed the worst floods, fires, hurricanes, and tornados ever recorded by man.” He paused, then with a very charming, little boy grin, added, “Well, unless you count the flood reported by Noah.”
That won him a laugh and lessened the tensions in the room. “In the last twenty years of the twentieth century, our industry paid for damages in forty-two weather-related disasters that cost over one billion dollars each. Thirty-six of these events occurred between 1988 and 1999, costing us one hundred and seventy billion dollars. In May of 1999 we had a single tornado event that spawned more than seventy-five tornadoes. One of them was more than a half a mile across and stayed on the ground for four hours. And it didn’t just blow Dorothy over the rainbow. Fifty-four people died. Over ten thousand homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed. You beginning to see a pattern here?
You could hear a pin drop. No one even coughed.
Now look at the tables in your conference packets and follow that pattern into the twenty-first century and notice our company losses. I am sorry to tell you the evidence suggests this is only the beginning. As global warming increases, so will extreme weather disasters. How much can our company, or any insurance company, take before we go bankrupt? What good can we do for our employees or our insured if we’re broke?”
A neatly dressed woman in the first row raised her hand. Nate said, “Yes, Kay?”
I was beginning to see a pattern here, and it wasn’t just a weather pattern. So far everyone Nate spoke to he knew by sight and name. Did he know all his regional managers that well? If so, Clara Shimmerhorn was in deep trouble.
Kay rose and said, “Okay, so say we accept global warming, but you said it was warming at an alarming rate, and you also said it had only gone up one degree in the last hundred years. In Tucson our temperature can change forty degrees from noon to midnight. I can’t see why one degree would make that much difference.”
That gave the audience a small laugh, and Nate smiled. “I can understand why that is confusing, but the thing is, we aren’t talking about just a local temperature, we’re talking about a world average or mean temperature. To put it in perspective, you know about the ice ages when much of Europe and the U.S. were covered by glaciers?”
Kay nodded.
“Do you know how much the world mean temperature had to drop to start an ice age? Four degrees centigrade. Just four degrees. Some scientists are now predicting an increase of three degrees. Some are predicting even more. If the mean temperature rises by even the most conservative estimate of three degrees, the effects will be disastrous worldwide.”
He turned and looked directly at me. “For instance, Mrs. Shimmerhorn, our Midwest will become too arid to produce crops. What would the folks in your area of Story City, Iowa, do if there was no rain for crops, and no crops to feed people and livestock? Across the world in Mali the people already face that plight. Since the 1970s an entire region of lakes has dried up, and people who were once self-reliant farmers and fishermen now face famine. Desertification is happening in dozens of places all over the globe, right now.”
I gave him no answer but sat in stunned silence. How did he do that? I was too far away for him to read my name tag. Had he memorized all the photos in the computer roster, or did he simply know exactly who I was? He held me in his gaze for a few seconds as a slight smile played on his lips. It might have been simple geniality, or it might have been a Cheshire cat, “gotcha.”
“Situations like the one in Mali are part of what your UN money goes for, David, part of where our excess grain goes. If our Midwest turns to dust and desert, the famine will become worldwide because our Midwest plains are the world’s bread basket.
“On the other hand, it could mean good news for Canada and Russia. As our latitudes are overheated and turn to dust, Canadian and Russian prairies may warm just enough to become the new producers of the world’s grain. That would certainly make a change in the world trade balance, wouldn’t it? It could even affect our position as numero uno.”
Consternation registered on David’s face as Nate scored a bull’s-eye. “David, the goal here is not to shut down oil wells or cattle ranches, but to devise plans for our nation’s continued prosperity. That means finding better answers than turning up the air conditioner.
“Kay, if the world mean temperature goes up three degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, your mean summer temperature in Tucson will be one hundred degrees. That is not your high, but your average. Your highs would fall between a hundred and thirty to a hundred and forty. How many of your seniors would survive that kind of heat? How far would your water and power stretch under those conditions?” Kay sat down heavily with no more comment.
“Sven, ever since 1999 heat and drought have contributed to horrific annual forest fires that have destroyed hundreds of thousands of acres of trees throughout the west. If the world continues to warm there will be great loss of temperate forests. That is not only tragic to loggers, nature lovers, and animal life, but it makes fewer trees to absorb less of the CO2 we dump into the air, which makes it hotter yet. The hotter it gets, the hotter it gets.
“Kyle, Mary Beth, both of you cover areas that have serious coastal erosion problems. There is now very frightening evidence that the great ice sheets of Antarctica and the arctic may be melting rapidly. The European Space agency is now warning of the collapse of the Wilkins ices shelf. As they melt and the ocean water warms and expands, the world’s mean ocean levels are rising. The optimists have been predicting six feet, the pessimists thirty feet. Now international climate scientists are beginning to think sea levels could rise three times t
hat of the official worst-case estimates. That could completely wipe out some small island nations. With the invading seas you can expect damage to our fresh water supplies, sewage facilities, and loss of our most expensive real estate. Even at that, we could be getting off light. At the end of the last ice age, world oceans rose three hundred feet. One can only guess at how many ancient coastal habitats are buried three hundred feet beneath the sea.”
He had more than caught their attention. He had touched each individual where he lived.
“How bad will it get? We don’t know. Could it all start cooling off again? Possibly, but not likely. David, you said this world has warmed and cooled many times. That’s true, but according to the Milankovitch solar radiations cycles, which you will learn more about this afternoon, we should be in the middle of a cooling trend right now. Instead, it’s getting hotter. Since Milankovitch’s formula has proven accurate throughout Earth’s history, this warming trend can only be explained by human impact on the world’s atmosphere. Our burning of fossil fuels has changed the world.
“So, how do we make plans? What do we do to protect our company and our insured against the possible hazards of global warming? Will your region of the country face more rain and flood, more hurricanes and tornados, or more drought, fire, and crop loss? That’s what we’ll discuss this afternoon in our regional sessions. Have a good lunch. See you at one o’clock.”
I gathered my belongings, joined the crowd heading for the diningroom, and was about to catch up with Sven when someone grabbed my arm. The grasp was firm enough to halt and hard enough to hurt. I turned, both startled and angered, and found myself looking into Nate’s face. There was a smile on his lips; however, his eyes were anything but friendly. “Diana, I believe we have a matter to discuss.”