The Future

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The Future Page 72

by Al Gore


  “Water, Water Everywhere,” China Economic Review, July 26, 2012.

  249 the switch from coal to natural gas by electric utilities

  Kevin Begos, “CO2 Emissions in US Drop to 20-Year Low,” Associated Press, August 17, 2012.

  250 Coal has the highest carbon content

  U.S. Energy Information Agency, “How Much Carbon Dioxide Is Produced When Different Fuels Are Burned?,” 2012, http://​www.​eia.​gov/​tools/​faqs/​faq.​cfm?​id=​73&​t=​11; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Air Emissions,” 2007, http://​www.​epa.​gov/​cleanenergy/​energy-​and-​you/​affect/​air-​emissions.​html.

  251 Harriman, Tennessee, in my home state four years ago

  Bobby Allyn, “TVA Held Responsible for Massive Coal Ash Spill,” Tennessean, August 23, 2012.

  252 principal source of human-caused mercury in the environment

  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Mercury: Basic Information,” February 7, 2012, http://​www.​epa.​gov/​hg/​about.​htm.

  253 include at least some amount of methyl-mercury

  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “What You Need To Know About Mercury in Fish and Shellfish,” June 20, 2012, http://​water.​epa.​gov/​scitech/​swguidance/​fishshellfish/​outreach/​advice_​index.​cfm#​isthere.

  254 cancellation of 166 new coal plants

  Mark Hertsgaard, “How a Grassroots Rebellion Won the Nation’s Biggest Climate Victory,” Mother Jones, April 2, 2012.

  255 1,200 new coal plants are now planned in 59 countries

  Ailun Yang and Yiyun Cui, Global Coal Risk Assessment: Data Analysis and Market Research (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 2012).

  256 65 percent in the next two decades

  International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook: Executive Summary,” 2011, http://​www.​world​energy​outlook.​org/​publications/​weo-​2011/.

  257 the CO2 emissions would continue destroying the Earth’s ecosystem

  Kurt Kleiner, “Coal to Gas: Part of a Low-Emissions Future?,” Nature, February 28, 2008.

  258 70 to 75 percent of the carbon in coal for each unit of energy produced

  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Air Emissions,” December 2007.

  259 more expensive to produce and carry even harsher impacts for the environment

  Bryan Walsh, “There Will Be Oil and That’s the Problem,” Time, March 29, 2012.

  260 three quarters of the amount in the atmosphere

  Rattan Lal, “Carbon Sequestration,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, February 2008.

  261 his successor has made policy changes that are reversing

  Jeffrey T. Lewis, “Pace of Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon Falls,” Wall Street Journal, November 28, 2012.

  262 dramatic “dieback” of the Amazon at mid-century

  Justin Gillis, “The Amazon Dieback Scenario,” New York Times, Green blog, October 7, 2011.

  263 Indonesia and Malaysia—in order to establish palm oil plantations

  Brad Plumer, “EPA Faces Crucial Climate Decision on Diesel Made from Palm Oil,” Washington Post, April 27, 2012.

  264 peatlands contain more than one third of all the global soil carbon

  Reynaldo Victoria et al., United Nations Environment Programme, “UNEP Yearbook: The Benefits of Soil Carbon,” 2012.

  265 80 percent of global forest cover is in publicly owned forests

  United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, “Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010,” 2010, p. xxiv, http://​www.​fao.​org/​forestry/​fra/​fra2010/​en/.

  266 Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Borneo, and the Philippines

  United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, “State of the World’s Forests 2011,” 2011, http://​www.​fao.​org/​docrep/​013/​i2000e/​i2000e00.​htm.

  267 especially cattle ranching

  Doug Boucher et al., Union of Concerned Scientists, “Solutions for Deforestation-Free Meat,” 2012, http://​www.​ucsusa.​org/​global_​warming/​solutions/​forest_​solutions/​solutions-​for-​deforestation-​free-​meat.​html.

  268 as much as 22 percent of all carbon stored

  Sharon Oosthoek, “Boreal Forests Ignored in Climate Change Fight,” CBC News, November 12, 2009, http://​www.​cbc.​ca/​news/​technology/​story/​2009/​11/​11/​boreal-​carbon-​climate-​change.​html.

  269 symbiosis between the larch and the tundra is thereby disrupted

  Douglas Fischer and Daily Climate, “Shift in Northern Forests Could Increase Global Warming,” Scientific American, March 28, 2011.

  270 reproducing three generations per summer rather than one

  Noah S. Diffenbaugh et al., “Global Warming Presents New Challenges for Maize Pest Management,” Environmental Research Letters 3 (2008).

  271 “unprecedented outbreak of the mountain pine beetle”

  David A. Gabel, “Expanding Forests in the Northern Latitudes,” Environmental News Network, March 23, 2011, http://​www.​enn.​com/​ecosystems/​article/​42501.

  272 “the real culprit is water stress caused by climate change”

  Justin Gillis, “With Deaths of Forests, a Loss of Key Climate Protectors,” New York Times, October 1, 2011.

  273 direct proportion to the rising temperatures

  “More Large Forest Fires Linked to Climate Change,” ScienceDaily, July 10, 2006, http://​www.​sciencedaily.​com/​releases/​2006/​07/​060710084004.​htm; Gillis, “With Deaths of Forests, a Loss of Key Climate Protectors.”

  274 in the trees and plants themselves

  Gillis, “With Deaths of Forests, a Loss of Key Climate Protectors.”

  275 rather than a net “sink,” withdrawing CO2 as the trees grow

  Ben Bond-Lamberty et al., “Fire as the Dominant Driver of Central Canadian Boreal Forest Carbon Balance,” Nature, November 1, 2007; “Wildfires Turning Northern Forests into Carbon-Dioxide Sources,” CBC News, October 31, 2007, http://​www.​cbc.​ca/​news/​technology/​story/​2007/​10/​31/​boreal-​forests.​html.

  276 eastern North America, Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia

  Gabel, “Expanding Forests in the Northern Latitudes.”

  277 $3.7 trillion in environmental costs

  Pavan Sukhdev et al., The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: Mainstreaming the Economics of Nature: A Synthesis of the Approach. Bonn: TEEB, 2010.

  278 40 percent as many trees as the rest of the world put together

  United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, “State of the World’s Forests 2009,” 2009, http://​www.​fao.​org/​docrep/​011/​i0350e/​i0350e00.​htm.

  279 required to plant at least three trees per year

  “China’s Hu Takes Part in Tree Planting,” UPI, April 5, 2009.

  280 approximately 100 million acres of new trees

  Gillis, “With Deaths of Forests, a Loss of Key Climate Protectors.”

  281 in trees include the U.S., India, Vietnam, and Spain

  United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, “State of the World’s Forests 2011.”

  282 compared to the rich variety supported by a healthy, multispecies primary forest

  Jianchu Xu, “China’s New Forests Aren’t as Green as They Seem,” Nature, September 21, 2011.

  283 carbon sequestered in the first few feet of soil

  Damian Carrington, “Desertification Is Greatest Threat to Planet, Expert Warns,” Guardian, December 15, 2010.

  284 10.57 percent of the Earth’s land surface covered by arable land

  CIA World Factbook, https://​www.​cia.​gov/​library/​publications/​the-​world-​factbook/​geos/​xx.​html

  285 health of the soil and interfere with the normal sequestration

  Tom Philpott, “New Research: Synthetic Nitrogen Destroys Soil Carbon, Undermines Soil Health,” Grist, February 24, 2010, http://​grist.
​org/​article/​2010-​02-​23-​new-​research-​synthetic-​nitrogen-​destroys-​soil-​carbon-​undermines/.

  286 by pushing subsistence farmers to clear more forests

  David Lapola et al., “Indirect Land-Use Changes Can Overcome Carbon Savings from Biofuels in Brazil,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, January 2010.

  287 have proven that assumption to be wrong

  Claude Mandil and Adnan Shihab-Eldin, International Energy Forum, “Assessment of Biofuels: Potential and Limitations,” February 2010, http://​www.​ief.​org/​news/​news-​details.​aspx?​nid=​311.

  288 20 to 50 percent of all living species on Earth within this century

  Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change.

  289 Approximately one third of all amphibian species

  Camila Ruz, “Amphibians Facing ‘Terrifying’ Rate of Extinction,” Guardian, November 2011.

  290 hit by a spreading fungal disease

  Michelle Nijhuis, “A Rise in Fungal Diseases Is Taking Growing Toll on Wildlife,” Yale Environment 360, October 24, 2011.

  291 the encroachment of human activities

  Owen Clyke, “The Militarization of Africa’s Animal Poachers,” Atlantic, July 31, 2012; David Braun, “Human Encroachment Threatens Thousands of Gorillas in African Swamp,” National Geographic, November 24, 2009; Yaa Ntiamoa-Baidu, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, “West African Wildlife: A Resource in Jeopardy,” 1998, http://​www.​fao.​org/​docrep/​s2850e/​s2850e05.​htm.

  292 caused by a large asteroid crashing into the Earth

  Anthony Barnosky et al., “Has the Earth’s Sixth Mass Extinction Already Arrived?,” Nature, March 2011.

  293 “precipitated entirely by man”

  Richard Leakey and Roger Lewin, The Sixth Extinction: Patterns of Life and the Future of Humankind (New York: Anchor Books, 1995), p. 235.

  294 average 3.8 miles per decade toward the poles

  Camille Parmesan and Gary Yohe, “A Globally Coherent Fingerprint of Climate Change Impacts Across Natural Systems,” Nature, January 2003.

  295 half of the mountain species had moved, on average

  Craig Moritz et al., “Impact of a Century of Climate Change on Small-Mammal Communities in Yosemite National Park, USA,” Science, October 2008.

  296 reach the poles and the mountaintops and can go no farther

  Elisabeth Rosenthal, “Climate Threatens Birds from Tropics to Mountaintops,” New York Times, January 21, 2011.

  297 at risk because they cannot adapt to climate change quickly enough

  Kai Zhu et al., “Failure to Migrate: Lack of Tree Range Expansion in Response to Climate Change,” Global Change Biology 18 (November 2011).

  298 according to scientists, are facing a rising risk of extinction

  Lucas Joppa et al., “How Many Species of Flowering Plants Are There?,” Proceedings of the Royal Society B, July 2010.

  299 United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity notes

  United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity, “Global Biodiversity Outlook 3,” January 2010, http://​www.​unep-​wcmc.​org/​gbo-​3_90.​html, p. 51.

  300 as a precautionary measure for the future of mankind

  John Roach, “ ‘Doomsday’ Vault Will End Crop Extinction, Expert Says,” National Geographic, December 27, 2007.

  301 carbon tax to the taxpayers but would have applied one third

  Matt Kasper, “Rep. Jim McDermott Introduces Carbon Tax Law,” August 6, 2012, ClimateProgress, http://​think​progress.​org/​climate/​2012/​08/​06/​641831/​rep-​jim-​mcdermott-​introduces-​carbon-​tax-​law/.

  302 go to carbon fuel companies

  John Broder, “Obama’s Bid to End Oil Subsidies Revives Debate,” New York Times, January 31, 2011.

  303 the dirtiest liquid fuel, kerosene, is heavily subsidized

  Narasimha Rao, “Kerosene Subsidies in India: When Energy Policy Fails as Social Policy,” Energy for Sustainable Development, March 2012.

  304 only a few years away from reaching that threshold

  Alex Morales and Jacqueline Simmons, “Renewables from Vestas to Suntech Plan Profit without Subsidy,” Bloomberg, January 26, 2012.

  305 utility sector oppose such measures

  Joe Romm, “Who Killed the Senate RPS?,” ClimateProgress, June 27, 2007, http://​think​progress.​org/​climate/​2007/​06/​27/​201573/​who-​killed-​the-​senate-​rps/.

  306 including, most prominently, California

  State of California, “California Renewables Portfolio Standard,” 2012, http://​www.​cpuc.​ca.​gov/​PUC/​energy/​Renewables/​index.​htm.

  307 install 500 megawatts of solar energy by 2020

  Dave Roberts, “Why Do ‘Experts’ Always Lowball Clean-Energy Projections?,” Grist, July 19, 2012, http://​grist.​org/​renewable-​energy/​experts-​in-​2000-​lowballed-​the-​crap-​out-​of-​renewable-​energy-​growth/.

  308 China installed double that amount by 2010

  Ibid.

  309 goal was exceeded 22-fold and is expected

  Ibid.

  310 “weren’t just off, they were way off”

  Ibid.

  311 alternative to government regulations mandating reductions

  John Fialka, “How a Republican Anti-Pollution Measure, Expanded by Democrats, Got Roots in Europe and China,” E&E News, November 17, 2011.

  312 originally supported the idea

  Ibid.

  313 energy during their own past periods

  International Energy Agency, “Energy Poverty,” 2012, http://​www.​iea.​org/​topics/​energypoverty/.

  314 even if it means that they too must shoulder

  Arthur Max, “Developing Nations Pledge Actions to Curb Climate Change,” Associated Press, March 22, 2011.

  315 costs from climate disruption will be borne by developing countries

  World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2010)

  316 world now exceed those in rich countries

  Alex Morales, “Renewable Power Trumps Fossils for First Time as UN Talks Stall,” Bloomberg News, November 25, 2011.

  317 more than half of the installed global renewable energy capacity

  Charles Kenny, “Greening It Alone,” Foreign Policy, August 1, 2011.

  318 hampered the ability of many communities

  Rick Jervis and Gregory Korte, “FEMA Could Run Out of Money over Stalemate,” USA Today, September 25, 2011.

  319 caused more than $15 billion in damage

  “Hurricane Irene 2011: One Year Anniversary of East Coast Storm,” Huffington Post, August 24, 2012, http://​www.​huffingtonpost.​com/​2012/​08/​24/​hurricane-​irene-​2011-​2012​_​n_​1826060.​html.

  320 and wildfires in 240 of its 242 counties

  Patrik Jonsson, “Texas Wildfire Chief: Wildfires Still Raging, but ‘We Are Making Successes,’ ” Christian Science Monitor, April 21, 2011.

  321 all-time-high temperature records were broken or tied

  Andrew Freedman, “Hot Summer of 2011 Rewrites Record Books,” Climate Central, September 8, 2011, http://​www.​climatecentral.​org/​blogs/​a-​record-​hot-​summer-​interactive-​map/.

  322 seven of them caused more than $1 billion in damage

  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Extreme Weather 2012,” January 19, 2012.

  323 more than half of the counties in the U.S.

  David Ariosto and Melissa Abbey, “Historical Drought Puts Over Half of US Counties in Disaster Zones, USDA Says,” CNN, August 1, 2012.

  324 Hurricane Sandy cost at least $71 billion

  Matthew Craft, “Hurricane Sandy’s Economic Damage Could Reach $50 Billion, Eqecat Estimates,” Associated Press, November 1, 2012.

  325 report supporting such border adjustments

  United Nations Environment Prog
ramme and World Trade Organization, Trade and Climate Change, 2009, http://​www.​wto.​org/​english/​res_e/​booksp_e/​trade_​climate_​change_e.​pdf.

  326 has been a success in most of the nations, provinces, and regions

  Janet Raloff, “Kyoto Climate Treaty’s Greenhouse ‘Success,’ ” ScienceNews, November 3, 2009, http://​www.​sciencenews.​org/​view/​generic/​id/​49058/​title/​Science_%2B​_the_​Public__​Kyoto_​climate_​treatys_​greenhouse_​success.

  327 “The carbon market may be complex, but we live in a complex world”

  Marton Kruppa and Andrew Allan, “Carbon Trading May Be Ready for Its Next Act,” Reuters, November 13, 2011.

  328 will imminently begin cap and trade systems

  Ibid.

  329 Most significantly, California began implementing its system in 2012

  Jason Dearen, “California’s Cap-and-Trade System to Launch with First Pollution Permits Auction,” Associated Press, November 12, 2012.

  330 “it may become the biggest in the world, and allowances in that system would then give a global price signal”

  Kruppa and Allan, “Carbon Trading May Be Ready for Its Next Act.”

  331 experience that will be used to implement a nationwide cap and trade system by 2015

  Lan Lan, “Beijing Preparing for Carbon Trading System,” China Daily, April 20, 2012.

  332 almost 20 percent of the Chinese population

  Alexandre Kossoy and Pierre Gioan, World Bank, “State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2012,” May 2012, p. 99, http://​sitere​sources.​worldbank.​org/​INTCARBONFINANCE/​Resources/​State_​and_​Trends_​2012_Web_​Optimized_​19035_​Cvr&Txt_​LR.​pdf.

  333 China for allegedly providing unfair subsidies to its wind and solar manufacturers

  Keith Bradsher, “200 Chinese Subsidies Violate Rules, US Says,” New York Times, October 6, 2011.

  334 European Union began its consideration of a similar complaint

  “US Imposes Import Tariffs on Chinese Solar Panels,” BBC News, May 17, 2012, http://​www.​bbc.​co.​uk/​news/​business-​18112983.

  335 overtake the United States as the largest global warming polluter

  Chris Buckley, “China Says Is World’s Top Greenhouse Gas Emitter,” Reuters, November 23, 2010.

  336 China against dirty energy projects are growing

 

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