by Bobby Akart
At the back of the room, a pretty young woman in her mid-twenties shot her hand up and began waving to get Ashby’s attention. Holding a notepad, she stood and began walking toward the middle of the auditorium. She walked with a noticeable limp as if her left leg were in a brace or somehow restrained.
The tradition at the annual symposium was to hold media questions until the presentation had ended because it was considered rude to interrupt the speaker. The room became silent as all eyes veered toward the woman.
“Dr. Donovan, might I ask a question?” the reporter said in a wonderfully British accent.
“Certainly. Your name, please?”
“Yes, of course. I am Ella Hewitt with BBC Earth. My question relates to Yellowstone.”
“Okay.”
“Or any volcanic eruption, for that matter. Are you saying the threat of a supervolcano eruption is greater than the NEO threat typically addressed at this symposium?”
Ashby hesitated, as she knew she was treading on thin ice already. “I believe it is fair to make the comparison. The eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano would be similar to the impact of an asteroid nearly a mile wide. Those among us who are well-versed in probability study will tell you that the chances of a supervolcanic eruption are five times more likely than a mile-wide asteroid crashing into Earth. I might also add, an asteroid of that size would most likely be seen well in advance. Now, what to do about it is another matter, but at least there would be warning of an incoming near-earth object.”
Ella continued forward, drawing the attention of all the attendees. “But, Dr. Donovan, as you’ve just mentioned, there are scientific measurements and monitoring devices available to give the public warning of a potential supervolcano eruption.”
Ashby closed her eyes momentarily and recalled riding in the backseat of her father’s car through the jungles of the Philippines. There were warning measures in place back then, too.
“Not necessarily, under the present circumstances, at least.”
The room burst into side conversations, whispering and chatter that eventually reached a crescendo.
Chapter 11
Ramo Auditorium
California Institute of Technology
Pasadena, California
In a politically and environmentally volatile world, scientists were careful not to go against the grain. Their funding was typically provided by governmental agencies or pro-environment private foundations who wanted results that comported with their ideology. To speak out against a politically sensitive topic could result in a loss of funding, being ostracized, and, worse, getting fired.
Ashby didn’t care about that. Nobody understood her perspective. So she went there.
“Can you expand on that?” asked Ella, who was now firmly planted near the front of the stage, barely thirty feet from Ashby.
Ashby explained, “In the past, the teams at the Yellowstone Volcanic Observatory have done a tremendous job of monitoring all aspects of the caldera. Seismometers, temperature gauges, GPS, satellites, and many other types of monitoring devices keep tabs on the vital signs of Yellowstone. As a result, predictability models can be created based upon the raw data.”
“How has that changed?” asked the persistent reporter.
“Oh, the devices haven’t changed, nor have the incredibly talented members of the YVO team. What’s changed is—”
Ashby paused momentarily, causing the attendees to whisper among themselves. She looked past the reporter and found Dusty and Rita at the rear of the auditorium. Rita was nodding her head, and Dusty slowly gave her a thumbs-up. They were fully aware her next words might affect their future as well.
“What has changed is the unpredictable results of tampering with the caldera,” she continued over the muted conversations occurring throughout the hall and from the scientists seated behind her.
“Are you referring to Project Hydro?” asked Ella.
“I am.” Ashby was impressed with the young lady’s familiarity with the topic.
The reporter continued. “You were a vocal opponent of the water-injection project. Now that it’s been under way for a couple of years without incident, why haven’t you changed your opinion?”
“Well, for starters, my point has been proven in many respects. The reports I’ve seen show the amount of geothermal energy is nowhere near the levels they’d hoped for, and that’s with their advanced drilling timetable. I stated that their plan to drill just six miles into the magma chamber was insufficient to yield the desired result.”
Ashby paused to look around the room and see if security was bearing down on her yet or to determine if the sound engineer intended to cut her microphone. She continued. “Their models were all wrong from the beginning. The projected geothermal yields were based upon drilling from the top of the caldera at a much steeper angle. When I, and others, strenuously objected on the basis of the potential damage to the crust, the proponents of Project Hydro altered their drilling plan. The problem is, they didn’t make a corresponding adjustment in the projected geothermal energy yield.”
Ella was frantically scribbling notes and took Ashby’s pause as an opportunity to ask a provocative question. “Are you saying, to use an American term, that your Congress was sold a bill of goods to get Project Hydro approved?”
“Those are your words, not mine. But I can’t disagree with the premise.”
“But isn’t it safe to say that a reduction in yield means a lower profit, if any, which equates to a substantial waste of your taxpayers’ money?”
Ashby smiled and studied the young woman closer. She was spot on with her analysis, so she decided to give her an honest opinion in response. “It’s difficult to answer that question without seeing all the data, which I hope, by the way, will be made available to me when I arrive in Yellowstone in the next few days. I can say this, however. If the geothermal yield is below what was represented in their models, that means the projected amount of stress they promised to release from the magma chamber is also below predictions. If that is the case, Project Hydro has put our planet at tremendous risk for little or no benefit.”
With that, control over the auditorium was lost, and the chairman of the advisory council intervened. He approached Ashby from behind and grabbed her by the elbow. He whispered in her ear, “Dr. Donovan, I think we’ve heard enough on this subject. Why don’t we change the topic and allow another member of the council to speak?”
“Fine.” Ashby pulled away from the man’s grip and shot him a nasty look. She returned to her seat, and for the remaining forty-five minutes of the symposium, she sat in deep thought, replaying her words, and then considered the ramifications of her statements. The minutes felt like hours until the conference was called to a close.
Ashby was immediately joined by Dusty and Rita on stage. After they congratulated her for her intestinal fortitude, Dusty suggested they quietly exit stage left and sneak out of the building via a fire exit.
Chapter 12
Ramo Auditorium
California Institute of Technology
Pasadena, California
“Fresh air! I was beginning to feel smothered in there,” said Ashby as she pointed her face toward the warm Southern California sunshine. The three of them walked at a steady pace, and just as they rounded the corner of the building toward the sidewalk, they were confronted by a gaggle of reporters.
“Dr. Donovan! Dr. Donovan! A couple of questions, please.”
Ashby was immediately swarmed and instinctively ducked as cameras and recording devices were shoved into her face. She pushed through the crowd, but her progress was stopped as the reporters held their ground.
“Dr. Donovan! Are you saying taxpayer dollars are being wasted on Project Hydro?”
“Have you voiced your concerns to the president?”
“Are the water injections putting us at risk?”
“When will Yellowstone blow its top?”
The questions were hitting her in all directi
ons as she spun in a circle, trying to consider which one to address first. Finally, Dusty put both of his index fingers in his mouth and whistled loudly, surprising the reporters and causing them to quieten down.
He whispered to Ashby, “Do you wanna answer their questions?”
Ashby was shaken but quickly regained her composure as the crowd quieted. “Sure, why not?”
“Okay, people,” Dusty shouted. “Dr. Donovan will be glad to answer your questions one at a time. If you start yelling again, we’ll leave. Got it?”
Ashby squeezed her protector’s shoulder in appreciation. Both she and Dusty took a deep breath, and just as she was about to speak, Dusty continued. “First off, let me introduce ourselves. This is Dr. Ashby Donovan. D-O-N-O-V-A-N. She is the foremost volcanologist in the world. I am Dusty Holder, a geologist, and this is Rita Charles, also a volcanologist.”
Rita, who hadn’t left Ashby’s side, whispered in her ear, “I hate him.”
Ashby smiled and was about to speak when she was interrupted by Dusty again.
“Okay,” he said cheerfully, smiling to the sea of stern faces in front of them. “Take it away, Doc.”
She hesitated, waiting to make sure Dusty was finished before she began. He gave her a smile and nodded before proudly taking a position behind her with his arms crossed but his eyes on any reporter that got out of line.
Ashby decided to clarify and soften her remarks from earlier. She hoped by doing so, she might save her job. She also noticed a crowd of attendees had gathered behind the reporters to see what she had to say. Arms stuck high in the air, undoubtedly filming every word for YouTube and other social media platforms.
“Before I answer your questions, let me state the basis for my concerns at Yellowstone. Seismicity and ground deformation are carefully monitored at Yellowstone. It isn’t unusual for the earth to shake and swell around the caldera. With a fire, you get smoke. With earthquakes, oftentimes, you get volcanic activity. Project Hydro has the potential to exacerbate earthquake activity in this already geologically fragile region. A region, frankly, that shouldn’t be disturbed.”
“Dr. Donovan, there are dozens of fault lines that traverse Yellowstone. There have been recent reports of increased earthquake activity near the Norris Geyser Basin. Are these reports the basis of your opinion?”
“In part, yes,” replied Ashby. “In the reporting, I’ve seen evidence of bulging as a result of earthquake swarms. Now, this could be normal activity, although the increased frequency and intensity could also be an indicator that magma is starting to move up or is spreading underneath the Earth’s surface to previously unknown locations.”
“Could the drilling by Project Hydro cause this?”
“Possibly, yes. That’s part of the reason we’re going to Yellowstone. I’d like to see the data for myself and conduct my own analysis.”
The young reporter from Great Britain, Ella Hewitt, pushed her way forward to continue her questioning from inside. “Isn’t it true that the ground uplift might be hydrothermal? Simply an uplift of water that is not necessarily out of the ordinary?”
Once again, Ashby was impressed. It was rare to be questioned by a member of the media who had advanced technical and scientific knowledge of volcanology. Typically, science reporters for major media sources covered a broad variety of subject matter, choosing to know just enough about the science to seem intelligent. This young woman was different.
Ashby decided to pump up her team. “Volcanology and geology is a lot of detective work. Talented individuals like Rita and Dusty undertake painstaking analysis in an attempt to uncover the biggest environmental threats to mankind. Pardon the cliché, but our goal in studying recent geologic events at Yellowstone is to leave no stone unturned.”
Ella continued the back-and-forth. “What about the current predictability models produced by the Yellowstone Volcanic Observatory, which conclude the activity at the Norris Geyser Basin is within accepted norms?”
“I want to reiterate something,” responded Ashby. “We’ve made great strides in recent decades with technological advances in forward modeling and forecasting regarding the Yellowstone Caldera, but none of that makes a difference in determining when the next eruption will be.”
The reporters were feverishly taking notes and pushing forward to get a better view of Ashby as she spoke.
“But—” began Ella before Ashby cut her off by holding up her right hand.
“Most of my colleagues are of the opinion that Yellowstone will provide us initial warning signs that an eruption is going to occur in the near future. Even the National Park Service tamps down fears by saying the buildup to a catastrophic eruption would be detectable for months or even years. Many scientists are of the opinion that the precursors have not yet begun.
“I disagree. For decades, seismic activity, ground uplift and subsidence, and gas releases have been occurring, which are telltale signs of a potential eruption. Couple that with the fact Yellowstone is arguably hundreds of thousands of years past due for a volcanic eruption, and the indicators of an eruption are becoming more prevalent.
“Let me make myself clear. I believe many catastrophic events, whether natural disasters or man-made occurrences, can be triggered by something out of the norm. All of our predictability models are based upon the science of Yellowstone as determined by an analysis of prior eruptions that occurred up to two million years ago.
“What the science does not take into account is man tampering with nature—a trigger out of the norm, as I just said, which, in this case, is Project Hydro.”
That caused the delicate truce reached between Dusty and the reporters to be cast aside. Once again, questions were being bombarded at the trio, but it didn’t matter. Ashby had said her piece, and now she’d let the chips fall where they may.
Then one final question was yelled at Ashby as they attempted to push past the crowd. “Dr. Donovan, how many people would be killed if the Yellowstone supervolcano were to erupt?”
Ashby paused and quickly turned to answer, “When.”
“Excuse me?” replied the reporter, who was somewhat confused.
“You asked if,” continued Ashby. “The question should be phrased when, not if. And the answer is—potentially all of us.”
Chapter 13
Hilton Hotel
Pasadena, California
Ella Hewitt’s head was still spinning from the whirlwind of excitement generated at the NASA Advisory Council on Planetary Defense Symposium. This was the first time the British Broadcasting Company had sent her to the event. In prior years, the BBC had relied upon wire reports from the Associated Press to generate a brief news article for their website. Today’s events would be worthy of far more than a cursory mention on the BBC Earth tab of the website. It might not make the on-air broadcast, but it should be prominently featured on the news homepage.
After downing a bottle of the Hilton Hotel’s complimentary water, Ella quickly peeled off the pantsuit she’d worn for the symposium. The temperatures in Pasadena were in the low nineties, which was unseasonably warm for early June. She preferred to wear more casual clothing when lounging around the hotel room and writing her story.
She’d gone to the mall the day before in nearby Arcadia to visit her favorite American store, Hollister, a lifestyle brand that catered to young adults. The store resembled an upscale surf shop, complete with a variety of tees, shorts, and hoodies. If it were up to Ella, she’d wear shorts every day despite living with a prosthetic leg her entire life. She’d overcome any self-inflicted stigma many years ago as a child.
Ella had been born with Amelia, a birth defect that results in a child lacking one or more limbs. Ella’s parents were informed of the Amelia diagnosis during a routine prenatal ultrasonography. Initially, the doctors warned her parents that Amelia might be isolated, or on rare occasions, associated with major malformations in the unborn baby’s organ systems. Outward instances of cleft palate and malformed head were possible. Int
ernally, lack of a kidney, a herniated diaphragm, and a weakened body wall could result in organs protruding through the abdomen.
After this shocking prognosis, her parents made regular visits to their physicians to monitor their unborn child’s progress. As time passed, the medical staff presented them with the harsh reality that the twenty-four-week deadline for terminating a pregnancy grew closer.
Her parents were filled with anguish when given this stark option, but deep down they knew they would love their new baby regardless of the challenges they would face as a family.
When Ella was born, relief overcame her parents and the medical team who’d helped them through the pregnancy. She was healthy in every aspect, and she was absolutely the bee’s knees, as her father said when he laid eyes on her.
Ella was cute and smart too. She excelled in her classes during her childhood years, especially in her science studies. As she grew older, the science of prosthetic devices advanced. She worked with her prosthetist to get mentally prepared for life without a left leg. It was frustrating at first, as she was teased by other children or stared at when shopping with her parents.
By the time she entered the London School of Journalism, she’d learned her limitations, found activities she could enjoy, and even learned how to have relationships with guys who wanted to date her for the beautiful young adult she’d become, and not judge her on the disadvantage she’d been born with.
For Ella, one of the benefits of being born with a disadvantage was it gave her an inner drive to succeed and overcome all obstacles. She’d met other kids who were born without limbs and had interacted with adults as she visited her prosthetist on a regular basis. Some afflicted with Amelia couldn’t adopt a mindset to cope with their lives. Ella was just the opposite. She thrived on it, sometimes pushing herself too hard.