Stilwell nodded. “So what happens to Russia now?” he asked. “The Tsar’s abdication was too late to save the dynasty, and there’s nobody really in charge there now.”
“I think Russia is off the board as a Great Power for the next ten years at least,” said Swing. “No matter who wins the civil war, the country has lost too much to recover anytime in the next few years. Over in Cracow I met an observer from the British Foreign Office, a real sharp cookie named Toynbee. He was a doing report for the Foreign Minister on the impact of the war on Russia. He estimated that under the Treaty of Cracow, Russian lost 25 percent of its population, 25 percent of its industry, 90 percent of its coalmines, and more than half of their railroad mileage. He had a lot more numbers, but the point is that Russia will be crippled for a long time to come.”
“What worries me is how strong Germany is going to be when they finish digesting their new acquisitions and integrate them into the Empire,” Stilwell said. “They’re already plenty strong enough to suit me.” His gaze shifted back to Swing. “But enough about that. Tell me what you’ve been up to. Did you interview that old fraud, Bryan? Did you meet Woodenhead Wilson?”
Swing brayed out a laugh so loud that a number of the occupants of the room ceased their conversations to momentarily glance over at the reporter.
“Christ, Joe, don’t say that to anybody else around here!” Swing finally said, after he had recovered the power of speech. “It’ll be the end of your career. It’s not a very appropriate nickname, anyway. Wilson’s probably one of the most intelligent Presidents we’ve ever had.” He stifled another laugh, then continued, “To answer your questions, I saw President Wilson at a news conference, but was not introduced to him. I did have a long interview with Secretary Bryan yesterday. He was very pleasant, like a kindly old uncle. I’m pretty well convinced that he really is motivated by a sincere desire for peace.”
“Maybe,” grunted Stilwell. “So why is it that whenever I see him, I think of the Wizard of Oz?”
Swing chuckled. “Come to think of it, he does have more than a passing resemblance to the pictures of the old humbug in the book. Do you suppose Baum based the Wizard on our distinguished Secretary of State?”
Stilwell’s lips curled in a thin smile. “Why don’t you write Baum a letter and ask him?”
“But getting back to the matters at hand," he continued, "I’d like to hear your ideas on exactly why Kaiser Willy agreed to arbitrate instead of just flattening the French and doing to them what he did to the Russians. I have a few thoughts on it myself, and I’m wondering how they’ll stack up with yours.”
Swing rubbed his chin thoughtfully. “Well, I’m just speculating, but here’s what I think. The Kaiser already had France’s surrender. The Germans could beat down the French the hard way, by a direct attack out of Alsace-Lorraine. It would be bloody, but with their big siege guns, their big numbers, and persistence, they would eventually crack the Verdun-Toul fortress line, force a showdown with the French Army and crush it, if they didn’t mind paying the price. But what would he do with it then? Put it under permanent military occupation? Annex it to Germany?”
Stilwell shook his head. “Not practical. How many men would he need to garrison France? And how long before the uprisings started, before the franc-tireurs were assassinating German officers and officials of the occupation?”
“Agreed,” said Swing. “So, if they don’t want to occupy France, why bother to shed all that blood to conquer it? Once they knocked the Russians out, the Germans knew they had won the game. It was just a matter of sweeping the chips off the table. By letting Wilson and Bryan arbitrate, the Kaiser will look more reasonable, the French will be more likely to accept the treaty, and the war will be over that much sooner.”
“After that, they can concentrate on absorbing all their land grabs in the East,” Stilwell said. “I think that’s about right. I figure this is not going to be a very long peace conference. The Germans will offer terms that the Frogs will be in no position to turn down, and you’ll be filing your story on the signing ceremony before Labor Day.”
The double doors of the main entrance swung open, and they saw two familiar silhouettes in the bright sunlight for a few moments. They were closely followed by a gaggle of top-hatted diplomats, politicians, reporters and assorted hangers-on.
Stilwell rose. “I see that Professor Woodenhead and the Great and Powerful Oz have arrived, so I guess we both have to get back to work,” he said.
Grinning, Swing stood as well. Together, they followed the Presidential party into the auditorium.
CHICAGO DAILY NEWS
August 28, 1916
One Year After The Great European War:
Europe and the World on the Anniversary of the Treaty of Bryn Mawr
by Senior Foreign Correspondent Ray Swing
…For France, the war was a mitigated disaster. The German terms were unexpectedly mild: the transfer to Germany of three French colonies; Martinique, New Caledonia and Morocco. There were no demands for indemnities, or for any concessions of territory from the French homeland by Germany. Above all, the Treaty of Bryn Mawr allowed France to escape a fate that had looked to be inevitable once Russia had been forced out of the war: a repeat of occupation of the homeland by the hated boches, like the one that had followed defeat of Napoleon III in 1871.
In almost every other respect, however, the Great European War has proved to be a disaster for France.
France’s colonial empire was gutted by the war. In addition to the three colonies lost to Germany under the Treaty of Bryn Mawr, France’s largest Asian possession was lopped off as well. Indochina was occupied by Japan in 1915, and then later annexed to the Japanese Empire.
The French Army shown itself to be unimpressive in combat against Germany. In particular, the artillery had proved to be far too light for modern warfare. Imprudent military leadership was another element in the disaster. The succession of reckless attacks against strongly prepared German positions resulted in the loss of over a half-million men. The naval picture is even worse. The French fleet was effectively obliterated in February 1915 at the Battle of Cape Cepet. Although France is now engaged in a massive naval program, it will be years before she regains her status as a naval power.
The current government in Paris won its position in reaction to the loss of the war. When the terms of the Treaty of Bryn Mawr were published, the French populace, who had been told that they were winning the war, was outraged. Public anger was directed more at the government that had presided over the calamity than at the Germans, and a coalition of Nationalists was swept into power in the elections of October of last year. The new Premier, George Clemenceau, emerged from retirement to take office on a platform of military and naval rearmament and a pledge to aggressively seek powerful new allies abroad.
But, today, one year after the official end of the war, France stands in diplomatic isolation. Her former ally, Russia, after undergoing dismemberment by Germany and with civil war now raging in what remains, is in chaos. When, if ever, Russia will regain Great Power status is uncertain, but at this time there is no power in Eastern Europe available for France to cultivate as a potential ally and counterweight to Germany. Great Britain’s reaction to the war was to back further away from any commitment to France.
…By far the biggest change in the European scene from just two years ago has been the vast growth in the German Empire. Added to Germany, either by direct appropriation or as thinly disguised puppet states, is a vast new territory comprising most of Russian Poland and the Ukraine, Belorussia, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. These new lands contain more than 50 million inhabitants and most of what had been the best farmland in Russia. Included in this new territory are practically all the Russian coalmines and a least a quarter of all pre-war Russian industry…
The performance of the German Army in the war has given it a well-deserved reputation as the best in the world. In contrast to the French Army, the Germans were prepared for
the war on every level. The General Staff under Field Marshall von Moltke produced a miracle of improvisation in the decisive Battles of East Prussia, and repeatedly out-planned and out-fought the larger Russian Army. At the tactical level, German weapons, training and organisation showed themselves to be at least the equal of any in the world today. German artillery proved to be the decisive arm in combat, repeatedly destroying Russian defensive positions, and allowing the infantry to break through them again and again.
Germany had never been thought of as a sea power before 1914. Today, that has changed. The Imperial German Navy, built to challenge the Royal Navy, proved its worth against the French. Thanks to new overseas bases in newly acquired colonies in the Pacific and the Caribbean, Germany is well positioned to project its naval power into the world’s oceans.
Germany is now in a position of dominance over Europe unmatched by any nation since the height of the Napoleonic Empire. Her alliance with the only remaining central European Great Power, Austria-Hungary, is stronger than ever before. Nowhere is there a rival alliance capable of challenging the German-led combination, and there is no sign of one on the horizon. Whether new plans for expansion are being considered in Berlin today is unknown, but it is likely that at some time in the not very distant future, they will be.
…It is the opinion of this reporter that the government of the United States should begin to consider the danger posed by a greatly expanded, aggressive German Empire. It is not too early for our country to put aside its traditional policy of isolation and begin to seek alliances with other peaceful nations for the purpose of restraining Germany. The risk of being drawn into a war by such alliances is a real one, but that risk should weighed against the danger of being alone and friendless in the face of the greatest military power in history.
THE END
Afterword 1: COUNTERFACTUALLY SPEAKING
A short essay on the Great War, alternative history (also called “alternate history”), and related matters
Alternative history, sometimes called “counterfactual history” has recently enjoyed greater interest in academic circles. The importance of an historical event can be measured by imagining what would happen if it had occurred differently, and then examining the ways in which subsequent events would have been altered. I believe that the triggering event selected should meet two essential requirements. First, the event should be pivotal to subsequent history. Second, there must be a realistic chance that the event could have actually happened in the “alternative” way.
The history of the Great War (later called the First World War) is not very well known in America, so let me first provide a summary of the major events of the First World War:
The war in the West commences with the German invasion of Belgium on August 3, 1914. Great Britain, invoking its obligations under the Treaty of London, declares war on Germany on August 4. The French counter the German invasion with Plan XVII, launching most of their armies into offensives in Alsace and Lorraine. These attacks accomplish nothing, and cost France a quarter-million casualties.
The overextended German right wing is defeated at the Battle of the Marne on September 5, and the war in the West soon settles into a deadlock, with lines of trenches stretching across northern France from the English Channel to the Swiss border. Great Britain, which initially contributes only a small professional army of fewer than 250,000 men, now begins to raise a mass army taken from all parts of the Empire. By 1918, the British Army will number more than 4 million men.
The day Great Britain enters the war, the Royal Navy imposes a blockade on Germany. The blockade continues until after the end of the war, and by 1918 is causing serious food shortages in Germany. The German main battle fleet remains penned up in its ports for most of the war, coming out to offer battle only once, in 1916. The resulting Battle of Jutland is inconclusive, but the blockade remains in place and the German High Seas Fleet remains in port for the rest of the war.
To counter the British blockade, Germany employs a relatively new weapon: the submarine. The Kaiser declares the waters around the British Isles to be a war zone, and his submarines begin to sink any ship that enters it, including neutral vessels. By 1917, submarines have sunk several passenger liners carrying Americans and dozens of American ships. Unrestricted submarine warfare fails to starve out Great Britain, and proves to be the major reason that the United States declares war on Germany in 1917.
In the East, the only half-ready Russian First and Second Armies invade East Prussia at the beginning of August. Although outnumbered at least 4 to 1, the German Eighth Army smashes and nearly destroys the Russian Second Army at the Battle of Tannenburg, then defeats the Russian First Army at the Battle of the Masurian Lakes, so that by the end of August, the initial Russian offensive has been thrown back. The Russians are more successful on the southern half of the front against Austria-Hungary, defeating Emperor Franz-Joseph’s armies in early battles, and occupying Austrian territory.
While stalemate continues in the West until 1918, in the East, German armies under Generals Hindenburg and Ludendorff, heroes of the Battle of Tannenburg, defeat the Russians again and again. By 1917, the economy of Russia, strained to the limits to supply munitions for the army, is collapsing, and the morale of the army is crumbling. The Tsar is overthrown in March, replaced by a Provisional Government that continues to prosecute the war. But by now, many of the soldiers are sick of the war and refuse to fight. In November, the Provisional Government is overthrown in turn by the Bolsheviks led by Lenin, who has been sent into Russia by the Germans in the hopes that he will sow revolution there. In March 1918, the Bolshevik government is forced to sign the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, surrendering huge areas of Russia to the German Empire. The Russian Civil War continues until 1922, ending with a Bolshevik victory.
In France, both sides attempt to break the trench deadlock with head-on attacks, which are repeatedly and bloodily defeated. At the Somme in 1916, the British lose 60,000 men on the first day, and over 600,000 in total to gain nothing. The same year, at Verdun, the French and Germans fight for nine months and suffer nearly a million men killed altogether. There is, by the end, no significant change in the trench lines.
By 1917, the contestants are beginning to run out of men. In 1918, Ludendorff, who by now is the virtual dictator of Germany, makes a final effort to win the war by bringing 50 divisions to France from the now quiet Eastern Front. With this additional manpower and new weapons and tactics, he hopes to break through at last, and destroy the Allied armies before the United States can bring in enough new men to tip the balance of the war against Germany. The Ludendorff Offensives of 1918 do break through the Allied lines at several points, but the Allies simply retreat, shorten their defensive lines and, with American troops patching some of the holes, eventually stop the German advance without being annihilated. After the failure of the Ludendorff Offensives and the heavy losses they cause the attackers to sustain, the German Army becomes gradually weaker. A series of Allied offensives, beefed up by the presence of a fresh American Army (the United States would commit 4.7 million men by the war’s end) recapture all the lost territory. By November, the German Army is near collapse. So too is the German Empire’s economy, as a result of the blockade. Bad news from the front, starvation and war weariness lead to revolution in the streets. The Kaiser is forced to abdicate, and a new civilian government asks for an armistice.
The Austro-Hungarian Empire, considered by many to be on the verge of disintegration even before 1914, has surprisingly survived four years of war. It has done so only by becoming virtually a German dependency. No longer propped up by Germany, the Austrian Army stops fighting when the Italians attack in October 1918 at the Battle of Vittorio Veneto. (Italy had been bribed to join the Entente in 1915, with promises that she would be rewarded with the Austrian Trentino and Fiume after the war.) The Austro-Hungarian Empire now disappears from the map to be replaced by the new independent republics of Czechoslovakia, Poland, Yugoslavia, Austria a
nd Hungary.
Grey Tide in the East branches off from the above history in Chapter One, when General Helmuth von Moltke, Chief of the Imperial General Staff of Germany commits an act of near lese-majesty, prompting the Kaiser to cancel the invasion of Belgium. Up to that point, the story follows actual events. Wilhelm did order the invasion stopped on August 1, using the note from Ambassador Lichnowski described in the text as the reason. The conversation between the Kaiser and his general is based on Moltke’s memoirs, and cited in Barbara Tuchman’s incomparable account of the opening days of the war, The Guns of August (New York, 1962), p. 79. (If you have the slightest interest in the Great War and have not read this book, I urge you to do so.) Wilhelm’s hasty decision is the triggering event this story explores.
My thesis is that if the Kaiser had not reversed his decision to abandon the invasion of Belgium, the Triple Alliance would have won the war. My reasoning is as follows: without the invasion of Belgium to provide a causus belli, Great Britain would not have entered the war in 1914. The Asquith Government was lukewarm towards France at best, and the Liberal majority in Parliament was dead set against being drawn in to the Continental war. Evidence in support of this proposition comes from the diaries and memoirs of Prime Minister Asquith, Sir Edward Grey, Ambassador Paul Cambon and others, as cited in The Guns of August, especially p.77-81 (Grey’s “offer” to Lichnowski), and p.94-97 (regarding the position of H.M. Government, the country’s unwillingness to enter the war and Ambassador Cambon’s protestations to Grey.)
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