To be sure, the quota: “U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, October 31, 2016, www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=A.
While their stated objective at the time: For more, see Daniel Yergin, “OPEC and the Surge Pot,” in The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power (New York: Free Press, 2008), 502–5.
Instead, because there were: Tim Worstall, “The Economic Effects of Lifting the Crude Export Ban: WTI/Brent Spread Disappears,” Forbes, December 28, 2015, https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/12/28/the-economic-effects-of-lifting-the-crude-export-ban-wtibrent-spread-disappears/#5733db8946a3; “WTI-Brent Crude Oil Price Spread has Reached Unseen Levels,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, February 28, 2011, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=290.
John Hess, CEO of: John Hess, “The Oil Export Ban: A Relic of the 1970s,” Wall Street Journal, April 24, 2015, www.wsj.com/articles/the-oil-export-ban-a-relic-of-the-1970s-1429913717.
Scholars and institutes from across: See, for example, Charles K. Ebinger and Heather L. Greenley, “Lifting the U.S. ban on crude oil exports: Let’s use data over ideology,” Brookings, September 16, 2015, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/planetpolicy/2015/09/16/lifting-the-u-s-ban-on-crude-oil-exports-lets-use-data-over-ideology/; “Effects of Lifting the Crude Oil Export Ban,” Bipartisan Policy Center, https://bipartisanpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/BPC-Energy-Crude-Oil-Export-Ban-Gas-Prices.pdf; Nicolas Loris, “Time to Lift the Ban on Crude Oil Exports,” The Heritage Foundation, May 15, 2014, http://www.heritage.org/environment/report/time-lift-the-ban-crude-oil-exports; Jason Bordoff and Trevor Houser, “Navigating the U.S. Oil Export Debate,” Center on Global Energy Policy, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY, January 2015, http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/energy/Navigating%20the%20US%20Oil%20Export%20Debate_January%202015.pdf.
If one standardizes all energy sources: The U.S. EIA could see the United States becoming a net exporter of energy as early as 2026. BP’s Energy Outlook forecasts that the United States could reach this status in 2023. See “Table: Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary,” Annual Energy Outlook 2017, U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=1-AEO2017®ion=0-0&cases=ref2017&start=2015&end=2050&f=A&linechart=ref2017-d120816a.19-1-AEO2017~ref2017-d120816a.25-1-AEO2017&ctype=linechart&sourcekey=0; “Country Insights: US,” BP Global, 2017, http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/country-and-regional-insights/us-insights.html.
The United States would likely export: “U.S. Energy Imports and Exports to Come into Balance for the First Time Since 1950s,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, April 15, 2015, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20812.
Various companies and agencies differ: According to the IEA, if remaining recoverable reserves are larger than currently estimated in its default scenario, the United States could become a net exporter of oil by the early 2030s. BP’s Energy Outlook’s main case forecasts that the United States will be a net exporter of oil by 2035. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2016 (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2016), 134; BP p.l.c., BP Energy Outlook 2035: January 2017 (London: BP, 2016), http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/excel/energy-economics/energy-outlook-2017/bp-energy-outlook-2017-summary-tables.xlsx.
In the words of a March 14: “When Is a Bargain Not a Bargain,” New York Times, March 14, 1909, http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?res=9A03E4D8173EE033A25757C1A9659C946897D6CF.
In its heyday as: In 2004, Mexico was producing 3.8 mnb/d of oil per day and 1.5 tcf of gas annually. “Gross Natural Gas Production—Mexico,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/#?iso=MEX&c=0000000000000000000000000001&ct=0&cy=2013&start=1980&end=2013&ord=SA&v=T&vo=0&so=0&io=0&vs=INTL.3-1-MEX-BCF.A&pin=p&pa=g1q&f=A&ug=g&tl_type=a&tl_id=1-A. “Total Petroleum and Other Liquids Production—Mexico,” U.S. Energy Information Administration: Beta, https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/#/?pa=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&c=0000000000000000000000000001&ct=0&tl_id=5-A&vs=INTL.53-1-MEX-TBPD.A&cy=2014&vo=0&v=T&start=1980&end=2016.
Despite Mexico’s large oil reserves: “Unfixable Pemex,” Economist, August 10, 2013, www.economist.com/news/business/21583253-even-if-government-plucks-up-courage-reform-it-pemex-will-be-hard-fix-unfixable. From 2005 to 2013, crude oil production declined by 25 percent. “Production of Crude Oil Including Lease Condensate 2015,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2015, www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=57&aid=1&cid=r1,&syid=2005&eyid=2013&unit=TBPD.
Petróleos Mexicanos, or PEMEX: “Unfixable Pemex,” Economist, August 15, 2013.
Over the course of: Production dropped from 3.8 mnb/d of oil in 2004 to 3 mnb/d of oil in 2009. “Total Petroleum and Other Liquids Production—Mexico,” U.S. Energy Information Administration: Beta, https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/#/?pa=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&c=0000000000000000000000000001&ct=0&tl_id=5-A&vs=INTL.53-1-MEX-TBPD.A&cy=2014&vo=0&v=T&start=1980&end=2016.
A year before President: Kenneth B. Medlock III and Ronald Soligo, “Scenarios for Oil Supply, Demand and Net Exports for Mexico,” paper prepared for the study, “The Future of Oil in Mexico/El Futuro del Sector Petrolero en México,” James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, and The Mexican Studies Programme, Nuffield College, Oxford University, April 29, 2011, http://bakerinstitute.org/media/files/Research/f1a1ca0e/EF-pub-MedlockSoligoScenarios-04292011.pdf.
Galloping domestic use of oil: Mexican demand for oil more than quadrupled between 1971 and 2010. Rice University, “Mexico Could Become Oil Importer by 2020 Without New Investment,” Science Daily, April 29, 2011, www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/04/110429095117.htm.
Notwithstanding its significant: The composition of Mexican LNG imports has changed over time, with Egypt fading as a supplier and Peru and others entering the fray. “Mexico Week: Record Mexican Natural Gas Imports Include Higher Flows from U.S.,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, May 16, 2013, www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=11291.
initial surveys, Mexico: Mexico is believed to hold the tenth largest unconventional oil reserves, amounting to 3 percent of global shale oil and the sixth largest shale gas reserves amounting to 7 percent of shale gas in the world. “World Shale Resource Assessments,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 24, 2015, www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/.
Instead of the vague language: Mexican constitutional reforms require a two-thirds majority vote in Congress and the approval of the majority of the legislatures in Mexican states.
The electricity sector was also reformed: Jude Webber, “Electricity Reform: What Mexico Deserves,” Financial Times, February 24, 2015, http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2015/02/24/electricity-reform-what-mexico-deserves/.
Neither the discovery of a snake: “Snake on the Loose Fails to Keep Deputies from Energy Laws,” Mexico News Daily, August 2, 2014, http://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/snake-loose-fails-keep-deputies-approving-energy-laws/; “Mexican Congress Approves Controversial Oil and Gas Bill,” BBC News, December 13, 2013, www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-25350993.
ExxonMobil, Statoil, Chevron: See Adrián Lajous, “Mexico’s Deepwater Auctions,” Center on Global Energy Policy, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY, January 9, 2017, http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/energy/CGEP_Mexico%E2%80%99s%20Deepwater%20Auctions_Lajous.pdf.
The U.S. EIA suggested that: Shortly after the reforms were enacted, projections were very optimistic. For example, in 2014, the EIA anticipated that Mexican oil production could increase by as much as 75 percent by 2040. Since that time, the optimism has been tempered, although agencies still anticipate considerable production increases by 2040. See “Energy Reform Could Increase Mexico’s Long-Term Oil Production by 75%,” U.S. Energy In
formation Administration, August 25, 2014, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=17691. Also see “AEO2017: International Liquids: Production: Non-OPEC OECD: Mexico and Chile,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2017, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=19-AEO2017®ion=0-0&cases=ref2017&start=2015&end=2050&f=A&linechart=ref2017-d120816a.46-19-AEO2017&ctype=linechart&sid=ref2017-d120816a.46-19-AEO2017&sourcekey=0; International Energy Agency, Mexico Energy Outlook: World Energy Outlook Special Report (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2016), 66, https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/MexicoEnergyOutlook.pdf.
Mexican natural gas production: International Energy Agency, Mexico Energy Outlook: World Energy Outlook Special Report (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2016), 69, https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/MexicoEnergyOutlook.pdf.
Yet, even with such uncertainties: The IEA projects that Mexican production will hit its nadir below 2 mnb/d around 2020 and then begin to increase as reforms “bear fruit.” By 2040, Mexico could be producing 2.4 mnb/d of crude oil, or 3.4 mnb/d of crude and natural gas liquids. International Energy Agency, Mexico Energy Outlook: World Energy Outlook Special Report (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2016), 11, www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/MexicoEnergyOutlook.pdf.
A Lemonade Stand With One Customer: Elizabeth McSheffrey, “Canadian Oil Lobbyists Fear Running a Lemonade Stand with Only One Customer,” National Observer, June 7, 2016, http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/06/07/news/canadian-oil-lobbyists-fear-running-lemonade-stand-only-one-customer.
Between 1980 and 2014: “Total Petroleum and Other Liquids Production 2014,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/#/?pa=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&c=0000001&ct=0&tl_id=5-A&vs=INTL.53-1-CAN-TBPD.A&cy=2014&vo=0&v=H&start=1980&end=2016; International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2016, 136.
Dating advice columns urged: Tenille Bonoguore, “Still Single? Time to Move West,” Globe and Mail, April 3, 2009, www.theglobeandmail.com/life/still-single-time-to-move-west/article1078717/.
Demand for housing skyrocketed: Paul Haavardsrud, “Calgary House Prices: Nothing Stays Up Forever,” CBC News, September 15, 2015, http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/calgary-house-prices-nothing-stays-up-forever-1.3226602.
Calgary’s annual Stampede festival: Bill Kaufmann, “Calgary Stampede Ends on a High with Second-Highest Attendance on Record,” Calgary Sun, July 14, 2014, www.calgarysun.com/2014/07/14/calgary-stampede-ends-on-a-high-with-second-highest-attendance-on-record.
A Canadian trade group: “Facts and Statistics,” Alberta Energy, 2017, www.energy.alberta.ca/oilsands/791.asp; Jeff Gerth, “Canada Builds a Large Oil Estimate on Sand,” New York Times, June 18, 2003, www.nytimes.com/2003/06/18/business/canada-builds-a-large-oil-estimate-on-sand.html; “Crude Oil Proved Reserves 2016,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2016, www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=57&aid=6&cid=regions&syid=2000&eyid=2015&unit=BB.
Several years later, after: These new definitions became effective on January 1, 2010. Charles Kraus and Kristi Kasper, “Top Five Things Canadian Issuers Need to Know About the SEC’s New Oil and Gas Reporting Requirements,” Stikeman Elliott, February 11, 2009, www.stikeman.com/cps/rde/xchg/se-en/hs.xsl/12187.htm.
As long as the price: For a wider range of possible breakeven prices for Canadian oil sands, see J. Peter Findlay, “The Future of the Canadian Oil Sands” (OIES Paper: WPM 64, The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, University of Oxford, Oxford, U.K., February 2016), 35–36, https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/The-Future-of-the-Canadian-Oil-Sands-WPM-64.pdf.
As of June 2016: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), 2016 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Transportation (Calgary, Alberta: CAPP, June 2016), 3–4, www.documentcloud.org/documents/3679754-2016-CAPP-Crude-Oil-Forecast-Markets.html. The U.S EIA and IEA also anticipate similar modest growth. See International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2016, 136; “Petroleum and Other Liquids Production,” International Energy Outlook 2016, U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=38-IEO2016®ion=0-0&cases=Reference&start=2010&end=2040&f=A&linechart=Reference-d021916a.1-38-IEO2016~Reference-d021916a.10-38-IEO2016&ctype=linechart&sourcekey=0.
America’s shale gas bonanza: See Robert Tuttle and Dan Murtaugh, “Shale Oil Growth in U.S. Hurts Canadians as Well as OPEC,” Bloomberg, January 20, 2015, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-21/shale-oil-growth-in-u-s-hurts-canadians-as-well-as-opec.
Nearly three-quarters of Canada’s: To be exact, 73 percent of Canada’s oil production and 47 percent of its gas production was imported by the United States in 2016. Calculations derived from “2016 Oil Exports Statistics Summary,” National Energy Board, www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/sttstc/crdlndptr/mpdct/stt/crd/smmr/2016/smmry2016-eng.html; “2016 Natural Gas Exports and Imports Summary,” National Energy Board, www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/sttstc/ntrlgs/rprt/ntrlgssmmr/2016/smmry2016-eng.html. Joint Organizations Data Initiative, www.jodidb.org/ReportFolders/reportFolders.aspx?sCS_referer=&sCS_ChosenLang-en.
Having no other outlet: From 2006 to 2014 Canada’s natural gas production declined by approximately 20 percent. “Gross Natural Gas Production 2014,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2014, https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/index.cfm#/?pa=g0q&c=0000001&ct=0&tl_id=3002-A&vs=INTL.3-1-CAN-BCF.A&vo=0&v=H&start=2007&end=2014.
As of 2016, Canada: Christopher Adams, “Here are the Major Canadian Pipelines the Oil Patch Wants Built,” National Observer, September 22, 2016, http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/09/22/analysis/here-are-major-canadian-pipelines-oil-patch-wants-built; Tracy Johnson, “LNG Exports Begin from U.S. as Canada Sits on Sidelines,” CBC News, February 25, 2016, www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/will-lng-in-canada-happen-1.3463008.
North America as a whole: “Geopolitical Implications of North American Energy Independence,” Global Horizons Service—Risks & Uncertainties Insight, Wood Mackenzie, September 2013, www.woodmacresearch.com/content/portal/energy/highlights/wk4__13/Wood_Mackenzie_Report_Geopolitical_implications_of_North_American_energy_independence.pdf.
Indeed, the United States: This assessment is derived from data found at U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2017, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo;“NaturalGasConsumption: OECD: OECD Americas,” International Energy Outlook 2016, U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo.
One recent indication: The capacity of the Keystone XL Pipeline was 830,000 barrels per day, although 100,000 barrels per day was allocated to move crude from the Bakken in North Dakota southward.
The argument was not that Keystone XL: See Juliet Eilperin and Steven Mufson, “State Department Releases Keystone XL Final Environmental Impact Statement,” Washington Post, January 31, 2014, www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/state-to-release-keystones-final-environmental-impact-statement-friday/2014/01/31/3a9bb25c-8a83-11e3-a5bd-844629433ba3_story.html.
multiple State Department assessments: For the final State Department environmental impact statement, see United States Department of State Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, “Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement for the Keystone XL Project: Executive Summary,” Applicant for Presidential Permit: Trans Canada Keystone Pipeline, LLC, January, 2014, https://keystonepipeline-xl.state.gov/documents/organization/221135.pdf.
President Obama might have: See Scott Brown, “Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Says Kinder Morgan Pipeline Part of Canada’s Climate Plan,” Vancouver Sun, December 20, 2016, http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/trudeau-says-kinder-morgan-pipeline-part-of-governments-climate-plan.
Yet, President Obama’s words: President Barack Obama, “Statement by the President on the Keystone XL Pipeline,” The White House Office of the Press Secretary, November 6, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/11/06/statement-president-keystone-xl-pipeline.
But after a tense 2011: Ibid.
Neither Harper nor his cabinet: Harper expressed his “profound disappointment” to President Obama when he heard of the application’s rejection. He told President Obama that Canada will “continue to work to diversify its energy exports.” “Harper Builds Oil Link with China After Obama Keystone ‘Slap,’ ” Bloomberg, January 25, 2012, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-01-25/harper-builds-oil-links-with-china-after-obama-slap-on-keystone-pipeline. Similarly, Canadian natural resource minister Joe Oliver told reporters that the “decision by the Obama administration underlines the importance of diversifying and expanding our markets, including the growing Asian market.” Theophilis Arigitis and Jeremy Loon, “Obama’s Keystone Denial Prompts Canada to Focus on China,” Bloomberg, January 19, 2012, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-01-19/canada-pledges-to-sell-oil-to-asia-after-obama-rejects-keystone-pipeline.
As former U.S. ambassador: Gordon Giffin, in-person conversation with author, Montreal, Canada, November 8, 2014.
Numerous pipeline proposals have: Alistair MacDonald and Paul Vieira, “Canada’s Own Oil Pipeline Problem,” Wall Street Journal, April 19, 2015, www.wsj.com/articles/canadas-own-oil-pipeline-problem-1429479110; Kai Nagata, “Is Northern Gateway Dead?,” The Tyee, April 13, 2015, http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/04/13/Northern-Gateway-Dead/.
Meanwhile, without the full participation: Given the natural gas wealth in the United States, the continent could easily still be self-sufficient should Canada find a way to move more of its natural gas (as opposed to its oil) to Asian markets.
In 2013, shortly before: Dolia Estevez, “Mexican Leftist Leader López Obrador Warns ExxonMobil: Investing In Mexico’s Oil ‘Tantamount To Piracy,’ ” Forbes Magazine, November 12, 2013, https://www.forbes.com/sites/doliaestevez/2013/11/12/mexican-leftist-leader-lopez-obrador-warns-exxonmobil-investing-in-mexicos-oil-tantamount-to-piracy/#d620c424af71; David Alire Garcia, “In third bid to lead Mexico, fiery leftist puts oil reform in crosshairs,” Reuters, August 12, 2016, www.reuters.com/article/uk-Mexico-politics-energy-idUKKCN10N1ZQ.
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