Howard Rogers, a scholar at the Oxford Institute: Howard Rogers, “The Forthcoming LNG Supply Wave: A Case of ‘Crying Wolf’?” (Energy Insight: 4, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, University of Oxford, Oxford, U.K., February 2017), 8-9, https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/The-Forthcoming-LNG-Supply-Wave-OIES-Energy-Insight.pdf.
Yet over the course: For instance, a contentious piece of legislation in Colorado would introduce significant setback provisions that some see as effective bans on fracking. See John Fryer, “Oil, gas school setbacks bill clears Colorado House in party-line vote, “Longmont Times-Call, March 29, 2017, www.timescall.com/longmont-local-news/ci_30887589/colorado-house-approves-lafayette-rep-mike-footes-oil.
Yet, he did express concern to me: The major environmental impacts of which Deutch spoke are air quality, water quality, community impact, land use, and induced seismicity. John Deutch, in-person conversation with author, Cambridge, MA, April 19, 2017. Confirmed via John Deutch, e-mail message to author, April 20, 2017.
Just ask the residents of Sparks: John Daly, “U.S. Government Confirms Link Between Earthquakes and Hydraulic Fracturing,” Oilprice.com, November 8, 2011, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/U.S.-Government-Confirms-Link-Between-Earthquakes-and-Hydraulic-Fracturing.html. Also see National Research Council et al., Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies (Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press, 2013).
Or solicit the views of Hugh Fitzsimons: Kate Galbraith, “As Fracking Increases, So Do Fears About Water Supply,” New York Times, March 7, 2013, www.nytimes.com/2013/03/08/us/as-fracking-in-texas-increases-so-do-water-supply-fears.html?pagewanted=all.
Or you may wish to talk: John Fryar, “Weld County Resident Says Fracking Is Costing Him Sleep,” Times-Call Local News, August 16, 2014, www.timescall.com/longmont-local-news/ci_26350144/weld-county-resident-says-fracking-is-costing-him.
Or even chat with the residents: Abrahm Lustgarten, “Feds Warn Residents Near Wyoming Gas Drilling Sites Not to Drink Their Water,” ProPublica, September 1, 2010, www.propublica.org/article/feds-warn-residents-near-wyoming-gas-drilling-sites-not-to-drink-their-water.
There is certainly room to remove: For instance, deregulation makes sense where federal regulation duplicate state regulation of fracking.
Halliburton claims it can create: Patrick J. Kiger, “Green Fracking? 5 Technologies for Cleaner Shale Energy,” National Geographic, March 21, 2014, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2014/03/140319-5-technologies-for-greener-fracking/.
Others have started to use: Roger Real Drouin, “On Fracking Front, a Push to Reduce Leaks of Methane,” Yale Environment 360, April 7, 2014, http://e360.yale.edu/mobile/feature.msp?id=2754.
The report’s bottom line: Secretary of Energy Advisory Board, Shale Gas Production Subcommittee Second Ninety Day Report (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy, November 18, 2011), https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/90day_Report_Second_11.18.11.pdf.
Other organizations such as the IEA: See International Energy Agency, Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas: World Energy Outlook Special Report on Unconventional Gas (Paris: OECD Publishing, November 12, 2012), www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2012/goldenrules/weo2012_goldenrulesreport.pdf; “Performance Standards,” Center for Responsible Shale Development, April 7, 2016, http://www.responsibleshaledevelopment.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Performance-Standards-v.-1.4-2.pdf.
Concerns that the implementation: Some technological innovations will be more expensive to deploy. For instance, David Burnett, a professor at Texas A&M, estimates that producing shale gas with waterless fracking could be 25 percent more expensive. (Waterless fracking, however, is not considered among the “best practices” as the technology is still nascent.) This number, however, is likely to fall as the technologies are perfected—and could seem less burdensome if policy changes increased the now extremely low cost of freshwater in many states. See Patrick J. Kiger, “Green Fracking? 5 Technologies for Cleaner Shale Energy.”
In a 2016 presentation: Michael Porter, “Realizing America’s Unconventional Energy Opportunity” (presentation, GLOBE 2016, Vancouver, March 3, 2016), Slide 12.
A drive to keep oil and gas: For an interesting preliminary study that concludes the costs of air pollution and CO2 emissions are significantly greater for rail than pipeline, see Karen Clay et al., “Economics and Externalities of Moving Crude Oil by Pipelines and Railroads: Evidence From the Bakken Formation” (presentation, American Economic Association, Chicago, IL, January 8, 2017).
Moreover, whereas some deregulation: See “Innovation through Regulation,” Economist, June 2, 2009, www.economist.com/node/13766329.
In a world increasingly cognizant: See, for example, Trefor Moss, “Ford to Make Electric Cars in China Amid Green Drive,” Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ford-to-make-electric-cars-in-china-amid-green-drive-1491475032.
Several U.S. companies: Many companies favor a tax on carbon in order to provide certainty around investment decisions. Tim Puko, “Big Oil Steps Up Support for Carbon Tax,” Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-oil-steps-up-support-for-carbon-tax-1497931202.
Some environmentalist groups—such as: The Environmental Defense Fund openly states that part of its ability to make an impact depends on its partnerships with corporate actors. See “Partnerships: The Key to Scalable Solutions,” Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), https://www.edf.org/approach/partnerships.
Eight: Europe:—Catching a Break
Calling European sanctions: See video of “Brussels Forum: Europe in Transition,” YouTube, 1:10:25, posted by “GermanMarshallFund,” March 21, 2014, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9zTuJ4piGM.
Foremost among them was the fact: Some claim that Kosovo was another instance of changing borders through force. For a good exposition of the differences, see David L. Phillips, “Crimea Is Not Kosovo,” World Post, March 10, 2014, www.huffingtonpost.com/david-l-phillips/crimea-is-not-kosovo_b_4936365.html.
This view prevailed among many: Russia has been able to wield influence by providing certain countries with advantageous pricing, so the threat of normal market pricing is a real and potent one. This has largely been the case with Ukraine in the crises of 2006 and 2009, when Russia decided that pro-Western political events in Kiev removed the rationale for Russia to continue to provide low-cost gas to Ukraine. Disputes over raising the price led Russia to suspend gas supply to Ukraine. In 2009, Gazprom—frustrated by Ukraine’s siphoning off of gas intended for other countries—stopped supply to the rest of Europe for thirteen days given that 80 percent of Russian gas heading to Europe transited Ukraine at the time.
Many argued that these crises: See “Remarks by Paolo Scaroni,” Chief Executive Officer, Eni, Delivered at CERA Week, Houston, TX, March 7, 2010. https://www.eni.com/en_IT/attachments/media/news/speech_Scaroni%20.pdf.
In a regretful tone, Putin explained: See “Message from the President of Russia to the Leaders of Several European Countries,” President of Russia, April 10, 2014, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20751.
Russian gas accounted for a third: If Turkey is included, this percentage is even higher. BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016, 23–28, http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2016/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2016-full-report.pdf.
Instead, for years, the energy focus: For a full exploration of the evolution of the “securitization” of Europe’s energy policy, see Svein S. Andersen, Andreas Goldthau, and Nick Sitter, eds., Energy Union: Europe’s New Liberal Mercantilism? (London: Palgrave, 2017).
New reverse-flow pipeline capabilities: At the time, Ukraine was able to import 5 percent of its consumption through these countries. BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016, 23, http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2016/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2016-full-report.pdf; Frank Umbach, “The Energy Dimensions o
f Russia’s Annexation of Crimea,” NATO Review Magazine, May 27, 2014, www.nato.int/docu/review/2014/nato-energy-security-running-on-empty/Ukraine-energy-independence-gas-dependence-on-Russia/EN/index.htm.
For instance, the Nabucco Pipeline: See also Friedel Taube, “Nabucco Pipeline Future Uncertain as Hungary Backs Russian Rival,” Deutsche Welle, April 26, 2012, www.dw.de/nabucco-pipeline-future-uncertain-as-hungary-backs-russian-rival/a-15910599.
In the trio of priorities: At the national level, not all European countries have ranked energy security last. As indicated later in the chapter, European countries have very different levels of import dependence and consequently different national priorities.
In the words of Richard Morningstar: Richard Morningstar, in-person conversation with author, Abu Dhabi, UAE, January 12, 2017.
Reagan dismissed the ongoing détente: Richard C. Thornton, The Reagan Revolution II: Rebuilding the Western Alliance (Bloomington, IN: Trafford Publishing, 2006), 142–44.
Even more telling is the proposed: As of mid-2017, the list of proposed concessions by Gazprom is out for comment among European states. Some, such as Lithuania and Poland, are urging the EU to take an even tougher stance against Gazprom. See Natalia Drozdiak, “EU Regulator to Test Gazprom’s Antitrust Remedies in Eastern Europe,” Wall Street Journal, March 13, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-regulator-to-test-gazproms-antitrust-remedies-in-eastern-europe-1489404872; Simone Tagliapietra, “The EU antitrust case: no big deal for Gazprom,” Bruegel, March 15, 2017, bruegel.org/2017/03/the-eu-antitrust-case-no-big-deal-for-gazprom/.
Under the proposed settlement: In the absence of a settlement, the fines imposed on Gazprom could amount to as much as 10 percent of its global annual turnover. Tagliapietra, “The EU antitrust case: no big deal for Gazprom.”
For years, Ukraine depended on: This proportion varied from two-thirds to nearly all of Ukraine’s gas imports. BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016, http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/excel/energy-economics/statistical-review-2016/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2016-workbook.xlsx; Leonid Bershidsky, “How Ukraine Weaned Itself Off Russian Gas,” Bloomberg, January 12, 2016, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-01-12/how-ukraine-weaned-itself-off-russian-gas.
But, thanks to gas market reforms: Tim Daiss, “Ukraine Celebration: One Year Without Russian Gas,” Forbes, November 27, 2016, https://www.forbes.com/sites/timdaiss/2016/11/27/ukraine-celebration-one-year-without-russian-gas/#7d7d34f462f4; Roman Olearchyk, “Ukrainians will finally feel benefit of reforms this year, says PM,” Financial Times, April 5, 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/80e6b64a-1927-11e7-9c35-0dd2cb31823a.
“Gas is so abundant now”: Andriy Kobolyer, in-person conversation with author, Kiev, Ukraine, October 17, 2016.
The U.S. EIA estimated: The U.S. Energy Information Administration looked at eleven European countries and estimated them to hold 470 tcf of shale gas or 6.5 percent of the global shale gas reserves estimated in 2013. Shale gas in Ukraine would add another 128 tcf, or 1.8 percent of estimated global shale reserves. Russia holds 287 tcf, according to this source. These figures refer to unproved resources, meaning they cannot necessarily be produced commercially with today’s technology. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy, June 2013), 6–7, www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdf.
A 2013 study by Germany’s Federal Institute: Andreas Bahr et al., BGR Energy Study 2013: Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources (Hannover: Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources [BGR], December 2013), 39, www.bgr.bund.de/EN/Themen/Energie/Downloads/energiestudie_2013_en.pdf;jsessionid=04547424D826C776449087E66D430EB4.1_cid284?__blob=publicationFile&v=2.
If all European countries: International Energy Agency, Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas: World Energy Outlook Special Report on Unconventional Gas (Paris: OECD Publishing, November 12, 2012), 130, www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2012/goldenrules/weo2012_goldenrulesreport.pdf.
This latter number is impressive: In 2016, Europe (including Turkey) imported 166 bcm or 5.9 tcf of natural gas from Russia. BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017, 34, http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2017/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2017-full-report.pdf.
International investors flocked: Andrew Kureth, “Polish Shale Gas Hits a Dry Well,” Politico, June 16, 2015, www.politico.eu/article/polish-shale-gas-hits-a-dry-well/.
government awarded more than ninety: “Exxon to Start Fracking 2nd Polish Shale Gas,” Reuters, September 28, 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/poland-shale-exxon-idUSL5E7KS0QK20110928; Neil Buckley, “Eastern European shale exploration on ice as boom turns to bust,” Financial Times, October 28, 2015, https://www.ft.com/content/72a0fbd4-7cae-11e5-a1fe-567b37f80b64.
Yet, in March 2012, the Polish Geological Institute: In 2013, the U.S. Energy Information Administration assessed—based on historical factors, rather than new exploration—that Poland had as much as 146 tcf of shale gas reserves. “World Shale Resource Assessments,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 24, 2015, https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/. The Polish Geological Institute estimated this amount to be between 12.2 tcf and 27.1 tcf. See Polish Geological Institute National Research Institute, Assessment of Shale Gas and Shale Oil Resources of the Lower Paleozoic Baltic-Podlasie-Lublin Basin in Poland (Warsaw: Polish Geological Institute, March 2012), 5, https://www.pgi.gov.pl/en/docman-dokumenty-pig-pib/docman/aktualnosci-2012/zasoby-gazu/769-raport-en/file.html.
One executive from a major U.S.: Buckley, “Eastern European Shale Exploration on Ice as Boom Turns to Bust.”
Far from turning Poland: Ibid.
In Austria, simply complying: Brad Plumer, “How Long Before Fracking Spreads to Europe? A Decade, at Least,” Washington Post, February 7, 2013, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/02/07/will-fracking-ever-spread-to-europe-maybe-in-a-decade/.
As described by Oxford scholar: Jonathan Stern, “The Future of Gas in Decarbonising European Energy Markets: The Need for a New Approach” (The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Oxford University, U.K., January 2017), 2–4, https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/The-Future-of-Gas-in-Decarbonising-European-Energy-Markets-the-need-for-a-new-approach-NG-116.pdf.
France, Belgium, the Netherlands: Brigitte Osterath, “What Ever Happened with Europe’s Fracking Boom?,” Deutsche Welle, July 20, 2016, www.dw.com/en/what-ever-happened-with-europes-fracking-boom/a-18589660.
Germany has moved to the left: Critics of the new law have been largely from the left, arguing that the ban is more of a “fracking permission” law than the ban they desire. “Die Beschlüsse des Bundestages vom 12. bis 14. Dezember,” Deutscher Bundestag, December 14, 2012, https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2012/42036947_kw50_angenommen_abgelehnt/210232; “Bundestag beschließt weitgehendes Fracking-Verbot,” Zeit Online, June 24, 2016, www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2016-06/erdgasfoerderung-fracking-bundestag-verbot.
Restrictions exist on fracking: “RPT-Opposition, Disappointing Data Wither Europe’s Shale Gas Prospects,” Reuters, February 3, 2015, www.reuters.com/article/europe-shalegas-idUSL6N0VD1NE20150203.
Long before there was talk: Fiona Harvey, “Russia’s ‘Secretly Working with Environmentalists to Oppose Fracking,’ ” Guardian, June 19, 2014, www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/19/russia-secretly-working-with-environmentalists-to-oppose-fracking; Arthur Herman, “Is Russia Funding Europe’s Anti-fracking Green Protests?,” Hudson Institute, July 21, 2014, www.hudson.org/research/10461-is-russia-funding-europe-s-anti-fracking-green-protests-.
Given Europe’s current trajectory, no rational actor: International Energy Agency, Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas: World Energy Outlook. Special Report on Unconventional Gas (Paris: OECD Publ
ishing, November 12, 2012), www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2012/goldenrules/weo2012_goldenrulesreport.pdf.
In fact, even in the most optimistic: Imports go up in part because gas is cheaper, generating more demand. See ibid., 129.
She declared, “The liquefied: “Lithuania Welcomes ‘Game Changing’ LNG Vessel,” LNG Industry, October 27, 2014, www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/27102014/Lithuania-welcomes-FSRU-Independence-1675/.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry: Georgi Kantchev, “With U.S. Gas, Europe Seeks Escape from Russia’s Energy Grip, Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2016, www.wsj.com/articles/europes-escape-from-russian-energy-grip-u-s-gas-1456456892; “Let There Be Gas!,” Baltic Times, November 5, 2014, www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/35728/.
Secretary Kerry’s letter did not specifically: “U.S. Secretary John Kerry Congratulates Lithuania on LNG Terminal Opening,” Embassy of the United States, Vilnius, Lithuania, October 27, 2013, http://vilnius.usembassy.gov/press_releases/2014/10/27/2014--u.s.-secretary-john-kerrys-congratulates-lithuania-on-lng-terminal-opening.
Just seven months earlier: John Boehner, “Counter Putin by Liberating U.S. Natural Gas,” Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2014, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303824204579421024172546260.
Four foreign ambassadors: “In Response to Russian Aggression, Key Central European Nations Plead for U.S. Natural Gas Exports,” Speaker Boehner’s Press Office, March 8, 2014, www.speaker.gov/press-release/response-russian-aggression-key-central-european-nations-plead-us-natural-gas-exports.
Most analysts scoffed: See, for example, Steve Mufson, “Boehner’s plan to save Ukraine: It’s full of gas,” Washington Post, March 7, 2014, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/03/07/boehners-plan-to-save-ukraine-its-full-of-gas/?utm_term=.82520b1125b1.
Yet, in the years since: “Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdd.htm.
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