But also critical were new arrangements: These arrangements were first enshrined in an interim constitution known as the Transitional Administrative Law and later became part of Iraq’s permanent constitution. The 17 percent was supposed to be roughly in accord with the percentage of the Iraqi population that was Kurdish. Certain sovereign expenditures were first to be deducted from the overall revenues; 17 percent of the remaining amount was to then flow to the Kurdish region. See Coalition Provisional Authority, “Law Of Administration For The State Of Iraq For The Transitional Period,” March 8, 2004, www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/iraq/tal.htm; “Full Text of Iraqi Constitution,” Washington Post, October 12, 2005, www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/12/AR2005101201450.html.
While assurances of a significant portion: These fears appeared borne out when Baghdad decided to discontinue these transfers to Erbil once it started to export oil; the logic was that the revenues of these exports should be transferred to Baghdad for general redistribution as was the case with other Iraqi revenues, but on the whole, they were not. For more on recent events, see “Kurdish divisions spill over into federal politics,” Economist Intelligence Unit, September 27, 2016; Yaroslav Trofimov, “Battle for Mosul Resets Ties Between Kurds and Baghdad,” Wall Street Journal, November 3, 2016, https://www.wsj.com/articles/battle-for-mosul-resets-ties-between-kurds-and-baghdad-1478165405.
In spring of 2014, sipping a glass: Ashti Hawrami, in-person conversation with author, Erbil, Iraq, March 30, 2014.
With oil prices north of $100: David and Marina Ottaway posited in 2014—before the price plunge—“by the time Kurdish oil exports reach 450,000 barrels a day, perhaps as soon as the end of this year, Kurdistan will be earning enough to replace what it receives from Baghdad, which was $12 billion last year [2013].” Marina Ottaway and David Ottaway, “How the Kurds Got Their Way: Economic Cooperation and the Middle East’s New Borders,” Foreign Affairs, May 1, 2014, www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141216/marina-ottaway-and-david-ottaway/how-the-kurds-got-their-way.
The Iraqi government even enlisted: Laurel Brubaker Calkins, “Iraq Allowed to Sue Kurds over Texas Oil Tanker in U.S.,” Bloomberg, January 8, 2015, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-09/iraq-allowed-to-sue-kurds-over-texas-oil-tanker-in-u-s-1-.
Iraq could no longer send: The pipeline itself became inoperable in March 2014 due to repeated attacks. “Iraq Faces Up to Export Undershoot,” Middle East Economic Survey 57, no. 44 (October 31, 2014): 14.
The push for Kurdish independence from Baghdad: See Mahmut Bozarslan, “Will Kurds finally vote for an independent Kurdistan?” Al-Monitor, April 7, 2017, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/04/turkey-iraqi-kurdistan-independence-voting.html#ixzz4gzrReqx8; Omar Sattar, “Could Kurds hold independence referendum this year?” Al-Monitor, April 10, 2017.
Together, the two fields are believed: Tamar and Leviathan are believed to hold 10 tcf and 22 tcf respectively. The comparison with the U.S. National Petroleum Reserves is based on the amount of reserves that would be extracted when the price of natural gas is close to $8 per mnbtu. “USGS Sees 18–32 Tcf Recoverable in NPR-Alaska,” Oil & Gas Journal, May 5, 2011, www.ogj.com/articles/2011/05/usgs-sees-18-32-tcf.html; “Noble Energy Sells Three Percent Interest in Tamar Field, Offshore Israel, for $369 Million,” Noble Energy, July 5, 2016, investors.nblenergy.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=978097.
Despite threats from Hezbollah: Associated Press, “Hezbollah Warns Israel Against ‘Stealing’ Gas from Lebanon,” Haaretz, July 27, 2011, http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/hezbollah-warns-israel-against-stealing-gas-from-lebanon-1.375518.
After working through a range: “Israel: Leviathan FID Set for 4Q 2016. Development Concept Revealed,” OffshoreEnergyToday.com, February 25, 2016, www.offshoreenergytoday.com/israel-leviathan-fid-set-for-4q-2016-development-concept-revealed/.
Turkey was once Israel’s closest ally: Gulsen Solaker and Jonny Hogg, “Turkish PM Erdogan Says Israel ‘Surpasses Hitler in Barbarism,’ ” Reuters, July 19, 2014, http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-israel-turkey-travel-idUKKBN0FO0XD20140719.
In a telephone call orchestrated: Jodi Rudoren and Mark Landler, “With Obama as Broker, Israelis and Turkey End Dispute,” New York Times, March 22, 2013, www.nytimes.com/2013/03/23/world/middleeast/president-obama-israel.html.
It was not until a 2016 meeting: Oddly, while the elements of the agreement were finalized in Rome, the agreement was actually signed separately and announced by the two prime ministers in two different locations. See Barak Ravid, “Israel and Turkey Reach Reconciliation Deal; Formal Announcement Postponed Until Monday,” Haaretz, June 26, 2016, http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.727205.
Relations between the two capitals began to thaw: “Russia Halts Turkish Stream Project over Downed Jet,” RT, December 3, 2015, www.rt.com/business/324230-gazprom-turkish-stream-cancellation/.
At the time of the diplomatic agreement: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “PM Netanyahu’s Statement at His Press Conference in Rome,” Prime Minister’s Office, Rome, Italy, June 27, 2016, www.pmo.gov.il/English/MediaCenter/Speeches/Pages/speechTurkeytreaty270616.aspx.
In September 2016, Jordan’s state-owned: “Jordan Agrees Gas Purchase Deal with Israel,” Economist Intelligence Unit, September 29, 2016, http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1894657373.
Israel had similarly sought to sell: In 2014, the owners of Leviathan had signed a preliminary, non-binding $30bn deal with BG to sell natural gas to supply its LNG terminal in Idku, Egypt. John Reed, “Israel’s Leviathan Partners Target $30bn Supply Deal with BG,” Financial Times, June 29, 2014, https://www.ft.com/content/7a51810a-ff6e-11e3-9a4a-00144feab7de.
Late in the summer of 2015: Christopher Adams, “Eni Discovers ‘Supergiant’ Gasfield Near Egypt,” Financial Times, August 30, 2015, https://www.ft.com/content/899031ec-4f0f-11e5-b029-b9d50a74fd14.
Its absolute population has declined: “Population, Total,” The World Bank, data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=SY.
A video clip filmed by a drone: “Aerial: Drone Footage Shows Total Devastation in Homs, Syria (EXCLUSIVE),” YouTube, 1:55, posted by “RT,” January 20, 2016, www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoRdCbDd50o.
The group had commandeered oil fields: For more details, see Erika Solomon, Robin Kwong, and Steven Bernard, “Inside Isis Inc: The journey of a barrel of oil,” Financial Times, February 29, 2016, ig.ft.com/sites/2015/isis-oil/.
Although Syria itself was never: Before the conflict started, Syrian oil production was down to about 380,000 barrels a day. Ninety-five percent of Syria’s exports went to the European Union; the revenue accounted for 25 percent of overall Syrian revenue.
Russia and Saudi Arabia are the third: These budgets are denominated in 2015 U.S. dollars. SIPRI Military Expenditure Database (Stockholm: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2017), https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/Milex-constant-2015-USD.pdf.
Iran’s official military budget is smaller: Ibid.
The $500 million that the United States: The U.S. defense budget for both years was close to $600 billion (2015 US$), Ibid. For more on the Syrian program, see Michael D. Shear, Helene Cooper, and Eric Schmidt, “Obama Administration Ends Effort to Train Syrians to Combat ISIS,” New York Times, October 9, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/10/world/middleeast/pentagon-program-islamic-state-syria.html?_r=0.
In speaking to the press: Mark Mazzetti, Eric Schmitt, and David D. Kirkpatrick, “Saudi Oil Is Seen as Lever to Pry Russian Support from Syria’s Assad,” New York Times, February 3, 2015, www.nytimes.com/2015/02/04/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-is-said-to-use-oil-to-lure-russia-away-from-syrias-assad.html.
He blamed the rumors on fake news: “No Saudi-Russian Talks to Bump Up Oil Price in Return for Disowning Assad—Moscow,” RT, February 4, 2015, http://rt.com/news/229183-saudi-russia-oil-assad/.
Speaking anonymously, a Saudi diplomat: Mazzetti, Schmitt, and Kirkpatrick, “Saudi Oil Is Seen as Lever to Pry
Russian Support from Syria’s Assad.”
But central government revenues: “Iran’s Economic Outlook, October 2016,” The World Bank, 2016, http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/206581475460660337/Iran-MEM-Fall-2016-ENG.pdf.
For this reason, many Iranians feel: Jonas Siegel, “UMD Poll Reveals That As Benefits From Nuclear Deal Fall Short of Iranian Public’s Expectations, Ahmadinejad Closes In On Rouhani,” University of Maryland, July 15, 2016, https://umdrightnow.umd.edu/news/umd-poll-reveals-benefits-nuclear-deal-fall-short-iranian-publics-expectations-ahmadinejad.
In the words of Ebrahim Mohseni: Barbara Slavin, “New Poll Underlines Iranian Disappointment with US, Nuclear Deal,” Al-Monitor, July 11, 2016, www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/07/iran-new-poll-disappointment-nuclear-deal-jcpoa.html#ixzz4HdpPuuKH.
Whereas some international companies: To offset the effects of these challenges and incentivize foreign oil companies to invest in Iran after the sanctions are lifted, the Iranian oil ministry created draft contracts that replaced the traditional buy-back provisions with more relaxed terms, going as far as allowing joint ventures with the Iranian National Oil Company, thus providing higher returns and lower investment risks than those the international oil companies would get from Iran’s rivals. See Parisa Hafezi and Jonathan Saul, “Exclusive—Iran Sweetens Oil Contracts to Counter Sanctions and Price Plunge,” Reuters, February 3, 2015, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/03/uk-iran-oil-sanctions-exclusive-idUKKBN0L70G620150203.
Conclusion: From Serendipity to Strategy
Even the Marshall Plan: See David S. Painter, “Oil and the Marshall Plan,” The Business History Review 58, no. 3 (Autumn 1984): 359–83.
In 1990, after years of accusing: Thomas C. Hayes, “Confrontation in the Gulf; The Oilfield Lying Below the Iraq-Kuwait Dispute,” New York Times, September 3, 1990, www.nytimes.com/1990/09/03/world/confrontation-in-the-gulf-the-oilfield-lying-below-the-iraq-kuwait-dispute.html.
In 2013, National Security Advisor: “Remarks by Tom Donilon, National Security Advisor to the President, at the Launch of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy,” The White House, April 24, 2013, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/04/24/remarks-tom-donilon-national-security-advisor-president-launch-columbia-.
Similarly, the National Security Strategy: National Security Strategy, The White House, February 2015, 16, https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2015_national_security_strategy.pdf.
For example, the Bipartisan: “Geopolitics of Lifting the Crude Oil Export Ban,” Bipartisan Policy Center, September 2015, http://cdn.bipartisanpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/BPC-Energy-Crude-Oil-Export-Ban-Geopolitics.pdf.
In 2007, the U.S. government: “Annual Energy Outlook 2007,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, 200, www.eia.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo07/pdf/0383(2007).pdf.
Absent the new energy abundance: According to the EIA, the all-time high of U.S. net crude imports was 11.6 mnb/d in 2006. “International Energy Statistics,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/#/?pa=0000000000000400000000000000000000vg0000000000c&tl_id=5-A&c=000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000002&ct=0&f=A&s=&cy=2015&start=1980&end=2015&vs=INTL.55-1-USA-TBPD.A~INTL.57-3-USA-TBPD.A&ug=g&tl_type=p&v=T.
In his book, A World: Richard N. Haass, A World in Disarray (New York: Penguin Press, 2017).
Imagine, therefore, how much harder: Robert B. Zoellick has written and spoken extensively about the fundamental link between economic and national security. See, for example, “Economics & Security in American Foreign Policy: Back to the Future?,” an address at the John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, October 2, 2012.
As this program fizzles out: Even before the price plunge, the Obama administration launched a task force to examine how the United States could help Caribbean states increase their energy security and sustainability; these efforts can and should be accelerated and augmented. See David L. Goldwyn and Cory R. Gill, “The Waning of Petrocaribe? Central American and Caribbean Energy in Transition,” The Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, May 2016, http://publications.atlanticcouncil.org/Petrocaribe/petrocaribe.pdf.
For the decade ahead: For more on the Thucydides trap, see Graham T. Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017).
The days that Steve Coll: See Steve Coll, Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power (New York: Penguin Press, 2012).
This is the case as: See “China’s Cheaper Coal Seen Slowing Switch to Cleaner Natural Gas,” Bloomberg, May 19, 2016, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-19/china-s-cheaper-coal-seen-slowing-switch-to-cleaner-natural-gas.
As of April 2017: “World Economic Outlook, April 2017: Gaining Momentum?” International Monetary Fund, April 2017, 15, www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2017/April/pdf/text.ashx?la=en.
BP’s Energy Outlook 2035: BP, BP Energy Outlook: 2016 edition, 75, https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook-2016/bp-energy-outlook-2016.pdf.
In 2000, George Mitchell: Joseph W. Kutchin, How Mitchell Energy & Development Corp. Got Its Start and How It Grew: An Oral History and Narrative Overview (Boca Raton, FL: Universal Publishers, 2001), 86–87.
Index
A note about the index: The pages referenced in this index refer to the page numbers in the print edition. Clicking on a page number will take you to the ebook location that corresponds to the beginning of that page in the print edition. For a comprehensive list of locations of any word or phrase, use your reading system’s search function.
3-D seismic data, 22
Abdullah, Crown Prince, 261
Abdullah, King, 260, 266
Abe, Shinzo, 67–68, 125
Abu Dhabi, 267
Abu Ghraib prison abuses, 129
Acheson, Dean, 131
Afghanistan, x, 120, 121, 129, 253
Africa, 47, 49, 72, 132, 229–34, 236–37 (see also specific countries)
al Qaeda, 256
Alaska oil, 31
Alberta, Canada, 98–99, 101
Algeria, 24, 47, 118
Ali Jafari, Mohammad, 245
Alkhabeer Capital, 268
Allison, Graham, 238
Altai project, 202, 203, 207
Alvarez, Jorge, 115
Amenam-Kpono, Nigeria, 22
“America First” approach, 105
American Life, An (Reagan), 108–9
American Petroleum Institute, 43
American Securities and Exchange Commission, 99
Americans for Energy Independence, 90
Andropov, Yuri, 197
Angola, 4, 5, 233
Aniversario de la Expropriación Petrolera, 96
antipiracy patrols, 246
antiwar rallies, 116
Apache, 160
Aqaba, Jordan, 74
Arab Gas Pipeline, 74
Arab-Israeli War (1973), 196
Arab oil embargo (1967), 66
Arab oil embargo (1973), 26, 30, 66, 85, 86, 92, 133, 263, 284
Arab political revolutions, 30, 112, 189, 265, 266, 297–98
Arctic shelf, 22
Are We Entering a Golden Age of Gas? (IEA), 69, 70, 153
Argentina, 16, 47, 48, 70, 73, 118, 148
Armenia, 209
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summits, 103, 242
Asia Vision (tanker), 72
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIB), 134, 205, 235, 240
Aslund, Anders, 255
Asquith, H. H., 249
al-Assad, Bashar, 1, 195, 279
Atlantic, The, 54
Australia, 48, 66, 71, 73, 75, 206, 227, 281
Austria, 171
automobile industry, 52, 88, 284
Azerbaijan, 167
El-Badri, Abdalla Salem, 3, 57
al-Baghdadi, Abu Bakr, 250–51
Bahrain, 254, 263, 265, 267–70
Baker, James, 254
Baker Institute, Rice University, 96
Bakken, North Dakota, 22, 24
Baku oil fields, Russia, 117, 283
Balfour, Arthur, 249–50
Bandar bin Sultan, Prince, 261–62
Barents Sea, 200
Barnett Shale, 20–22
batteries, 52, 53, 304
Belarus, 209
Belfer, Bob, 48
Belgium, 171
Belova, Maria, 53
Berdyaev, Nikolai, 194
Berdymukhamedov, Gurbanguly, 208
BHP Billinton, 98
Big River Steel, 111
Birol, Fatih, 50, 134
Blade Runner movies, 45
Blair, Tony, 16
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), 53
Boehner, John, 174, 175
Bolivarian Revolution, 284
Bolivia, 37
Bolsheviks, 183
boom-and-bust cycles, 41, 43
Borneo, x
BP, 26, 29, 50–52, 75, 146, 304
Brandt, Adam, 149
Brazil, 27, 32, 35, 72, 136, 144
carbon emissions and, 156
discovery of oil reserves in, 144
breakeven oil prices, 29, 35, 39, 62, 266–68
Bretton Woods system, 134
Brezhnev, Leonid, 190, 197
Brodie, Bernard, 109
Brookings Institution, The, 83, 93, 112
Brown, Gordon, 59
Buffett, Warren, 109
Bulgaria, 48, 66, 140, 166, 171
Bush, George H. W., 143, 256, 259
on energy independence, 84
Saudi Arabia and, 261–62
Bush, George W., 87, 143
on energy independence, 84
Iranian sanctions and, 124
Iraq War and, 116
Butler, Nick, 58–59, 62
Calderón, Felipe, 96
Calgary, Alberta, 98–99
Canada, 7, 18, 32, 35, 47, 72, 73, 84, 95, 118, 257, 288, 293
global oil reserve rankings and, 99
natural gas production in, 100
Windfall Page 54