by Vivek Ahuja
“It might be seen as provocation, but remember that they have three times that many troops in Tibet at this time engaged in combat,” Yadav continued as he saw that the Indian leader’s views hadn’t changed from a fundamental standpoint.
“For which they have a just cause. What cause do we have for mobilizing these Divisions?” the PM said.
Chakri shared a look at Yadav in silence and then sighed where he sat in silence.
Cause? How about defending our borders? Does that sound like a good enough cause, you idiot?
Yadav said calmly:
“Defending our borders, sir. That’s a just enough cause, isn’t it?”
TWO MONTHS LATER
day 1
OVER CENTRAL CHINA
DAY 1 + 0000 HRS
Four hundred kilometers above the earth, a lone satellite passed silently over the central Asian landmass. It had been going over similar orbits for weeks. And during each pass, its small but powerful optics focused on the landmass below. The real-time imagery it provided was sharp and revealing. If it was daytime in the region the resulting images were in color. If it was dark, as it was right now, the images were seen through infrared optics. The imagery was used by the personnel of the newly organized Indian Aerospace Command, or IASC, who had been keeping a wary eye on the Chinese military bases in the region.
Trying to, anyway.
But the Indian space assets were stretched thin trying to cover a two thousand kilometer front. And there was never really any hope of monitoring such a large landmass on a real-time basis anyway.
The scarce availability of assets meant that the people at the Aerospace Command had been able to maintain a constant vigil only on select high priority targets. Some of these included PLA units and PLAAF airbases in Tibet. But almost exclusively, the targets of focus had included Chinese missile bases and deployed batteries that were capable of lobbing cruise-missiles and ballistic-missiles at Indian targets. The ballistic-missile arsenal, conventional and nuclear exclusively was under the control of the Chinese 2ND Artillery Corps. Their only Ground-Launched-Cruise-Missile, or GLCM, unit was the 821 Brigade. It was deployed in Tibet as of right now. This was not unexpected. The 821 Brigade was the premier unit operating the CJ-10 “Long-Sword” long-range GLCMs. With a massive two-thousand kilometer range, the Long-Sword missiles could be launched from deep inside Tibet and reach most targets in northern India. It was a real and definitive threat. And the 821 Brigade had deployed about fifteen WS 2400 8x8 Transporter Erector Launcher or TEL vehicles along with over seventy five CJ-10s in northern Tibet over the last month. These units were spread out and highly guarded on the ground against Tibetan rebels by large contingents of PLA forces.
With over half of their GLCM force deployed in Tibet, the 821 Brigade had left their remaining force distributed along the Taiwanese and Korean facing coasts. Such a large force deployed specifically against India was obviously meant to be a threat. And there was a question among the Indian side on whether these missiles had been tasked exclusively for the strategic nuclear role alongside other ballistic-missile brigades or whether they carried conventional warheads.
To make matters worse, there was no Indian counter-force weapon with which New-Delhi could respond. The Indian counterpart to the already deployed Long-Sword missiles was the “Nirbhay” cruise-missile. Unfortunately, it was just now entering the first production run after having finished its development and testing phases. This meant that the Nirbhay was not available to the Indian missile forces, which were currently dependent on the highly lethal, but short-legged “Brahmos” supersonic cruise-missiles. With a range around three-hundred kilometers, it was strictly a tactical weapon relative to the Chinese Long-Sword missiles. It was available, however, in air, sea and ground launched versions, unlike the Chinese counterpart. And when launched from a suitably modified Su-30MKI, the missile could reach deep inside Tibet.
The Chinese also possessed a tactical counterpart to the Brahmos missile. In the past month they had deployed in southern Tibet a large number of YJ-62 subsonic cruise-missiles along with requisite number of launcher vehicles. Indian intelligence had also confirmed the presence of these missiles at Wugong airbase near the Qingling Mountains in central China. This was where a significant number of their H-6 long-range bombers, copies of the Russian Tu-16 Badger, were based. But with ranges under three-hundred kilometers, relatively poor navigation and slow speeds, the YJ-62 missiles were easier to shoot down and its launchers easier to target and eliminate. But it added numbers to the Chinese inventory of Tibet based cruise-missiles.
The Tibet Theater wasn’t the only area of responsibility for the Indian Aerospace Command. The Indian Navy wanted high resolution images of the PLAN shipyards as well. But this was lower in terms of priority compared to the missile units in Tibet. Simply put, even if a Chinese naval force left port and headed for the Indian Ocean, it would still require days before they would get there. On the other hand, the missiles aimed at India from Tibet and central China could hit targets within minutes, and so they demanded regular attention.
Which the Aerospace Command gave them unflinchingly. As the Indian Cartosat satellite, on loan from the ISRO, approached northern Tibet, its optics focused on the pre-specified targets in the region…
“Okay. Here we go,”
The Air-Force Group-Captain in charge of operations at this ungodly hour said to his boss, Air-Vice-Marshal Malhotra. Malhotra was commander of the IASC in Bangalore and reported directly to the Indian Air-Force Air-Headquarters in New-Delhi.
Standing with Malhotra was an Army Colonel, the liaison with the Strategic Forces Command or SFC. Both men were up and awake at this time because RAW HUMINT had confirmed increased levels of activity in 2ND Artillery Corps areas in northern Tibet in the last twenty four hours. They were now watching the large screen in front of them as it showed a geographical reference-grid overlay on the grayish-white infrared view of the satellite in near real-time…
Because of the angle of the view caused by the satellite’s position above the horizon as it passed the target, the view of the 821 Brigade battery in question was being blocked by the mountains nearby. But as the base slid into view beyond the hills the dark gray background was dotted with white puffs throughout the Chinese base. These represented hot regions against the cold winter terrain. Some of these white puffs were more like clouds and seems to be slowly drifting away...
“What the hell!” the Group-Captain exclaimed as he suddenly stood up from his chair, causing it to fall back on the floor. Malhotra’s response was not any calmer:
“Oh shit! The bastards are launching!”
As if on cue, another white flash erupted against the black background causing the satellite’s optics to flare out and readjust the coloration on screen. Within those couple of seconds, a hot white speck leaped into the air from one of the launchers and began moving southwest. The Group-Captain’s team began adjusting the optics and the view zoomed out to try and track the course the missiles were taking. There was no question about it: the missiles were heading south and south-east from Tibet…
Malhotra found a lump in his throat as the implications became clear.
Dear god! They did it! They actually did it!
But there was no time to ponder now. It was time to act.
Malhotra moved decisively even as other struggled to come to terms with the quickness at which things were happening. He moved across the room and picked up the phone. The Colonel from the SFC did the same a second later. The phone calls from both men were answered immediately as they were supposed to be. Malhotra spoke quickly but quietly:
“This is the Commander, Aerospace Command. We are detecting large numbers of launch plumes at cruise-missile bases across northern Tibet. Launches are ongoing at this time with southerly inbounds. I say again, we have in-bound Chinese cruise-missiles. Send out the warning orders to everybody. We are looking at a category-one alpha-strike by China!”
In the operat
ions center outside the conference room, Malhotra’s people were attempting to make sense of things. They were already moving the satellite’s optics to other bases in the region. The same views were detected everywhere. Malhotra completed his call and came back to see his men struggling to handle the vast amount of data pouring in. Luckily a large portion of the processing was being handled by computers. They classified the threats and passed them via satellite communications networks to the SFC and the various IAF air-defense centers via the respective regional commands.
“What’s the count?” Malhotra asked his operations chief once he saw a tally adding up on a second wall-mounted side-screen as the men inside the center added launch locations and numbers to it…
“Hundred plus and still counting,” the Group-Captain reported.
Malhotra took a deep breath and crossed his arms in silence. As they watched their team get to work, the large screen continued to show the slowly dissipating thermal plumes from expended launch tubes of the Chinese launchers…
NEW DELHI
DAY 1 + 0020 HRS
The Prime-Minister looked up from his book as he heard a lot of commotion outside his reading room. He heard voices of men shouting out orders. The voices were familiar to him: his personal security officers from the Special Protection Group or SPG…
The door to his reading room suddenly opened with a thud.
Three men in black suit and ties ran into the room. The Prime-Minister noticed they were armed. His chief security officer was holding his personal sidearm while the two other men had their FN-2000 rifles held in their hands. The SPG commandos found him standing near his personal library of books, looking alarmed and somewhat shocked at the rude and loud entry into the room.
“Sir, please come with us now!” the SPG team-leader spoke urgently.
“What’s going on Sunil?” the PM asked with a shaky voice.
“Sir, no time! We can brief you along the way. There is an Air-Force helicopter approaching the helipad outside in a few minutes to evacuate you and your family! We need you to move!”
The PM was still holding on to the book, unable to grasp what was being barked at him…
“But wait. What..?”
“Now, sir!”
The SPG team-leader grabbed the PM by his arm and nearly forced the confused and somewhat frightened man to move out with them. The two men with rifles led the way as they all walked out. In the other rooms the PM saw other members of the security team leading his family members outside. Once out of the residence and near the helipad, he saw heavily armed members of the SPG were standing guard all around the perimeter. The first sounds of the approaching helicopter were already filling the cold night sky...
“Sunil, I demand to know what the hell is going on!” the PM shouted above the chaotic noises around him from his family, the security personnel and others.
“Sir, all I know is that the Chinese have launched missiles against us. The Air-Force detected the attack and is tracking them now. We have been ordered to evacuate you and other members of government and military to Palam airport from where you will take off on board an Air-Force airborne command aircraft and stay there until the threat is neutralized,” the SPG team-leader responded calmly. They were trained to be calm in exactly these kinds of situations. Both men then looked up as the distinctive three-engine noise of the AW-101 helicopter from the Air-Force HQ Communications Squadron appeared from behind the residence. The grassy field around the small concrete helipad was now being crushed against the downwash of the helicopter blades…
The PM suddenly realized the severity of it all. But it hit him more as a shock than anger:
“My god! But why are they attacking? We have done nothing but been friendly with them. I...” he continued almost to himself.
The SPG team-leader watched in silence as his country’s leader was floundering in front of his eyes even as the country was faced with the threat of nuclear annihilation. He read the newspapers too, and knew that if there was one member in this government that should be saved at all costs tonight, it should be Chakri. The panicking man he saw standing in front of him was clearly in no position to take on China...
“Are they launching nuclear weapons?” the PM asked him, not realizing that the SPG team-leader was not privy to those details beyond what his immediate orders were. The latter man realized that panic had gripped the man in his charge. He forced himself to remain calm.
“We don’t know, sir. That’s why it is extremely important to get you out of here, right now.”
“How much time do we have before the warheads hit Delhi?” the PM continued. Before he could get a response, the AW-101 helicopter was on the ground and the doors had been opened. He pushed the Prime-Minister along and ran over to the open doors of the helicopter. The PM and his family were bundled aboard and the SPG group got in behind them, leaving a contingent around the perimeter to maintain security of the residence. As the air-force sergeant closed the door of the helicopter, the pilot of the helicopter looked back and saw the crucial people on board. He nodded and spoke into his comms mouthpiece as the helicopter lifted off the ground and headed towards Palam airport, gathering speed quickly. The SPG team-leader looked at his watch and nodded. They had just enough time to get the PM out.
Probably… he corrected himself.
THE INDIAN NORTH-EAST
DAY 1 + 0025 HRS
The Chinese had achieved initiative, but had lost surprise. When the Indian Aerospace Command had detected the launches, everybody in that command down from AVM Malhotra knew just how lucky it had been for them to have detected the launches in time. Had they not re-adjusted that satellite’s orbit just a few hours before, they would have completely missed the Chinese launches until after it was too late. The Chinese had timed the launches to correspond to the black-out period of the Indian satellite coverage along orbit paths that they had been using for the last two months. But they hadn’t counted on a change to that path within hours of their planned attack.
So luck had sided with the Indians on that one. But the missiles were still flying their way south…
The klaxons were sounding off on all Indian airbases in the Eastern, Central and Western Air-Commands of the Indian Air-Force. The Chinese cruise-missile tally had been done by the various ISR systems. The final number of detected launches was a staggering one-hundred-seventy-five, including both the Long-Sword missiles and the YJ-62s. The expended Long-Sword TEL vehicles were dispersing already, having no reloads to fire. However the YJ-62 TEL vehicles were moving for a second reload…
For the IAF, the threat was different than the Army. The Chinese cruise-missiles had been launched far to the north of the border with India and this meant that even with the Long-Swords in the mix, chances of hitting southern Indian airbases was low. But preserving aircraft was not the whole picture. An air-force is measured as a system including infrastructure, weapons, aircraft, personnel and morale rather than just aircraft alone. If the northern airbases were lost, the ability of the IAF to preserve aerial density over the battlefield would dissipate down to the level of the PLAAF over Tibet, and that was bad news.
The only thing standing between that and the Chinese missiles was the IAF’s integrated Air-Defense-Ground-Environment-system or ADGES, which was now swinging into action. Surface-to-air missile launchers were now adjusting azimuth towards the likely ingress areas for the Chinese cruise-missiles. Tracking and guidance radars were coming online from Ladakh to Arunachal-Pradesh. Soon enough, they were primed and ready as they looked towards the Himalayan peaks to the north for the threat to pop up into view.
Above New-Delhi, a single Phalcon AWACS continued to climb above the clouds to reach its patrol height while the airborne radar went active. On the ground at Agra, another Phalcon flight-crew from the No. 50 Squadron spooled up the engines of their aircraft for immediate departure. At Kalaikunda airbase far to the east, another No. 50 Squadron Phalcon detachment also took up position at the end of the runw
ay for immediate departure while one indigenous CABS AEW aircraft from the newly organized No. 51 Squadron took to the air in front of them…
HILLS NORTH OF WALONG
ARUNACHAL PRADESH
INDIA
DAY 1 + 0030 HRS
“Awfully quiet,” Colonel Malik said. The peace and serenity in the hills was momentarily broken as two Dhruv helicopters flew overhead and disappeared into the darkness of the valley to the south.
“Yes sir, it is,” Krishnan said as he lowered his binoculars after scanning the peaks to the north. No activity there...
Krishnan looked at his palm and moved his fingers to maintain circulation in the freezing cold weather.
He remembered the day two months ago when he had ambushed the Chinese squad not too far from where he was now. With the warning order having come through a few minutes before, he wondered if today was the day the Chinese would come after his blood. He wondered whether his actions had precipitated the flow of history in any way similar to the way the Chinese ambush of the Indian policemen near Kongka-La in Ladakh, 1959. That event laid the path for a war three years later. Now he wondered if the same was happening again…
The last two months had been filled with vitriolic conversations between Beijing and New-Delhi in light of several border air and ground skirmishes. Tibet was still burning under the armed revolts that Beijing was convinced were being launched from India with tacit support. Krishnan and his men could not tell whether this was true or not. Not that they cared if it was true. Posted to this region, they had seen firsthand the suffering of the Tibetan people under Beijing’s oppressive rule. They had heard the firsthand reports of torture and genocide being perpetrated in and around Lhasa as the PLA attempted to regain control.
And now the Indian military had been put on full alert in the last half hour…